You're Being Lied to About Electric Cars

[Ken555]

Mac or PC?

Beta

 

[Carolinian]

The problem with ev's is China has dominance over all countries because they control over 80% of the lithium and rare earth materials. The only reason China doesn't dominate in North America is because of tariffs. While this may seem like a nothing burger, China has succeeded in opening EV markets in Europe, South America, Africa, India and Russia. While this is going on, Chevy, Ford, Dodge, Ram, Volkswagon and other main car manufacturers are going bankrupt trying to switch to ev's.

The only way to change this scenario is to invent a better technology which make ev's irrelevant.

Bill

China is building EV factories in Mexico to try to dominate our market. They are also a threat in Europe, where some countries have been putting high tariffs on Chinese EV's to protect their own automakers.

China uses merchantilism. They undercut everybody else to drive competitors out of the market and then raise prices. They have done that in the pharmeceutical industry. The only way to stop merchantilism is with tariffs.

All of this "green" stuff from wind and solar energy to EV's is designed to make us dependent on China, which is strategically a very bad thing.

 

[davidvel]

China is building EV factories in Mexico to try to dominate our market. They are also a threat in Europe, where some countries have been putting high tariffs on Chinese EV's to protect their own automakers.

China uses merchantilism. They undercut everybody else to drive competitors out of the market and then raise prices. They have done that in the pharmeceutical industry. The only way to stop merchantilism is with tariffs.

All of this "green" stuff from wind and solar energy to EV's is designed to make us dependent on China, which is strategically a very bad thing.

"Designed." Conspiracy. 2020.

 

[emeryjre]

The United States developed the first Lithium Batteries for use in an EV
The story of how China became the world leader in lithium battery production and EVs is a story in itself
Another opportunity missed by US and US industry

 

[PigsDad]

"Designed." Conspiracy. 2020.

"They" must have "designed" us being dependent on foreign steel as well.

The United States developed the first Lithium Batteries for use in an EV
The story of how China became the world leader in lithium battery production and EVs is a story in itself
Another opportunity missed by US and US industry

The US cannot compete in many manufacturing industries because our labor costs are just way too high. Our labor unions demand $40+/hour when foreign plants pay a tiny fraction of that for their labor. Instead of an opportunity missed, in reality it was never an opportunity in the first place.

Kurt

 

[Brett]

China is building EV factories in Mexico to try to dominate our market. They are also a threat in Europe, where some countries have been putting high tariffs on Chinese EV's to protect their own automakers.

China uses merchantilism. They undercut everybody else to drive competitors out of the market and then raise prices. They have done that in the pharmeceutical industry. The only way to stop merchantilism is with tariffs.

All of this "green" stuff from wind and solar energy to EV's is designed to make us dependent on China, which is strategically a very bad thing.

American Wind & American Solar Rays !!


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https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/in-a-first-wind-and-solar-generated-more-power-than-coal-in-u-s/

 

[emeryjre]

"They" must have "designed" us being dependent on foreign steel as well.


The US cannot compete in many manufacturing industries because our labor costs are just way too high. Our labor unions demand $40+/hour when foreign plants pay a tiny fraction of that for their labor. Instead of an opportunity missed, in reality it was never an opportunity in the first place.

Kurt

Elon Has a Battery Manufacturing Facility in Reno, Nevada
He has vehicle production facilities in several spots in the US
Rivian and Lucid EVs are produced in the US

 

[HitchHiker71]

"They" must have "designed" us being dependent on foreign steel as well.


The US cannot compete in many manufacturing industries because our labor costs are just way too high. Our labor unions demand $40+/hour when foreign plants pay a tiny fraction of that for their labor. Instead of an opportunity missed, in reality it was never an opportunity in the first place.

Kurt

Actually it’s not so much that we cannot compete as that we only manufacture goods that require automation - we only utilize advanced manufacturing technologies today here in the US. Many people are surprised when they realize that US manufacturing output is at all time highs and has steadily increased over time except for brief periods during recessions:

Industrial Production - 100 Year Historical Chart

This interactive chart tracks the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index, which measures real output for all facilities located in the United States manufacturing, mining, and electric, and gas utilities (excluding those in U.S. territories).

www.macrotrends.net

So while US manufacturing output has persistently increased - today we simply use machines to build products, and this trend will only increase with more focus on automation and robotics in the future.

The idea that we are somehow ever going to return to the good old days of seeing major growth within the US manufacturing labor force is merely a talking point and nothing more. We will continue to see manufacturing output rise - however we will never again see corresponding significant gains in US manufacturing labor statistics. Anyone who says otherwise is simply telling people what they may want to hear given the data does not support this outcome.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[PigsDad]

Elon Has a Battery Manufacturing Facility in Reno, Nevada
He has vehicle production facilities in several spots in the US
Rivian and Lucid EVs are produced in the US

Yes, and Tesla, Rivian and Lucid are premium-level vehicles so cost isn't as big of a deal. They could not compete w/ the cheap Chinese entry-level vehicles using US labor. There was no way the US was ever going to be the main manufacturer of EV battery packs in the world; just not cost effective.

Kurt

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

Actually it’s not so much that we cannot compete as that we only manufacture goods that require automation - we only utilize advanced manufacturing technologies today here in the US. Many people are surprised when they realize that US manufacturing output is at all time highs and has steadily increased over time except for brief periods during recessions:

View attachment 100926

Industrial Production - 100 Year Historical Chart

This interactive chart tracks the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production Index, which measures real output for all facilities located in the United States manufacturing, mining, and electric, and gas utilities (excluding those in U.S. territories).

www.macrotrends.net

View attachment 100928

So while US manufacturing output has persistently increased - today we simply use machines to build products, and this trend will only increase with more focus on automation and robotics in the future.

View attachment 100929

The idea that we are somehow ever going to return to the good old days of seeing major growth within the US manufacturing labor force is merely a talking point and nothing more. We will continue to see manufacturing output rise - however we will never again see corresponding significant gains in US manufacturing labor statistics. Anyone who says otherwise is simply telling people what they may want to hear given the data does not support this outcome.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Something to consider - as automation becomes embedded in lower and lower cost products, what will happen to all that overseas labor? and the finished product shipping?

 

[easyrider]

EVs emit extremely low frequency EMFs (ELFs) not LFs, there's a difference. The battery packs in all Tesla's are shielded and have been tested by the government and emit less than 20% of the published limits. The electric motors generally emit the most ELFs in EVs. In general, once you are beyond about 20 inches from any ELF source - the ELFs dissipate by orders of magnitude such that they are not harmful at all. In so far as the vast majority of Tesla EVs are concerned (meaning all MYs and M3s) - given they are RWD by default unless you are really hammering the go pedal, the permanent magnet (PM) electric motor in the rear of the vehicle is 4+ feet away from the front passengers on average (and has a lot of materials that mitigate the ELFs) - and the front induction motor is only close enough to the front footwell itself to cause any possible concern - and that motor is only engaged under aggressive acceleration and/or when the traction control system indicates it is necessary (though it is always spinning).

I'm reading that all ev's emit ELF which means "extremely low frequency" radiation. EMF radiation is "electromagnetic field radiation" and ev's emit this too. In ev's, both of these radiations are considered safe levels, which they are, until you add in the amount of exposure. Studies do support that non-ionizing radiation is safe for humans but studies of non-ionizing radiation in rats show this low level radiation causes alterations in the brain.

They couldn't prove the cancer clusters in school kids were caused by power lines near the school. They couldn't prove the cancers that people working cell phone towers and electrical equipment had in higher rates than other jobs.

Bill

Electromagnetic Fields 2009 Update

Safety limits have been set by the European Union for the protection of workers and the general public against the effects of mobile phones and other electromagnetic fields. Are these safety limits adequate in the light of recent scientific evidence?

ec.europa.eu

10.3 The past conclusion that extremely low frequency magnetic fields are possibly carcinogenic is still valid. This was concluded based on studies indicating that children exposed to relatively strong magnetic fields from power lines were more likely to develop leukaemia. New studies on human populations indicate a possible increase in Alzheimer's disease arising from exposure to extremely low frequency fields. The results related to leukaemia and Alzheimer’s have not been confirmed or explained by experiments on animals and cell cultures. Further research on cells is needed to examine effects on specific diseases.

 

[easyrider]

"They" must have "designed" us being dependent on foreign steel as well.


The US cannot compete in many manufacturing industries because our labor costs are just way too high. Our labor unions demand $40+/hour when foreign plants pay a tiny fraction of that for their labor. Instead of an opportunity missed, in reality it was never an opportunity in the first place.

Kurt

It's all relative when comparing the cost of living to wages with the exception of the last few years where inflation has increased the cost of living and wages aren't keeping up. The USA can compete because we are the buyers. Tarriffs are just one tool to keep a level playing field.

One big reason the USA doesn't produce steel or lead is the environmental regulations have made our products to expensive to produce.

Bill

 

[PigsDad]

Tesla rallies most in over a decade on Musk's bold EV forecast​

EV sales aren't good; nobody is buying them. Yeah, right.

Kurt

 

[davidvel]

It's all relative when comparing the cost of living to wages with the exception of the last few years where inflation has increased the cost of living and wages aren't keeping up. The USA can compete because we are the buyers. Tarriffs are just one tool to keep a level playing field.

One big reason the USA doesn't produce steel or lead is the environmental regulations have made our products to expensive to produce.

Bill

Produce lead?

 

[HitchHiker71]

Tesla rallies most in over a decade on Musk's bold EV forecast​

EV sales aren't good; nobody is buying them. Yeah, right.

Kurt

Sales/revenues were only up slightly YoY Q3 2023 vs Q3 2024 and in so far as expectations - gross revenues and automotive revenues For Q3 2024 were actually a miss - the stock boost is largely due to beats on EPS, gross margin and net operating margins that were unexpected this quickly following the layoffs and restructurings in Q2 2024. A number of analysts upgraded their TSLA stock target prices as a result. This could be shortlived though, as Q4 is still ahead of us and is always the biggest and most important quarter for any automotive business. Musk almost always says he expects growth - but oftentimes delivers much later than he lets on during the investor calls. It's not that he doesn't deliver - he's just generally too optimistic when it comes to timelines/predictions and therefore delivers quite a bit later vs the expectations set. Makes for a rollercoaster ride for anyone who holds TSLA stock (including yours truly). I think long term TSLA will eventually become one of the most highly valued stocks in history - mostly due to the shift toward sustainable commercial energy (megapacks) and AI/robotics (Optimus and Cybercab) - not because of the legacy automotive business.

None of this is meant to offset your point that BEVs continue to gain marketshare, and largely at the direct expense of ICE marketshare. The rate of increase has slowed, and I think it'll take longer to make the overall transition than the bulls proport, largely due to the simple fact that the average age of personally owned ICE vehicles has steadily increased over the past 20 years and is currently up over 12 years now, and that's just the average. There are folks who keep vehicles much longer, and folks who are always driving newer vehicles - but that's the average. I also think that while BEVs generally meet the majority of consumer driving habits on average, there are still two basic issues that give people pause, as this thread clearly shows. One is charging stations, and the second is the closely related charging time. If I were to put on my prognosticators hat, I'd surmise that until battery tech improves to the point where we can realize 5-10 minute charging sessions up to 80% SoC via either solid state or semi-solid state batteries, and/or high silicone batteries (as opposed to graphite) - either of which offer higher energy densities, higher charge rates (much faster charging sessions), and longer battery life. Neither of these technologies are close to mass production at this point in time though. I've been tracking Tesla's work on their 4680 batteries and we should see 4680 low silicone batteries hopefully sometime in 2025/2026 - dubbed the NC05 and NC30, followed by what is likely the 2170 NC50 series, here's a video on the 4680 nextgen battery tech for anyone interested:

 

[easyrider]

Produce lead?

Produce mean to manufacture a product. Lead is the chemical element Pb. The USA has no primary lead smelters.

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

Something to consider - as automation becomes embedded in lower and lower cost products, what will happen to all that overseas labor? and the finished product shipping?

I think this hits on a much larger issue - the fact that robotic automation (using AI) and AGI/ASI will outright replace a lot of the labor force present today. Longer term, humans simply won't have to work like they do today. This is a huge shift if/when this occurs. It's likely to occur somewhat gradually at first, but once robots and AI are capable of replacing the majority of jobs within a certain industry segment, really whatever segment that is at first, the domino's start to fall from that point forward. This will be a sea change for humanity on a grand scale. It literally will become a brave new world. At that point we'll likely turn our sights toward the stars and space exploration will become the primary focus - whether the moon, Mars, other planets in our solar system, and even beyond that as technology improves and we become a space-faring civilization.

 

[easyrider]

I think this hits on a much larger issue - the fact that robotic automation (using AI) and AGI/ASI will outright replace a lot of the labor force present today. Longer term, humans simply won't have to work like they do today. This is a huge shift if/when this occurs. It's likely to occur somewhat gradually at first, but once robots and AI are capable of replacing the majority of jobs within a certain industry segment, really whatever segment that is at first, the domino's start to fall from that point forward. This will be a sea change for humanity on a grand scale. It literally will become a brave new world. At that point we'll likely turn our sights toward the stars and space exploration will become the primary focus - whether the moon, Mars, other planets in our solar system, and even beyond that as technology improves and we become a space-faring civilization.

It's interesting that AI will probably create more problems than it solves until a time they can be regulated by trustworthy humans who actually understand AI ethics and safe guards. Most humans will use AI for their own purposes which for the most part are greed or power inspired.

Elon Musk has said that he doesn't really care about ev's. What do you think he means ?

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

It's interesting that AI will probably create more problems than it solves until a time they can be regulated by trustworthy humans who actually understand AI ethics and safe guards. Most humans will use AI for their own purposes which for the most part are greed or power inspired.

That's the entire purpose of X.AI really. Produce a TruthGPT as opposed to ChatGPT.

Elon Musk has said that he doesn't really care about ev's. What do you think he means ?

Bill

Context please? Overall, Tesla's mission has always been driven by the Master Plan documents. We are up to Master Plan 3 now - however links to all three plans are here:

https://www.tesla.com/master-plans

Master Plan 3 is here: https://www.tesla.com/master-plan-part-3

BEVs are part of a much larger master plan which outlines a proposed path to reach a sustainable global energy economy through end-use electrification and sustainable electricity generation and storage. BEVs are simply a means to an end as part of a much larger Master Plan. There's been a Master Plan in place since 2006 that drives the entire Tesla mission. Apart from that, Musk has several other companies that drive other missions that he cares about, including The Boring Company, SpaceX, X, X.AI, Neurolink, etc.

 

[Carolinian]

Shocking charts reveal how electric car sales have SLUMPED

MailOnline's graph reveals that global EV sales have slumped in recent months for three top manufacturers, as the public struggles to fall in love with the technology.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[HitchHiker71]

Shocking charts reveal how electric car sales have SLUMPED

MailOnline's graph reveals that global EV sales have slumped in recent months for three top manufacturers, as the public struggles to fall in love with the technology.

www.dailymail.co.uk

The problem with this article is that it's using statistics in a misleading manner to attempt to reinforce a predetermined false narrative. For example, they state that Tesla, VW and BYD sales fell from Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 - which is perfectly normal cyclical car sales behavior. The graphic below - from the article - also shows the exact same pattern in Q4 2022 to Q1 2023 for example - except for Tesla - which was still enjoying topline sales from the Model Y at the time because of the introduction of the MY into the European market via Gigaberlin, which offset this normal pattern. BYD and Volkswagen, and indeed almost every automotive manufacturer sees cyclical sales patterns - the lowest sales volume is in Q1, and then we typically see increasing sales volumes in Q2, Q3, and Q4 - with Q4 almost universally being the best sales volume quarter in the automotive sector. This data paints a normal picture.

This article also falsely associates VW recently making an announcement that they may be closing three automotive factories in Germany, however they conveniently don't point out that all three of those factories are primarily ICE vehicle manufacturing factories. The possible closure of these factories in Germany mostly has to do with high labor costs, coupled with outdated expensive manufacturing methods.

Let's look at US vehicle sales by month now to see if this same pattern holds:

Notice the large drops from Q4 into Q1 each year - same pattern - and this is for ALL light vehicle sales - not just BEVs - same pattern. This is why statistics can be misleading when used to reinforce a false premise. Now let's look at BEV marketshare - which tells the real story - global up through 2023 first:

Now US EV marketshare:

The latest data now shows that EV market share in 2024 is at 9% - up again from the year prior. So while the rate of market share increase is slowing, the EV market share - both globally and here in the US - continues to increase. If we include hybrids, here's the data: https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=62924

Notice that we're up to almost 20% of vehicles sold for all light duty vehicles - and it's almost directly at the expense of traditional ICE vehicles, which are now down to 81% and falling.

 

[easyrider]

The car lots in our area really don't sell too many ev's but Toyota does sell a lot of hybrids. In the USA, EV sales are mostly in California, Florida and Texas.

You aren't comparing apples to apples when comparing the USA & BRIC Countries for EV usage or adding them in to calculate global EV usage because of cheap Chinese EV's. EV's are about done regarding legacy auto makers in the USA, imo.

Bill

 

[slip]

I came across this discussion on Shortwave radio this evening. I thought it was pretty interesting. It is about the EU adding tariffs to Chinese EV's. It is a roundtable discussion on a program called "The Point" and it's from China Radio International. There are some programs that they broadcast in English throughout the evening. It's definitely a different point of view.

I missed the first minute of the discussion. I thought of this threaded as I was listening. I thought some may be interested.

 

[letsgobobby]

In the USA, EV sales are mostly in California, Florida and Texas.

Bill

Can you tell me where "most" pick up truck sales are in the USA? How about Subarus? Toyota Camrys?

Do you think California, Florida, and Texas might sell the most EVs because they are the the most populated states in the US?

 

[Carolinian]

Here is another one. a top of the line Mercedes EV spontaneous combusting from its lithium battery in its owners driveway.