Will this Covid spread continue to level down?

[Panina]

This line is the article “ Experts estimate that 25% to 75% of coronavirus infections may be asymptomatic” surprised me. The lower end I have heard before, the higher end not.

Health experts warn “silent spreaders” a bigger risk as U.S. reopens — Los Angeles Times

There’s increasing concern that people infected with COVID-19 who show no signs of illness are playing a large role in the transmission of COVID-19.

apple.news

 

[Bunk]

https://nypost.com/2020/05/25/viral-video-shows-nyc-store-mob-screaming-at-woman-without-mask/

Here's hoping it levels down quickly. When I first saw this video, I thought it was part of a science fiction movie. When I looked again, thanks to my TUG education, my next thoughts were that it is not healthy to yell because that could actually spread the virus, and it is not healthy to ignore social distancing in order to yell at someone. When I looked again, I noticed the irony that the guy on the left of the screen with his baseball cap backwards had his mask down but still seemed to be yelling at the lady both before and after he raised the mask to cover his mouth.

 

[PigsDad]

This line is the article “ Experts estimate that 25% to 75% of coronavirus infections may be asymptomatic” surprised me. The lower end I have heard before, the higher end not.

Interesting. I had the exact opposite reaction. I had heard several references of up to 80% asymptomatic, and was surprised by the 25% number.

Kurt

 

[davidvel]

This line is the article “ Experts estimate that 25% to 75% of coronavirus infections may be asymptomatic” surprised me. The lower end I have heard before, the higher end not.

Health experts warn “silent spreaders” a bigger risk as U.S. reopens — Los Angeles Times

There’s increasing concern that people infected with COVID-19 who show no signs of illness are playing a large role in the transmission of COVID-19.

apple.news

I just heard on news radio about the new study that found the 80% number.

 

[Panina]

I just heard on news radio about the new study that found the 80% number.

Did they say where? Or how they came to 80%?

 

[davidvel]

Did they say where? Or how they came to 80%?

Apparently a cruise to Antarctica.
All of the 217 people who remained on board were tested for COVID-19. More than half (59 percent) tested positive, but just 19 percent of those patients had symptoms. The other 81 percent were symptom-free.

NBC Story

 

[Panina]

Apparently a cruise to Antarctica.
All of the 217 people who remained on board were tested for COVID-19. More than half (59 percent) tested positive, but just 19 percent of those patients had symptoms. The other 81 percent were symptom-free.

NBC Story

Wow, that now confirms theories of why it spreads so easily, high % asymptomatic. I am also reading more and more about the masks reducing the spread with asymptomatic people too but numbers vary from 50% to 80%. No article says how they came up with those numbers. Seems more knowledge is emerging which is good. Just read also Virginia made it mandatory to wear masks indoors due to rising numbers.

 

[Sandy VDH]

Yes, that is why testing everyone, whether symptomatic or symptom free has to be improved. It is the ones that have it and don't know that I am most worried about.

 

[Panina]

Apparently a cruise to Antarctica.
All of the 217 people who remained on board were tested for COVID-19. More than half (59 percent) tested positive, but just 19 percent of those patients had symptoms. The other 81 percent were symptom-free.

NBC Story

Another article on the subject

Coronavirus study shows 81% aboard cruise ship were asymptomatic, raising concerns on lifting lockdown

A new study has revealed that more than 80 percent of passengers and crew members on a cruise ship that contracted COVID-19 were asymptomatic.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Blues]

Wisconsin Sees Highest Single Day Rise in Coronavirus Cases and Deaths Since Outbreak Began

This is almost exactly two weeks after the Wisconsin Supreme Court invalidated the state's SIP order, and residents packed the local bars.

 

[Ken555]

Sadly, we now can’t trust the numbers, so any conclusions you may think we have are wrong.

Bad state data hides coronavirus threat as Trump pushes reopening — POLITICO

Test counts inflated, death tolls deflated, metrics shifted.

apple.news

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[isisdave]

https://www.the-hospitalist.org/hos...rsal-testing-many-covid-19-pregnant-women-are and also a pre-paper at nejm.org

Tested all 215 women arriving to deliver babies at a NYC hospital over two weeks March-April.
33 were positive (14%), of these 29 (88% of the 33) had no symptoms.

 

[Panina]

Sadly, we now can’t trust the numbers, so any conclusions you may think we have are wrong.

Bad state data hides coronavirus threat as Trump pushes reopening — POLITICO

Test counts inflated, death tolls deflated, metrics shifted.

apple.news

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Whether it is true or not, the truth will come out. We live in a free nation, hospitals, staff, etc will speak up.

 

[geekette]

This is almost exactly two weeks after the Wisconsin Supreme Court invalidated the state's SIP order, and residents packed the local bars.

I wondered. Time passes so strangely, I can't keep track anymore. Thank you for passing along the expected, yet horrible, info.

 

[geekette]

Sadly, we now can’t trust the numbers, so any conclusions you may think we have are wrong.

Yes. Kerfuffle is the kindest term I can attach to the mishandling of data.

 

[geekette]

Whether it is true or not, the truth will come out. We live in a free nation, hospitals, staff, etc will speak up.

It's not really going to be up to them. They only know the patients they saw, and which they shepherded to the door, or, were with at expiration. I believe it is going to be the coroners and boards of health that get this together. I do agree, the truth will come out. Anyone intentionally hiding or changing data should face consequences. Accidents are a different matter. Crap happens, especially during stressful emergencies. Willfully misleading, however, is unacceptable.

 

[bbodb1]

Sadly, we now can’t trust the numbers, so any conclusions you may think we have are wrong.

Bad state data hides coronavirus threat as Trump pushes reopening — POLITICO

Test counts inflated, death tolls deflated, metrics shifted.

apple.news

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

While I understand the point you are making here, it would have been ideal for the CDC to define and publish THE standards with respect to COVID 19 data in order to ensure data consistency, quality and validity.

 

[easyrider]

Yes, covid 19 reported infection rates will trend downward. When we look at European countries that are about three weeks ahead of the USA regarding covid 19 we can see this happening.

Even though the reported infection rates are decreasing in the USA, the probability of a second wave this September is a topic that many scientist and doctors agree on. If the second wave is bad there would likely be a third wave.

Regarding real number statistics on covid 19 mortality , to me it looks like about an average of 20% of those that end up in the hospital with covid 19 actually die. The rate has been decreasing.

Interesting is that covid 19 will likely take about 2.5 years or longer to "burn out". Also interesting is a vaccine should be available by the time covid 19 "burns out".

Bill

https://www.businessinsider.com/second-wave-of-coronavirus-infections-may-peak-in-fall-2020-5

COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review

The week’s key data, narrative interpretations, & visualizations.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Ken555]

While I understand the point you are making here, it would have been ideal for the CDC to define and publish THE standards with respect to COVID 19 data in order to ensure data consistency, quality and validity.

We are so far from any definition of ideal that I can’t blame any one institution, but when politicians get involved with defining what counts as a death and instruct coroners not to release data (Georgia) then I can only surmise we are in a world of hurt.


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[geekette]

While I understand the point you are making here, it would have been ideal for the CDC to define and publish THE standards with respect to COVID 19 data in order to ensure data consistency, quality and validity.

Yes. We are without widespread standards. States are not reporting the same way, making any consolidation a bowl of apples and oranges with some bananas thrown in. Bad data is worse than no data.

Each of us could go to a different website and get different "answers", even if all say data is current as of right now. It's a wild west. Just more preventable mistakes.

 

[Rjbeach2003]

We can grab hold of stories on a daily basis and get more optimistic or pessimistic. I prefer to think in terms of what my family and I do, and think through the risks of various activities.

I am feeling comfortable walking, and moving past people in a wide arc, bike riding doing the same, though I ride much less on bike and walking only trails, as there are clumps of people. I ride in the bike lanes next to streets. We do get togethers with small number of people sitting at least 6 feet apart, outdoors. We get take out and groceries, wearing masks.

Activities we won't consider for some time are, going to casinos, going to bars, inside, eating in at restaurants, getting haircuts,etc.

There was a piece of information/advice going around during the AIDs epidemic. If you have sex with someone, you are having sex with everyone your partner has had sex with and so on. I was safe, in a committed marriage. Now that advice is of even greater value because you have more contact with people than you probably ever had sex with.

 

[Rjbeach2003]

I wanted to write this separately. The states with the lowest per capita death rate per million, are Hawaii-12, Alaska-14, Montana-16 and Wyoming-26.

My observation for the low rates are Hawaii-14 day quarantine, Alaska-isolation, Montana-isolation, Wyoming the same. During the beginning and growth of the virus impact, Hawaii would normally have millions of visitors, but the quarantine cut that number to thousands. Alaska, Montana and Wyoming have many fewer visitors during that same time period.

Yellowstone, Glacier Park and other areas are opening up, and expecting, hoping for many tourists from other parts of the country. We will have to see what happens to cases/acre in the Fall.

 

[easyrider]

Sadly, we now can’t trust the numbers, so any conclusions you may think we have are wrong.

Bad state data hides coronavirus threat as Trump pushes reopening — POLITICO

Test counts inflated, death tolls deflated, metrics shifted.

apple.news

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Even if the numbers are totally wrong the conclusions are usually right regarding the numbers. The reason is because there is a best case scenario and a worse case scenario. Somewhere in-between is where we end up.

Bill

 

[Ken555]

Even if the numbers are totally wrong the conclusions are usually right regarding the numbers. The reason is because there is a best case scenario and a worse case scenario. Somewhere in-between is where we end up.

Bill

Sorry, there’s no excuse for not having accurate numbers. This shouldn’t be a guess based on best or worse case scenarios.


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[easyrider]

Sorry, there’s no excuse for not having accurate numbers. This shouldn’t be a guess based on best or worse case scenarios.


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How can there be accurate numbers and why does there there need to be an excuse ?

The best numbers known would be hospital information, imo. There is a know number of deaths and a known number of recoveries. Using these numbers the mortality rate is about 20% of those who are admitted to hospitals with covid 19. This is some what accurate. If a person believed the numbers false then these numbers would still represent a range of best and worse case senarios.

All other numbers are data used to determine an estimate only.

Bill