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Will this Covid spread continue to level down?

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bluehende

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In the US, my guess would be about 50 million. I base this on my presumption that the fatality rate is around .003%, the deaths are about 150K, and the testing numbers leading me to believe that about 15% of the country has had it.
Hard to justify the fatality rate when NJ already has already had .178% of their entire population die.
 

DannyTS

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Hard to justify the fatality rate when NJ already has already had .178% of their entire population die.
Does that include the motorcycle accidents?
 

grupp

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I do not recall any "expert" explaining in March that this is where we would be in late July. I think the "experts" were just kicking the can down the road and hoping for a summer season remission like the flu.
Although they never really came out in said it, we may be right were some of the experts thought we would be at this point. They originally said that this is not going away until we reach heard immunity or have an effective vaccine, neither of which were ever going to happen in 2-3 months. I believe the first estimates on heard immunity was around 60%. The original reason for the stay at home orders were to "flatten the curve" not to erratic the virus. This would spread out the number of sick people and not overwhelm our health care system. Somewhere along the way things seem to change and we began to expect some type of different result, which is not realistic in my opinion.

We may have succeeded somewhat in that goal, although there are several areas currently going through some tough times, most of the country currently has manageable numbers. Currently, the % of deaths are down as we understand who is most at risk and seem to be a better job of protecting those people and hopefully that trend will continue.

As a society we can't stay locked down indefinitely, although people that are in high risk categories may have no choice. No matter what we do, this is not going away anytime soon and people are going to continue to get sick and sadly some will die. Hopefully, we can find a way to work together and make our way through this as best we can. Usually, tragedies such as this bring us together as a nation, but this one has divided us in many ways and there is plenty of blame to go around as to why that is the case.
 

Ken555

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Which we largely did for the 14 days initially presented, and then the "30 Days to Slow the Spread" and then 2 weeks beyond that, while politicians kicked the can down the road.

Then it became undeniable that Covid-19 could not be "contained" and the economy could not be shutdown until there was a vaccine.

And that is where we are now, essentially back at where we were in March; 90% of the US population vulnerable to Covid-19 now, instead of 94-96% in March.
Your response indicates you didn’t comprehend my post.

We can lower the transmission rate. We simply don’t have the will to do so, which almost every other country has done.


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silentg

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The latest I hear is, if everyone washes hands, wear a mask, social distance , we can be much lower in cases.
 

Luanne

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The latest I hear is, if everyone washes hands, wear a mask, social distance , we can be much lower in cases.
I hear that as well. The problem is, not everyone will do that.
 

Ken555

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The latest I hear is, if everyone washes hands, wear a mask, social distance , we can be much lower in cases.
It’s so simple... and we are utterly failing at this. It’s a huge indictment on our society, especially when compared to other countries. Every day I’m reading the news (and certain comments on TUG) and just shaking my head in disbelief. This has nothing to do with anyone’s opinion...our numbers are rising so much that those who lead are so scared of the numbers that they are now hiding the info! It’s just a shameful time we are living through in America. Very depressing.


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Passepartout

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I just came home from my semi-annual function test and meeting with my pulmonologist. The good news, my progressive lung disease is better, I'm back to where I tested in 2014! WooHoo! So I asked if I should consider a Covid diagnosis a death sentence. He said, "Absolutely not!" If I present at the FIRST evidence of symptoms, I'd have an 85% chance of walking out. Not a walk-in-the-park, but survivable. He said the numbers we see on TV every night undercount the 'real' number of infections by between 4X & 10X. For each person diagnosed as positive, there arre spouses, children, siblings and kids in the household as well as an 'orbit' of friends and acquaintances we all have who have been exposed and may be contagious while being asymptomatic and untested.

The meeting with the doc- Our ONLY pulmonologist- made me feel hopeful, but also encouraged to cover, mask, wash hands and live life as protected as possible.

Jim
 

silentg

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I just came home from my semi-annual function test and meeting with my pulmonologist. The good news, my progressive lung disease is better, I'm back to where I tested in 2014! WooHoo! So I asked if I should consider a Covid diagnosis a death sentence. He said, "Absolutely not!" If I present at the FIRST evidence of symptoms, I'd have an 85% chance of walking out. Not a walk-in-the-park, but survivable. He said the numbers we see on TV every night undercount the 'real' number of infections by between 4X & 10X. For each person diagnosed as positive, there arre spouses, children, siblings and kids in the household as well as an 'orbit' of friends and acquaintances we all have who have been exposed and may be contagious while being asymptomatic and untested.

The meeting with the doc- Our ONLY pulmonologist- made me feel hopeful, but also encouraged to cover, mask, wash hands and live life as protected as possible.

Jim
Common sense is a disappearing thing. Stay safe and healthy. Glad you got a good report from pulmonologist!
 

billymach4

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Jim, much to my disappointment and surprise I keep hearing of friends and acquaintances getting COVID in and around Bonneville county and the Lab employees. Including the INL director in charge of the INL. Keep safe. I am sure you will.
 

easyrider

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Jim, much to my disappointment and surprise I keep hearing of friends and acquaintances getting COVID in and around Bonneville county and the Lab employees. Including the INL director in charge of the INL. Keep safe. I am sure you will.
Don't worry too much. I know over 100+ people that have tested positive for covid 19 and a few that actually had symptoms. The people that had symptoms had a range from flu to loosing their sense of taste and smell. My mom had it in the nursing home she seems to stuck in. She is about 85 and has recovered.

This is our county case count as of today. Pretty much every one that has passed away from covid in our area had pre-existing conditions with some exceptions in the 30 - 60 ranges. We are still in phase 1.

Bill

Updated July 29, 2020 at 4:10 pm



Age RangeCase Count PercentageDeceased
0-19136513%0
20-29227922%1
30-39193519%3
40-49162816%9
50-59143514%14
60-698448%26
70-794414%52
80+3984%89
TOTAL10,325100%194
 

billymach4

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Don't worry too much. I know over 100+ people that have tested positive for covid 19 and a few that actually had symptoms. The people that had symptoms had a range from flu to loosing their sense of taste and smell. My mom had it in the nursing home she seems to stuck in. She is about 85 and has recovered.

This is our county case count as of today. Pretty much every one that has passed away from covid in our area had pre-existing conditions with some exceptions in the 30 - 60 ranges. We are still in phase 1.

Bill

Updated July 29, 2020 at 4:10 pm



Age RangeCase CountPercentageDeceased
0-19136513%0
20-29227922%1
30-39193519%3
40-49162816%9
50-59143514%14
60-698448%26
70-794414%52
80+3984%89
TOTAL10,325100%194
DW is severely immune deficient. Take IV immunoglobulin subcutaneously weekly. Her body can't manufacture immunity. That's our dilemma.
 

easyrider

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DW is severely immune deficient. Take IV immunoglobulin subcutaneously weekly. Her body can't manufacture immunity. That's our dilemma.
Yup, that is a problemo. What do you do ? Is it just avoiding every one ?

Bill
 

DavidnRobin

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Excellent news article from UCSF on Covid mechanisms that is well written and relatively easy to understand — even @DeniseM ;)
(Certainly better that The Cell article that I linked previously)
Bottom-Line: ACE2 receptors continue to look like a culprit for disease progression
(btw - looks like IL-6 targeted therapies were a bust...)



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FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW GRAPHS:
A month ago someone on TUG (not naming names) saw that deaths were down (in his graph) and predicted that they would stay down.
I disagreed and said "show me a graph in a month"......well here it is.
We're in a mess, and it's only getting worse.....People are not adhering to safe practices, and that is the reason.


1596385879491.png
 

billymach4

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FOR THOSE WHO FOLLOW GRAPHS:
A month ago someone on TUG (not naming names) saw that deaths were down (in his graph) and predicted that they would stay down.
I disagreed and said "show me a graph in a month"......well here it is.
We're in a mess, and it's only getting worse.....People are not adhering to safe practices, and that is the reason.


View attachment 24394
Covid Deaths are a lagging always a lagging indicator!
 
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Ken555

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For those who still think masks only provide partial, or no, protection, please watch this video. It’s somewhat entertaining, so many of you may enjoy it.



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