Will this Covid spread continue to level down?

[Luanne]

not that many unless you're one of those hit hard by the virus or died
One of our family friends was on a Nile cruise in Feb and got the coronvirus and was in the hospital for a week

I have some one off instances. The husband of a woman I worked with years ago was one of the passengers on one of the cruise ships that got hit early on. It was the Coral Princess. he died at a Miami hospital after waiting four hours to be transferred off the ship. She also got the virus, was hospitalized, but recovered.

 

[Rolltydr]

I am definitely not shocked that none in my close comport have it. My employed friends have been working from home for months. I am not close with any essential workers. the people I know with pre-existing conditions are staying put and not taking risks. It would be more shocking if my seriously-hunkered-down-aunt got it as it would have to slide under the door.

We were notified today that my wife’s brother has tested positive. They think he contracted it at work from his boss who tested positive earlier. Her brother was being very careful, staying in his office as much as possible and always wearing a mask when he had to go out. He started having a cough last week and has had a very slight fever a couple of times. He threw up over the weekend but he has gastric problems and they don’t think that is related. He says he’s feeling pretty good and he has been quarantined in one part of the house for several days. This is the first person we actually know who has tested positive. I don’t expect it to be the last.

 

[geekette]

....Given how contagious it is, I would assume more people would have it by now.

Much of this depends on how prevalent the virus is in the community, and community compliance with the mask, wash hands, distance, limit trips out thing. If your essential worker folks are doing their part to keep themselves safe, they may either be effective at that, or virus not that prevalent in their community, or not that prevalent at their job or job is doing a great job on protecting their people.

honestly, I think some of it is a crapshoot. We can't see it, we can have it and not know it...

I'm glad your essential worker friends/family are healthy!

 

[geekette]

4.4 million cases sounds like a lot but when you say it is only 1.47% of the population, then it is not that many.

4.4 That We Know Of...

 

[Ken555]

4.4 That We Know Of...

Yeah, I didn't really want to go there. But I absolutely agree. The actual number is likely much, much higher.

 

[DannyTS]

not that many unless you're one of those hit hard by the virus or died
One of our family friends was on a Nile cruise in Feb and got the coronvirus and was in the hospital for a week

Where was your friend tested/hospitalized in February?

 

[TravelTime]

....Given how contagious it is, I would assume more people would have it by now.

Much of this depends on how prevalent the virus is in the community, and community compliance with the mask, wash hands, distance, limit trips out thing. If your essential worker folks are doing their part to keep themselves safe, they may either be effective at that, or virus not that prevalent in their community, or not that prevalent at their job or job is doing a great job on protecting their people.

honestly, I think some of it is a crapshoot. We can't see it, we can have it and not know it...

I'm glad your essential worker friends/family are healthy!

My family is in Miami, a hotspot for the virus. One of my brothers is not very careful and he initially thought the virus was a hoax. We have all been concerned about how he goes about his day with his three kids. He has decided to fly them all to Texas to go camping. Why does he not just drive somewhere north and find a campground? None of us in the family understand. I am surprised he has not caught anything yet. My father was keeping his distance from my brother and the kids but I heard they had a birthday party for my father in June and they all met with no masks and no social distancing. That bothered me but what can I do.

 

[DannyTS]

4.4 That We Know Of...

Another conspiracy theory lol

 

[am1]

4.4 That We Know Of...

So far.

 

[davidvel]

The answer to this question would force the mods to close this thread. If you're really interested, you should be able to find the answer.

However, to answer your second question... there are now ~4.4 million cases in the US (assuming you trust the numbers now that they are politically influenced and not being sent from the CDC...which is another topic altogether) and ~330 million people in the US so just ~1.47% positive.

It seems you are implying that only 4.4 million (1.47% of pop) have had COVID. This is wholly inaccurate. This is just how many people have tested positive, not how many are/were positive. The current average positive tests/test are around 8%. Most people who test are still those with symptoms. I'd bet total positive levels exceed 15%.

 

[TravelTime]

It seems you are implying that only 4.4 million (1.47% of pop) have had COVID. This is wholly inaccurate. This is just how many people have tested positive, not how many are/were positive. The current average positive tests/test are around 8%. Most people who test are still those with symptoms. I'd bet total positive levels exceed 15%.

So how many people have had Covid since this started in Jan/Feb?

 

[Luanne]

So how many people have had Covid since this started in Jan/Feb?

Worldwide?

U.S.?

Your home state?

You should be able to find all of those numbers.

 

[Ken555]

It seems you are implying that only 4.4 million (1.47% of pop) have had COVID. This is wholly inaccurate. This is just how many people have tested positive, not how many are/were positive. The current average positive tests/test are around 8%. Most people who test are still those with symptoms. I'd bet total positive levels exceed 15%.

We’ve had this discussion. See my follow up post above, as well.

I posted in March I thought the actual count was around 50x that of the reported numbers. That’s obviously changed since then, but it’s clearly higher than the reported count.

We need to give each other a bit more credit before jumping to conclusions. And yeah, I’m sometimes guilty of that, too.


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[TravelTime]

Worldwide?

U.S.?

Your home state?

You should be able to find all of those numbers.

USA. I was asking because @davidvel said the number was higher than the reported 4.4 million. I was wondering if he was getting different numbers than @Ken555.

 

[Ken555]

USA. I was asking because @davidvel said the number was higher than the reported 4.4 million. I was wondering if he was getting different numbers than @Ken555.

The link from the CDC I posted earlier shows 4.2 million. Another site I use shows 4.4. I’m sure others will show different numbers.

The real question is not the positive test total but rather how many are actually positive. That we don’t know, but can certainly guess, and it’s absolutely higher than the positive test count.


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[billymach4]

Yeah, I know a few. I'm don't understand this curiosity from those who don't know anyone... it's almost as if they don't believe it's true. Say it ain't so.p

What's worse is when you know personally of more than one person that has died from Covid

 

[easyrider]

What's worse is when you know personally of more than one person that has died from Covid

So far, a few people we know have passed away from covid 19 complications. They were all over 80 and all of them were in a nursing home for other problems.

In past years, a few older people we know would pass away from a flu or pneumonia. Not this year though. All old people passed away from covid 19.

Bill

 

[billymach4]

So far, a few people we know have passed away from covid 19 complications. They were all over 80 and all of them were in a nursing home for other problems.

In past years, a few older people we know would pass away from a flu or pneumonia. Not this year though. All old people passed away from covid 19.

Bill

2 of the individuals were in their 50's (57 cousin) the other not exactly sure. One was in his 60's the others Nursing home types. This *bleep* is no joke.

 

[davidvel]

So how many people have had Covid since this started in Jan/Feb?

In the US, my guess would be about 50 million. I base this on my presumption that the fatality rate is around .003%, the deaths are about 150K, and the testing numbers leading me to believe that about 15% of the country has had it.

 

[billymach4]

In the US, my guess would be about 50 million. I base this on my presumption that the fatality rate is around .003%, the deaths are about 150K, and the testing numbers leading me to believe that about 15% of the country has had it.

Since your guess is seat of pants, off the cuff.... clearly it's totally wrong.

 

[davidvel]

Since your guess is seat of pants, off the cuff.... clearly it's totally wrong.

We'll only find out in about 2 years, or never.

 

[CO skier]

So how many people have had Covid since this started in Jan/Feb?

In the US, my guess would be about 50 million. I base this on my presumption that the fatality rate is around .003%, the deaths are about 150K, and the testing numbers leading me to believe that about 15% of the country has had it.

Since your guess is seat of pants, off the cuff.... clearly it's totally wrong.

Estimates from "experts" online puts it at about 23 million at the end of June, so maybe 10% of the US population by now.

Yes, all the shutdowns and "quarantines" over the last 4 months still leaves 90% of the US population vulnerable to the Covid-19 virus.

I do not recall any "expert" explaining in March that this is where we would be in late July. I think the "experts" were just kicking the can down the road and hoping for a summer season remission like the flu.

The US is really no better off now than in March. That is what 3 trillion dollars bought.

 

[Ken555]

I do not recall any "expert" explaining in March that this is where we would be in late July. I think the "experts" were just kicking the can down the road and hoping for a summer season remission like the flu.

Actually, I think the experts expected the country to honor the stay at home directive. And, that we should only reopen when the numbers allowed it, and go back to home when and if numbers increased. But no, we reopened without honoring the plan. The “experts” had nothing to do with this colossal leadership failure. Had we let the “experts” dictate our actions, it’s likely that many people would not, and will not, needlessly die.

The US is really no better off now than in March. That is what 3 trillion dollars bought.

Yup. And the “experts” are not at fault for this historically exceptional failure.

If we really want to stop the spread, we know exactly what to do. We all stay home...or at least 80-90% of us. And when the R0 is down to ~0.5 the spread will stop fairly quickly. But we are not strong enough to be this restrictive. And instead many tens of thousands more will die.

Stop blaming the “experts”. Blame those who are truly responsible.


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[CO skier]

Actually, I think the experts expected the country to honor the stay at home directive.

Which we largely did for the 14 days initially presented, and then the "30 Days to Slow the Spread" and then 2 weeks beyond that, while politicians kicked the can down the road.

Then it became undeniable that Covid-19 could not be "contained" and the economy could not be shutdown until there was a vaccine.

And that is where we are now, essentially back at where we were in March; 90% of the US population vulnerable to Covid-19 now, instead of 94-96% in March.

 

[Brett]

Which we largely did for the 14 days initially presented, and then the "30 Days to Slow the Spread" and then 2 weeks beyond that, while politicians kicked the can down the road.

Then it became undeniable that Covid-19 could not be "contained" and the economy could not be shutdown until there was a vaccine.

And that is where we are now, essentially back at where we were in March; 90% of the US population vulnerable to Covid-19 now, instead of 94-96% in March.

always blaming the "experts"

if only there were leadership at the national level ............. ( like other countries )