[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[DannyTS]

Alaska allowed testing in lieu of quarantine starting on June 6th. There was a rise from the 1-4 cases each day that they had been seeing since late April to the high teens. At the end of June cases started rising swiftly to peaks of 141 on Jul 22nd and 137 on Aug 1st. Since then testing has fallen off and at least partially as a result so have cases which are now in the high 70s and low 80s (all these numbers are 7-day averages). Hospitalizations have risen since June 6th as have deaths. There is no question that Alaska did better in the period from the end of April to June 6th than it has done since. And also no question that they are still doing better than most of the country (though worse than Hawaii).

On the other side, I haven't been able to find any website that shows 'real time' visitor data like the Hawaii Tourism Authority does. There are visitor summary reports for 2019 (and years prior) that show number of people, dollars added to the economy, etc. but nothing on 2020. I've found anecdotal stories about 'Tourism way down', 'Will anyone come this summer', etc. but nothing concrete.

All that said, whether or not allowing visitors into Alaska was 'worth it' seems to be in the eye of the beholder.

View attachment 25657

I think Alaska's increases are more or less in line with what happened across US, people have been more mobile at the beginning of the summer especially after being locked down before. I do not think we have any data to attribute it to the visitors. The best number to follow is deaths, again I did not see anything alarming in Alaska.

Have you compared Alaska with Hawaii? Hawaii has had 7466 cases since June 6th, Alaska only 4638. Hawaii is doing worse even if you adjust for population and at the current rate, Hawaii will be even worse in few weeks.

 

[Tamaradarann]

Do you believe that those with a negative test should still quarantine? Have you looked at Alaska that implemented such a policy a while ago? I did not see anything alarming in their numbers.

No, you took my post out of context and perhaps I wasn't as explicit as I should have been. It was my response to the previous post where Pedro47 said that the New Government Site wouldn't load. I was expressing my thought that since the site DOESN'T assist with one getting a Coronavirus Test before flying to avoid the 14 day quarantine that I wasn't disappointed that it didn't load. I couldn't care less!

 

[cman]

Government site would not load

Try this link, then select item #5;

Safe Travels Help

The Safe Travels Hawaii program is a multilayered process designed to protect the health and safety of our visitors and residents alike from the spread of COVID-19. A 5-day mandatory quarantine will be required for travelers who do not participate […]

ets.hawaii.gov

 

[ljmiii]

Have you compared Alaska with Hawaii?...Hawaii has had 7466 cases since June 6th, Alaska only 4638.

Well, yes. Alaska reports 690 cases and 5 deaths per 100K people and Hawaii reports 511 cases and 4 deaths per 100K people. Even if you use the post June 6th numbers you quoted Alaska has 634 cases per 100K and Hawaii has 527.

Though what worries me more about the comparison is that Alaska's testing numbers have fallen off a cliff - they are down to a 7-day average of around 2,500 tests per day from a plateau of around 5,500 in late July through mid August.

Meanwhile Hawaii's testing numbers have remained strong and they are aggressively expanding their COVID testing program conducting 60,000 tests in the upcoming days. Leeward Community College was overwhelmed with the response and Hawaii is closing down H3 Tuesday and Thursday next week to turn it into a COVID test site. Mayor Caldwell said that they will soon use the Aloha Bowl as well.

Hopefully the data from the expanded testing data combined with the 14 day stay-at-home order will flatten the curve in Hawaii. And at least allow for inter-island travel in the near future. And then trans-Pacific travel once those pieces are put in place.

 

[DannyTS]

Well, yes. Alaska reports 690 cases and 5 deaths per 100K people and Hawaii reports 511 cases and 4 deaths per 100K people. Even if you use the post June 6th numbers you quoted Alaska has 634 cases per 100K and Hawaii has 527.

Though what worries me more about the comparison is that Alaska's testing numbers have fallen off a cliff - they are down to a 7-day average of around 2,500 tests per day from a plateau of around 5,500 in late July through mid August.

Meanwhile Hawaii's testing numbers have remained strong and they are aggressively expanding their COVID testing program conducting 60,000 tests in the upcoming days. Leeward Community College was overwhelmed with the response and Hawaii is closing down H3 Tuesday and Thursday next week to turn it into a COVID test site. Mayor Caldwell said that they will soon use the Aloha Bowl as well.

Hopefully the data from the expanded testing data combined with the 14 day stay-at-home order will flatten the curve in Hawaii. And at least allow for inter-island travel in the near future. And then trans-Pacific travel once those pieces are put in place.

Have you factored in that to date Alaska has had 4 times more tests per capita than Hawaii?

All State Comparison of Testing Efforts - Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center

Through up-to-date visuals, track how testing volume, positivity, and proportion give a sense of whether the occurrence of new cases is slowing or growing.

coronavirus.jhu.edu

 

[ljmiii]

Have you factored in that Alaska has had 4 times more tests than Hawaii to date?

Just under twice as many tests - 401,637 vs 233,465 - and a bit over three times as many tests per capita, but yes.

What worries me about Alaska's testing numbers is that the states that are doing 'well' (e.g. NY, NJ, VT) have continued to increase testing or at least maintain their numbers. Other states like FL appear to have given up and are allowing the disease to run rampant and unreported. Having AK fall into the later camp would be unfortunate for those who live there. That said, Alaska's %positive rate still looks good and their tracking system is adequate.

None of which really has anything to do with Hawaii's predicament. They were undeniably caught flatfooted by the dramatic rise of cases that started in late July on O'ahu and spread from there to the other islands. They had nowhere near enough trackers, ICU beds, or testing to deal with the outbreak. And they are belatedly springing into action, reissuing orders for O'ahu and stopping travel from the island, hiring new trackers, adding 24 new negative pressure ICU beds to Queen’s Medical Center, and performing 60,000 tests in the upcoming days.

At this point adding yet more visitors would be adding fuel to the fire (it isn't as if visitors, residents, and 'exempt' arrivals like the military have ever stopped coming). As I said above, flatten the curve, lift the order, resume flights from O'ahu, and eventually allow trans-Pacific visitors to enter without quarantine.

 

[DannyTS]

I still do not see that Alaska has a testing problem. About a month ago they were testing a lot more than NY, now the are testing about 10% less, not that relevant IMO.

New York tests/ 1 million people

Alaska tests / 1 million people

 

[DannyTS]

Inconsistencies like this make people ask what is going on. Temptation island will start production while many businesses are closed.

"Trade Winds Production’s health security plan includes COVID-19 testing for all cast and crew flying to Maui 72 hours prior to their flight and direct transportation to the Andaz resort, where they will complete a modified seven-day quarantine." Can tourists have the same treatment?

Reality series ‘Temptation Island’ to begin filming again on Maui | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Maui filming of the reality series “Temptation Island” is back on again after obtaining authorization from Mayor Michael Victorino following a review of the production company’s health security plan and testing protocols.

www.staradvertiser.com

 

[DeniseM]

Great! - This means the state is actively working on their process to safely allow visitors in. I think this is an important experiment to see what parameters have to be in place to prevent the transmission of C-19, to or from visitors. If a highly supervised situation like this is successful, it paves the way for larger tourist programs. If it isn't successful, and they have a C-19 breakout, that is also useful info. It's a step in the right direction!

 

[DannyTS]

Great! - This means the state is actively working on their process to safely allow visitors in. I think this is an important experiment to see what parameters have to be in place to prevent the transmission of C-19, to or from visitors. If a highly supervised situation like this is successful, it paves the way for larger tourist programs. If it isn't successful, and they have a C-19 breakout, that is also useful info. It's a step in the right direction!

Or this is just one of the many exceptions they have made for those with connections. When they have so many problems now, why do they have to divert staff resources for a reality show? The optics are terrible.

 

[Tamaradarann]

Great! - This means the state is actively working on their process to safely allow visitors in. I think this is an important experiment to see what parameters have to be in place to prevent the transmission of C-19, to or from visitors. If a highly supervised situation like this is successful, it paves the way for larger tourist programs. If it isn't successful, and they have a C-19 breakout, that is also useful info. It's a step in the right direction!

I have to agree with you that this is baby steps in the right direction. Since we have given up plans for a 2020 return to Hawaii it doesn't really matter right now. Our current plans are for fall of 2021 so they have plenty of time to play around with a plan for tourists to come with a 14 day quarantine. We are now actually on "Hawaiian time" with our plans for returning to Hawaii. However, for others that are hoping to come within the next year. and for businesses that are desperate for tourist to come so they can stay in business and be viable again the baby steps are really not enough.

 

[jabberwocky]

Or this is just one of the many exceptions they have made for those with connections. When they have so many problems now, why do they have to divert staff resources for a reality show? The optics are terrible.

The optics might be bad - but if you are going to make an exception - it should be something that has a purpose.

Likely there are few state resources being used - there is probably a provision of the agreement that the show would provide all testing and pay for monitoring of the program (similar to the NHL playoff bubble experiment currently underway.) The 14 days was always pretty arbitrary and based on extreme cases. The vast majority who display symptoms do so in less than half the time. This exception seems to be a recognition of that fact and a good way to test.

I’m all for the experimentation and trying limited openings if it gets us closer to bring more comfortable with the disease and understanding how to control the spread without overwhelming healthcare systems.

 

[csodjd]

Well, yes. Alaska reports 690 cases and 5 deaths per 100K people and Hawaii reports 511 cases and 4 deaths per 100K people. Even if you use the post June 6th numbers you quoted Alaska has 634 cases per 100K and Hawaii has 527.

Though what worries me more about the comparison is that Alaska's testing numbers have fallen off a cliff - they are down to a 7-day average of around 2,500 tests per day from a plateau of around 5,500 in late July through mid August.

Meanwhile Hawaii's testing numbers have remained strong and they are aggressively expanding their COVID testing program conducting 60,000 tests in the upcoming days. Leeward Community College was overwhelmed with the response and Hawaii is closing down H3 Tuesday and Thursday next week to turn it into a COVID test site. Mayor Caldwell said that they will soon use the Aloha Bowl as well.

Hopefully the data from the expanded testing data combined with the 14 day stay-at-home order will flatten the curve in Hawaii. And at least allow for inter-island travel in the near future. And then trans-Pacific travel once those pieces are put in place.

Raw numbers are interesting, but context is necessary to give them meaning. Context here means capacity/ability to handle severe cases, and sufficient contact tracing capability to find and contain spread. If comparing numbers in Alaska to Hawaii, these tell us whether the numbers point to a problem or not. If Hawaii has "better numbers" but less capacity to handle sick people and less ability to contain breakouts, Hawaii doesn't really have "better numbers." So comparisons like this are more complicated than just how many.

 

[DannyTS]

The optics might be bad - but if you are going to make an exception - it should be something that has a purpose.

Likely there are few state resources being used - there is probably a provision of the agreement that the show would provide all testing and pay for monitoring of the program (similar to the NHL playoff bubble experiment currently underway.) The 14 days was always pretty arbitrary and based on extreme cases. The vast majority who display symptoms do so in less than half the time. This exception seems to be a recognition of that fact and a good way to test.

I’m all for the experimentation and trying limited openings if it gets us closer to bring more comfortable with the disease and understanding how to control the spread without overwhelming healthcare systems.

I do not see the scientific basis to use this to bring back tens of thousands of visitors.
For the shooting I think they will fly around 100 people to Hawaii. The odds that a mainland member of the crew is actually infected are extremely small, less than 1 per 1000 (they are tested before arrival).

I did not mean that this is using financial resources but rather human resources. One can bet that multiple departments and very important officials had to plan and approve this plan. I just do not see how it is worth it for 7 million dollars when they are bleeding billions.

 

[DeniseM]

My cup is half full - your cup is half empty. It's a choice.

 

[JIMinNC]

Other states like FL appear to have given up and are allowing the disease to run rampant and unreported.

I'm not sure that is true for FL and some of the other states (like Arizona) where cases surged in July. In both AZ and FL, while total tests have declined along with cases, I have read several articles that say this is due to reduced demand for tests due to fewer people with symptoms and fewer contacts. The validation of this is hospitalizations, which have dropped by about half since July/early August in both AZ and FL. That would seems to imply that the case declines there are a reflection of less virus in the population, not just less testing.

Since this whole thing started there has been a narrative that FL, GA, SC, AL, and other southern states have mismanaged this thing badly, but the fact remains that total cases and deaths per capita in these "mismanaged" states are a fraction of the per capital rates in the "well managed" states of NY/NJ/CT. And Hawaii was praised early on for their "great" response, now look at them - the highest rate of growth in cases in the US. At the same time, the unemployment rates in these "well managed" states in July were:

NY 15.9%
NJ 13.8%
CT 10.2%
HI 13.1%

By contrast, the "mismanaged" states with lower cases and deaths had the following unemployment rates:

AZ 10.6%
GA 7.8%
FL 11.3%
SC 8.6%
AL 7.9%

When I look at the case/death numbers alongside the unemployment rates, it seems the mismanaged states look to be doing a lot better than the general perception.

 

[Ken555]

Paradise lost: How Hawaii went from Covid-19 star to cautionary tale

Paradise lost: How Hawaii went from COVID-19 star to cautionary tale — POLITICO

The state's infection surge shows the risk of complacency, say local officials who fault the governor for neglecting basic public health measures.

apple.news

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[DannyTS]

My cup is half full - your cup is half empty. It's a choice.

People need to see a coherent strategy. Granting exceptions will only confuse and frustrate the locals and make them act less responsibly. How does the Emergency Order read now? Probably something like this: with the exception of the Paradise Island reality show crew, every visitor to Hawaii has to quarantine for 14 days.

 

[DannyTS]

"The gist of the WSJ piece, available to subscribers online here, is that there is now five months of global data showing no relationship between the severity of lockdowns and any consistent reduction in coronavirus transmission or Covid-19 deaths. The only certainty is that lockdowns have resulted in the world’s worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Targeted interventions could save lives at far less cost. But we don’t do targeted interventions here. "

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/news/2020/08/28/blunt-and-costly-lockdowns.html?fbclid=IwAR2J0jmrHHbZY4oTKX90n2zDJkIDUVqIFH2l1JHrPli4ASUA5Qr7nRWNaQE

 

[csodjd]

I'm not sure that is true for FL and some of the other states (like Arizona) where cases surged in July. In both AZ and FL, while total tests have declined along with cases, I have read several articles that say this is due to reduced demand for tests due to fewer people with symptoms and fewer contacts. The validation of this is hospitalizations, which have dropped by about half since July/early August in both AZ and FL. That would seems to imply that the case declines there are a reflection of less virus in the population, not just less testing.

Since this whole thing started there has been a narrative that FL, GA, SC, AL, and other southern states have mismanaged this thing badly, but the fact remains that total cases and deaths per capita in these "mismanaged" states are a fraction of the per capital rates in the "well managed" states of NY/NJ/CT. And Hawaii was praised early on for their "great" response, now look at them - the highest rate of growth in cases in the US. At the same time, the unemployment rates in these "well managed" states in July were:

NY 15.9%
NJ 13.8%
CT 10.2%
HI 13.1%

By contrast, the "mismanaged" states with lower cases and deaths had the following unemployment rates:

AZ 10.6%
GA 7.8%
FL 11.3%
SC 8.6%
AL 7.9%

When I look at the case/death numbers alongside the unemployment rates, it seems the mismanaged states look to be doing a lot better than the general perception.

How does that reconcile with this data from the Univ. of Washington? This is sorted by total cases per capita. I don't have the data, but if you were to remove from this cases occurring in March/April so this reflected only May 1 to now, I believe NY would drop a bunch and the 8 states with the HIGHEST case count per capita would be Arizona + the Southeast. Granted, cases is not the same as hospitalizations, so the data on the latter might be different.

Notable, if you've been following this data, is that NY, NJ and Mass dominated the cases/1M population for a long time. And over the past two months the Southern states and Arizona have just climbed and climbed as the Northeast got spread under control, but the Southeast/Arizona case counts grew and grew. I've watched NY drop from #1 to #7 over the past 4-5 weeks.

In my view this cannot reflect any randomness. There is a systemic difference between the 8 states in this top 9 (excluding NY) and others.

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

 

[csodjd]

"The gist of the WSJ piece, available to subscribers online here, is that there is now five months of global data showing no relationship between the severity of lockdowns and any consistent reduction in coronavirus transmission or Covid-19 deaths. The only certainty is that lockdowns have resulted in the world’s worst economic downturn since the Great Depression. Targeted interventions could save lives at far less cost. But we don’t do targeted interventions here. "

https://www.bizjournals.com/pacific/news/2020/08/28/blunt-and-costly-lockdowns.html?fbclid=IwAR2J0jmrHHbZY4oTKX90n2zDJkIDUVqIFH2l1JHrPli4ASUA5Qr7nRWNaQE

Seems like hindsight analysis to me. If we knew then what we know now, maybe. But we didn't, and could not have, know then what we know now. In March what we knew was that a lot of people were dying from a highly contagious new virus that had no treatment and no immunity. Not much more than that.

No doubt IF we knew in March that bars, indoor places with poor air circulation, large gatherings, etc., were the source of much spread, and that there were a LOT of asymptomatic spreaders, yes, things could have been done differently. So what? Nobody knew. The severe lockdown was because we didn't know and thought maybe it would be best to avoid millions of people dying.

 

[DannyTS]

How does that reconcile with this data from the Univ. of Washington? This is sorted by total cases per capita. I don't have the data, but if you were to remove from this cases occurring in March/April so this reflected only May 1 to now, I believe NY would drop a bunch and the 8 states with the HIGHEST case count per capita would be Arizona + the Southeast. Granted, cases is not the same as hospitalizations, so the data on the latter might be different.

Notable, if you've been following this data, is that NY, NJ and Mass dominated the cases/1M population for a long time. And over the past two months the Southern states and Arizona have just climbed and climbed as the Northeast got spread under control, but the Southeast/Arizona case counts grew and grew. I've watched NY drop from #1 to #7 over the past 4-5 weeks.

In my view this cannot reflect any randomness. There is a systemic difference between the 8 states in this top 9 (excluding NY) and others.

View attachment 25685

United States COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer

United States Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.

www.worldometers.info

Funny, I have been making the same argument about Sweden: look at the number of deaths after May, they kept on going down even if they did not lock down in mid March. The peak of deaths was April 9th

 

[rickandcindy23]

Deaths in Hawaii, 62 from Covid, either directly or indirectly, meaning most of the deaths likely had underlying health problems or were elderly. Remember that comorbidity is a huge factor in deaths. Do not discount that is as the underlying cause of deaths we have seen in this country. When you get the flu or pneumonia, age and health have everything to do with how your body handles the illness.

 

[csodjd]

Funny, I have been making the same argument about Sweden: look at the number of deaths after May, they kept on going down even if they did not lock down in mid March. The peak of deaths was April 9th

The problem with deaths as a measure is that we started with no knowledge whatsoever of HOW to treat the condition or WHO was most at risk and needed to be aggressively treated. We didn't even know WHAT the cause or mechanism of death was so as to intervene.

Today we have some knowledge and tools available that allow people that would have died in March to never even reach the stage of needing a ventilator. Doctors know much about the disease process and have a lot of experience to draw from. They have clinical data to help identify the "at risk" admissions. Heck, they even know people do better lying face down!

 

[DannyTS]

The problem with deaths as a measure is that we started with no knowledge whatsoever of HOW to treat the condition or WHO was most at risk and needed to be aggressively treated. We didn't even know WHAT the cause or mechanism of death was so as to intervene.

Today we have some knowledge and tools available that allow people that would have died in March to never even reach the stage of needing a ventilator. Doctors know much about the disease process and have a lot of experience to draw from. They have clinical data to help identify the "at risk" admissions. Heck, they even know people do better lying face down!

If that is the case, why is the number of deaths/ 1 million people in the US approaching Sweden? The projections are the US will pass Sweden in the next few days.