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Will this Covid spread continue to level down?

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DannyTS

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@bluehende Sweden was served a bad hand, look at the high number of cases and deaths in March and early April and those would have not been prevented by a shutdown. That was the peak though, the number of deaths has been going down ever since so their strategy seems to be working


DEATHS/DAY
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TravelTime

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I still do not know a single person who has gotten Covid. I keep expecting someone I know to come down with it given how contagious it is. My sister in law is a nurse. My nephew is a firefighter. One of my brothers is not that careful and he is taking his three kids to Texas for camping (flying from Florida). I would not advise that but he is stubborn and we think he does not believe Covid is real. The riskiest thing I have done is get my haircut a week ago and I am still healthy. Also a pool contractor came by to give us a bid on resurfacing the pool and then later last week we met him at a couple houses to look at some pools with the materials installed. We have been allowing our house cleaners to continue cleaning every 3 weeks. She comes with a crew of 2 or 3. So far, they have been fine too. Are there other Tuggers like me who do not know anyone with Covid?
 

bluehende

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@bluehende Sweden was served a bad hand, look at the high number of cases and deaths in March and early April and those would have not been prevented by a shutdown. That was the peak though, the number of deaths has been going down ever since so their strategy seems to be working


DEATHS/DAY
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Yet all of their neighbors that surround them did fine. Seems to be a self inflicted wound to me
 

DannyTS

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Yet all of their neighbors that surround them did fine. Seems to be a self inflicted wound to me
We discussed this before, didn't we? The neighbors started from a much lower number of cases in March, and that had also had nothing to do with the shutdown. Let's move on.
 

DannyTS

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you posted an older article. The tune is changing concerning the economy as well.

Sweden had one of the most relaxed COVID-19 lockdowns in the world. There's growing evidence that it helped it weather 2020's economic storm better than anywhere else.

 

Luanne

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Are there other Tuggers like me who do not know anyone with Covid?
I don't know anyone personally. But maybe that is because our family and friends are all being as cautious as we are.
 

DannyTS

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....So shutdown until there is a WIDELY available vaccine, or accept what Sweden accepted from the beginning? Those are the current choices.

No, there are many more choices than that.
If you look at the number of deaths, you will see that in Sweden most have occurred right at the beginning and that a shutdown mid-March would have not prevented them. What Sweden did was the most rational decision in my opinion because it included more cooperation and less coercion, it is a strategy that is sustainable in the long run and it did not rely on a vaccine that may or may not happen. They also did not have to lie to the population by omitting that after the end of the shutdown the country would be back to square one. The social and economic costs were minimized as well. I do not know if you are concerned at all with the increased lack of safety in some American cities, there is a relationship with the prolonged lockdowns and rise in unemployment.

In the United States the cost has been 15 million dollars for every person who died and there is no evidence that life has actually been saved thought the lock downs, especially in the long run. The money I mentioned was just in the first round of stimulus at the federal level but the actual amount is a multiple of that number.
 

geekette

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....there is no evidence that life has actually been saved thought the lock downs, especially in the long run.

Right. You can't count the millions of us that haven't died or been infected as proof of anything.
 

davidvel

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Yup. The newlywed couple and at least eight others contracted C19. The church had posted signs that there should not be gatherings, yet they had the wedding with guests arriving via a back entrance. The city had a tip and sent someone to instruct them to move it outside.

I’m sure similar events are happening elsewhere. My neighbor emailed me this morning that they are hosting a birthday party (off site) tonight...and I’m not surprised, since they are classic examples of Karen and Kevin...but it’s infuriating. They are why we cannot control this epidemic. And yes, it violates local guidelines on gatherings.


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Any serious illness or death?
 

jabberwocky

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Are there other Tuggers like me who do not know anyone with Covid?
Nope. I have not met anyone or even heard about anyone in my network that has gotten it (this is a pretty broad network covering much of Canada and the US, part of China, The UK and extensive family connections in Switzerland and Germany).

I do know of three people close to me who have had cancer treatments delayed and sadly two individuals who committed suicide since March. Unfortunately they aren’t counted as part of the collateral damage from the pandemic.
 

Ken555

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Any serious illness or death?
Over 652,000 deaths so far. Shouldn’t that be enough of a warning to stop gatherings?


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bluehende

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Oh, the New York Times. Where are the Eye-Roll Emojis?
hmmmm yet the article is from the business insider. Wonder where that hate of the NY times comes from that even a passing mention in a business insider article gets such a visceral reaction.

Or maybe you could actually address the article. Or these credentials of that economist

Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), previously known as the Institute for International Economics (IIE), is a non-partisan, non-profit think tank focused on international economics, based in Washington, D.C. It was founded by C. Fred Bergsten in 1981 and is currently led by Adam S. Posen. The institute conducts research, provides policy recommendations, and publishes books/articles on a wide range of topics related to international economics.

According to the 2015 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report (Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, University of Pennsylvania), PIIE was number 20 (of 150) in the "Top Think Tanks Worldwide" and number 13 (of 60) in the "Top Think Tanks in the United States".[2]
 

DannyTS

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....there is no evidence that life has actually been saved thought the lock downs, especially in the long run.

Right. You can't count the millions of us that haven't died or been infected as proof of anything.
Based on the models, Sweden was supposed to have 20 times more deaths but they didn't. In Sweden most deaths are frontloaded, those people would have not been saved by a lockdown starting mid March. They had 2-3 times less deaths per capita than NY, Massachusetts or Connecticut that had lockdowns. Lockdowns only delay the number of deaths but they do not change the total outcome because once you lift them (and you have to eventually) you are back to square one.
 

DannyTS

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I don't know anyone personally. But maybe that is because our family and friends are all being as cautious as we are.
Maybe that is evidence number 1 that we can keep ourselves safe and we do not need lockdowns.
 

DannyTS

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hmmmm yet the article is from the business insider. Wonder where that hate of the NY times comes from that even a passing mention in a business insider article gets such a visceral reaction.

Or maybe you could actually address the article. Or these credentials of that economist

Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), previously known as the Institute for International Economics (IIE), is a non-partisan, non-profit think tank focused on international economics, based in Washington, D.C. It was founded by C. Fred Bergsten in 1981 and is currently led by Adam S. Posen. The institute conducts research, provides policy recommendations, and publishes books/articles on a wide range of topics related to international economics.

According to the 2015 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report (Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, University of Pennsylvania), PIIE was number 20 (of 150) in the "Top Think Tanks Worldwide" and number 13 (of 60) in the "Top Think Tanks in the United States".[2]
Regardless who published it initially (the NYT was indeed the most quoted at the time) as I pointed out, Business Insider published another article that Sweden has fared much better than anyone else in Europe in terms of economy: "There's growing evidence that it helped it weather 2020's economic storm better than anywhere else".

One comment about think tanks. Let me be skeptical that there is no political taint in any of those based in Washington.
 

bbodb1

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hmmmm yet the article is from the business insider. Wonder where that hate of the NY times comes from that even a passing mention in a business insider article gets such a visceral reaction.

Or maybe you could actually address the article. Or these credentials of that economist

Jacob Kirkegaard, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), previously known as the Institute for International Economics (IIE), is a non-partisan, non-profit think tank focused on international economics, based in Washington, D.C. It was founded by C. Fred Bergsten in 1981 and is currently led by Adam S. Posen. The institute conducts research, provides policy recommendations, and publishes books/articles on a wide range of topics related to international economics.

According to the 2015 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report (Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program, University of Pennsylvania), PIIE was number 20 (of 150) in the "Top Think Tanks Worldwide" and number 13 (of 60) in the "Top Think Tanks in the United States".[2]
Given what is going on at the NY Times these days, I have no trust in anything they publish.
That mistrust extends to all of what is referred to these days as the media.
 

Brett

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Based on the models, Sweden was supposed to have 20 times more deaths but they didn't. In Sweden most deaths are frontloaded, those people would have not been saved by a lockdown starting mid March. They had 2-3 times less deaths per capita than NY, Massachusetts or Connecticut that had lockdowns. Lockdowns only delay the number of deaths but they do not change the total outcome because once you lift them (and you have to eventually) you are back to square one.
wow - still obsessed with Sweden :rolleyes:

Socialized government healthcare 70% personal income tax rate - 25% sales tax
where people respect the federal government

You must love Bernie !
 

Glynda

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I still do not know a single person who has gotten Covid. I keep expecting someone I know to come down with it given how contagious it is. My sister in law is a nurse. My nephew is a firefighter. One of my brothers is not that careful and he is taking his three kids to Texas for camping (flying from Florida). I would not advise that but he is stubborn and we think he does not believe Covid is real. The riskiest thing I have done is get my haircut a week ago and I am still healthy. Also a pool contractor came by to give us a bid on resurfacing the pool and then later last week we met him at a couple houses to look at some pools with the materials installed. We have been allowing our house cleaners to continue cleaning every 3 weeks. She comes with a crew of 2 or 3. So far, they have been fine too. Are there other Tuggers like me who do not know anyone with Covid?
I didn’t until last week. A friend of my mother, who would pick her up and bring her home from bridge and who also visited her at our house, died after two weeks on a respirator and her husband also has it. Sad story. She and her husband had long planned to scale back and move into an indepedent house at the Presbyterian Home in Summerville. Their house sold quickly and they moved in and two weeks later she was taken to the ER, put immediately into the ICU on a respirator. She had no underlying conditions except age. Then we learned that neighbors around the corner both have it as do other members of their extended family who gathered together in Myrtle Beach for vacation. The church a few blocks from us that my mother used to attend, upon last hearing, had 4 test positive. All of this has me tightening back up on staying in place.
 

DannyTS

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wow - still obsessed with Sweden :rolleyes:

Socialized government healthcare 70% personal income tax rate - 25% sales tax
where people respect the federal government

You must love Bernie !
Classical political comment Brett™ .

If you had followed the thread, others brought back Sweden into the mix. You have used the words "fixation" and "obsession". They are not necessarily nice words and they are probably meant as an attack (keep on going!) but I truly do not understand why Sweden is not studied more in this context. I guess nobody is interested in really finding out what is going on there at this moment. On one side of the spectrum, people want more lockdowns so why look at something that contradicts your theory? On the other side it would be an admission that the initial lockdown might have not been necessary or at least not for that long so better keep the cover on than admit you might have been wrong at the time.
 
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Brett

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Classical political comment Brett™ .

If you had followed the thread, others brought back Sweden into the mix. You have used the words "fixation" and "obsession". They are not necessarily nice words and they are probably meant as an attack (keep on going!) but I truly do not understand why Sweden is not studied more in this context. I guess nobody is interested in really finding out what is going on there at this moment. On one side of the spectrum, people want more lockdowns so why look at something that contradicts your theory? On the other side it would be an admission that the initial lockdown might have not been necessary or at least not for that long so better keep the cover on than admit you might have been wrong at the time.
repeated posts about Sweden?
I'd call it obsessed and fixated. Admit it - you love Sweden with their 70% personal income tax, 25% sales tax and federal government run healthcare

It's Almost Heaven !
 

Ken555

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repeated posts about Sweden?
I'd call it obsessed and fixated. Admit it - you love Sweden with their 70% personal income tax, 25% sales tax and federal government run healthcare

It's Almost Heaven !
He’s still posting about Sweden! Wow. Glad I don’t see those posts.


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billymach4

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I still do not know a single person who has gotten Covid. I keep expecting someone I know to come down with it given how contagious it is. My sister in law is a nurse. My nephew is a firefighter. One of my brothers is not that careful and he is taking his three kids to Texas for camping (flying from Florida). I would not advise that but he is stubborn and we think he does not believe Covid is real. The riskiest thing I have done is get my haircut a week ago and I am still healthy. Also a pool contractor came by to give us a bid on resurfacing the pool and then later last week we met him at a couple houses to look at some pools with the materials installed. We have been allowing our house cleaners to continue cleaning every 3 weeks. She comes with a crew of 2 or 3. So far, they have been fine too. Are there other Tuggers like me who do not know anyone with Covid?
Cha Ching Just heard of another person that got it!
You are in the minority
 
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