Speculation About Marriott's New Timeshare Structure [merged]

[taffy19]

Just got my call from an HH "concierge". She wouldn't leak any information either, but she mentioned that when we arrive on the 20th at MGO the place will be decorated with lots of balloons & what-not for the big announcement and celebration. I actually scheduled a time-slot for an info session, but only with the understanding that I may cancel.... Might be interesting.

Finally, almost official.

 

[WelcomeHome]

Quote from "current "Marriott Rule Changes" Thread

We have own 3 weeks with Marriott (Ocean Pointe, KoLina, OceanWatch). The first 2 were bought from Marriott, the last resale. Over the 15 years that we have owned, each Owner's Forum yields half truths and varying information. However, as we just bought in May via resale, I have a question: upon contacting Marriott first about purchasing a resale (price too high), I was told that owner rules would be changing with respect to priority at home resorts. I have questioned our Marriott Representative about the increased number of people who rent out their units and how, we as owners, cannot get an exchange thru interval. She too also said that this may change as exchanges are almost non existent this year. Interval confirmed this. Both base this on the bad economy.

Has anyone received additional information? I do not trust sales pitches, but a number of our fellow Marriott owners have heard the same information.[/QUOTE ]

I haven't heard about change in priority but I questioned MVCI recently about the numerous unreserved weeks on more than one of our timeshares. They told me many people are behind in their maintenance fees, which means they can't reserve. Therefore they can't rent either. I asked what happens to those units and was told Marriott rents them out.

So, Marriott wins big time since they charge a huge rental fee, more than any maintenance fee, and we who are trying to exchange, lose, as there is less availability.

They also confirmed that there would be a points system and some charge to convert, and that they only expected 20-25% of current owners to convert. That should leave plenty of exchanging according to them...
I suspect the economy and unpaid maintenance fees will mess with trading availability on currently existing TSs more so than the new system. But time will tell.

Norma

Here's a quote from the current "Marriott Rule Changes" Thread in which a salesman states that Marriot is only expecting a "conversion to points" by only about 20% to 25% of the owners. I thought I'd add this new little rumor to the hypothesis pot and see how it gets stirred around by the different opinions here.

Best wishes,
David

 

[ArBravesFan]

New Program

Took to tour of Lakeshore Reserve today. It is BRAND new, opened nine days ago. It is over the top beautiful! Amazing grounds. Open air seating areas reminded us of Ko Olina. Very nice!

Anyway, we asked the salesman if he would confirm some suspicions about the new system.

Here is what he "confirmed."

1. You may stay with current system if you so choose.
2. New system will be points driven.
3. Marriott will offer internal exchange with no requirement for II.

He later offerd that new owners will own points non-specific to any resort ("Like Disney" - he is a former DVC salesman. He also said the new system was developed by John Ruble - MVC VP, also a former DVC executive).:ignore:

Interesting. We will see.

Also learned that this was our 25th time to tour a Marriott property. We either have lots of nerve or lots of points ... or both!

 

[WelcomeHome]

Took to tour of Lakeshore Reserve today. It is BRAND new, opened nine days ago. It is over the top beautiful! Amazing grounds. Open air seating areas reminded us of Ko Olina. Very nice!

Anyway, we asked the salesman if he would confirm some suspicions about the new system.

Here is what he "confirmed."

1. You may stay with current system if you so choose.
2. New system will be points driven.
3. Marriott will offer internal exchange with no requirement for II.

He later offerd that new owners will own points non-specific to any resort ("Like Disney" - he is a former DVC salesman. He also said the new system was developed by John Ruble - MVC VP, also a former DVC executive).:ignore:

Interesting. We will see.

Also learned that this was our 25th time to tour a Marriott property. We either have lots of nerve or lots of points ... or both!

This is great news if the new system is similar to Disney's. I'm also an owner at Disney Vacation Club and they have a fabulous system that "almost everyone" is always very happy with. As long as they don't charge an exhorbitant "Penalty Fee" for resale owners to convert, I'd be happy to convert to a points based system which is similar to Disney.

Keep in mind my Disney points provides FULL PROTECTION of HOME RESORT PRIORITY. I simply book my "home resorts" at 11 months out and then everyone has access to any resort (based on availability) at 7 months out. And while it's true that some resorts book up completely before the 7 month window arrives (because different resorts command very high demand based on "unique features of certain types of units" or "seasonal demand" based on what "festivals" are occuring at Disney), it's VERY rare that you can't book your own home resort prior to the opening of the 7 month window. And as far as resorts I don't own, I'm invaribly able to do a very acceptable exchange into other Disney resorts I want provided I make my reservations within a reasonable time (about a month or so) after the 7 month booking window opens.

So if that's the worst of it and they charge a resonable fee to make the conversion (reasonable would be a few hundred dollars), then the new points system sounds like a great deal to me ! ! ! !


Best wishes,
David

 

[Dean]

Took to tour of Lakeshore Reserve today. It is BRAND new, opened nine days ago. It is over the top beautiful! Amazing grounds. Open air seating areas reminded us of Ko Olina. Very nice!

Anyway, we asked the salesman if he would confirm some suspicions about the new system.

Here is what he "confirmed."

1. You may stay with current system if you so choose.
2. New system will be points driven.
3. Marriott will offer internal exchange with no requirement for II.

He later offerd that new owners will own points non-specific to any resort ("Like Disney" - he is a former DVC salesman. He also said the new system was developed by John Ruble - MVC VP, also a former DVC executive).:ignore:

Interesting. We will see.

Also learned that this was our 25th time to tour a Marriott property. We either have lots of nerve or lots of points ... or both!

As noted, DVC does have a home resort priority. In thinking of Marriott vs DVC, I think DVC could far more easily get by without a home resort priority than can Marriott because they have far less variability in location and resort quality than does Marriott. I realize that most points systems do not have a home resort priority but to get my best weeks inside the system, I'll have to have some type of way to assure I can get the weeks I purposefully bought. That's either an overly where I get to chose the points OR the week reservation OR some type of home resort priority that gives me a reasonable chance of getting what I want including multiple units for a given week. We'll see, it should be interesting, esp as details start to leak out this week.

 

[puckmanfl]

Dean:

Looks like we agree here. Without home resort priority I doubt that owners of the "primo" weeks will convert. Let's return to my ski week example. Hypothetically, an owner of a primo Park City or Tahoe ski week will mostly occupy but occasionally might trade to ski in a different location or try something different. I would be willing to wager that the owners of these units purchased mostly to occupy and occasionally exchange. Now these owners, can do a request first before giving up the home resort. I don't think these owners will put their weeks in the points without some assurance they will be able to "snag" a similiar week in return.

I don't believe you will be giving up summer in HHI either without some sort of confidence you could get it back!!!

I on the other hand might be quite inclined to convert my GV weeks even without Home resort priority (if it is not cost prohibitive) as I have ZERO doubts about being able to go to Orlando. If the deal is a "three year term" as per the "survey" I would most likely convert the Hawaii's as 2011 weeks are already booked for my 25th anniv. super trip. I would probably be Hawaii'ed out for a few years after this one. The prospects of some mini jaunts to off season joints within driving distance (HHI, Florida etc) might be quite appealing...

 

[dioxide45]

Here's a quote from the current "Marriott Rule Changes" Thread in which a salesman states that Marriot is only expecting a "conversion to points" by only about 20% to 25% of the owners. I thought I'd add this new little rumor to the hypothesis pot and see how it gets stirred around by the different opinions here.

Best wishes,
David

If they get 20% to convert at say a $1K conversion fee, that comes out to a $100MM sum. A tidy amount that would certainly pay for any investment they put in to developing it.

Something to think about for us if any of this comes to fruition. Many are saying that lowly silver/bronze week owners are more likely to convert than the owners of primo weeks. We own gold in Orlando, and like to use that to exchange in to silver and other gold weeks at other resorts. While there may still be 80% of the weeks in the deeded system, there may only be about 50% of gold and silver weeks left, My gold week won't get me primo weeks and I don't want them anyway.

 

[dioxide45]

Another thing to consider is that a points system is a chance for Marriott to "re-season" a lot of their resorts. A big complaint at many resorts is that people can't get book prime weeks since seasons are too long and there are too many owners competing for only a few weeks.

In a new system there isn't anything stating that Marriott must assign point values off of the existing seasons. They could look at Ocean Pointe and assign more points to the May weeks and fewer points to the September weeks. You may get an average of all of those points in the season you own.

So if you are used to going to OP every May, you may have to instead go in May one year and September the next by borrowing or carrying points over.

Marriott can change the whole game with this.

 

[Asia2000]

This may not be of any impact, but keep in mind that most likely the point system will assign point values to specific days within your week. That way, if you only want to stay Monday through Thursday in the resort (for significantly less points), you can, and then shift somewhere else (maybe a Marriott for $99 a night). Thereby saving your points for the next trip. I'm not sure if I would like this. I'm more of a "camp in one spot" type of person, but if you wanted to move around, the points program gives you that option.

However, it would seem like someone staying only four days would really throw a wrench into the inventory system. I guess Marriott would rather rent four nights than no nights, but during prime weeks, this may be an issue? Possibly they will just use "off the street" inventory to meet the demands of the "less than 7 days" Points users?

 

[tombo]

He later offerd that new owners will own points non-specific to any resort ("Like Disney" - he is a former DVC salesman. He also said the new system was developed by John Ruble - MVC VP, also a former DVC executive).:ignore:

:

I wonder if non specific means that they are selling points packages not tied to a deeded week, or if he was just saying that the points are good at any Marriott. If they are not tied to a specific deeded week all sorts of problems could occur. No home resort advantage, no way to know what weeks are actually in the points systems, and who knows what other problems it would create. Marriott could simply dump all of it's unsold inventory and repossessed weeks and designate an abrtrary number of points to the week and sell points to points members without ever disclosing what (if any) underlying deeded weeks the points they purchased were based on. I assume the sales person was mistaken but if they are selling points not tied to any specific resort that will change things drastically.

 

[PerryM]

The first TUG wave to hit the beaches.....

Just got my call from an HH "concierge". She wouldn't leak any information either, but she mentioned that when we arrive on the 20th at MGO the place will be decorated with lots of balloons & what-not for the big announcement and celebration. I actually scheduled a time-slot for an info session, but only with the understanding that I may cancel.... Might be interesting.

Good god man don't miss that appointment; we're counting on you.

If your cellphone can do live video streaming please do so, if not buy another cell phone please - you have time....

 

[dioxide45]

I wonder if non specific means that they are selling points packages not tied to a deeded week, or if he was just saying that the points are good at any Marriott. If they are not tied to a specific deeded week all sorts of problems could occur. No home resort advantage, no way to know what weeks are actually in the points systems, and who knows what other problems it would create. Marriott could simply dump all of it's unsold inventory and repossessed weeks and designate an abrtrary number of points to the week and sell points to points members without ever disclosing what (if any) underlying deeded weeks the points they purchased were based on. I assume the sales person was mistaken but if they are selling points not tied to any specific resort that will change things drastically.

I think in order for Marriott to sell the dream. Travel to prime locations on prime time, they have to sell points tied to a resort that is a resort you probably don't want to visit. At many of their resorts they only have gold, silver or lower weeks left in inventory. These are the weeks they need to move because people don't want them. Their fix is to assign points to them and you buy the points. Your deed actually shows two winter Branson weeks, but you can use the points from those to get summer in HHI. Of course they could just look at everything that is unsold at conversion day how many points those are worth and sell and deed points. There are too many regulations in place in most states that they won't be able to game the system and oversell the weeks/points allotment.

 

[billymach4]

I have a good friend in Aruba Surf Club right now. She is going to a sales presentation at 9:00am.


Will pass along any new information.

 

[dougp26364]

I think I said before, I think there's a good chance you'll actually like the product they roll out and it's unlikely you'll lose much or anything you have now. The only question in my mind is whether or not you'll like how to get from here to there and my guess is you will not like it because it will involve money.

What's going to be funny is if the program is so good, Perry has to eat crow for all the scary words he's posted and joins the new program himself. :hysterical:

 

[dougp26364]

Many here think this program will be inexpensive and rolled out over the phone. This is a cash cow for Marriott and I will be surprised if the price to convert is less than $3000. Every Marriott salesman is paid on purely commission, and 10% to 20% of $500 is not going to pay their bills. They are used to making 10% to 20% of $25,000 and will not be excited to convert owners for a couple of hundred dollars. Marriott is not revamping the system for the good of the owners, this is to make profit pure and simple, and they will make big money on the points conversions.

To convince owners to pay 1000's of dollars to convert they have to offer big advantages. As I said before they are not creating any new resorts, any new rooms, any new inventory of any kind, so the only way they can create incentives to convert is to give the points owners advantages over owners who don't convert. Once they roll it out we will know for sure what weeks owners are losing, but before they roll it out get prepared because you are going to lose access to inventory minimum, and probably other things yet to be announced. People don't spend $1000's for something that is only marginally better than what they already own. Marriott knows that very well which is why they have worked on this for years and they feel sure the advantages of converting combined with the fear of and disadvantages of not converting will get a huge percentage of the owners to convert at whatever price point they have set.

Prepare to be surprised.

I'm betting the program isn't going to generate ANY sales comissions for the sales staff. Instead, it's going to put people in the seat for them to take a shot at increasing their ownership. I'd bet Marriott puts something in the way of an incentive to get owners to buy, much like they've been doing in the recent past.

 

[dougp26364]

As noted, DVC does have a home resort priority. In thinking of Marriott vs DVC, I think DVC could far more easily get by without a home resort priority than can Marriott because they have far less variability in location and resort quality than does Marriott. I realize that most points systems do not have a home resort priority but to get my best weeks inside the system, I'll have to have some type of way to assure I can get the weeks I purposefully bought. That's either an overly where I get to chose the points OR the week reservation OR some type of home resort priority that gives me a reasonable chance of getting what I want including multiple units for a given week. We'll see, it should be interesting, esp as details start to leak out this week.

I thought most points systems maintained some sort of home resort priority. It's a few trust based ownerships where there is no home resort, just an ownership interest in a trust that includes several resorts, that didn't have what Marriott owners understand as home resort priority.

 

[dougp26364]

..........
However, it would seem like someone staying only four days would really throw a wrench into the inventory system. I guess Marriott would rather rent four nights than no nights, but during prime weeks, this may be an issue? Possibly they will just use "off the street" inventory to meet the demands of the "less than 7 days" Points users?

I would have thought that as well but, with DRI and HGVC, there appears to be a way to manage partial weeks stays that's not to difficult. I don't usually have an issue gettting full week or a partial week stay within either system. I'll agree it doesn't make sense on the surface but, it works.

 

[DanCali]

Just got my call from an HH "concierge". She wouldn't leak any information either, but she mentioned that when we arrive on the 20th at MGO the place will be decorated with lots of balloons & what-not for the big announcement and celebration. I actually scheduled a time-slot for an info session, but only with the understanding that I may cancel.... Might be interesting.

Please try to find out the answer to the $100MM question... how does the inventory get allocated to the points system versus weeks.

For example - say a resort has 2 seasons. Gold is 1-26 and Platinum is 27-52. Now half of the Platinum convert to points... do they (i) take half of each week from 27-52 into the points system? (ii) take the deeded weeks of those who converted to the points system. (iii) do they take the most desirable weeks to the points system (say all July, August, and holiday weeks).

If you can't get a straight answer, we'll have good reason to suspect there is some monkey business going on...

 

[dougp26364]

Please try to find out the answer to the $100MM question... how does the inventory get allocated to the points system versus weeks.

For example - say a resort has 2 seasons. Gold is 1-26 and Platinum is 27-52. Now half of the Platinum convert to points... do they (i) take half of each week from 27-52 into the points system? (ii) take the deeded weeks of those who converted to the points system. (iii) do they take the most desirable weeks to the points system (say all July, August, and holiday weeks).

If you can't get a straight answer, we'll have good reason to suspect there is some monkey business going on...

I know this isn't definitive but, my guess is it will be like other mixed use resorts. There are X number of points based ownership and X number of weeks based ownership for each season. As reservations are made, the tally is kept. If there are 100 points based weeks available once those weeks are reserved thats all that's available for that resort. My bet is it will still be first come, first served.

What will be tricky is if they give points based reseravtions a head start on reserving their weeks. While anything is possible, I don't see Marriott doing that to the weeks based owners. I could see some sort of multi week priority given for reservations like what Marriott currently does (13 months rather than 12 months).

Honestly, I own in a mixed use system and it's not been an issue for either owners in the weeks based reservations system or the points based reservations system. Contrary to the fear mongering that's gone on in this thread, I don't believe it will ever be the problem a few posters are trying to make it out to be.

 

[JimIg23]

Prepare to be surprised.

I'm betting the program isn't going to generate ANY sales comissions for the sales staff. Instead, it's going to put people in the seat for them to take a shot at increasing their ownership. I'd bet Marriott puts something in the way of an incentive to get owners to buy, much like they've been doing in the recent past.

I dont think this will be true. A company wont (I should say shouldnt) ask their sales people to spend several hours a day to get owners to sign up for the new system and not get a penny out of it. Unless the reps are going to be told not to worry about current owner conversions and Marriott will handle them over the phone or something.

 

[m61376]

Another thing to consider is that a points system is a chance for Marriott to "re-season" a lot of their resorts. A big complaint at many resorts is that people can't get book prime weeks since seasons are too long and there are too many owners competing for only a few weeks.

In a new system there isn't anything stating that Marriott must assign point values off of the existing seasons. They could look at Ocean Pointe and assign more points to the May weeks and fewer points to the September weeks. You may get an average of all of those points in the season you own.

So if you are used to going to OP every May, you may have to instead go in May one year and September the next by borrowing or carrying points over.

Marriott can change the whole game with this.

I think that would be a bitter pill for owners to swallow. I brought up this possibility before, so I agree with the possibility, but I think it would be a real pitfall if owners did not get enough points to book every week in their owned system. It is likely to be even more of an issue with neighboring resorts that have different seasons, such as Ocean Pointe and Oceana Palms (with some Silver weeks in one being Platinum in the other), neighboring resorts with one having Plat. holiday weeks and the other Plat. Plus (for ex., Aruba) and even in a few resorts where certain Holiday weeks were initially sold as Plat. but later as Plat. Plus. I think those will be particular challenges.

I know I frequently go to Aruba the first week in Feb., which has a TDI equivalent to holiday weeks. IF a points system doesn't give me enough points to book the week I generally do, I'd be hard pressed to join. I think people will take notice if they aren't given enough points to book the prime weeks in their owned season.

 

[m61376]

I dont think this will be true. A company wont (I should say shouldnt) ask their sales people to spend several hours a day to get owners to sign up for the new system and not get a penny out of it. Unless the reps are going to be told not to worry about current owner conversions and Marriott will handle them over the phone or something.

I agree- but the price doesn't have to be high for both Marriott and the salespeople to be happy. Commission salespeople depend on two things- the commission percent and the volume of their sales. Let's say, for argument's sake, they charge $1000 per week- if half of 400,000 owner weeks convert, that's $200,000,000. Currently, for every 10 timeshare presentations made, 8-9 yield nothing to the salesperson. Roll-out the new system- even at 10% commission- for those same 10 presentations the salesperson would be getting a base commission of $500 (for the half of the converters) plus the opportunity to sell more points to current owners.

Rather than costing Marriott to do sales presentations (in the form of all those freebies) Marriott will be earning money on those sales presentations, assuming the new program is attractive. Instead of having to entice visitors to waste 90 minutes of their time, many owners will be asking for updates. Repeat customers are always the best audience for future sales.

I can see how this would be potentially very profitable both for Marriott and their salespeople. I am just not so sure about owner reaction in this economy. I understand what was posted above about increasing sales, even in a bad economy, by concentrating on the employed. But even most of the employed I know have been adversely impacted- whether by market losses, company-wide cuts in salary, or both professional and retail decreased business as a trickle down effect of client belt tightening. I think Marriott is walking a fine line in this economy. I'm not so sure that people won't balk at being asked to fork over thousands of dollars more for something that many consider a luxury item in the first place.

Personally, of course depending on the program details - including home resort advantage, point allocation and MF structuring - I would find a Disney like flexibility attractive, but at a $500-$1000 cost. Anything over 1K I think will be hard to get a jump start today. And I think they'd need to give multi-week owners a discounted rate- perhaps 1K for the first week, $500 for the second and $250 each for 3 or more.

Then again, IF they roll out an Asia Pacific points type program, I wouldn't join for free, let alone the 5K price tag attached.

 

[PerryM]

Who's crowing about crow?

What's going to be funny is if the program is so good, Perry has to eat crow for all the scary words he's posted and joins the new program himself. :hysterical:

Hey I have an entire cook book on preparing crow - I've enjoyed many of it's recipes.

I've presented the worst case scenario - that's who I am.

Some of you have presented the best case scenario - that's who you are.

Marriott is going to present their best case scenario for their stockholders - that's who they are.

We all do what's best for them and everything works out fine...

 

[jlf58]

smart man

Prepare to be surprised.

I'm betting the program isn't going to generate ANY sales comissions for the sales staff. Instead, it's going to put people in the seat for them to take a shot at increasing their ownership. I'd bet Marriott puts something in the way of an incentive to get owners to buy, much like they've been doing in the recent past.

 

[Clark]

Please try to find out the answer to the $100MM question... how does the inventory get allocated to the points system versus weeks.

OK I will get you this answer. Gimme a couple of weeks ---