[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[chellej]

We're scheduled to go to Kauai, Maui, Big Island in late Jan/early Feb 2021. At this point, I've pretty much concluded that's not going to happen. If we cancel prior to around Nov 23 (60 days out), we can rebook our weeks, subject to availability, for later in 2021. Since October would be our preferred alternative fall 2021 travel month, I want to have the weeks available at the 12 months window opening, so we'll probably need to make the go/no-go call sometime in early October. I can't imagine things are going to be much different with quarantine/restrictions by then, so I fully expect we won't be going to Hawaii in January . Even if the situation is better in October, I have no confidence that Gov Ige won't reimpose restrictions if cases tick up a bit before January. I don't want our trip hanging on his decisions.

To be honest, even October may be iffy, but rescheduling until then buys us 9 months before we would have to give our weeks to II.

We were scheduled to be on Kauai for the first 2 weeks in January. I could have waited until mid November to cancel but just don't feel things are getting better anytime soon so I bit the bullet and canceled. The weeks didn't last long..they were snapped up the next day. Rescheduled for May... one week on Maui and One on the Big Island....We'll see what happens

 

[DeniseM]

We are starting to see the results of the testing push:

Hawaii reports 1 coronavirus-related death on Oahu and 339 new cases | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Hawaii Department of Health officials today recorded one new coronavirus-related death and 339 new cases, bringing the statewide totals since the beginning of the pandemic to 75 fatalities and 8,991 cases.

www.staradvertiser.com

 

[slip]

339 cases today. I think it will be a while before it levels out.

 

[jabberwocky]

I find this the interesting part:

“Health officials said 90 of today’s new cases are previously diagnosed cases from between Aug. 20 and Monday “whose reporting was delayed as the result of an error … that has subsequently been corrected.”

So today’s total includes cases that should have been reported over the past two weeks. This is an example of why moving averages are more important than single day blips.

 

[PearlCity]

I find this the interesting part:

“Health officials said 90 of today’s new cases are previously diagnosed cases from between Aug. 20 and Monday “whose reporting was delayed as the result of an error … that has subsequently been corrected.”

So today’s total includes cases that should have been reported over the past two weeks. This is an example of why moving averages are more important than single day blips.

For thr group this website has grear data including 7 day moving averages for Hawaii https://www.hawaiidata.org/covid19

Sent from my SM-G973U1 using Tapatalk

 

[DeniseM]

“Health officials said 90 of today’s new cases are previously diagnosed cases from between Aug. 20 and Monday “whose reporting was delayed as the result of an error … that has subsequently been corrected.”

They recently had 1,700 tests that were mislabeled and had to be repeated - not sure if this is the same incident or not. Reportedly, the fire dept. giving the tests were not given correct instructions by the testing lab.

 

[csodjd]

I understand that you do low risk activiites when in Hawaii so the rise is low. However, I question some of what you said about the plane ride:

- The infection rates are a moving target. They were horrible in NY in March thru May. They are bad in Hawaii right now.
- You said everyone on the plane tested negative. When has that become a criteria?
- I don't understand the statement 89-80% chance of minor or no symptoms?
- The reasonable people that don't go are most probably NOT infected since they are very cautious. The ones that due do are less cautious so that raises your risk not lowers it

Let me address those bullet points.

As to the first, true and correct, but that's got nothing to with the plane ride. And, while "bad" right now, the assumption underlying even being ABLE to go (without quarantine) is that they are much improved. I'm evaluating risk with the assumption Hawaii is (a) allowing visitors again, and (b) they are allowing them because the infection rate has returned to very low numbers.

As to the second, that's the assumption, that as a condition of going without quarantine one has to have been tested negative within 72 hours. So I'm assuming that's the criteria, not that it is now, but will be.

As to the third, assuming your comment is a typo (I said 80-90%), that's simply based on data showing about 40% have no symptoms at all, and the rate of serious illness (requiring ER or hospitalization), though very age-dependent, is about 15%. That must be viewed with a grain of salt because of individual variation. If you are 78 and have several relevant co-morbidities that's very different than 51 and healthy in terms of risk of serious illness from COVID. The former would probably be ill-advised to travel, well, anywhere right now. The latter, not as much an issue. (One source reports this, as of March 30: "a 20-something has about a 1% chance of illness so severe it requires hospitalization, and that risk rises to more than 8% for people in their 50s and to nearly 19% for people over 80." https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-odds-hospitalization-death-covid-steadily.html).

As to the fourth, I appreciate the point and there's some inherent truth to it. But, again, it is quite mitigated by at least two important factors. The first is, to go to Hawaii (without quarantine) you'd have to have been tested negative. So whatever lack of caution you have displayed, you've tested negative. Second, going to Hawaii isn't as likely in the demographics most affected by COVID. Factory workers, inner-city hourly workers, elder-care residents, prisons/jails, etc., those people aren't going to Hawaii. Hawaii -generally- (broad brush stroke here) is visited by younger people (low risk for serious illness) or people from a higher socio-economic status (e.g., have more money) which is also a statistically relatively low risk group for COVID infection.

 

[csodjd]

We are starting to see the results of the testing push:

Hawaii reports 1 coronavirus-related death on Oahu and 339 new cases | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Hawaii Department of Health officials today recorded one new coronavirus-related death and 339 new cases, bringing the statewide totals since the beginning of the pandemic to 75 fatalities and 8,991 cases.

www.staradvertiser.com

I -think- that's a good thing. Finding cases, or people finding that they ARE a case, is the key to stoping spread. It is THE REASON for testing. So, yes, it will increase the number of cases, but that's a necessary step to reducing the number of cases. Assuming CDC guidelines are science and not politics, they say that within 10 days after infection and no fever you're no longer infectious. If these people that test positive now stay put and don't infect someone else, the case count will drop.

 

[csodjd]

This may not be as bad as it gets... but it's moving that direction. This is reported today by Hawaii News Now:

The expert hand-picked to fix the state’s contact tracing program has asked to go on leave, citing “significant confusion” about who is leading the effort — a conflict she says is preventing her from doing her job, Civil Beat reports.

The state announced Emily Roberson would take over the state’s overwhelmed COVID-19 contact tracing program from state Epidemiologist Sarah Park just two weeks ago.

But in an email Wednesday to deputy Health Director Danette Tomiyasu, Roberson said she hasn’t been able to perform her duties because of “significant confusion regarding whose authority and which directives I should be following with regards to COVID-19 contact tracing in Hawaii.”

“In order to avoid making any unintentional missteps that could inadvertently compromise the COVID-19 response, I am requesting leave ... until my specific role, duties, and chain of command with regards to COVID-19 contact tracing efforts in Hawaii can be clarified by leadership.”

Civil Beat says people who work with DOH believe that Park is at the heart of Roberson’s complaints.

Despite being removed from the role, Park continues to oversee the contact tracing effort, those familiar with the program say. That’s despite the governor saying otherwise last month.

 

[Tamaradarann]

That scene at the Food Bank was horrible. Hawaii had such good numbers back in April and May so they wanted to keep out visitors from other areas which was understandable. I was a big advocate of no quarantine for those testing negative before they got on the plane back in June to get the tourism economy going again. At that point we had reservations and plans to return in September so we were enthusiastic about the plan. I understand that Hawaii had a partnership with CVS to do the testing for the program, however, CVS couldn't turn the tests around on a timely basis. (in my opinion CVS didn't hold up their end of the parnership since the timely testing was what they were bringing to the partnership, Hawaii was bringing the patients!) We were very disappointed that the plan never came to fruition and changed our reservations which we have since changed twice more to sometime in 2021.

Hawaii needs tourism to come back in earnest to survive. We know some Hawaiians who are happy to see few or no tourists coming as well as others that know they need to tourists to survive. I would think that many of those on the Food Bank line are in the latter group.

As far as the eviction ban ending, I don't think that the Hawaiian Government would let that happen until Hawaii gets on its feet again economically. However, I think the real question is how and when will people who have not been paying rent or mortgages be able catch up on what the owe! Will the Hawaiian Government bail them out or how will they be able to make extra payments out of income that is barerly enough to survive normally?

 

[Tamaradarann]

Let me address those bullet points.

As to the first, true and correct, but that's got nothing to with the plane ride. And, while "bad" right now, the assumption underlying even being ABLE to go (without quarantine) is that they are much improved. I'm evaluating risk with the assumption Hawaii is (a) allowing visitors again, and (b) they are allowing them because the infection rate has returned to very low numbers.

As to the second, that's the assumption, that as a condition of going without quarantine one has to have been tested negative within 72 hours. So I'm assuming that's the criteria, not that it is now, but will be.

As to the third, assuming your comment is a typo (I said 80-90%), that's simply based on data showing about 40% have no symptoms at all, and the rate of serious illness (requiring ER or hospitalization), though very age-dependent, is about 15%. That must be viewed with a grain of salt because of individual variation. If you are 78 and have several relevant co-morbidities that's very different than 51 and healthy in terms of risk of serious illness from COVID. The former would probably be ill-advised to travel, well, anywhere right now. The latter, not as much an issue. (One source reports this, as of March 30: "a 20-something has about a 1% chance of illness so severe it requires hospitalization, and that risk rises to more than 8% for people in their 50s and to nearly 19% for people over 80." https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-03-odds-hospitalization-death-covid-steadily.html).

As to the fourth, I appreciate the point and there's some inherent truth to it. But, again, it is quite mitigated by at least two important factors. The first is, to go to Hawaii (without quarantine) you'd have to have been tested negative. So whatever lack of caution you have displayed, you've tested negative. Second, going to Hawaii isn't as likely in the demographics most affected by COVID. Factory workers, inner-city hourly workers, elder-care residents, prisons/jails, etc., those people aren't going to Hawaii. Hawaii -generally- (broad brush stroke here) is visited by younger people (low risk for serious illness) or people from a higher socio-economic status (e.g., have more money) which is also a statistically relatively low risk group for COVID infection.

I didn't know that your comments were contingent on the promised, but not yet delivered, testing before flight so no quaratnine policy which we have been advocating for. In view of that I understand #1&2. I do have some comments on 3&4.

#3, we are in the over 70 group so our perspective is different than yours on travelling.

#4, I stand by my statement that those that the more cautious would be travelling would in general be less cautious so the chance of infection would be greater not less when traveling. The really cautious are swearing off traveling until there is an effective vaccine. Furthermfore, while I agree with you that at times more younger people travel to Hawaii than older people. However, during the months of Jan, Feb, and March when we usually go there are so many older retired people getting away from the cold in Hawaii like we do.

 

[dsmrp]

Just saw on the news that the Big Island is closing beaches for 2 weeks starting today. Restroom facilities will still be open. And walking access to the water of course.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I got distracted typing this one above so I cleaned it up to make some sense.

#4, I stand by my statement that those that are less cautious would be travelling so the chance of infection would be greater not less when traveling on the plane. The really cautious are swearing off traveling until there is an effective vaccine. Furthermore, while I agree with you that at times like when school is out more younger people travel to Hawaii than older people, during the months of Jan, Feb, and March, when we usually go, there are so many older retired people getting away from the cold in Hawaii like we do.

 

[csodjd]

However, during the months of Jan, Feb, and March when we usually go there are so many older retired people getting away from the cold in Hawaii like we do.

I understand and appreciate that, however, those "older retired people" still are not coming from the high risk areas such as factory workers, farm workers, elder care facilities/nursing homes, low-wage earners, prisons and jails, etc., and they aren't hanging out in small bars or clubs or fraternity houses. I have no data, but I wonder how many of the 180k that have died were over the age of 70 and living in their own home and NOT living in a shared type facility such as a nursing home or assisted living? Someone like you is, really, at quite low risk of contracting COVID.

At the end of the day there is cavalier. There is cautious. And there is overly cautious. Nothing wrong with overly cautious, except for all you give up that you didn't need to give up. It's not unlike investing. Yes, you can invest solely in US Treasuries and know there's no risk. But, you also make no money. Investment grade corporate bonds carry remote risk, but pay 5-10x as much.

 

[csodjd]

211 cases today is actually quite encouraging given the surge testing going on. This data for Honolulu is pretty encouraging. Leveling off even as testing is increasing.

 

[jabberwocky]

The surge testing results are even more encouraging. Less than 1% positivity rate.

HHS: Less than 1% of Hawaii’s ’surge’ tests conducted so far have come back positive

In a statement Thursday, the US Department of Health and Human Services said that of 15,152 specimens tested, 92 were positive. That’s a positivity rate of less than 1%.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

This is essentially as close as you will come to zero cases given potential false-positives.

 

[csodjd]

The surge testing results are even more encouraging. Less than 1% positivity rate.

HHS: Less than 1% of Hawaii’s ’surge’ tests conducted so far have come back positive

In a statement Thursday, the US Department of Health and Human Services said that of 15,152 specimens tested, 92 were positive. That’s a positivity rate of less than 1%.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

This is essentially as close as you will come to zero cases given potential false-positives.

7-day positive is 3.6%. That's also good. And obviously it's dropping. It is 4.1% in Honolulu, down from 8.9% on August 25. It seems clear that the stay home orders are working. It's now been one week. Most, but not all, of the infections from exposures prior to the order should be showing up. By Tuesday that 7-day ought to be below 2% IF -- IF -- this weekend doesn't screw it all up!

 

[csodjd]

Was just reading that the Lt. Gov. wants to extend the orders for two more weeks. He believes they need two 14-day cycles to ensure things are under control, and he said they need new infections below 150. I think maybe he's being a bit pessimistic. We're still almost a week from the end of the first period. It could certainly be below 150 by then, because all the pre-order exposures are now manifesting. I could see a 1-wk extension, but two may be more than is necessary.

It does seem to me that if the Oct 1 date is to be extended to Nov 1, that's going to be announced by about the 15th of Sept.

 

[slip]

271 cases today, I think they will extend the stay at home order for two more weeks early next week. Before when decisions were being made, they were always done monthly. They started this with two weeks and I think they will extend it two more weeks.

I remember Governor Ige saying he wanted daily cases to be below 50 cases.

 

[csodjd]

271 cases today, I think they will extend the stay at home order for two more weeks early next week. Before when decisions were being made, they were always done monthly. They started this with two weeks and I think they will extend it two more weeks.

I remember Governor Ige saying he wanted daily cases to be below 50 cases.

You're probably right, but there is a certain amount of that that doesn't make sense. They quintupled the testing so now they're finding out probably for the first time what the REAL number of active/new cases was, so of course there appears to be more. But the infection RATE is dropping. Even at a 1% rate, if you test enough people you'll have 200 cases! I know they are fixated on hospital capacity, but if the infection RATE is dropping, all the other pieces fall into place.

 

[csodjd]

I remember Governor Ige saying he wanted daily cases to be below 50 cases.

Maybe then they should just do less testing!

 

[slip]

You're probably right, but there is a certain amount of that that doesn't make sense. They quintupled the testing so now they're finding out probably for the first time what the REAL number of active/new cases was, so of course there appears to be more. But the infection RATE is dropping. Even at a 1% rate, if you test enough people you'll have 200 cases! I know they are fixated on hospital capacity, but if the infection RATE is dropping, all the other pieces fall into place.

I’m just going off past history and what they said. I’m really not trying to figure out anything. I have to keep up with what is happening for work.

 

[DannyTS]

You're probably right, but there is a certain amount of that that doesn't make sense. They quintupled the testing so now they're finding out probably for the first time what the REAL number of active/new cases was, so of course there appears to be more. But the infection RATE is dropping. Even at a 1% rate, if you test enough people you'll have 200 cases! I know they are fixated on hospital capacity, but if the infection RATE is dropping, all the other pieces fall into place.

I am not sure I agree with that statement. They are testing 90,000 people but 950,000 live on Oahu so they only test less than 10% of the population. They can still potentially miss a lot of infected people. Yes, they will report a bit more infections but since they test a fraction of the population they will only capture a part of the real number. By testing a lot, the positivity rate will drop significantly and that will be very misleading since it is like shooting in the dark, you will certainly miss more . Of course the lockdown will lower the number of infections in the next couple of weeks but they will not drop to zero so that will resolve nothing since the numbers can go back up in no time once they lift the restrictions. IMO they should just be straight and tell both locals and visitors what to expect: before a good chunk of the population gets the vaccine, Hawaii will not open. If they open before they will look like fools since they could have done it already by now.

 

[frank808]

I expect the stay at home order to be extended for 2 more weeks.

It might be a conspiracy theory of mine. The mayor issued a 2 week stay at home order originally. I believe the intention all along was a 30 day stay at home but that would be very unpopular and met with a lot of resistance. So a 2 week order was issued instead. If the cases stayed high then he can justify another 2 weeks. If the numbers dropped but not to the low teens, he can say that the order is working, but we need another 2 weeks to get it under control. So he gets his 30 day stay at home with very little opposition.

 

[dsmrp]

I expect the stay at home order to be extended for 2 more weeks.

It might be a conspiracy theory of mine. The mayor issued a 2 week stay at home order originally. I believe the intention all along was a 30 day stay at home but that would be very unpopular and met with a lot of resistance. So a 2 week order was issued instead. If the cases stayed high then he can justify another 2 weeks. If the numbers dropped but not to the low teens, he can say that the order is working, but we need another 2 weeks to get it under control. So he gets his 30 day stay at home with very little opposition.

I can really see that .
I just don't feel that they have a cohesive sustainable plan. There was another turnover at leadership level, reported a couple of days ago. This time, I believe, the lead of the Health dept's investigation, contact tracing section.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...in-of-command-issues-at-department-of-health/

The state epidemiologist just a little earlier was put on administrative leave.
https://www.staradvertiser.com/2020...g-leave-of-absence-from-department-of-health/

They can't effectively implement a plan, if they have one, if everyone is not on the same page.