....If their test and trace programs were so effective that the virus is nearly extinct locally, what will happen to their case rate when they reopen their borders?
Very good question. My memory isn't so good, but I think it was S Korea that was able to find and isolate "imported cases". Maybe it wasn't them, but there had been a report of "we found 14 cases, they arrived from elsewhere" and quarantined them and went back to dormant case count. Could have been Wuhan, I just don't remember, except that they did find and isolate. Time passes strangely, I think that was weeks ago, but could have been days...
Perhaps, like other aspects of this pandemic, some countries will be better at others in this "find and confine" issue. We have so many international airports that it's hard to imagine an expansion of TSA, or similar, to manage it for the US. Perhaps the bigger problem will be qt of infected, or, presumed infected. To me, that seems like an enormous effort. Are we going to see certain "airport hotels" turn into Isolate Inns? Hard to imagine any hotel wants to be that, even if all their staff is "presumed immune". Will people actually do much travel if it involves 14 days of isolation? I don't think I could do that.
Here in Indiana, I think our cases rooted via interstate travel (many trucking companies here along with major interstates converging), but could have been intl flights. Ours or from Chic O'Hare.
Regardless, yeah, I have many more questions that I will simply have to be patient on knowing answers to, and am making peace with the fact that for some things, I will never get to know the answer. I hope we continue to come up with Ideas that become Solutions.