Speculation About Marriott's New Timeshare Structure [merged]

[puckmanfl]

good evening!!

That is why this is so unnerving!! I also have ZERO interest in External Exchanges. I think at the end of the day I am going to be a converter. I wonder if you will be able to convert some weeks without others? It would probably make sense to convert my 3 bedroom GV weeks as I very rarely need 3 bedrooms and I can't imagine it would be difficult getting back into Orlando with ANY Internal Exchange program. Not so sure about the Hawaii weeks, might want to keep and use them (and keep home field advantage) as getting like/like exchanges may prove dicey as points make the demand for primo weeks increase (with adding/borrowing and banking) an option...

I do believe that points will be great for short stays in off season joints. I am convinced that a May 4 day HHI stay will be doable. I am not as optimistic for like/like plat exchanges. Waiohai for ski week etc!!!

 

[Dean]

This TUG article explains the how guarantee works, at least in Florida.

Thanks for the link.

 

[Dean]

good evening!!

That is why this is so unnerving!! I also have ZERO interest in External Exchanges. I think at the end of the day I am going to be a converter. I wonder if you will be able to convert some weeks without others? It would probably make sense to convert my 3 bedroom GV weeks as I very rarely need 3 bedrooms and I can't imagine it would be difficult getting back into Orlando with ANY Internal Exchange program. Not so sure about the Hawaii weeks, might want to keep and use them (and keep home field advantage) as getting like/like exchanges may prove dicey as points make the demand for primo weeks increase (with adding/borrowing and banking) an option...

I do believe that points will be great for short stays in off season joints. I am convinced that a May 4 day HHI stay will be doable. I am not as optimistic for like/like plat exchanges. Waiohai for ski week etc!!!

I'm not sure you're going to like your choices with the 3 BR as much as you might think but time will tell. I would assume you could convert some but not all but the question is what is the best option. IF they go to a trust system with a base fee then so much per point on top of that, you'll want all of your weeks in one points basket from a fee standpoint. Even more so for those that only own Marriott as there might be in II membership included. My view on such a situation is you'll have more flexibility from a use standpoint sat a potentially higher cost. I'm actually more interested in figuring out how any such points system will interact with II than anything else.

 

[DanCali]

I think at the end of the day I am going to be a converter.

Whoa... you haven't even seen the program rules yet. At least let the Marriott salespeople work for their commission.

For what it's worth, Starwood has been a points program almost from the very beginning. But most resale owners (unless they own at one of the 5 mandatory resorts) are forced to exchange via II. On top of that, Starwood controls the weeks that go into II (reservations are canceled, Starwood chooses some unreserved week to deposit, and the owner gets some average trading power of the season used) so high demand weeks are less likely to make it to II and more likely to stay within the points system. Despite all that, some tuggers report they've gotten great exchanges through II even in high season.

I don't think Marriott will do what Starwood did with respect to II. Starwood could do that because few owners were using II to begin with (they had a points system), but with Marriott owners have been depositing their reserved weeks for two decades. Changing that is likely to cause a rebellion, no matter how they spin it...

I suggest taking wait and see approach. I for one plan to ignore any incentives they give and judge the program on its own merits. Things will be much clearer after 12-18 months, once others who believe the program will work for them report their experiences. My prior is that my NCV Platinum weeks will be worth more outside the points system than inside it either for use, exchanges via II, or - if all else fails - renting out...

 

[dougp26364]

good evening!!

That is why this is so unnerving!! I also have ZERO interest in External Exchanges. I think at the end of the day I am going to be a converter. I wonder if you will be able to convert some weeks without others? It would probably make sense to convert my 3 bedroom GV weeks as I very rarely need 3 bedrooms and I can't imagine it would be difficult getting back into Orlando with ANY Internal Exchange program. Not so sure about the Hawaii weeks, might want to keep and use them (and keep home field advantage) as getting like/like exchanges may prove dicey as points make the demand for primo weeks increase (with adding/borrowing and banking) an option...

I do believe that points will be great for short stays in off season joints. I am convinced that a May 4 day HHI stay will be doable. I am not as optimistic for like/like plat exchanges. Waiohai for ski week etc!!!

No one says that, if you stay in the weeks program, that you won't have the same internal exchange benefits you've always enjoyed. Remember, just because you have no desire for external exchanges, other Marriott owners will still use their points for external exchanges and those weeks, along with all the other Marriott weeks owners, will end up in the weeks exchange program that is Interval.

It's going to take a few years to see how this really shakes out but, I know that with DRI, I can do internal exchanges but I can also see many of those resorts by going through Interval's weeks based system. With Marriott I look for it to be the same way. Marriott will have to have a contract to deposit so many weeks for exchange into Interval's weeks based exchange system or, Marriott points will have absolutely NO value with Interval. I don't see Marriott allowing that to happen.

 

[dougp26364]

Whoa... you haven't even seen the program rules yet. At least let the Marriott salespeople work for their commission......./.

Trust me, they'll still be working for their comission. While the conversion may attract more people to the table, the salesman isn't going to make much, if anything, on the conversion itself. They'll have to sell something in order to make something.

In my case, I know something about how points based sytems can work. I also know that I've looked at trust based ownerships and I haven't seen one I really think holds value for me.

So I can sit here and say something similar. If it's a straight overlay system, I'll probably be an easy convert. If it's a trust based ownership it will be a lot tougher.

 

[taffy19]

good evening!!!

Every instinct tells me that MVCI is going to deposit/place ALL of its unsold inventory in the points pool. They have to get the "word out on the street" that the points game is the "only way to go"! How else can they promote the program (as they will only be selling points)... They are gong to make it as difficult as possible (within legal limits) to internally exchange the old fashioned way...

The II external exchange option still exists for non converts and converters that deposit their points with II. About 1500 posts ago, I asked fellow Tuggers for their collective experience in EXTERNAL exchanges outside the MVCI system using II. Did not see many replies. I would guess that MVCI owners don't get great deals externally, as the other developers also have INTERNAL priority programs... Before the decision is made, would not mind having some info on this!!

This is how I understood it too. Once that date arrives, everything left over is going to be deposited in the point system.

At the Maui Ocean Club, they have fixed weeks/units and floating weeks/units. The last two times, in March, they were mainly selling the floating weeks at the MMO and MM1 and the fixed week/units were hardly even mentioned unless you brought it up.

I spoke with a couple, who had done a tour this March, and they were upset that this wasn't mentioned to them at all as they would have been interested in doing an upgrade from a floating week/unit to a fixed week/unit. It was too late for them to go back and ask about it because they were checking out and had a flight to catch.

I understand from the contract that we can change from fixed to a floating week/unit but didn't understand why they had put this clause in the contract. It may have been because they were planning the conversion long before they started building the two new towers and it may make the conversion easier to do.

What doesn't make sense to me is that I was told that no more deeded weeks were sold after June 20 but the official roll-out date of the new program would be sometime in the fall. What would they be doing the few months in between unless they are trying to convert the current owners and put all their efforts in that. Just a thought.

I hope that we don't have to wait too much long for an announcement as all the rumors are driving me crazy.

 

[m61376]

What doesn't make sense to me is that I was told that no more deeded weeks were sold after June 20 but the official roll-out date of the new program would be sometime in the fall. What would they be doing the few months in between unless they are trying to convert the current owners and put all their efforts in that. Just a thought.

I hope that we don't have to wait too much long for an announcement as all the rumors are driving me crazy.

If anything, I would think they'd begin selling points immediately and wait to try to convert current owners until they get the ball rolling. I can't imagine they'd give up the thousands of potential customers who are summer travelers.

 

[taffy19]

Me not either but that is what someone told me. We will just have to wait and see. What you wrote makes more sense.

PS. I wonder now if I understood him wrong and that is what he meant. I don't really know but something is rolling out in the fall?

 

[jin]

The split inventory pools really shouldn't be an issue unless Marriott does away with the II priority. If a deeded owner deposits for exchange they will be competing only against other deeded owners for exchange. Those points owners can only trade for Marriott weeks within an internal system. If they deposit their week, it goes in to II and the end sum is still the same. The problem would happen if Marriott uses all unsold inventory for a points system. They could do this but they will end up with a lot of empty units as there wouldn't be enough people to book in to those weeks. They will have no choice but to cough those weeks up to II to unload.

My main concern with split inventory is whether Marriott gets PREFERENCE in the points program for reserving the best weeks in each season. Pete

 

[taffy19]

The split inventory pools really shouldn't be an issue unless Marriott does away with the II priority. If a deeded owner deposits for exchange they will be competing only against other deeded owners for exchange. Those points owners can only trade for Marriott weeks within an internal system. If they deposit their week, it goes in to II and the end sum is still the same. The problem would happen if Marriott uses all unsold inventory for a points system. They could do this but they will end up with a lot of empty units as there wouldn't be enough people to book in to those weeks. They will have no choice but to cough those weeks up to II to unload.

Don't you believe that some of these units aren't going to be occupied by the people who trade in their MRPs for a condo at one of the resorts rather than staying in a hotel room if the two systems are going to be combined which I believe they are?

 

[PerryM]

Pork and beans now being served by Marriott...

A good friend of mine, yes I have one, called Marriott Reservations yesterday and just asked the rep about the new Points system. The rep was impressed that my friend knew of the new system but could not comment and indicated that they were fully trained on the new system.

My friend, and he's not one of my imaginary friends either, told the rep that he just wanted to call in, year after year, and reserve his weeks at the Marriott where he owns in the seasons he owns - the rep said that he would be still able to do this.

Oh joy...

P.S.
This week should be fun since rumors like this should now be oozing from Marriott's big mouth. Come on Marriott for 4 years you've been dying to spill the beans - well spill away. Those beans will go good with all the pork you timeshare developers ooze too...

 

[dougp26364]

A good friend of mine, yes I have one, called Marriott Reservations yesterday and just asked the rep about the new Points system. The rep was impressed that my friend knew of the new system but could not comment and indicated that they were fully trained on the new system.

My friend, yes and he's not one of my imaginary friends, told the rep that he just wanted to call in, year after year, and reserve his weeks at the Marriott where he owns in the seasons he owns - the rep said that he would be still able to do this.

Oh joy...

So some people have been worried for nothing then?

 

[PerryM]

This is all boring...

So some people have been worried for nothing then?

Not at all - as many have been droning away here say - "they can't take that fundamental ability away from us".

Anything else is at the whim of the developer apparently.

That would be now and in the future.

So unlike buying a condo, where the rules are grounded in reality, timeshares are basically just whims of corporations that get bored easily.

I don't think Marriott realizes that the dreams and hopes they sold didn't get boring to the owners but to Marriott's stockholders. Hopefully Marriott will get a taste of what it means to screw around with all those dreams they sold for 20+ years especially in this climate where the very existence of our way of life is now in doubt.

 

[PerryM]

Marriott - are you insane?

Gold is an excellent barometer of what in the world is going on with the world.

As a general rule the more uncertain, afraid, scared out of our minds, we become the higher the price of gold.

Well Marriott what does this tell you?

This is the spot price of gold for about as long as you've been hawking timeshares.​

This tells me one thing - the world is scared out of its mind.

Or, the world is really worried about your timeshares...

 

[dougp26364]

Not at all - as many have been droning away here say - "they can't take that fundamental ability away from us".

Anything else is at the whim of the developer apparently.

That would be now and in the future.

So unlike buying a condo, where the rules are grounded in reality, timeshares are basically just whims of corporations that get bored easily.

I don't think Marriott realizes that the dreams and hopes they sold didn't get boring to the owners but to Marriott's stockholders. Hopefully Marriott will get a taste of what it means to screw around with all those dreams they sold for 20+ years especially in this climate where the very existence of our way of life is now in doubt.

Spoken like someone who would be better off renting than owning.

 

[PerryM]

What's worse than 1929 why 2011 of course...

Spoken like someone who would be better off renting than owning.

I'm wondering if timeshares haven't peaked for the foreseeable future.

I guess I read things that most folks don't - like a leading economist predicting the total implosion of the US economy in 2011. Here's the actual WSJ article.

Me, I'm just looking at what's happening around us and thinking Marriott could not have picked a worse time to chuck weeks and try something else. Even 1929 - 1933 sounds tame compared to the mess the world has gotten itself into.

You know Marriott, I was just kidding about the gold chart and folks not liking your timeshare weeks and want to move to points - it was just a joke.....

 

[dougp26364]

I'm wondering if timeshares haven't peaked for the foreseeable future.

I guess I read things that most folks don't - like a leading economist predicting the total implosion of the US economy in 2011. Here's the actual WSJ article.

Me, I'm just looking at what's happening around us and thinking Marriott could not have picked a worse time to chuck weeks and try something else. Even 1929 - 1933 sounds tame compared to the mess the world has gotten itself into.

You know Marriott, I was just kidding about the gold chart and folks not liking your timeshare weeks and want to move to points - it was just a joke.....

I stopped listening to economic forcasts years ago. When it's good, it's easy. When it's bad it's all doom and gloom. The past might be a barometer but it's not always a good method for prediction. Besides, the Myan's have predicted that the world will end Dec. 21, 2012. If worse were to come to worse I think I've got enough in the bank to make it until then.

As for Marriott's timing, I think it's just the opposite. There's no better time to introduce a new system than now. It may give sales a needed spark. If nothing else it's going to get current owners onto the sales floor without the necessary bribe. It gives sales staff a new angle and current owners another reason to buy additional vacation time.

I guess I'm more of a glass half full sort of person where you're more the glass is empty and rivers run dry type.

 

[PerryM]

Can companies ask for "Do overs"?

I stopped listening to economic forcasts years ago. When it's good, it's easy. When it's bad it's all doom and gloom. The past might be a barometer but it's not always a good method for prediction.

As for Marriott's timing, I think it's just the opposite. There's no better time to introduce a new system than now. It may give sales a needed spark. If nothing else it's going to get current owners onto the sales floor without the necessary bribe. It gives sales staff a new angle and current owners another reason to buy additional vacation time.

I guess I'm more of a glass half full sort of person where you're more the glass is empty and rivers run dry type.

If the new system was just a "floating exchange system" that floated above the 20+ year old week based systems that would not be bad.

But if Marriott heads down the trust based Points system and the economy falls apart in a year they can't ask for a "do over", they are betting MVCI on this and putting 400,000 owners at risk.

Once you convert your week to Points in a trust you climb in bed with Marriott and your enjoyment of your timeshare is directly linked to their health.

At Summit Watch, Marriott could go belly up and we would find someone else to clean the toilets.

Once deeds enter that deed trust its a whole different ball game where just 1-strike out means a lot of trouble for us and the other resorts.

 

[m61376]

I stopped listening to economic forcasts years ago. When it's good, it's easy. When it's bad it's all doom and gloom. The past might be a barometer but it's not always a good method for prediction. Besides, the Myan's have predicted that the world will end Dec. 21, 2012. If worse were to come to worse I think I've got enough in the bank to make it until then.

As for Marriott's timing, I think it's just the opposite. There's no better time to introduce a new system than now. It may give sales a needed spark. If nothing else it's going to get current owners onto the sales floor without the necessary bribe. It gives sales staff a new angle and current owners another reason to buy additional vacation time.

I guess I'm more of a glass half full sort of person where you're more the glass is empty and rivers run dry type.

I agree with your first paragraph and generally have the same life viewpoint as your third, but can't disagree more with your second. With all the instability that has trickled down into everyone's life- no one is immune form the economic crisis or its trickle down effects- why introduce something that will create more uncertainty? People who are barely making ends meet- or even those of us who are more fortunate but who, nevertheless, are impacted by the trickle down effects (others misfortunes translate into a smaller client base. regardless of the industry or profession) are going to be less likely to increase discretionary expenditures. Instead of being a purchase enticement I think in these time having one's arm twisted is apt to be met with resentment.

When you visit your resorts, do you get the sense that people are traveling like they used to? I know I don't. Neighboring hotels are crying for business and restaurants, once reservations only, are half empty at times. Timeshares are still full, because they are largely prepaid vacations (and the MF's are obligatory anyway) but take-out and grilling is clearly more prevalent. Last year there was an interesting article in one of the Hawaii papers- even unemployed owners were visiting because their trip had already been paid for (including airfare pre-purchased) so they might as well be unemployed in Hawaii- but they were cutting back on their vacation spending wherever possible.

So they may visit the sales office to get updates, but reaching for their checkbooks is a whole different matter.

 

[dougp26364]

I agree with your first paragraph and generally have the same life viewpoint as your third, but can't disagree more with your second. With all the instability that has trickled down into everyone's life- no one is immune form the economic crisis or its trickle down effects- why introduce something that will create more uncertainty? People who are barely making ends meet- or even those of us who are more fortunate but who, nevertheless, are impacted by the trickle down effects (others misfortunes translate into a smaller client base. regardless of the industry or profession) are going to be less likely to increase discretionary expenditures. Instead of being a purchase enticement I think in these time having one's arm twisted is apt to be met with resentment.

When you visit your resorts, do you get the sense that people are traveling like they used to? I know I don't. Neighboring hotels are crying for business and restaurants, once reservations only, are half empty at times. Timeshares are still full, because they are largely prepaid vacations (and the MF's are obligatory anyway) but take-out and grilling is clearly more prevalent. Last year there was an interesting article in one of the Hawaii papers- even unemployed owners were visiting because their trip had already been paid for (including airfare pre-purchased) so they might as well be unemployed in Hawaii- but they were cutting back on their vacation spending wherever possible.

So they may visit the sales office to get updates, but reaching for their checkbooks is a whole different matter.

My first real job was in sales back in 1981 when the economy was in a slump. I believe unemployment was around 10%. The district that led sales that year was in PA where the steel industry had taken a major hit and unemployment was closer to 30%. When they asked the district manager how they led the company that year he said it was simple, they concentrated their efforts on the 70% that were still working.

If you wait until the economy turns around, the economy will never turn around. Sometimes one has to take the bull by the horns and go for it. If sales are slumping, take another path. Marriott is taking another path. In sales, it pays to never make the mistake of assuming everyone isn't spending money. That's when your business fails.

In the end, it doesn't matter what any of us might think. Marriott has choosen this time to go ahead with their plan. Considering their track record for running a business, something tells me they have more on the ball than the average TUG poster.

 

[PerryM]

Warning: slow down - speeders will be fined

My first real job was in sales back in 1981 when the economy was in a slump. I believe unemployment was around 10%. The district that led sales that year was in PA where the steel industry had taken a major hit and unemployment was closer to 30%. When they asked the district manager how they led the company that year he said it was simple, they concentrated their efforts on the 70% that were still working.

If you wait until the economy turns around, the economy will never turn around. Sometimes one has to take the bull by the horns and go for it. If sales are slumping, take another path. Marriott is taking another path. In sales, it pays to never make the mistake of assuming everyone isn't spending money. That's when your business fails.

But Marriott wants to drag 400,000 families down another path with it - and demand WE pay for the brand new path.

This is like driving past one of those road construction sites, with the huge government signs on the side of the highway, telling that you that you paid for this road.

I don't want to get crushed by one of those beeping front-end loaders backing up....

Marriott has taken it upon themselves to intertwine their very survival with our deeded timeshare ownership - I don't like the idea.

 

[scrapngen]

I agree with your first paragraph and generally have the same life viewpoint as your third, but can't disagree more with your second. With all the instability that has trickled down into everyone's life- no one is immune form the economic crisis or its trickle down effects- why introduce something that will create more uncertainty? People who are barely making ends meet- or even those of us who are more fortunate but who, nevertheless, are impacted by the trickle down effects (others misfortunes translate into a smaller client base. regardless of the industry or profession) are going to be less likely to increase discretionary expenditures. Instead of being a purchase enticement I think in these time having one's arm twisted is apt to be met with resentment.

When you visit your resorts, do you get the sense that people are traveling like they used to? I know I don't. Neighboring hotels are crying for business and restaurants, once reservations only, are half empty at times. Timeshares are still full, because they are largely prepaid vacations (and the MF's are obligatory anyway) but take-out and grilling is clearly more prevalent. Last year there was an interesting article in one of the Hawaii papers- even unemployed owners were visiting because their trip had already been paid for (including airfare pre-purchased) so they might as well be unemployed in Hawaii- but they were cutting back on their vacation spending wherever possible.

So they may visit the sales office to get updates, but reaching for their checkbooks is a whole different matter.

REgarding your second paragraph, I take a different view of what/why Marriott is changing the game. People aren't able to do what they used to. Travel for a week at a time to exotic locations. Having the flexibility of shorter (read less costly) trips, or getting a better exchange that is more in line with your high MF's might be very desirable to those who can't travel the same way they used to. While many on this board will spend time looking at the ramifications, there will be plenty of current TS owners who will jump at the chance to better utilize what they own, without looking at the bigger picture in depth. They just want to continue taking great vacations, and if it looks like the choices are even better or updated to look like some of the other systems that people have wanted, but didn't like the location options, then they'll probably love it. So it seems like a smart time for Marriott to target their primary sales base with a more flexible system. I am not a saleperson, but can see this approach working to get a lot of sales.

 

[hipslo]

Besides, the Myan's have predicted that the world will end Dec. 21, 2012.

I thought it was June 16, 2010.

 

[Dean]

I agree with your first paragraph and generally have the same life viewpoint as your third, but can't disagree more with your second. With all the instability that has trickled down into everyone's life- no one is immune form the economic crisis or its trickle down effects- why introduce something that will create more uncertainty? People who are barely making ends meet- or even those of us who are more fortunate but who, nevertheless, are impacted by the trickle down effects (others misfortunes translate into a smaller client base. regardless of the industry or profession) are going to be less likely to increase discretionary expenditures. Instead of being a purchase enticement I think in these time having one's arm twisted is apt to be met with resentment.

When you visit your resorts, do you get the sense that people are traveling like they used to? I know I don't. Neighboring hotels are crying for business and restaurants, once reservations only, are half empty at times. Timeshares are still full, because they are largely prepaid vacations (and the MF's are obligatory anyway) but take-out and grilling is clearly more prevalent. Last year there was an interesting article in one of the Hawaii papers- even unemployed owners were visiting because their trip had already been paid for (including airfare pre-purchased) so they might as well be unemployed in Hawaii- but they were cutting back on their vacation spending wherever possible.

So they may visit the sales office to get updates, but reaching for their checkbooks is a whole different matter.

Only time will tell whether this is a good time to make changes. In general you do best when you do things different than what or when others are doing so. I think this change has long been in the works but the economy has give them the opportunity to make the change. Sales are in the toilet, what better time to make this change if you were going to make it, than now. You're losing far less on the initiation and training now than at any other time no matter how you look at it. Less people to train, a more streamlined system, fewer lost sales during the process, etc. I doubt they're expecting it to turn around completely due to a points system. I'm sure if they are to break even now but position themselves better as the economy changes, they'll be thrilled with the process. It also gives them the opportunity to essentially sell existing weeks that are lower demand like they are higher demand because the points are more flexible than a fixed or seasonal floating week. I know this is one of the problems in some people's eyes but it is a cardinal feature of points system.