Will this Covid spread continue to level down?

[Ken555]

How can there be accurate numbers and why does there there need to be an excuse ?

The best numbers known would be hospital information, imo. There is a know number of deaths and a known number of recoveries. Using these numbers the mortality rate is about 20% of those who are admitted to hospitals with covid 19. This is some what accurate. If a person believed the numbers false then these numbers would still represent a range of best and worse case senarios.

All other numbers are data used to determine an estimate only.

Bill

Did you read the article I posted? If not, please do so.


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[easyrider]

Did you read the article I posted? If not, please do so.


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Yes, I did. For the article to be true a person would need to believe that doctors are falsifying information. I don't think they are as there isn't any reason for doctors to do this.

But for kicks and giggles, lets assume they are manipulating the data. It can only be manipulated to a certain extent when comparing hospital mortality to hospital admissions to get a percentage. If they under count or over count it doesn't mater as the real percentage is based on mortality over admissions.

I don't consider Politico a reliable science type media. We all know why people use media like this to support their opinion. Maybe using the CDC numbers is better in this situation, imo.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

Bill

 

[Ken555]

Yes, I did. For the article to be true a person would need to believe that doctors are falsifying information. I don't think they are as there isn't any reason for doctors to do this.

But for kicks and giggles, lets assume they are manipulating the data. It can only be manipulated to a certain extent when comparing hospital mortality to hospital admissions to get a percentage. If they under count or over count it doesn't mater as the real percentage is based on mortality over admissions.

I don't consider Politico a reliable science type media. We all know why people use media like this to support their opinion. Maybe using the CDC numbers is better in this situation, imo.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

Bill

I’m sure we will see more articles like this in the coming weeks. Watch for it and don’t be surprised. You know, for kicks and giggles.


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[Monykalyn]

Wisconsin Sees Highest Single Day Rise in Coronavirus Cases and Deaths Since Outbreak Began

This is almost exactly two weeks after the Wisconsin Supreme Court invalidated the state's SIP order, and residents packed the local bars.

And yet...hmmm-reading beyond the headlines the state also recorded a record number of tests. Last time they recorded >500 confirmed cases they tested 6000, this time that would be over 10,000. Quite a different picture than what a click baity headline proclaims.

September is a topic that many scientist and doctors agree on. If the second wave is bad there would likely be a third wave.

No not all scientists agree. And studies now coming out that asymptomatic may not be anywhere near as infectious as the first alarmists thought.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/covidnet/COVID19_3.html
the weekly rates for Georgia-the state where cases and hospitals were to be overwhelmed after the governor started opening things up in April. There is a lag time in reporting - yet the trend is sharply down...which was the goal of the lockdown. Let's not continually move the goalposts of no more cases or even no more "spikes" of cases with the (also stated goal) of more testing.

 

[bbodb1]

The point though @easyrider is a lack of a reporting standard allows inconsistent data to be created - in my mind, that is a problem that should not exist.

How are deaths related to COVID 19 being classified and counted? This standard should be uniform throughout the country, yet that does not seem to be the case. Without meaning to be morbid, are all the deaths in NYC COVID 19 related? With the backlog in the coroner's office, how can we know this?

 

[Panina]

This is a new observation. Maybe older folks are following guidelines more then the young?

Half of coronavirus cases in Washington state are under the age of 40

The coronavirus is moving from older to younger residents in Washington state. Half of the confirmed cases in Washington by early May are under the age of 40, marking a significant shift from the e…

nypost.com

 

[easyrider]

And yet...hmmm-reading beyond the headlines the state also recorded a record number of tests. Last time they recorded >500 confirmed cases they tested 6000, this time that would be over 10,000. Quite a different picture than what a click baity headline proclaims.

Yes, test are finally available. The reason test were not available is because of FDA regulations that were recently relaxed by executive order. Many companies had tests available but the red tape prevented these tests. Currently, our health department has been testing many people and the result is many people test positive. So many that our county has the highest positive infection rate on the west coast with about 90 deaths.

Yesterday I read that there were 250 more positive tests with no deaths for days. I think this will be the trend with testing.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

The point though @easyrider is a lack of a reporting standard allows inconsistent data to be created - in my mind, that is a problem that should not exist.

How are deaths related to COVID 19 being classified and counted? This standard should be uniform throughout the country, yet that does not seem to be the case. Without meaning to be morbid, are all the deaths in NYC COVID 19 related? With the backlog in the coroner's office, how can we know this?

I agree but that isn't how they keep count. The FDA has a form that allows cause of death to be counted as covid 19 when the patient presents with symptoms. Even if the non-tested causes of death with covid 19 symptoms were not used in the statistics there would still remain a very large number of covid 19 deaths in the hospitals. I think the mortality rate in hospital cases is about 20% and declining.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

This is a new observation. Maybe older folks are following guidelines more then the young?

Half of coronavirus cases in Washington state are under the age of 40

The coronavirus is moving from older to younger residents in Washington state. Half of the confirmed cases in Washington by early May are under the age of 40, marking a significant shift from the e…

nypost.com

This is because of the age of essential workers, which in our state includes farm workers. The testing for covid 19 in our county especially includes farm workers and many do test positive. I don't see the social gatherings with young people being the reason why our rate is the highest on the west coast. It is because our county and state is very agriculturally aligned.

Bill

 

[pedro47]

I feel the key to reopening and traveling will be in the hand of Orlando,FL. , New York City and Las Vegas.
If New York City, Vegas , Orlando Disney and Orlando Universal can set a good example for social distancing with large crowds. The spread of Covid 19 Will truly begins to level down.

 

[billymach4]

Wow I looked back at the date I started this thread. May 22, 2020. The country was looking good. Cases were trending down.
Then on May 25, 2020 the George Floyd incident set off a firestorm.

Since then the Northeast states have at least got a hold of the spread.

Unfortunately the rest of the country has not been able to control the spread. Very disappointed at the segment of the US population that just can't adjust their behavior.

 

[Ken555]

Very disappointed at the segment of the US population that just can't adjust their behavior.

There's quite a lot to be disappointed about, not just one particular segment.

 

[am1]

Cases will continue to rise but locals can get a handle on it. Places in Asia, then Europe, New York is doing well. But the next hotspot can break out at any moment or return where people start to relax. If you are okay with people getting infected and dying then do not worry but if not take your precautions. If you are not doing your part you are for a certain percentage of people dying. It’s really that easy. Birthday parties, vacations, protests do not matter to COVID 19. Any contact with others makes it worse for all of us but especially the most vulnerable based on age and resources.

 

[geist1223]

I will not comment concerning what I think because then this thread would get shut down for going political.

 

[CO skier]

When will "experts" stop candy-coating this epidemic and fooling people it can be "contained" in the US? "Experts" led us (and public policy makers) to believe a 14-day shutdown was the "answer." 2.5 MONTHS later the shutdown meant nothing and we are again facing the same decisions from 2.5 MONTHS ago -- more daily cases than ever.

It is waaaay past time to acknowledge the inevitable; shutdowns and unenforceable "quarantines" of the healthy are a failed public policy. 94% of the US population is still vulnerable to Covid-19. (That is something the flatten-the-curve "experts" did not inform the politicians and public. What happens after we "flatten-the-curve? Hint: There will be a Spike to the pre-shutdown, inevitable infection curve.) Take reasonable precautions, preserve something of the economy like Sweden did, and accept the fact there is an undeniable mortality rate.

 

[Ken555]

When will "experts" stop candy-coating this epidemic and fooling people it can be "contained" in the US? "Experts" led us (and public policy makers) to believe a 14-day shutdown was the "answer." 2.5 MONTHS later the shutdown meant nothing and we are again facing the same decisions from 2.5 MONTHS ago -- more daily cases than ever.

It is waaaay past time to acknowledge the inevitable; shutdowns and unenforceable "quarantines" of the healthy are a failed public policy. 94% of the US population is still vulnerable to Covid-19. (That is something the flatten-the-curve "experts" did not inform the politicians and public. What happens after we "flatten-the-curve? Hint: There will be a Spike to the pre-shutdown, inevitable infection curve.) Take reasonable precautions, preserve something of the economy like Sweden did, and accept the fact there is an undeniable mortality rate.

The majority of states did not follow their own minimum guidelines for reopening. We did not follow the recommendations, so don’t even pretend that we did! Your statement is simply laughable.


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[CO skier]

The majority of states did not follow their own minimum guidelines for reopening.

The majority of states DID follow the recommendation to shutdown. Where did that get them? Back to near Square One. And we are seeing the effects of opening society. So don't even pretend to believe shutdowns got us anywhere. 94% of the US population has not been exposed to Covid-19. Yes, they will eventually catch Covid-19.

 

[Ken555]

The majority of states DID follow the recommendation to shutdown. Where did that get them? Back to near Square One. And we are seeing the effects of opening society. So don't even pretend to believe shutdowns got us anywhere.

False. The majority of states started to follow the recommendations and then reopened before they met them. This info is everywhere...


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[CO skier]

False. The majority of states started to follow the recommendations and then reopened before they met them. This info is everywhere...

So, the shutdowns got them nowhere.

 

[Ken555]

So, the shutdowns got them nowhere.

Glad to see you are no longer posting fake news.

Ask yourself why the states reopened without meeting their own requirements.


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[Bucky]

Not going to get better quick when we listen to politicians instead of infectious disease experts. It’s distressing to see them undermined and disregarded at every turn. It used to be we listened to our experts! Not so much anymore. CDC used to be the gold standard.now they have been made irrelevant. It’s a shame. This could have been brought under control quickly if everyone would have cooperated.

 

[DavidnRobin]

Apples to Apples
(Approximately the same population number)


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[bbodb1]

Apples to Apples
(Approximately the same population number)


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Are the testing rates similar?
If so, then I would agree with the produce analogy.

 

[Rjbeach2003]

Someone posted that we should be following the Swedish model. My question is, have you looked at the results of the Swedish model in Sweden. If we had followed the Swedish method we would have 177,000+ deaths in the US, rather than the current 132,000+ deaths. Somehow that doesn't work for me.

One of the major problems in the US is by leaving each state to determine their own guidelines and rules, we have 50 different models. Some states have been quite strict, Hawaii jumps to the front, and others have been cavalier, FL, TX and AZ come to mind.

There continues to be no national strategy and probably won't be one for about 7 more months. Leaders lead, in either a positive manner or a negative manner. But which ever way they go they will have followers.

 

[davidvel]

Cases will continue to rise but locals can get a handle on it. Places in Asia, then Europe, New York is doing well. But the next hotspot can break out at any moment or return where people start to relax. If you are okay with people getting infected and dying then do not worry but if not take your precautions. If you are not doing your part you are for a certain percentage of people dying. It’s really that easy. Birthday parties, vacations, protests do not matter to COVID 19. Any contact with others makes it worse for all of us but especially the most vulnerable based on age and resources.

New York "doing well" is questionable as NY still has the highest new deaths of any state.

But if people think they are "doing well" at the moment, they did not "do well" at all. We can't forget all those bodies piled up in trailers. The most vulnerable, who were going to die from C19, likely have died.

CA, FLA, AZ and TX have a lot of catching up to do:

USA	Total	New	Deaths/
State	Deaths	Deaths	1M pop
New Jersey	15,250	17	1,717
New York	32,215	24	1,656
Connecticut	4,335		1,216
Massachusetts	8,149		1,182
Arizona	1,805	17	248
Florida	3,703	17	172
California	6,314		160
Texas	2,621		90