Will this Covid spread continue to level down?

[davidvel]

Someone posted that we should be following the Swedish model. My question is, have you looked at the results of the Swedish model in Sweden. If we had followed the Swedish method we would have 177,000+ deaths in the US, rather than the current 132,000+ deaths. Somehow that doesn't work for me.

One of the major problems in the US is by leaving each state to determine their own guidelines and rules, we have 50 different models. Some states have been quite strict, Hawaii jumps to the front, and others have been cavalier, FL, TX and AZ come to mind.

There continues to be no national strategy and probably won't be one for about 7 more months. Leaders lead, in either a positive manner or a negative manner. But which ever way they go they will have followers.

I'd place a wager that the US will surpass, if not come close, to Sweden's death per population rate.

#	Country	New Deaths	Deaths/1M pop
7	Sweden		537
9	USA	145	399

 

[bluehende]

New York "doing well" is questionable as NY still has the highest new deaths of any state.

But if people think they are "doing well" at the moment, they did not "do well" at all. We can't forget all those bodies piled up in trailers. The most vulnerable, who were going to die from C19, likely have died.

CA, FLA, AZ and TX have a lot of catching up to do:

USA	Total	New	Deaths/
State	Deaths	Deaths	1M pop
New Jersey	15,250	17	1,717
New York	32,215	24	1,656
Connecticut	4,335		1,216
Massachusetts	8,149		1,182
Arizona	1,805	17	248
Florida	3,703	17	172
California	6,314		160
Texas	2,621		90

At this point I think we all owe NY and Boston a debt of gratitude. It is not good to be the first to deal with a novel virus. At this point the knowledge gained from their pain has given us a lot of tools to deal with this disease. If NY and Boston were to have the same problem today they would deal with it much better. Even if the nightmare that we all basically will get it over time comes to be I think we can all agree we want it later. IMHO your chances of survival are significantly higher now than in March. Every month we stay healthy before getting this is important.

 

[am1]

New York "doing well" is questionable as NY still has the highest new deaths of any state.

But if people think they are "doing well" at the moment, they did not "do well" at all. We can't forget all those bodies piled up in trailers. The most vulnerable, who were going to die from C19, likely have died.

CA, FLA, AZ and TX have a lot of catching up to do:

USA	Total	New	Deaths/
State	Deaths	Deaths	1M pop
New Jersey	15,250	17	1,717
New York	32,215	24	1,656
Connecticut	4,335		1,216
Massachusetts	8,149		1,182
Arizona	1,805	17	248
Florida	3,703	17	172
California	6,314		160
Texas	2,621		90

Deaths trail new cases. Compared to before New York is doing well.

 

[davidvel]

Deaths trail new cases. Compared to before New York is doing well.

Deaths trail new cases nationwide right now. Nothing particular to NY.

 

[CO skier]

At this point I think we all owe NY and Boston a debt of gratitude. It is not good to be the first to deal with a novel virus. At this point the knowledge gained from their pain has given us a lot of tools to deal with this disease.

Such as?

Because I do not see any "tools" other than "pauses" in the failed shutdowns and unenforceable "quarantines" being used as tools.

 

[easyrider]

Recently, there is talk of herd immunity being very close or already happening.

Bill

The Tricky Math of Herd Immunity for COVID-19

Herd immunity differs from place to place, and many factors influence how it's calculated.

www.quantamagazine.org

 

[CO skier]

I did not bother to watch the video. Sweden is the country closest to some kind of "herd immunity" by a few months, yet they are nowhere close to achieving it. There is no simple path to beating Covid-19.

 

[Brett]

At this point I think we all owe NY and Boston a debt of gratitude. It is not good to be the first to deal with a novel virus. At this point the knowledge gained from their pain has given us a lot of tools to deal with this disease. If NY and Boston were to have the same problem today they would deal with it much better. Even if the nightmare that we all basically will get it over time comes to be I think we can all agree we want it later. IMHO your chances of survival are significantly higher now than in March. Every month we stay healthy before getting this is important.

yes

Wall Street Journal Monday July 6 2020

 

[bluehende]

Such as?

Because I do not see any "tools" other than "pauses" in the failed shutdowns and unenforceable "quarantines" being used as tools.

How about the delayed usage of respirators and longer use of higher rates of oxygen. How about the fact the patients are now moved on their stomach instead of the back. How about remdesivir, All of these things were learned in NY and Boston. But of course focus on the word "tools" instead of what I said. You conflated number of cases with survivability of a case. Those are 2 very different issues. Of course if you want to talk the other issue, a mask is not a hammer but the virus may beg to differ.

Respiratory Support in COVID-19 Patients, with a Focus on Resource-Limited Settings

The ongoing novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is threatening the global human population, including in countries with resource-limited health facilities. Severe bilateral pneumonia is the main feature of severe COVID-19, and adequate ventilatory support is crucial for patient...

www.ajtmh.org

 

["Roger"]

Recently, there is talk of herd immunity being very close or already happening.

Study shows Spain far from having 'herd immunity' to virus

A second round of random testing in Spain for antibodies to the new coronavirus indicates that a third of those infected do not develop symptoms, Spanish health authorities said Thursday.

medicalxpress.com

 

[Ken555]

Re herd immunity, this report was just published today.

Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain (ENE-COVID): a nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study

The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even in hotspot areas. Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial proportion of people with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 did not have a PCR test and at least a third of infections determined by serology were asymptomatic. These results emphasise the need for maintaining public health measures to avoid a new epidemic wave.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext

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[billymach4]

This is just my opinion, feeling, prediction about this crisis.

The country is in a health care tailspin. At some level at the federal level either by a congressional veto proof legislative measure or Presidential order we will have to shut down hard again and remain shut. I don't see any way out of this since there is not any vaccine available.

I may be wrong but every day the data is not going in the right direction. At some point the system will break down again.

 

[cman]

This is just my opinion, feeling, prediction about this crisis.

The country is in a health care tailspin. At some level at the federal level either by a congressional veto proof legislative measure or Presidential order we will have to shut down hard again and remain shut. I don't see any way out of this since there is not any vaccine available.

I may be wrong but every day the data is not going in the right direction. At some point the system will break down again.

Wish I could disagree with you, but I think you are spot on.

 

[billymach4]

This is just my opinion, feeling, prediction about this crisis.

The country is in a health care tailspin. At some level at the federal level either by a congressional veto proof legislative measure or Presidential order we will have to shut down hard again and remain shut. I don't see any way out of this since there is not any vaccine available.

I may be wrong but every day the data is not going in the right direction. At some point the system will break down again.

Well this was just yesterday. So sorry for those in California that are losing their jobs and livelihood.

 

[Rocknie]

By wearing a mask EVERYWHERE in public we would slow the spread of coronavirus! Until that is done numbers will continue to climb!

 

[billymach4]

By wearing a mask EVERYWHERE in public we would slow the spread of coronavirus! Until that is done numbers will continue to climb!

Spot on! We have a winner!

 

[pedro47]

The temperatures in Virginia for the past seven (7) days have average over 91 degrees and the coronavirus have risen every day. It’s have been Hot and very Humid

 

[bbodb1]

By wearing a mask EVERYWHERE in public we would slow the spread of coronavirus! Until that is done numbers will continue to climb!

And by staying home, you drop the spread even further and faster...

 

[pedro47]

I liked the OP topics of this thread.

Will This Covid Spread Continue To Level Down ?

Have I miss something about COVID-19 and the continuing spike of this coronavirus in the United States.?

Please wear a mask, wash your hands and practice social distancing.

Please Stay Home.

 

[Ken555]

I liked the OP topics of this thread.

Will This Covid Spread Continue To Level Down ?

Have I miss something about COVID-19 and the continuing spike of this coronavirus in the United States.?

Please wear a mask, wash your hands and practice social distancing.

Please Stay Home.

Did you see this post?

What we’ve learned about how to catch — or avoid — covid-19

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-weve-learned-about-how-to-catch--or-avoid--covid-19/2020/07/17/08a964bc-c6ca-11ea-b037-f9711f89ee46_story.html?hpid=hp_save-opinions-float-right-4-0_opinion-card-b-right%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans CAN JUST breathing the air get you infected with the...

tugbbs.com

 

[am1]

There is a path to bearing COVID. Well other then no contento t with others but that is not possible logistically and by people not caring. What I have not seen talked about is what a cure or first a vaccine is worth to company that comes up with it? Obviously to the world as a whole it’s priceless.

How long is everyone willing or can wait it out? Financially a lot have very few options but a lot do not really know what poor is. Hopefully as little as possible end up there.

How many lives are people willing to lose?

 

[rjp123]

As an American abroad, it is very sad to see how the politicians have politicized the pandemic at the expense of citizens. This is so wrong. Unfortunately I don't see this situation improving.

To my immediate family who still lives in the US, I've suggested they get out (they fortunately can). They are making their plans now to temporarily leave.

Wear a mask when out, stay at home and isolate. The virus is no joke - regardless of age. My wife's a PhD in Toxicology and this thing is insidious for all and dangerous for many (regardless of age).

It's not 100% about death. Many of those who survive have significant health issues afterwards, some of which will impact them for life.

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[Glynda]

As an American abroad, it is very sad to see how the politicians have politicized the pandemic at the expense of citizens. This is so wrong. Unfortunately I don't see this situation improving.

To my immediate family who still lives in the US, I've suggested they get out (they fortunately can). They are making their plans now to temporarily leave.

Wear a mask when out, stay at home and isolate. The virus is no joke - regardless of age. My wife's a PhD in Toxicology and this thing is insidious for all and dangerous for many (regardless of age).

It's not 100% about death. Many of those who survive have significant health issues afterwards, some of which will impact them for life.

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That's what most here arguing the statistics, shut-downs, and masks are ignoring. It's not just about life or death. It's also about possibly of never being the same again!

 

[rjp123]

And wear a mask - not to protect yourself, but to protect others. Be a good human.

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[DavidnRobin]

Some (Scientists among us) may find this interesting.
@DeniseM - this is an offshoot of the previous publication dealing with the factors (mainly immune related) that lead to serious issues with CV.
Goes to the reasons why some get sicker than others.

The trinity of COVID-19: immunity, inflammation and intervention - Nature Reviews Immunology

In the short time since SARS-CoV-2 infections emerged in humans, much has been learned about the immunological processes that underlie the clinical manifestation of COVID-19. Here, the authors provide an overview of the pathophysiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection and discuss potential therapeutic...

www.nature.com

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