[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[csodjd]

I am not sure I agree with that statement. They are testing 90,000 people but 950,000 live on Oahu so they only test less than 10% of the population. They can still potentially miss a lot of infected people. Yes, they will report a bit more infections but since they test a fraction of the population they will only capture a part of the real number. By testing a lot, the positivity rate will drop significantly and that will be very misleading since it is like shooting in the dark, you will certainly miss more . Of course the lockdown will lower the number of infections in the next couple of weeks but they will not drop to zero so that will resolve nothing since the numbers can go back up in no time once they lift the restrictions. IMO they should just be straight and tell both locals and visitors what to expect: before a good chunk of the population gets the vaccine, Hawaii will not open. If they open before they will look like fools since they could have done it already by now.

There won’t be a Hawaii to open if it remains closed for another 6-12 months. The supporting businesses will be gone. Restaurants will be gone. Employees will be gone. And the state may well be in a full-scale depression with 20-30% unemployment and widespread poverty. I don’t think closure for a year from now is an option.

Those with symptoms get tested in all likelihood. What the data is picking up are those that are infected but not showing symptoms.

You are right, the numbers can go back up when they lift the restrictions IF they don’t change anything. But the numbers will be managed and kept down if they have a good testing and contact tracing program. Closing down, then reopening, without that is a waste of time.

 

[DannyTS]

There won’t be a Hawaii to open if it remains closed for another 6-12 months. The supporting businesses will be gone. Restaurants will be gone. Employees will be gone. And the state may well be in a full-scale depression with 20-30% unemployment and widespread poverty. I don’t think closure for a year from now is an option.

Those with symptoms get tested in all likelihood. What the data is picking up are those that are infected but not showing symptoms.

You are right, the numbers can go back up when they lift the restrictions IF they don’t change anything. But the numbers will be managed and kept down if they have a good testing and contact tracing program. Closing down, then reopening, without that is a waste of time.

Is there any evidence that before they were not testing people with symptoms due to the lack of capacity? I guess not. If they were testing everyone who wanted to be tested, the surge in testing will bring mostly people without symptoms and people who do not need to be tested.

 

[csodjd]

Is there any evidence that before they were not testing people with symptoms due to the lack of capacity? I guess not. If they were testing everyone who wanted to be tested, the surge in testing will bring mostly people without symptoms and people who do not need to be tested.

People with symptoms always had access to testing by going to the doctor or hospital, and by doing that, got tested. What’s changed is they have (finally) made testing widely available and accessible to whomever wanted it. This is a form of surveillance testing. The most likely people to make the effort to get tested are those that have a concern, either due to risky behavior or exposures, however, so it’s not pure surveillance testing. Nonetheless, the larger the sample group, the more reliable the data.

Today a 3.3% positive test result 7-day moving average is reported. Also, the Rt is now reported in Hawaii as below 1.0. That’s the first time its been below 1.0 in a while. Both indicate declining new cases. Of course, that’s not occurring in a vacuum, it’s occurring precisely in sync with moderate shut-down orders. So, it’s the hoped for and expected result. Irrespective of the gross number of new cases, declining percentages of positive tests and declining Rt are both indicative of an improving environment and reduced community spread. The gross/raw numbers will follow. First in new cases, then in hospitalizations. As long as Labor Day weekend doesn’t screw it up, by next Thursday the number of new cases ought to be below 50 even with a lot of testing.

It would, IMO, be prudent to extend the shut-down orders another week. Two weeks seems unnecessary to me. But I have a hard time seeing how they don’t extend the orders regarding travel. Would be nice if they only go to mid-Oct to give time to decide in later September when the full impact of the orders has played out. I’m guessing they’ll go to Nov. 1.

 

[DannyTS]

People with symptoms always had access to testing by going to the doctor or hospital, and by doing that, got tested. What’s changed is they have (finally) made testing widely available and accessible to whomever wanted it. This is a form of surveillance testing. The most likely people to make the effort to get tested are those that have a concern, either due to risky behavior or exposures, however, so it’s not pure surveillance testing. Nonetheless, the larger the sample group, the more reliable the data.

Today a 3.3% positive test result 7-day moving average is reported. Also, the Rt is now reported in Hawaii as below 1.0. That’s the first time its been below 1.0 in a while. Both indicate declining new cases. Of course, that’s not occurring in a vacuum, it’s occurring precisely in sync with moderate shut-down orders. So, it’s the hoped for and expected result. Irrespective of the gross number of new cases, declining percentages of positive tests and declining Rt are both indicative of an improving environment and reduced community spread. The gross/raw numbers will follow. First in new cases, then in hospitalizations. As long as Labor Day weekend doesn’t screw it up, by next Thursday the number of new cases ought to be below 50 even with a lot of testing.

I do not disagree with you. Lowering the numbers when they lock down is easy but as we know it is not sustainable in the long run. The hard part starts after they lift the restrictions.

 

[csodjd]

as we know it is not sustainable in the long run. The hard part starts after they lift the restrictions.

It does indeed.

I'm not sure what "sustainable" is or if it even matters. What matters is manageable. Manageable at a level of infections that the health care system can handle the cases that go badly, manageable at a level that contact tracers can do their job effectively to limit community spread, and manageable at a level that businesses, including service businesses like restaurants and the tourist industry, can safely operate.

It is clear to me that COVID will be with us for quite some time to come. I don't see (foresee) any meaningful elimination of the COVID threat in the next 12 months -- and that's IF an effective vaccine is developed (effective meaning > 60% receiving it are protected for a year or more). So in the interim it's about managing it and learning to live with it -- especially keeping people that do get a "bad" case alive, off respirators, and out of the ICU with effective treatments. More Zoom. More masks. Working from home. Outdoor dining. No super-spreader events. More testing (home tests!). Avoiding high risk like bars, big indoor parties, fraternity parties, etc.

 

[Ken555]

It is clear to me that COVID will be with us for quite some time to come. I don't see (foresee) any meaningful elimination of the COVID threat in the next 12 months -- and that's IF an effective vaccine is developed (effective meaning > 60% receiving it are protected for a year or more). So in the interim it's about managing it and learning to live with it -- especially keeping people that do get a "bad" case alive, off respirators, and out of the ICU with effective treatments. More Zoom. More masks. Working from home. Outdoor dining. No super-spreader events. More testing (home tests!). Avoiding high risk like bars, big indoor parties, fraternity parties, etc.

^^THIS

This is what some of us have been advocating since early this year. It seems most now realize there is no magical cure for this mess.


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[jabberwocky]

@csodjd I hope you are right - but you are much more optimistic than I am. I think a November opening is possible, but I'm pulling the plug on my March Maui reservations and moving them to August next year. The risk is just too great and I have lost quite a bit of confidence that the islands will have a reasonable way to travel there without avoiding quarantine.

 

[csodjd]

@csodjd I hope you are right - but you are much more optimistic than I am. I think a November opening is possible, but I'm pulling the plug on my March Maui reservations and moving them to August next year. The risk is just too great and I have lost quite a bit of confidence that the islands will have a reasonable way to travel there without avoiding quarantine.

I consider the last point, to me, to be the most important. I don't find it difficult to enjoy Hawaii without engaging in, really, ANY risky activities. We don't go to bars, nightclubs, concerts, parties, etc. Its beach. Golf. Morning coffee on the lanai. Outdoor dinners, or home cooked dinners on the lanai. Just need to be able to get there and back.

I also happen to believe that infection risk outdoors is low. Not impossible, but not common. We're certainly not hearing of major outbreaks from the Sturgis biker event in South Dakota. Some cases, but I'm betting those are related to the bars and nightclubs. There were 250k people there. There should be 1000's and 1000's of cases if outdoor spread was easy. Same with all the protests around the Country. Compare those with college parties, where we're hearing about 1000's of cases in colleges already. It just doesn't seem to spread much in the open spaces where viral concentrations don't accumulate. My country club has been having outdoor breakfasts, lunches and dinners now for weeks. They are quite crowded and busy, but spaced out. Tables nicely separated, and not more than six at a round table that could hold ten. No known cases. With that in mind, Hawaii is pretty much the ideal place to be if you want to avoid risk and still have a life.

 

[cman]

It is clear to me that COVID will be with us for quite some time to come. I don't see (foresee) any meaningful elimination of the COVID threat in the next 12 months -- and that's IF an effective vaccine is developed (effective meaning > 60% receiving it are protected for a year or more). So in the interim it's about managing it and learning to live with it

You make a very good point. Smallpox is the only virus (that effects humans), that has been eradicated by human intervention. The rest of them have been contained/managed. Even polio is still out there. It's just a few hundred cases per year, but it supports your point that this thing most likely will be with us for awhile.

 

[csodjd]

^^THIS

This is what some of us have been advocating since early this year. It seems most now realize there is no magical cure for this mess.


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No, no magical cures. But it has taken some time to figure it out. To figure out how it spreads. To figure out what is risky and what isn't. To figure out HOW to get back closer to normal. And for the doctors to learn how to treat patients. Who goes badly and who doesn't? Who can go home and who needs to be admitted? What treatments work and which don't? I don't think the virus is any less deadly than it was in March, I just think medical care now knows how to keep most people (compared with March) from dying, and that will continue to improve. If they knew then what they know now, its likely we'd have far fewer deaths from COVID.

 

[Ken555]

No, no magical cures. But it has taken some time to figure it out. To figure out how it spreads. To figure out what is risky and what isn't. To figure out HOW to get back closer to normal. And for the doctors to learn how to treat patients. Who goes badly and who doesn't? Who can go home and who needs to be admitted? What treatments work and which don't? I don't think the virus is any less deadly than it was in March, I just think medical care now knows how to keep most people (compared with March) from dying, and that will continue to improve. If they knew then what they know now, its likely we'd have far fewer deaths from COVID.

Yup. That’s why many of us advocated social distancing by staying at home as much as possible, especially in areas with troubling numbers.

And yet just today several of my neighbors were congregating without masks. Last time I spoke with these individuals, they just didn’t believe that it was as infectious or troubling as we know it is.


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[dsmrp]

Local news article about latest businesses WARN layoff notices:
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...triggers-mass-layoffs-traveler-cancellations/

 

[DannyTS]

It does indeed.

I'm not sure what "sustainable" is or if it even matters. What matters is manageable. Manageable at a level of infections that the health care system can handle the cases that go badly, manageable at a level that contact tracers can do their job effectively to limit community spread, and manageable at a level that businesses, including service businesses like restaurants and the tourist industry, can safely operate.

It is clear to me that COVID will be with us for quite some time to come. I don't see (foresee) any meaningful elimination of the COVID threat in the next 12 months -- and that's IF an effective vaccine is developed (effective meaning > 60% receiving it are protected for a year or more). So in the interim it's about managing it and learning to live with it -- especially keeping people that do get a "bad" case alive, off respirators, and out of the ICU with effective treatments. More Zoom. More masks. Working from home. Outdoor dining. No super-spreader events. More testing (home tests!). Avoiding high risk like bars, big indoor parties, fraternity parties, etc.

Sustainable means a policy that they do not have to change every 3 weeks, that is transparent in terms of costs and benefits, that does not bankrupt part of the population and weakens considerably the state's resources (with all the socio and health consequences), that is consistent and that they can keep in the medium term, and that in general minimizes the negative effects in the medium and long term (not focused on just the next 15 days) and takes into consideration people's happiness in addition their health.

 

[LannyPC]

So in the interim it's about managing it and learning to live with it -- especially keeping people that do get a "bad" case alive, off respirators, and out of the ICU with effective treatments. More Zoom. More masks. Working from home. Outdoor dining. No super-spreader events. More testing (home tests!). Avoiding high risk like bars, big indoor parties, fraternity parties, etc.

While that may be true, this is a case of easier said than done. What you are suggesting here has been suggested for the last six months or so yet many people.... (well, you can fill in the blanks on the rest).

 

[Tacoma]

In August there was a news that Canadians were going to be allowed to go to Hawaii and avoid the 14 day quarantine if they had a negative test within 3 days. I looked on the Hawaii website and it says everyone must quarantine. Does anyone know the actual answer to this?

 

[jabberwocky]

I consider the last point, to me, to be the most important. I don't find it difficult to enjoy Hawaii without engaging in, really, ANY risky activities. We don't go to bars, nightclubs, concerts, parties, etc. Its beach. Golf. Morning coffee on the lanai. Outdoor dinners, or home cooked dinners on the lanai. Just need to be able to get there and back.

I also happen to believe that infection risk outdoors is low. Not impossible, but not common. We're certainly not hearing of major outbreaks from the Sturgis biker event in South Dakota. Some cases, but I'm betting those are related to the bars and nightclubs. There were 250k people there. There should be 1000's and 1000's of cases if outdoor spread was easy. Same with all the protests around the Country. Compare those with college parties, where we're hearing about 1000's of cases in colleges already. It just doesn't seem to spread much in the open spaces where viral concentrations don't accumulate. My country club has been having outdoor breakfasts, lunches and dinners now for weeks. They are quite crowded and busy, but spaced out. Tables nicely separated, and not more than six at a round table that could hold ten. No known cases. With that in mind, Hawaii is pretty much the ideal place to be if you want to avoid risk and still have a life.

Completely agree with you 100%. Pretty much the only indoor thing we do in Hawaii where we are in a crowded space would be dine-in restaurants or a bit of shopping. Most of our other activities involve being outdoors (hiking, snorkeling, or just hanging out in a pool). It really comes down to DDSS (Don't Do Stupid S___).

I'm not even sure I would classify the actual flight to Hawaii as being high risk given mask requirements and aircraft air filtration. We've now had over 1000 flights in Canada with at least one confirmed case of covid-19 onboard (many have been overseas flights). Despite very good contact tracing and testing, there has not been a single instance of confirmed transmission to other passengers on the flight.

 

[jabberwocky]

In August there was a news that Canadians were going to be allowed to go to Hawaii and avoid the 14 day quarantine if they had a negative test within 3 days. I looked on the Hawaii website and it says everyone must quarantine. Does anyone know the actual answer to this?

I think this was for everyone. There wasn't a specific Canadian exception. Early on there was some talk about giving preference to places with low case counts (Japan was mentioned), but I don't think Canada was in the mix.

 

[slip]

In August there was a news that Canadians were going to be allowed to go to Hawaii and avoid the 14 day quarantine if they had a negative test within 3 days. I looked on the Hawaii website and it says everyone must quarantine. Does anyone know the actual answer to this?

Right now Trans-Pacific flights to Hawaii require a 14 day quarantine. Starting October 1st, the quarantine can be avoided with a negative test no more than 3 days before arrival. But, that was supposed to start September 1st and was moved back. Many people believe it will be pushed back again.

 

[echino]

In August there was a news that Canadians were going to be allowed to go to Hawaii and avoid the 14 day quarantine if they had a negative test within 3 days. I looked on the Hawaii website and it says everyone must quarantine. Does anyone know the actual answer to this?

I saw those news too. Bad reporting. There was no specific exemption for Canadians.

 

[Tacoma]

Yes probably a combination of Hawaii was supposed to open up in Sept but then changed direction. Seems like everyone will have to wait a little longer. Thanks. Joan

 

[DannyTS]

Hawaii commercial real estate sales crashing | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Hawaii’s commercial real estate market is on pace to have its worst year in more than a decade, as investors, like tourists, largely stay away.

www.staradvertiser.com

 

[DannyTS]

this is what people are going through

Here's How These Hawaii Workers Are Navigating The Pandemic Economy

Three residents share their strategies for overcoming longterm unemployment and sunken business models as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the local economy.

www.civilbeat.org

 

[csodjd]

66 new cases reported today. 105 yesterday. 164 the day before that. Three points of note:
1. This is precisely the trend one would expect at the time it would be expected. We're about 11 days out from the new orders, so case counts should be dropping a lot.
2. It was Labor Day weekend and it's unclear if that impacted the reported number of cases.
3. Testing was way down over the weekend, no doubt due to Labor Day weekend. Test less and you find fewer cases.

Here are the new cases:

Here's the testing data:

Hard to ignore that the two graphs look about the same, so it will be another 1-2 days before we really know if the shut-down in Oahu has done the trick.

 

[csodjd]

Oahu stay at home order extended for two more weeks. Beaches and parks are open for solo activities.

Dine-in at restaurants still not allowed.

Any clues given when a decision on whether to move the Oct 1 date to Nov 1?

 

[csodjd]

Mayor extends stay-at-home order, but reopens parks and beaches for solo activities

“The one thing we’re not going to do a second time is rush to reopen and then have a second spike."

www.hawaiinewsnow.com