You're Being Lied to About Electric Cars

[HitchHiker71]

The Bolt battery failure was due to a manufacturer defect, not the cell design. The Bolt battery performs well WHEN THE SUPPLIER MANUFACTURES THE PART AS DESIGNED. Stay in your lane fan boi.

The problem consists of two LG manufacturing defects (a torn anode tab and folded separator) that, in rare circumstances, can simultaneously present in a single battery cell in the LG battery module used in the Bolt batteries.

The anode is part of the core cell design and manufacturing process. In this case it appears to have been a manufacturing defect.

And yes, this manufacturing defect was also temperature related internal to the pack, as you received a letter from GM stating not to charge beyond 80% as the fire risk elevated quite a bit when charging beyond 80% up to 100% due to high SOC which is the same as higher heat production which increased the chances of the defective cell shorting and catching fire.

That said, IIRC I never said cell design was the problem anywhere. I said pack architecture for cell temperature management is compromised by design when attempting to produce packs in a modular fashion, which is what Ford has been doing with the packs in the F150L, and what GM has been doing with the Ultium packs, up until a Tesla engineer Kurt Kelty recently was hired to take over the entire Ultium division, and surprise surprise GM is now likely backing off the modular design architecture and will undoubtedly embrace the same tech that Tesla has pioneered over the past 12 years:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/08/gm-ditching-ultium-name-for-batteries-tech-amid-ev-changes.html

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[HitchHiker71]

Contrary to the FUD, Consumer Reports surveys indicate that Tesla is the least expensive car brand to maintain over a ten year ownership period (which is logical considering they have the fewest moving parts prone to failure over time):

Car Brands Ranked by Maintenance and Repair Costs Over Time - Consumer Reports

In this look at the cost of car ownership, CR reveals the difference in maintenance and repair costs among 29 car brands at 5 and 10 years of ownership, based on member data.

www.consumerreports.org

 

[easyrider]

This article reminded me of a certain someone.

The science behind why people think they're right when they're actually wrong

A new study illustrates the saying, "you don't know what you don't know."

www.nbcnews.com

The article reads like a younger millennial or older gen z person wrote it. It sounds about right for NBC to say this is health and science, lol. In real life the theory is called the Dunning Krueger effect which occurs when people with low knowledge or ability overestimate their competence. People who are bad at something may not have the skills to accurately evaluate their own performance, which is why when hiring, I would rather see what a person can do rather than hear what they can do.

From your article.
The idea is that if you ask the average person if they know how a toilet works, they will likely reply that they do. But upon being asked to explain how a toilet works, they quickly realize they don’t know how a toilet works, just how to get it to work by pressing a lever.

“It’s not just that people are wrong. It’s that they are so confident in their wrongness that is the problem,” Schwartz said.

The antidote, he added, is “being curious and being humble.”

This is the only statement in the article that I liked because in reality it's true for everyone.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

Contrary to the FUD, Consumer Reports surverys indicate that Tesla is the least expensive car brand to maintain over a ten year ownership period (which is logical considering they have the fewest moving parts prone to failure over time):

Car Brands Ranked by Maintenance and Repair Costs Over Time - Consumer Reports

In this look at the cost of car ownership, CR reveals the difference in maintenance and repair costs among 29 car brands at 5 and 10 years of ownership, based on member data.

www.consumerreports.org

A Tesla is a good choice of vehicle when you live in an area that has infrastructure, decent climate and service centers for them. So what happens after 10 years ? Many people keep their vehicles running for a long time. My oldest running vehicle is a 33 year old 92 Dodge Ram with a Cummins and has over 600,000 miles on it. It gets 20 mpg. Many vehicles can run a long time without problems.

I think the first Tesla's were the Roadsters made in 2008. I'm not sure of the reliability of the first generations but they are one of the coolest looking cars ever made, imo.

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

A Tesla is a good choice of vehicle when you live in an area that has infrastructure, decent climate and service centers for them.

I agree with the infrastructure item. Decent climate is relative. Norway has the highest worldwide adoption of BEVs yet isn't known for it's friendly climate really - inland areas have cold winters and hot summers for example:

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/tesla-extends-lead-norway-evs-take-record-82-market-share-2024-01-02/

Service centers are surely important, including mobile service centers, yet not needed nearly as often as service centers for ICE vehicles on average - given the lower complexity of the powertrain and drivetrain. Crazy as it may sound, Optimus is being trained on mobile service using AI, coupled with Robovans for mobile service. Not going to happen tomorrow, but in 5-10 years time I'd expect service along this line to become the norm for Tesla vehicles:

So what happens after 10 years ? Many people keep their vehicles running for a long time. My oldest running vehicle is a 33 year old 92 Dodge Ram with a Cummins and has over 600,000 miles on it. It gets 20 mpg. Many vehicles can run a long time without problems.

I'm sure outfits like Consumer Reports will track longer term service data for BEVs beyond 10 years - but the oldest mass production Tesla vehicles are only 12 years old now (2012 first year of Model S production). Only time will tell how reliable BEVs are over a 20 year timeframe.

I think the first Tesla's were the Roadsters made in 2008. I'm not sure of the reliability of the first generations but they are one of the coolest looking cars ever made, imo.

Bill

Tesla roadsters weren't mass production vehicles. They only made 2450 between 2008-2012 and that platform was really a proving ground to iron out mass production BEV concepts for the Model S that started mass production in 2012.

 

[emeryjre]

Someone in my area has an original Tesla Roadster
I see it cruising at the beach occasionally

 

[easyrider]

Crazy as it may sound, Optimus is being trained on mobile service using AI, coupled with Robovans for mobile service. Not going to happen tomorrow, but in 5-10 years time I'd expect service along this line to become the norm for Tesla vehicles:

That sounds and looks crazy. It makes me wonder why anyone would have a job in the near future. It seems like what was science fiction is now science.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

Someone in my area has an original Tesla Roadster
I see it cruising at the beach occasionally

I've never seen one in real life.

Bill

 

[davidvel]

That sounds and looks crazy. It makes me wonder why anyone would have a job in the near future. It seems like what was science fiction is now science.

Bill

Robots will not be driving autonomously out to cars and repair them in the near future. It is still fiction, not science.

 

[easyrider]

Robots will not be driving autonomously out to cars and repair them in the near future. It is still fiction, not science.

A friend of mine is using robotic ag equipment to pick grapes. The grape picker looks like a large box machine and not so much like a humanoid robot. I have a feeling that it won't be long before there are humanoid type ag robots working all aspects of ag work. Probably made by Tesla or the PRC.

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

Robots will not be driving autonomously out to cars and repair them in the near future. It is still fiction, not science.

Tesla cars, which are simply robots on wheels, are already doing this every day. Here’s but one example (there are many others every day recorded just like this for anyone to see):

x.com

x.com

The Optimus robot itself won’t drive anywhere in other words. Agreed that a robot performing repairs isn’t going to happen tomorrow, but it’s not as far off as many think. The same end to end neural networks that trained the SDV (or in the case of a service vehicle an autonomous Robovan) above to drive itself with zero human intervention are also training Optimus robots to do basic tasks today. It’s only a matter of time before the neural nets mature and robots become capable of performing more complex tasks, like repairing vehicles. How long? IDK - best guess 5-10 years, but that’s just a guess. It’s a question of when not if IMHO.

My point is, five years ago FSD was a pipe dream and hardly worked, today FSD can literally perform zero intervention drives end to end using robot SDVs. Five years - from a system that hardly worked - to today - an end to end neural network trained via 100% video content using millions of curated videos fed into the system - driving SDVs every minute of every day with zero interventions. Admittedly - this isn't always the case - as the Tesla FSD system is not yet a true autonomous L4/L5 type system (it only has regulatory approval for L2/L3 today). This is why I'm saying 5-10 years for robots doing human tasks - perhaps even complex human tasks - like repairing vehicles - which is really a rather repetitive type of task once the issue has been diagnosed - which is more often than not done by software these days. What I mean is, the SDV will tell the system what's wrong, and a robot will be dispatched to repair that specific issue - trained by the same 100% video based neural network that has trained SDVs cars to drive on our roads. Driving on roads via FSD is a very complex task really - especially given random events and having to deal with other human drivers that often do wildly unexpected things when behind the wheel. Yet this system today can do exactly that for the vast majority of miles driven. What's the difference between a robot on wheels vs a robot in human form when it comes to learning complex tasks? The answer is, not as much as people think. If FSD has done this within five years time, I'd say it at least possible the same will happen with humanoid robots within that same period of time.

We use FSD in our 2023 MY all the time. My wife uses it almost daily to drive her around and more often than not, these are intervention free drives. Just last night, she left her primary job, and had FSD drive her from her place of business to her part time job from curb to curb with zero interventions (this was a new client so she had never driven to this destination before), including parking the vehicle upon arrival at her destination via Autopark. This technology, for those who don't actually use FSD on a regular basis, is truly rather impressive at this stage of the game. This is why We, Robot just debuted an autonomous L4/L5 robotaxi on 10/10 - along with the Robovan and Optimus robots performing various basic tasks for all to see for several hours in the LA area at a private event hosted at a major studio. Here's a link to one of many videos from this event:

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[Carolinian]

German automobile insurance stats show that 34% of German EV owners are switching back to conventional gas or diesel automobiles.

From an English language Hungarian news site:

German e-car owners are increasingly switching back to combustion vehicles

While electric vehicles are described as the wave of the future, new troubling statistics from Germany’s largest auto insurance company show that many electric vehicle owners may be very unsatisfied with the performance of their vehicles. The data from Huk-Coburg shows that 34 percent of all...

rmx.news

 

[davidvel]

A friend of mine is using robotic ag equipment to pick grapes. The grape picker looks like a large box machine and not so much like a humanoid robot. I have a feeling that it won't be long before there are humanoid type ag robots working all aspects of ag work. Probably made by Tesla or the PRC.

Bill

Nice story I guess. Not sure why you quoted my post, though, as this has nothing to do with my comment. My point was I don't think robots will be driving autonomously out to cars and repairing them in the near future.

 

[HitchHiker71]

German automobile insurance stats show that 34% of German EV owners are switching back to conventional gas or diesel automobiles.

From an English language Hungarian news site:

German e-car owners are increasingly switching back to combustion vehicles

While electric vehicles are described as the wave of the future, new troubling statistics from Germany’s largest auto insurance company show that many electric vehicle owners may be very unsatisfied with the performance of their vehicles. The data from Huk-Coburg shows that 34 percent of all...

rmx.news

Meanwhile, here in the US, where we all likely live and work:

Electric Vehicle Sales Mark Another Record in Q3​

According to new estimates from Kelley Blue Book, electric vehicle (EV) sales in the U.S. grew by 11% year over year in the third quarter and reached record highs for both volume and market share. According to the latest counts, an estimated 346,3091 EVs were sold in Q3 2024, a 5% increase from Q2. The EV share of sales in Q3 hit 8.9%, the highest level recorded and an increase from 7.8% in Q3 2023.

“While year-over-year growth has slowed, EV sales in the U.S. continue to march higher,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “The growth is being fueled in part by Incentives and discounts; but as more affordable EVs enter the market and infrastructure improves, we can expect even greater adoption in the coming years.”

Full article:

Electric Vehicle Sales Mark Another Record in Q3, Thanks to Higher Incentives, More Choices - Cox Automotive Inc.

Cox Automotive publishes a quarterly Kelley Blue Book new-vehicle sales report enumerating electric vehicle sales.

www.coxautoinc.com

 

[emeryjre]

Nice story I guess. Not sure why you quoted my post, though, as this has nothing to do with my comment. My point was I don't think robots will be driving autonomously out to cars and repairing them in the near future.

What do use as a time frame to "near future"

 

[easyrider]

Nice story I guess. Not sure why you quoted my post, though, as this has nothing to do with my comment. My point was I don't think robots will be driving autonomously out to cars and repairing them in the near future.

Probably not in Central Washington any time soon is my guess. Austin seems like the first place. Maybe California.

It's funny that the Tesla robot is called Optimus. My son had a robot toy called Optimus Prime that turned into a semi-truck. It would be weird if the Tesla Optimus robot became a service vehicle that turns into a robot. Now that's science fiction, imo.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

Meanwhile, here in the US, where we all likely live and work:

Electric Vehicle Sales Mark Another Record in Q3​

According to new estimates from Kelley Blue Book, electric vehicle (EV) sales in the U.S. grew by 11% year over year in the third quarter and reached record highs for both volume and market share. According to the latest counts, an estimated 346,3091 EVs were sold in Q3 2024, a 5% increase from Q2. The EV share of sales in Q3 hit 8.9%, the highest level recorded and an increase from 7.8% in Q3 2023.

“While year-over-year growth has slowed, EV sales in the U.S. continue to march higher,” said Stephanie Valdez Streaty, director of Industry Insights at Cox Automotive. “The growth is being fueled in part by Incentives and discounts; but as more affordable EVs enter the market and infrastructure improves, we can expect even greater adoption in the coming years.”

Full article:

Electric Vehicle Sales Mark Another Record in Q3, Thanks to Higher Incentives, More Choices - Cox Automotive Inc.

Cox Automotive publishes a quarterly Kelley Blue Book new-vehicle sales report enumerating electric vehicle sales.

www.coxautoinc.com

The problem with ev's is China has dominance over all countries because they control over 80% of the lithium and rare earth materials. The only reason China doesn't dominate in North America is because of tariffs. While this may seem like a nothing burger, China has succeeded in opening EV markets in Europe, South America, Africa, India and Russia. While this is going on, Chevy, Ford, Dodge, Ram, Volkswagon and other main car manufacturers are going bankrupt trying to switch to ev's.

The only way to change this scenario is to invent a better technology which make ev's irrelevant.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

Another EV oddity is that there are no concerns about low level non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation which has been shown to cause cancers with prolonged exposure.

Bill

Hybrid & Electric Cars: Electromagnetic Radiation Risks

How much exposure is there to electric and magnetic fields in automobiles, especially hybrid or electric vehicles. Are there health risks?

www.saferemr.com

Hybrid & Electric Cars: Electromagnetic Radiation Risks​

Hybrid and electric cars may be cancer-causing as they emit extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields (EMF). Recent studies of the EMF emitted by these automobiles have claimed either that they pose a cancer risk for the vehicles' occupants or that they are safe.
Unfortunately, much of the research conducted on this issue has been industry-funded by companies with vested interests on one side of the issue or the other which makes it difficult to know which studies are trustworthy.

 

[davidvel]

Another EV oddity is that there are no concerns about low level non-ionizing electromagnetic radiation which has been shown to cause cancers with prolonged exposure.

Bill

Hybrid & Electric Cars: Electromagnetic Radiation Risks

How much exposure is there to electric and magnetic fields in automobiles, especially hybrid or electric vehicles. Are there health risks?

www.saferemr.com

Hybrid & Electric Cars: Electromagnetic Radiation Risks​

Hybrid and electric cars may be cancer-causing as they emit extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic fields (EMF). Recent studies of the EMF emitted by these automobiles have claimed either that they pose a cancer risk for the vehicles' occupants or that they are safe.
Unfortunately, much of the research conducted on this issue has been industry-funded by companies with vested interests on one side of the issue or the other which makes it difficult to know which studies are trustworthy.

Great unbiased source Bill.

 

[easyrider]

Great unbiased source Bill.

Here's another study that suggests that ELF can be dangerous regarding long term exposure. A cell phone battery is very small compared to an EV battery. The cell phone electrical transmission is also smaller than the similar EV electrical transmissions. The EV electrical transissions might be the same as a regular car equipped with similar electronics but the EV battery is way bigger, there are more electrical devices at work in a EV and the exposure is constant, imo.

Bill

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0269749118310157

Exposure to low frequency and radiofrequency electromagnetic fields at low intensities poses a significant health hazard that has not been adequately addressed by national and international organizations such as the World Health Organization. There is strong evidence that excessive exposure to mobile phone-frequencies over long periods of time increases the risk of brain cancer both in humans and animals.

 

[davidvel]

Doc. Brown would be proud. We're back to 2020 again.

 

[HitchHiker71]

Here's another study that suggests that ELF can be dangerous regarding long term exposure. A cell phone battery is very small compared to an EV battery. The cell phone electrical transmission is also smaller than the similar EV electrical transmissions. The EV electrical transissions might be the same as a regular car equipped with similar electronics but the EV battery is way bigger, there are more electrical devices at work in a EV and the exposure is constant, imo.

Bill

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0269749118310157

Exposure to low frequency and radiofrequency electromagnetic fields at low intensities poses a significant health hazard that has not been adequately addressed by national and international organizations such as the World Health Organization. There is strong evidence that excessive exposure to mobile phone-frequencies over long periods of time increases the risk of brain cancer both in humans and animals.

EVs emit extremely low frequency EMFs (ELFs) not LFs, there's a difference. The battery packs in all Tesla's are shielded and have been tested by the government and emit less than 20% of the published limits. The electric motors generally emit the most ELFs in EVs. In general, once you are beyond about 20 inches from any ELF source - the ELFs dissipate by orders of magnitude such that they are not harmful at all. In so far as the vast majority of Tesla EVs are concerned (meaning all MYs and M3s) - given they are RWD by default unless you are really hammering the go pedal, the permanent magnet (PM) electric motor in the rear of the vehicle is 4+ feet away from the front passengers on average (and has a lot of materials that mitigate the ELFs) - and the front induction motor is only close enough to the front footwell itself to cause any possible concern - and that motor is only engaged under aggressive acceleration and/or when the traction control system indicates it is necessary (though it is always spinning).

 

[emeryjre]

Certainly glad Internal combustion engines do not produce any harmful gases as byproducts of their operations

All my friends who drive EVs solved the electrical emissions problem with tin foil underwear

 

[DrQ]

All my friends who drive EVs solved the electrical emissions problem with tin foil underwear

And mylar/metalized socks.

 

[davidvel]

Mac or PC?