[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[Tucsonadventurer]

We're scheduled to go to Kauai, Maui, Big Island in late Jan/early Feb 2021. At this point, I've pretty much concluded that's not going to happen. If we cancel prior to around Nov 23 (60 days out), we can rebook our weeks, subject to availability, for later in 2021. Since October would be our preferred alternative fall 2021 travel month, I want to have the weeks available at the 12 months window opening, so we'll probably need to make the go/no-go call sometime in early October. I can't imagine things are going to be much different with quarantine/restrictions by then, so I fully expect we won't be going to Hawaii in January . Even if the situation is better in October, I have no confidence that Gov Ige won't reimpose restrictions if cases tick up a bit before January. I don't want our trip hanging on his decisions.

To be honest, even October may be iffy, but rescheduling until then buys us 9 months before we would have to give our weeks to II.

We are in the same boat so would need to cancel by Nov if things aren't better. It is not looking good

 

[davidvel]

One good thing about this pandemic is the education people are getting related to statistics, percentages, and other related issues. It's a bit scary how many people blindly read numbers in headlines, with no clue as to what the numbers mean, or their relativity to "normal." Hopefully all the discussion and debate will help people be more critical thinkers. (Despite those that believe thinking is too much work, and leave it to others.)

 

[Monykalyn]

When the number of cases goes down, they will lift the restrictions and the spread will reignite. Hawaii's directors of Health and Public Safety have stepped down by the way

Directors of Health, Public Safety to step down amid criticism of state’s COVID-19 response

State Health Director Bruce Anderson and Public Safety Director Nolan Espinda will both be leaving their posts in September.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

HOly moly seems a large part of cabinet has "resigned" or "retired".

 

[csodjd]

One good thing about this pandemic is the education people are getting related to statistics, percentages, and other related issues. It's a bit scary how many people blindly read numbers in headlines, with no clue as to what the numbers mean, or their relativity to "normal." Hopefully all the discussion and debate will help people be more critical thinkers. (Despite those that believe thinking is too much work, and leave it to others.)

I wish people would be "critical thinkers" instead of "political thinkers." I don't care if the message is coming from the right or the left, one has to have the ability (and willingness) to see if it makes sense. I'm not seeing much of that anymore, even when it comes to things that need to be entirely apolitical, such as approval of a drug or protocols for testing.

 

[DeniseM]

This thread is reopened for civil discourse - thank you!

 

[DeniseM]

Officials say Hawaii’s health care system is under great stress | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Hawaii hospital officials said Monday that the state’s health care system has been able to handle the state’s COVID-19 surge so far by shifting personnel, recruiting new workers, modifying hospital spaces and working long hours.

www.staradvertiser.com

 

[Theiggy]

My February trip to Ko Olina is hanging on by a thread -like a loose tooth in a kid’s mouth. One twist, and it’s out.


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[csodjd]

Just read that the Four Seasons Resorts on Lanai is furloughing 750. A large portion of the island's employed workers (2/3 according to the article).

 

[controller1]

Just read that the Four Seasons Resorts on Lanai is furloughing 750. A large portion of the island's employed workers (2/3 according to the article).

Here is a link to an article discussing it: https://www.khon2.com/coronavirus/lanai-dealt-huge-economic-blow-with-four-seasons-furloughs/

 

[csodjd]

181 New cases reported today. While that's up from yesterday, yesterday likely reflected lower reporting from Sunday. Both are down considerably from the recent numbers. If the Oahu orders are effective, that 181 should steadily or even rapidly drop, especially as we pass the one-week mark from the orders taking effect (2-3 more days). Though the incubation is reported up to 14 days, most cases occur within about 7.

It is, however, complicated by the huge increase in testing. Nonetheless, if, the testing notwithstanding, the new case numbers drop below 100 by the weekend it will show that the orders worked, and one more week ought to bring the numbers into the controllable range.

Hoping.

4 additional COVID-19 fatalities push death toll from virus in Hawaii to 74

Since Aug. 1, amid a surge in COVID-19 infections on Oahu, Hawaii has seen 48 coronavirus deaths.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[DannyTS]

So we will have to wait a couple more weeks to see if the numbers go to the same level they were 4 weeks ago, before the surge. What will happen after that? I do not see how this perpetual cycle is sustainable.

 

[csodjd]

So we will have to wait a couple more weeks to see if the numbers go to the same level they were 4 weeks ago, before the surge. What will happen after that? I do not see how this perpetual cycle is sustainable.

Well, there are two steps, and both have to happen. The first is getting the numbers down. But that's the easy part. Step two is having a robust testing and tracing program so that the numbers stay down, even as businesses open up. They CAN do that. It just takes the government committing and being competent.

 

[Ken555]

It just takes the government committing and being competent.

Hey, you’re a comedian!


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[jacknsara]

Aloha,

Most of the following is probably irrelevant / TMI other than to support the point of view that the near term is risky. Unless there is a pressing reason to visit Hawaii soon, a prudent approach is to delay trip plans significantly.

I’ve been following this thread all along but have had little technical insight add ( https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/t...i-coronavirus-discussions.304580/post-2456182 ); it has helped me think through our options. We had reservations at KBV and Shearwater for October 2020 (previously rescheduled from earlier in the year) and Feb/March 2021. We love going to Kauai every year; we eat out almost every evening and many lunches. We love being healthy and alive even more. Even if Hawaii opens up for mainlanders without quarantine with clear test results and restaurants are open, we concluded we wouldn’t be comfortable with the risk.

RCI was allowing deposits of the October 2020 weeks. Our RCI membership was due to expire November 2020. Oh well. We renewed RCI and deposited the 2020 weeks. We changed our spring 2021 reservations to October 2021. We also had a HTSE exchange into Kona Coast Resort for December 2020. We cancelled that, lost the exchange fee and paid to extend the deposits eligibility to December 2021. In another month, we will submit our reservation request for Feb/March 2022.

A lot can change between now and late 2021.

Jack

 

[dsmrp]

We just rented a car at HNL airport for 3 days. Amongst the whole bank of rental counters there were only 2 people working. Our agent at Budget only had 1 model of car available in the compact size range.

We got an upgrade to a mid-size, which wasn't too much larger. Even tho' many cars are sidelined at Aloha stadium, the agent said they have few cleaned cars. The rental cars are leased and being shipped back to the leasor on the mainland.

 

[csodjd]

We just rented a car at HNL airport for 3 days. Amongst the whole bank of rental counters there were only 2 people working. Our agent at Budget only had 1 model of car available in the compact size range.

We got an upgrade to a mid-size, which wasn't too much larger. Even tho' many cars are sidelined at Aloha stadium, the agent said they have few cleaned cars. The rental cars are leased and being shipped back to the leasor on the mainland.

At the same time I read an article this morning about the planned reopening of the now Hyatt in Hana, Maui, planned for Oct. 1. So it appears they are at least still planning/hoping for an Oct. 1 reintroduction of trans-Pacific travelers. No doubt that’s a “flexible” plan, and a lot (everything?) will depend on the success or failure of the current shut down and testing over the next 10 days.

 

[csodjd]

Aloha,

Most of the following is probably irrelevant / TMI other than to support the point of view that the near term is risky. Unless there is a pressing reason to visit Hawaii soon, a prudent approach is to delay trip plans significantly.

I’ve been following this thread all along but have had little technical insight add ( https://tugbbs.com/forums/threads/t...i-coronavirus-discussions.304580/post-2456182 ); it has helped me think through our options. We had reservations at KBV and Shearwater for October 2020 (previously rescheduled from earlier in the year) and Feb/March 2021. We love going to Kauai every year; we eat out almost every evening and many lunches. We love being healthy and alive even more. Even if Hawaii opens up for mainlanders without quarantine with clear test results and restaurants are open, we concluded we wouldn’t be comfortable with the risk.

RCI was allowing deposits of the October 2020 weeks. Our RCI membership was due to expire November 2020. Oh well. We renewed RCI and deposited the 2020 weeks. We changed our spring 2021 reservations to October 2021. We also had a HTSE exchange into Kona Coast Resort for December 2020. We cancelled that, lost the exchange fee and paid to extend the deposits eligibility to December 2021. In another month, we will submit our reservation request for Feb/March 2022.

A lot can change between now and late 2021.

Jack

I’d say that there’s plenty of room for reasonable people to not “be comfortable with the risk.” That’s certainly not crazy. I’m sort of a numbers-data-driven guy. I recognize there is always risk. What’s the risk/chance of my plane going down? Eh, pretty small. I’ll take that risk. In the COVID-Hawaii context, and COVID generally, I approach it the same way. I would not attend a rally full of unmasked yelling people. I would not eat inside a restaurant. Those are to me not acceptable risks. But I don’t interact with that many people when in Hawaii. We eat almost entirely outdoors (who goes to Hawaii to be indoors?). Sit on the beach. Sit on the lanai. Play some golf. Etc. When I mix that “do list” with infection rates, everyone on the plane having tested negative, even if infected, about 80-90% chance of minor or no symptoms, I come to a risk I’m willing to take. Other reasonable people may not. That’s okay... just reduces my risk even more.

 

[rickandcindy23]

I’d say that there’s plenty of room for reasonable people to not “be comfortable with the risk.” That’s certainly not crazy. I’m sort of a numbers-data-driven guy. I recognize there is always risk. What’s the risk/chance of my plane going down? Eh, pretty small. I’ll take that risk. In the COVID-Hawaii context, and COVID generally, I approach it the same way. I would not attend a rally full of unmasked yelling people. I would not eat inside a restaurant. Those are to me not acceptable risks. But I don’t interact with that many people when in Hawaii. We eat almost entirely outdoors (who goes to Hawaii to be indoors?). Sit on the beach. Sit on the lanai. Play some golf. Etc. When I mix that “do list” with infection rates, everyone on the plane having tested negative, even if infected, about 80-90% chance of minor or no symptoms, I come to a risk I’m willing to take. Other reasonable people may not. That’s okay... just reduces my risk even more.

I agree completely. If Maui has a quarantine in February, when we go, we will stay in our unit the entire 14 days and will get the negative test befroe leaving, too. I am not changing our trip for a virus that is running a full year by then. We will be there for 5 weeks and 5 days, so 14 days on our lanai is just fine by me. We have friends who will get groceries for us those first two weeks. Then we will be free to go to the store after that. That trip is on!

 

[dsmrp]

I've no doubt that many tourism dependent and non tourism businesses here are anxious and tired of the multiple restriction releases over the last few months. And would like the tourists to return and to get back to business.

Re car rental, get your reservations now when rates are semi-reasonable. Car availability should go down with them being shipped back to mainland. Rental agencies will wait to get next year's new model replacements. I'm speculating the quantities will likely be much lower than they previously had.

 

[controller1]

Car availability should go down with them being shipped back to mainland. Rental agencies will wait to get next year's new model replacements. I'm speculating the quantities will likely be much lower than they previously had.

My concern is arriving at the rental counter and having a replay of the Seinfeld episode!

 

[jabberwocky]

I've no doubt that many tourism dependent and non tourism businesses here are anxious and tired of the multiple restriction releases over the last few months. And would like the tourists to return and to get back to business.

Re car rental, get your reservations now when rates are semi-reasonable. Car availability should go down with them being shipped back to mainland. Rental agencies will wait to get next year's new model replacements. I'm speculating the quantities will likely be much lower than they previously had.

I think with the Hertz bankruptcy there is also a large liquidation of their fleet going on. Those cars are probably being shipped out as well.

 

[rickandcindy23]

Thank you for the reminder. I need to reserve a different car.

I reserved our full-size car through Costco for all five weeks, 5 days, and it was only $1,680 with fees included. That is a bargain for Maui. The Chase UR portal wouldn't allow a car rental for that many weeks.

Now our kids are joining us, so I need to switch it to a car that seats six. I guess a minivan is our next best option.

Funny thing: I reserved a car for the entire time, but in case they don't let us rent a car upon arrival, I also need to reserve a car for 14 days into our trip, in case we have to quarantine in February. If we do have to quarantine, our kids won't come because they won't want to quarantine that week they are with us, so we won't need the minivan at all.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I’d say that there’s plenty of room for reasonable people to not “be comfortable with the risk.” That’s certainly not crazy. I’m sort of a numbers-data-driven guy. I recognize there is always risk. What’s the risk/chance of my plane going down? Eh, pretty small. I’ll take that risk. In the COVID-Hawaii context, and COVID generally, I approach it the same way. I would not attend a rally full of unmasked yelling people. I would not eat inside a restaurant. Those are to me not acceptable risks. But I don’t interact with that many people when in Hawaii. We eat almost entirely outdoors (who goes to Hawaii to be indoors?). Sit on the beach. Sit on the lanai. Play some golf. Etc. When I mix that “do list” with infection rates, everyone on the plane having tested negative, even if infected, about 80-90% chance of minor or no symptoms, I come to a risk I’m willing to take. Other reasonable people may not. That’s okay... just reduces my risk even more.

I understand that you do low risk activiites when in Hawaii so the rise is low. However, I question some of what you said about the plane ride:

- The infection rates are a moving target. They were horrible in NY in March thru May. They are bad in Hawaii right now.
- You said everyone on the plane tested negative. When has that become a criteria?
- I don't understand the statement 89-80% chance of minor or no symptoms?
- The reasonable people that don't go are most probably NOT infected since they are very cautious. The ones that due do are less cautious so that raises your risk not lowers it

 

[Fredflintstone]

I understand that you do low risk activiites when in Hawaii so the rise is low. However, I question some of what you said about the plane ride:

- The infection rates are a moving target. They were horrible in NY in March thru May. They are bad in Hawaii right now.
- You said everyone on the plane tested negative. When has that become a criteria?
- I don't understand the statement 89-80% chance of minor or no symptoms?
- The reasonable people that don't go are most probably NOT infected since they are very cautious. The ones that due do are less cautious so that raises your risk not lowers it

The sad reality is all these precautions are financially killing those who live in Hawaii. I do understand the Covid risks, but the future quarantine rules may have more impact than the disease itself.

Just to illustrate, here’s just one (of many) lineups at Hawaii Food banks...

This one helps illustrate the degree of the problem.

'I Have To Accept Reality': First-Timers Line Up For Foodbank Help

About 4,000 people waited in line more than four hours for desperately needed food. People lined up early because they feared the Hawaii Foodbank would run out and have to turn people away.

www.civilbeat.org

I shutter to think what will happen when the rules remain but the eviction bans ends

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[Tamaradarann]

The sad reality is all these precautions are financially killing those who live in Hawaii. I do understand the Covid risks, but the future quarantine rules may have more impact than the disease itself.

Just to illustrate, here’s just one (of many) lineups at Hawaii Food banks...

I shutter to think what will happen when the rules remain but the eviction bans ends

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