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Will this Covid spread continue to level down?

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billymach4

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With more localities opening up, more people starting to get back to work, travel, beaches, religious gatherings. Yes these are all good things and activities that will support the economy and make us feel normal.

Unfortunately in my opinion the virus is continuing to spread in the US and will start to ramp up again.
We are starting to see the spread increase in certain locations again.

Just saying.
 

DeniseM

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Folks - This thread could go either way, please take the high road.
 

billymach4

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Forgive me but I had to look it up.


Take the high road

To take the high road is an American phrase which means to approach an endeavor or problem in a fashion that is above pettiness, to travel the moral high ground, to behave decently. The phrase to take the high road came into popular use during the American presidential campaign of 1948, Thomas Dewey claiming to take the high road against Truman’s campaign tactics.

take the high road
When you 'take the high road' - it means doing the right thing even if its not popular or easy.
 

b2bailey

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Forgive me but I had to look it up.


Take the high road

To take the high road is an American phrase which means to approach an endeavor or problem in a fashion that is above pettiness, to travel the moral high ground, to behave decently. The phrase to take the high road came into popular use during the American presidential campaign of 1948, Thomas Dewey claiming to take the high road against Truman’s campaign tactics.

take the high road
When you 'take the high road' - it means doing the right thing even if its not popular or easy.
Above pettiness -- perfecto.
 

Brett

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Forgive me but I had to look it up.


Take the high road

To take the high road is an American phrase which means to approach an endeavor or problem in a fashion that is above pettiness, to travel the moral high ground, to behave decently. The phrase to take the high road came into popular use during the American presidential campaign of 1948, Thomas Dewey claiming to take the high road against Truman’s campaign tactics.

take the high road
When you 'take the high road' - it means doing the right thing even if its not popular or easy.
OK, the "high road"
pondering "doing the right thing even if it's not popular" ............;)
 

geekette

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It seems inevitable that the infection will spread. I will keep a good thought that new cases are super mild and that hospitalized persons benefit from gained treatment knowledge. I can handle massive case detections much easier than a skyrocketing death toll. So far we haven't hit Surgeon General's warning of 3k deaths per day. I'd like to keep it that way.
 

Conan

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I'm sticking with "I don't know" what's in our future.

They say (absent an effective vaccine), there can't be herd immunity until at least 70% of the population has been exposed.

But it seems that the countries that did respond effectively against the initial infection (Germany, South Korea, New Zealand, Japan, Canada, Australia) are well on the way to eliminating new cases without ever getting near the 70% target. If their test and trace programs were so effective that the virus is nearly extinct locally, what will happen to their case rate when they reopen their borders?
 

Passepartout

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What had become abundantly clear now is that each of our 'personal safety' is now each of our PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY. Nobody is going to make the blanket requirement that everybody stay home, everybody mask up, everybody stay away from each other. So for those of us in the highest risk group, there is little protection except what we provide ourselves. The rest can 'carry on' like there is no threat. Some will get sick, most will get well, the weak and susceptible will die. Natural selection.

Thanks! Enjoy your church services, your restaurants, your beaches, your theme parks, and ball fields. I'm staying home until the 'ALL CLEAR- THERE'S A VACCINE OR TREATMENT! is sounded.

Jim
 

bbodb1

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As businesses and activities reopen, there will be an increase in cases. That is not debatable but the amount of the increase will matter greatly and that will vary geographically.

What will be interesting to observe is will an area be willing to revert to a more locked down level after trying to reopen and what will the reaction be from the citizens of that area?

And how will the economy trend as we try to reopen - and how will jobs be different as we learn to live with COVID 19.

In the meantime, our approach looks a lot like Jim's as we have not ventured out at all in over 2 months. I have done all the shopping and have managed to shop at times with less crowds throughout this. That behavior will likely continue for some time.
 

geekette

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....If their test and trace programs were so effective that the virus is nearly extinct locally, what will happen to their case rate when they reopen their borders?

Very good question. My memory isn't so good, but I think it was S Korea that was able to find and isolate "imported cases". Maybe it wasn't them, but there had been a report of "we found 14 cases, they arrived from elsewhere" and quarantined them and went back to dormant case count. Could have been Wuhan, I just don't remember, except that they did find and isolate. Time passes strangely, I think that was weeks ago, but could have been days...

Perhaps, like other aspects of this pandemic, some countries will be better at others in this "find and confine" issue. We have so many international airports that it's hard to imagine an expansion of TSA, or similar, to manage it for the US. Perhaps the bigger problem will be qt of infected, or, presumed infected. To me, that seems like an enormous effort. Are we going to see certain "airport hotels" turn into Isolate Inns? Hard to imagine any hotel wants to be that, even if all their staff is "presumed immune". Will people actually do much travel if it involves 14 days of isolation? I don't think I could do that.

Here in Indiana, I think our cases rooted via interstate travel (many trucking companies here along with major interstates converging), but could have been intl flights. Ours or from Chic O'Hare.

Regardless, yeah, I have many more questions that I will simply have to be patient on knowing answers to, and am making peace with the fact that for some things, I will never get to know the answer. I hope we continue to come up with Ideas that become Solutions.
 

Panina

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Logically to me yes they will go up.
The question is by how much and when.

We might get relief by the warmer weather keeping numbers down which can cause those practicing guidelines to get a false sense of security to stop thus if the resurgence occurs in the Fall it could be worse.

The SIP was to flatten the curve, done, to have enough medical resources for those who need it. It didn’t magically make the virus go away.

Hopefully, with part of the population following suggested guidelines and others still staying home, the increase in numbers will still be able to be handled by the medical community.
 

x3 skier

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It clear the more you test, the more cases you find, even if some of the positives never experienced any symptoms. I myself got virus nose swab tested a couple of weeks ago with negative results. One statistic I have never seen (haven't really looked for either) is the situation of asymptomatic persons who then test positive for the virus or have the antibodies showing they had the virus.

Another statistic I've not seen is the rate of Hospitalization of those tested positive by age grouping.

I'm sure these statistics are out there somewhere but I haven't really searched since its not really going to affect my behavior. Frankly, if I'm going to spend the rest of the years I have in my house or risk the potential of catching the virus, I'm going out with the recommended precautions.

Cheers
 

T-Dot-Traveller

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I will start with Canada - realizing that is also a large country (with provincially run health care .)

For the future good of society - “shut down “ was implemented to prevent the overwhelming of hospitals (as was occurring in Italy and then NYC ) Capacity was added to hospitals by cancelling all elective surgeries- this would include things like very needed knee replacements etc. etc.

Some things (that in hindsight) should have been done in Canada at once , were missed .
Prioritizing PPE to Nursing homes and meat processing plants .
1)approx. 80% ofCanadian deaths from Covid 19 are connected to Long Term Care / Nursing Home / Assisted Living Facilities .
2) meat processing has had significant infection hot spots .

I think the big picture answers will come from more testing and more contact tracing .

A couple of prior examples of eventual “ containment resolution “ without a vaccine are :
1 ) AIDS
2 )Lyme Disease ( ticks bite transmissions )

***********

There will always be the need have rules to protect society
and the need for individual freedom to make choices .

A Timeshare ownership and the HOA works similarly .

Protect yourself & protect others - be responsible
 
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bbodb1

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But to be fair, @T-Dot-Traveller , wouldn't you agree the two prior example containment resolution diseases you mention are almost exclusively avoidable whereas COVID 19 is not?
 
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bluehende

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Logically to me yes they will go up.
The question is by how much and when.

We might get relief by the warmer weather keeping numbers down which can cause those practicing guidelines to get a false sense of security to stop thus if the resurgence occurs in the Fall it could be worse.

The SIP was to flatten the curve, done, to have enough medical resources for those who need it. It didn’t magically make the virus go away.

Hopefully, with part of the population following suggested guidelines and others still staying home, the increase in numbers will still be able to be handled by the medical community.

This is where I am. With some of the population still SAH and with a lot of people social distancing while out it will help keep the spread down. Also seasonal effects should help some too. My guess is we will see steady to a slow rise in cases. Nothing to react too except for a few local bad outbreaks. My worry is this gives us a false sense of security and in the fall we have a big problem that resistance to mitigating moves makes much worse.
 

bbodb1

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normab

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I think it depends where you live. The US is so large that many of our states are Larger than some countries. So clearly some states may have more of an uptick than others.

Since no one on this earth can really predict the future, it’s anyone’s educated guess. My educated guess is that it will not come back with a vengeance. I believe we are heading toward our own version of herd immunity.

But that an a buck will get you anything you want at Dollar Tree. :shrug:
 

PigsDad

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It clear the more you test, the more cases you find, even if some of the positives never experienced any symptoms.
Absolutely. The number of positive cases is correlated to the number of total tests, so just looking at the total number of positive test results is not a great measure, IMO.

Another statistic I've not seen is the rate of Hospitalization of those tested positive by age grouping.
I much prefer hospitalization rate as an indicator of how we are or are not doing against CV-19. Hospitalization rate is a good indicator of serious cases, and is not dependent on the testing rate or total number of tests being administered.

Here's the good news: Hospitalization rates have been declining for several weeks now. Here is a graph, straight from the CDC, which demonstrates this (and I think is exactly what you are looking for, @x3 skier):

CV_Hospitalization_Rate.png


Source: https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_3.html
You can make some adjustments to view / filter the data on several age bands. On that page, there is a link to another CDC page where you can break down the hospitalization rates by race and underlying medical conditions as well.

Looking at this data I don't see any spikes yet, even though several states have relaxed their SIP orders for a couple of weeks. It may be too soon, but hopefully the downward trend continues.

Kurt
 

b2bailey

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It seems inevitable that the infection will spread. I will keep a good thought that new cases are super mild and that hospitalized persons benefit from gained treatment knowledge. I can handle massive case detections much easier than a skyrocketing death toll. So far we haven't hit Surgeon General's warning of 3k deaths per day. I'd like to keep it that way.
" Benefit from gained treatment knowledge. "
This is definitely a reason to be hopeful.
 

b2bailey

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Logically to me yes they will go up.
The question is by how much and when.

We might get relief by the warmer weather keeping numbers down which can cause those practicing guidelines to get a false sense of security to stop thus if the resurgence occurs in the Fall it could be worse.

The SIP was to flatten the curve, done, to have enough medical resources for those who need it. It didn’t magically make the virus go away.

Hopefully, with part of the population following suggested guidelines and others still staying home, the increase in numbers will still be able to be handled by the medical community.
I'm confused by any mention of warm weather being helpful to combat virus. If true, how to explain Brazil?
 

b2bailey

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I will start with Canada - realizing that is also a large country (with provincially run health care .)

For the future good of society - “shut down “ was implemented to prevent the overwhelming of hospitals (as was occurring in Italy and then NYC ) Capacity was added to hospitals by cancelling all elective surgeries- this would include things like very needed knee replacements etc. etc.

Some things that in hindsight should have been done in Canada at once , were missed .
Prioritizing PPE to Nursing homes and meat processing plants .
1)approx. 80% ofCanadian deaths from Covid 19 are connected to Long Term Care / Nursing Home / Assisted Living Facilities .
2) meat processing has had significant hot spots

I think the big picture answers will come from more testing and more contact tracing .

A couple of prior examples of eventual “ containment resolution “ without a vaccine are :
1 ) AIDS
2 )Lyme Disease ( ticks bite transmissions )

***********

There will always be the need have rules to protect society
and the need for individual freedom to make choices .

A Timeshare ownership and the HOA works similarly .

Protect yourself & protect others - be responsible
Wow -- 80% in Canada? I hadn't seen that figure.
 

geekette

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" Benefit from gained treatment knowledge. "
This is definitely a reason to be hopeful.
The one thing I know I would do is ask to be flipped onto my stomach before resorting to intubation. I think Italy discovered that (not sure, but since I followed Italy fairly closely, I guess them; also where I saw the phenomenal bubble-headed alternative to unconscious intubation - let's try bubbles here! )
 

beejaybeeohio

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I much prefer hospitalization rate as an indicator of how we are or are not doing against CV-19. Hospitalization rate is a good indicator of serious cases, and is not dependent on the testing rate or total number of tests being administered.

Here's the good news: Hospitalization rates have been declining for several weeks now.
Kurt
I agree with your preference. In addition, I would like information delineated by nursing home cases/deaths, prison cases/deaths and meat packing plants cases/deaths.
 

Monykalyn

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I agree with your preference. In addition, I would like information delineated by nursing home cases/deaths, prison cases/deaths and meat packing plants cases/deaths.
agree-especially as risk of infection/severity clearly goes up with prolonged close contact. I’ll bet now that casual brief contacts have low transmission risk. I’d also like to know how often “mild” or “asymptomatic” spread results in a severe case requiring hospitalization.
 
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