[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[PigsDad]

How does that reconcile with this data from the Univ. of Washington? This is sorted by total cases per capita. I don't have the data, but if you were to remove from this cases occurring in March/April so this reflected only May 1 to now, I believe NY would drop a bunch and the 8 states with the HIGHEST case count per capita would be Arizona + the Southeast. Granted, cases is not the same as hospitalizations, so the data on the latter might be different.

Notable, if you've been following this data, is that NY, NJ and Mass dominated the cases/1M population for a long time. And over the past two months the Southern states and Arizona have just climbed and climbed as the Northeast got spread under control, but the Southeast/Arizona case counts grew and grew. I've watched NY drop from #1 to #7 over the past 4-5 weeks.

In my view this cannot reflect any randomness. There is a systemic difference between the 8 states in this top 9 (excluding NY) and others.

View attachment 25685

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

I noticed that you cut off the chart just before the deaths/million column. Right now, NY has 3X more deaths per million than FL (to take one example) -- 1697 vs. 521. While FL my have more confirmed cases per million right now, I think that has more to do with when the peaks hit each state and what testing they were doing during those peaks.

With 3X more deaths/million in NY but less confirmed cases/million, do you really think NY had less actual cases/million? Was the virus really more than 3X more deadly in NY than FL? Or maybe it is because early in the pandemic (when NY was getting hit hard), testing was focused on those who were quite ill -- early on, even if you had symptoms, many times people were told not to even get tested unless the symptoms became life threatening. Given this, it would only make sense that the actual total cumulative cases in NY are way more than were confirmed.

While the data that is presented on this site is informational, given how testing was done early vs. now and taking into account when each state was going through its peak, using the data in this table is not very useful for making state-to-state comparisons.

Kurt

 

[csodjd]

I noticed that you cut off the chart just before the deaths/million column. Right now, NY has 3X more deaths per million than FL (to take one example) -- 1697 vs. 521. While FL my have more confirmed cases per million right now, I think that has more to do with when the peaks hit each state and what testing they were doing during those peaks.

With 3X more deaths/million in NY but less confirmed cases/million, do you really think NY had less actual cases/million? Was the virus really more than 3X more deadly in NY than FL? Or maybe it is because early in the pandemic (when NY was getting hit hard), testing was focused on those who were quite ill -- early on, even if you had symptoms, many times people were told not to even get tested unless the symptoms became life threatening. Given this, it would only make sense that the actual total cumulative cases in NY are way more than were confirmed.

While the data that is presented on this site is informational, given how testing was done early vs. now and taking into account when each state was going through its peak, using the data in this table is not very useful for making state-to-state comparisons.

Kurt

I cut off the deaths per capita because it's not particularly helpful. The vast majority of deaths in NY and NJ were early in the disease when almost nothing was known, not even how COVID was killing people. Since we can't sort out monthly, or start it as of, say, June 1, we can't draw helpful conclusions.

It is not that the virus was 3x more deadly in NY than in FL. It is that the virus was 3x more deadly early in the pandemic than later. Later doctors had numerous tools, knowledge, and experience to prevent death that would have otherwise occurred early in the pandemic. All other things being equal, would you rather have become infected in March or in August? Would you rather be the 3rd patient a doctor had ever treated, or the 300th?

I don't care where you live... you're less likely to die from COVID today than you were in March/April. Since the data and charts we have don't allow that to be taken into consideration, the data is rendered unhelpful if trying to draw conclusions about how CONDUCT in various states is working or not working TODAY.

 

[DeniseM]

Hawaii’s hospitals are in urgent need of nurses to tackle a surge in COVID-19 cases | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

With an influx in hospitalizations in Hawaii due to the surge in COVID-19 cases, health care officials have put out an urgent call for more nurses to assist.

www.staradvertiser.com

 

[PigsDad]

I cut off the deaths per capita because it's not particularly helpful. The vast majority of deaths in NY and NJ were early in the disease when almost nothing was known, not even how COVID was killing people. Since we can't sort out monthly, or start it as of, say, June 1, we can't draw helpful conclusions.

It is not that the virus was 3x more deadly in NY than in FL. It is that the virus was 3x more deadly early in the pandemic than later. Later doctors had numerous tools, knowledge, and experience to prevent death that would have otherwise occurred early in the pandemic. All other things being equal, would you rather have become infected in March or in August? Would you rather be the 3rd patient a doctor had ever treated, or the 300th?

I don't care where you live... you're less likely to die from COVID today than you were in March/April. Since the data and charts we have don't allow that to be taken into consideration, the data is rendered unhelpful if trying to draw conclusions about how CONDUCT in various states is working or not working TODAY.

All of this is assuming confirmed Covid cases is the same as actual Covid cases, which is completely false. How the testing was done is a huge factor, which you seem to be completely ignoring. Whatever -- you can believe what you want, even it it has very little to do with reality.

Kurt

 

[rickandcindy23]

With Hawaii shut down so long, where are these new cases coming from?

 

[csodjd]

All of this is assuming confirmed Covid cases is the same as actual Covid cases, which is completely false. How the testing was done is a huge factor, which you seem to be completely ignoring. Whatever -- you can believe what you want, even it it has very little to do with reality.

Kurt

Well, every state in the Country is reporting daily cases. I suppose if it suits your needs you can claim that data "has very little to do with reality." Nonetheless, that data is driving policy and decisions, and school openings, and business closure decisions. Both political and medical authorities and leaders are relying on this data. Perhaps you've got sufficient expertise to have greater insight than they do, I don't know. But this data is the "reality" that is informing most decision making, all the way down to the decision to close down Oahu for two weeks and to delay opening up to trans-Pacific tourists. That IS reality.

 

[csodjd]

With Hawaii shut down so long, where are these new cases coming from?

Probably a mix of some coming in, and plenty of asymptomatic spread "under the radar" after the shut down was relaxed.

 

[DeniseM]

With Hawaii shut down so long, where are these new cases coming from?

I read the Honolulu Star Advertiser daily, and most of the new cases are coming from social gatherings: bars, big (illegal) for-pay parties on the beach, in a flotilla, or in the jungle, and large family gatherings, such as birthdays, wedding, funerals, the 4th of July, etc. Some of these for-pay parties have had hundreds of participants. Several of them were hosted by military personnel. It's just like every other state - people have let down their guard and are no longer taking precautions.

 

[PigsDad]

Well, every state in the Country is reporting daily cases. I suppose if it suits your needs you can claim that data "has very little to do with reality." Nonetheless, that data is driving policy and decisions, and school openings, and business closure decisions. Both political and medical authorities and leaders are relying on this data. Perhaps you've got sufficient expertise to have greater insight than they do, I don't know. But this data is the "reality" that is informing most decision making, all the way down to the decision to close down Oahu for two weeks and to delay opening up to trans-Pacific tourists. That IS reality.

Nice attempt in shifting the conversation to how current data is being used to make current decisions (which I have no issues with). However, my posts were pertaining to how data from NY in March/April cannot be used to compare current data from the more recent hot spots (like FL) due to how testing has changed in that time frame. Since you cannot seem to understand that, it's not worth my time to continue this discussion with you so I'll move on. Have a pleasant day.

Kurt

 

[PigsDad]

I read the Honolulu Star Advertiser daily, and most of the new cases are coming from social gatherings: bars, big (illegal) for-pay parties on the beach, in a flotilla, or in the jungle, and large family gatherings, such as birthdays, wedding, funerals, the 4th of July, etc. Some of these for-pay parties have had hundreds of participants. Several of them were hosted by military personnel. It's just like every other state - people have let down their guard and are no longer taking precautions.

So are they concluding that the new cases are coming mostly from locals and military personnel? I assume there are very few tourists / people from out of state attending these large social gatherings due to the quarantines, correct?

Kurt

 

[csodjd]

Nice attempt in shifting the conversation to how current data is being used to make current decisions (which I have no issues with). However, my posts were pertaining to how data from NY in March/April cannot be used to compare current data from the more recent hot spots (like FL) due to how testing has changed in that time frame. Since you cannot seem to understand that, it's not worth my time to continue this discussion with you so I'll move on. Have a pleasant day.

Kurt

You appear to have a difficult time having an intellectual discussion without personal attacks. Why is that?

You make the statement, "How the testing was done is a huge factor, which you seem to be completely ignoring." I have no idea what that means, or how you know this. What do you mean by "how the testing was done?" And it was/is a "huge factor" in what? I'm merely taking "testing" at face value, positive is positive and negative is negative, and looking at the data that's published. Are you talking about the accuracy of test results? The type of test? Specificity? Sensitivity? What EXACTLY is different about HOW the testing has changed?

 

[DeniseM]

So are they concluding that the new cases are coming mostly from locals and military personnel? I assume there are very few tourists / people from out of state attending these large social gatherings due to the quarantines, correct?
Kurt

Yes - After every holiday when people might get together, they've had a surge of cases. They aren't coming from outside the state.

 

[PigsDad]

You appear to have a difficult time having an intellectual discussion without personal attacks. Why is that?

Wow, if you don't think your posts were personal attacks, well, I'm shocked. Whatever -- I'm not going to lower myself to your level. Welcome to my ignore list.

Kurt

 

[DeniseM]

This thread is taking a time-out.

 

[csodjd]

It's being reported new cases are down to 133. That's down from I believe it was 200, and 309 before that. The cases occurring now should be mostly the more slowly developing cases from infection/exposure before the new rules took affect last week and less and less from "new" exposures.

If it goes well one would expect new cases to drop below 100 in the next couple of days and continue down steadily from there, bottoming out at some point. Deaths will probably continue to rise for a bit due to all the cases the past month. But dropping from 300 to < 150 in a few days is a good sign. Hope it holds!

State announces 7 new COVID-19 fatalities, in Hawaii’s deadliest day since pandemic began

The new fatalities bring the death toll from the virus in the islands to 70.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[DannyTS]

When the number of cases goes down, they will lift the restrictions and the spread will reignite. Hawaii's directors of Health and Public Safety have stepped down by the way

Directors of Health, Public Safety to step down amid criticism of state’s COVID-19 response

State Health Director Bruce Anderson and Public Safety Director Nolan Espinda will both be leaving their posts in September.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[csodjd]

When the number of cases goes down, they will lift the restrictions and the spread will reignite. Hawaii's directors of Health and Public Safety have stepped down by the way

Directors of Health, Public Safety to step down amid criticism of state’s COVID-19 response

State Health Director Bruce Anderson and Public Safety Director Nolan Espinda will both be leaving their posts in September.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

Well, they will if they do the same thing (or lack of "do") that they did last pass. Hopefully this time around they'll test and contact trace vigorously, and they'll be more surgical in their restriction easing.

Until there is immunity or vaccine there is no way to open up and avoid or limit spread other than testing, tracing, and preventing high risk activities like crowded bars. Perhaps more than anywhere in the US, Hawaii has the ability to be outside and that will go a long way. And, as the article you posted states, "And without adequate contact tracing or widespread testing, experts said, the state and city were ill equipped to slow the spread of the virus." Except I'd say "and," not "or."

 

[jabberwocky]

I’m not sure I would read too much into a raw daily new case number. Testing usually goes down over the weekend (not sure if some labs or collection sites close or reduce capacity - but this seems to be occurring across jurisdictions - not just Hawaii).

Based on yesterday’s figures (which correspond to the announcement today) the three day moving average tests per day was 2132 people on August 30. On August 26 the three day moving average number of tests run was 4168. So nearly a 50% drop in the number of tests run per day in only four days. We should expect to see a big drop in cases as a result.

That said, the seven day average positivity rate does seem to be stabilizing or declining, so if that holds then it may be an indication things are getting under control.

 

[csodjd]

I’m not sure I would read too much into a raw daily new case number. Testing usually goes down over the weekend (not sure if some labs or collection sites close or reduce capacity - but this seems to be occurring across jurisdictions - not just Hawaii).

Based on yesterday’s figures (which correspond to the announcement today) the three day moving average tests per day was 2132 people on August 30. On August 26 the three day moving average number of tests run was 4168. So nearly a 50% drop in the number of tests run per day in only four days. We should expect to see a big drop in cases as a result.

That said, the seven day average positivity rate does seem to be stabilizing or declining, so if that holds then it may be an indication things are getting under control.

No disagreement, but it's still better than seeing 400 be reported!

 

[jabberwocky]

No disagreement, but it's still better than seeing 400 be reported!

Agree that I like seeing fewer cases being reported. I prefer to be optimistic, so let’s not get too down if we see a spike on Wednesday or Thursday

On a side note: I’m not in the medical field, but one of my first jobs was in healthcare analytics for our public health system. I’ve learned that timing and measurement matter, particularly for labs, since the collection and processing leads to “batching”. You also learn a lot about human behaviour and incentives, things like: if you make it difficult for nurses to book vacation time you will see an abnormal number of sick days for nursing staff occurring on Monday and Friday, relative to other days of the week.

 

[amycurl]

It's really about positivity percentage; to really be able to mitigate and control spread, it needs to be under 5%, so any downward trend in that number is what I'm really looking for (in all communities, not just Hawaii.)

 

[csodjd]

It's really about positivity percentage; to really be able to mitigate and control spread, it needs to be under 5%, so any downward trend in that number is what I'm really looking for (in all communities, not just Hawaii.)

That's true, but only if they have a good surveillance testing program. If you only offer testing to symptomatic patients or people with high risk exposures you're not likely to see that 5% number. If you offer it to the community (as I believe Oahu is now doing), then that number has real meaning.

 

[JIMinNC]

We're scheduled to go to Kauai, Maui, Big Island in late Jan/early Feb 2021. At this point, I've pretty much concluded that's not going to happen. If we cancel prior to around Nov 23 (60 days out), we can rebook our weeks, subject to availability, for later in 2021. Since October would be our preferred alternative fall 2021 travel month, I want to have the weeks available at the 12 months window opening, so we'll probably need to make the go/no-go call sometime in early October. I can't imagine things are going to be much different with quarantine/restrictions by then, so I fully expect we won't be going to Hawaii in January . Even if the situation is better in October, I have no confidence that Gov Ige won't reimpose restrictions if cases tick up a bit before January. I don't want our trip hanging on his decisions.

To be honest, even October may be iffy, but rescheduling until then buys us 9 months before we would have to give our weeks to II.

 

[jabberwocky]

That's true, but only if they have a good surveillance testing program. If you only offer testing to symptomatic patients or people with high risk exposures you're not likely to see that 5% number. If you offer it to the community (as I believe Oahu is now doing), then that number has real meaning.

+1 for this. IMO the 5% is fairly arbitrary and only really relevant if you are doing widespread random testing in the community. Even contact tracing can push the positivity rate up if you focus testing mainly on those who have been in contact with a confirmed case. I am glad to see the Oahu rate coming down and trust that as they ramp the community testing up positivity will fall.

 

[csodjd]

We're scheduled to go to Kauai, Maui, Big Island in late Jan/early Feb 2021. At this point, I've pretty much concluded that's not going to happen. If we cancel prior to around Nov 23 (60 days out), we can rebook our weeks, subject to availability, for later in 2021. Since October would be our preferred alternative fall 2021 travel month, I want to have the weeks available at the 12 months window opening, so we'll probably need to make the go/no-go call sometime in early October. I can't imagine things are going to be much different with quarantine/restrictions by then, so I fully expect we won't be going to Hawaii in January . Even if the situation is better in October, I have no confidence that Gov Ige won't reimpose restrictions if cases tick up a bit before January. I don't want our trip hanging on his decisions.

To be honest, even October may be iffy, but rescheduling until then buys us 9 months before we would have to give our weeks to II.

We're holding on. Still hoping to go this October, maybe November. But I canceled Marriott so at this point it's just Hilton points. Can cancel and move them to 2021 any time.