New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought

[Rolltydr]

Harvard University study says testing needs to triple before U.S. can reopen.

Coronavirus Testing Needs to Triple Before the U.S. Can Reopen, Experts Say (Published 2020)

As some governors look to ease coronavirus restrictions, public health experts say the country needs at least half a million tests per day to safely reopen.

www.nytimes.com

“We need to switch from saying to people, ‘if you have mild symptoms, if you’re not feeling super sick, don’t come and stay at home,’ to ‘if you have any symptoms, you need to come in to get tested right away,’ ”

 

[Cornell]

@heathpack I, too, noticed that about their recruitment sample. It said that they weighted the data, and of course, we don't have the level of detail in their weight scheme. Thank you for your comments -- super, super helpful & informative.

 

[heathpack]

@heathpack I, too, noticed that about their recruitment sample. It said that they weighted the data, and of course, we don't have the level of detail in their weight scheme. Thank you for your comments -- super, super helpful & informative.

Well they have the data and should be able to report results for various subgroups:
Entire study population
Subgroup who report no previous COVID symptoms
Subgroup who report previous COVID symptoms with data from other household member excluded

The problem is the various subgroups are going to get too small, increasing the likelihood that the results do not achieve statistical significance

 

[Talent312]

Harvard University study says testing needs to triple before U.S. can reopen.

That ain't gonna happen, and peep have just about reached their limit of the shut-down.

Gov'nors will be under intense pressure to loosen the reigns. So, what's the reality?
The virus will stick around. Some people will get sick, some will die, and some won't.
.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

@heathpack Thanks for your helpful response. Sample bias was the first thing that came to mind when I read this because who would volunteer for such a study unless you thought you may have been sick? We already know that people who wanted testing couldn't get it unless they were really sick. This may only confirm for that segment of the population.

Lastly, although I read the WSJ news pages regularly and find them well sourced, the WSJ opinion pages are full of cherry picking in support of confirmation bias or a political agenda so find many of those opinion pieces lacking credibility.

Bottom line: I hope this piece is true so we can get back to normal but too early to bet on it.

 

[Bill4728]

The big thing here is this is the "Antibody Test" IF these tests (antibody tests) are accurate (and it is a big IF) and there is a much higher rate of infection / recovery in the general public. that means those many people are not likely to get sick OR spread the virus. They no longer need to isolate themselves.

Antibody tests for other diseases start to be positive about 1-4 weeks after you are infected. So if covid follows the same way, if you were sick a week ago the test will likely not show anything yet. BUT in a few more weeks ??

 

[WVBaker]

I think there is some sort of money grab also with this
If you listen or read various reports on deaths there are many that say the person died from like or from corona symptoms
Not 100% from the virus but “ symptoms “
To me I read that as if I had a cough from a cold. Is that a corona symptom?

I’m betting it is if it blows up the hype or there’s a money grab

A person died recently that had been fighting cancer for 10 years and not doing well at all

Cause of death? Corona

The question remains, how can we make a final determination of a cause of death when in fact, there was never a complete and thorough autopsy done.

Though funeral directors are responsible for filing the certificate with the state, physicians are responsible for completing the medical portion of the certificate. Medical examiners or coroners are responsible for investigating and certifying the cause of any death that is unexpected, unexplained, or resulting from injury, poisoning, or a public health threat.


Just one study:

Accuracy of cause of death determination without forensic autopsy examination.

"Medical examiners and coroners commonly determine cause and manner of death without an autopsy examination. Some death certificates generated in this way may not state the correct cause and manner of death."

"The actual causes of death demonstrated a large breadth of cardiovascular and noncardiovascular disease processes, even though ischemic heart disease accounted for 62% of deaths. The presumed cause of death was completely wrong in 28% of cases. A nonnatural manner of death was present in 3% of cases. This study demonstrates that experienced forensic pathologists may generate erroneous death certificates for cases that are not autopsied."

Accuracy of cause of death determination without forensic autopsy examination - PubMed

Medical examiners and coroners commonly determine cause and manner of death without an autopsy examination. Some death certificates generated in this way may not state the correct cause and manner of death. From the case files of the Department of Forensic Medicine in Sydney, Australia, the...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Point being, the rate of deaths attributed solely to Covid-19 may in fact, and more than likely is, simply wrong.

 

[heathpack]

@heathpack Thanks for your helpful response. Sample bias was the first thing that came to mind when I read this because who would volunteer for such a study unless you thought you may have been sick? We already know that people who wanted testing couldn't get it unless they were really sick. This may only confirm for that segment of the population.

Lastly, although I read the WSJ news pages regularly and find them well sourced, the WSJ opinion pages are full of cherry picking in support of confirmation bias or a political agenda so find many of those opinion pieces lacking in credibility.

I think there’s a real likelihood that participants in this study were more likely to have been exposed to coronavirus than the general population. When I think about it for me personally, I would LOVE to learn I’d been exposed and have protective antibody. It would make my life so much easier at work, I could do things more quickly and efficiently and also protect unexposed staff and colleagues from exposure. I could go to the grocery store with impunity. If my mother gets sick, I can fly to NY and help her out.

But I’ve had no symptoms that would make me wonder if I’d been exposed.

So. If I could have participated in this study, would I have? It depends. If I had to drive 90 min round trip back and forth to Long Beach (say) to be tested and the testing was only available on a weekday that I’m working? No. If it was available on a weekend? Maybe but probably not, it wouldn’t be worth my time investment for what seems to me like a small chance I’ve been infected and would get helpful info from the results. But if the test was available a mile from my house, and on a weekend day? Yeah I’d do it.

Contrast that with what I would do if I thought I was likely exposed, based on previous or current COVID symptoms, known exposure to a COVID patient, working in a hospital etc- I’d for sure have participated in that study, because my being antibody positive feels likely to me and having the info would so so useful.

So my guess is that this study did *not* look at a random sample of Santa Clara county’s population, but instead they looked at 1. People who thought they might test positive and 2. People living physically close to sample collection locations. Extrapolating those results too widely could result in erroneous conclusions as to seroprevalence in the county as a whole.

 

[Pathways]

Point being, the rate of deaths attributed solely to Covid-19 may in fact, and more than likely is, simply wrong

Well said. Anytime there are taxpayer dollars being spent, any number that can be 'adjusted' to ultimately support more $$ coming will be adjusted in that favor. Hence, our elected officials: low numbers so they can claim credit. Everyone under that level, the higher the number, the more aid.

 

["Roger"]

Two further studies to try to determine how wide spread the infection is ...

NIH study

UC Berkeley study

To be honest, I am a bit surprised that both studies will involve a degree of self selection (people volunteer to be part of the study). I am sure that both the NIH and the UC Berkeley will try to control how self selection influences the results by having those actually admitted into the studies be as representative of the population as possible. (Ethnic groups will be represented in the proper proportions, smokers v. non-smokers, those living in more densely populated housing v. single family houses, etc.). The two problems are that you can only control for so many factors, and, there could be some unknown third factor that the investigators fail to consider. I don't want to suggest that these studies will be useless. They should be helpful. Conclusive? No.

 

[Pathways]

It may not be as deadly as some say, but it still kills. Are you ready to go out and play with it, thinking you won't get hurt?

I personally would have zero concerns about going back to my previous life... work, gym, the whole deal.

Yup, until that day when you start gasping for breath because IT GOT YOU! Having ZERO concern is stupid. Having just been released from the hospital, I say PAY ATTENTION. Sure, the odds are slim, but it doesn't mean to let down all your guard, not just yet, not by a long shot.

It's not having zero concern about the virus itself. It's weighing all the factors and reaching a well thought out decision. At that point, acting on that should give you zero concern because you are ready to face whatever challenge may present itself.

My DW and I are in the higher risk group due to our age and careers. We believed the experts early on that say eventually we all will be exposed. Therefore, we never changed our basic habits, Still eat out every other day. (Required to take it home now). Frequently at the grocery and home improvement stores. Still go on drives and visit places. Family all came over for Easter - no pressure, their choice. I just said the food will be on the table if they want to come.

Things I have changed: Wash my hands more. Mask worn at my work. We updated our will and I talked more the the person who would handle my affairs when gone. Made it clear to all if a choice needs to be made, I would prefer no ventilator. Again, based on the current published outcomes from those placed on a vent.

I know the statistics say if/when I contract the virus I will probably never even know it, or mild symptoms. But I wanted to plan for worst case basis, which then allows me to move forward with zero concerns.

 

[caribbeanqueen]

I do not think being excited about positive information on less deaths than anticipated makes one uncaring about those who have passed. That is a pretty nasty statement.
I live in RI. Most who have died have been in nursing homes. We are told many deaths are Corona virus RELATED. That means they had another underlying disease and did not necessarily pass exclusively from Coronavirus but the states will get more aid depending on the amount of deaths due to the virus because it shows they need more supplies to help keep up with the deaths. No doubt about it. It is a money maker for the states.

On another note I heard a doctor on one of the news shows say whatever amount of people are testing positive, you can at least triple that amount of people who have the antibodies. I think once testing is completed the numbers of those who have had it will be staggering. JMO

 

[CPNY]

Bottom line is we many of us will get this virus no matter what. The end game- whether social distancing or using herd immunity- will be the same. The one and only reason we have been in lock down is not to overwhelm the hospitals.

Now that it has been shown that in many states the hospitals have not been overwhelmed and the numbers are low it is time for people to be free again. We cannot wait around for 2 years for a vaccine that MIGHT be developed. Remember they tried for a vaccine for the last SARS (H1N1) and never were able to develop one.

They actually stopped research on developing it because SARS never really made it out of China. Had they continued with the research to find it, we may have been in a much different situation than we are now.

 

[caribbeanqueen]

Roger I emailed the NIH study hoping my husband and I could be participants in it. We were both very sick after coming off a Princess Cruise late December. The quicker we can get the antibody testing done the quicker we can get people back to work. Those who do not have the antibodies and have compromised immune systems can still self isolate till the vaccine is ready or the virus leaves.

 

[Pathways]

We need to switch from saying to people, ‘if you have mild symptoms, if you’re not feeling super sick, don’t come and stay at home,’ to ‘if you have any symptoms, you need to come in to get tested right away,’ ”

That's a start but won't help a lot. A facility close me had multiple deaths. The experts wanted to move a group of 25 who had been separated for weeks with no symptoms to another facility. The local people protested to stop the move. Finally, the 'experts' thought if they tested the 25 then they might stop the protests so they could do what they wanted. That is until 21 of the 25 tested positive. None of the group had shown ANY symptoms. They had been individually isolated, temp checked everyday, and so on.

And given how easy this spreads, everyone would need to be tested frequently on an ongoing basis.

 

[Rolltydr]

That's a start but won't help a lot. A facility close me had multiple deaths. The experts wanted to move a group of 25 who had been separated for weeks with no symptoms to another facility. The local people protested to stop the move. Finally, the 'experts' thought if they tested the 25 then they might stop the protests so they could do what they wanted. That is until 21 of the 25 tested positive. None of the group had shown ANY symptoms. They had been individually isolated, temp checked everyday, and so on.

And given how easy this spreads, everyone would need to be tested frequently on an ongoing basis.

I think their point was that is where we need to be with testing before we even start to open back up. I agree with you about the ongoing needs even after we reach that point. This is just one study I found interesting. I’m not saying it’s 100% right or wrong, just that it is a study from Harvard that I think has some validity.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

One thing that I have not heard in the news:

If someone tests positive for Covid-19 with no symptoms, does that mean that they are in the early stages and will become sick a week later? or are these people infected and will recover never showing symptoms?

 

[Cornell]

I do not think being excited about positive information on less deaths than anticipated makes one uncaring about those who have passed. That is a pretty nasty statement.
I live in RI. Most who have died have been in nursing homes. We are told many deaths are Corona virus RELATED. That means they had another underlying disease and did not necessarily pass exclusively from Coronavirus but the states will get more aid depending on the amount of deaths due to the virus because it shows they need more supplies to help keep up with the deaths. No doubt about it. It is a money maker for the states.

On another note I heard a doctor on one of the news shows say whatever amount of people are testing positive, you can at least triple that amount of people who have the antibodies. I think once testing is completed the numbers of those who have had it will be staggering. JMO

Yeah, I get a little tired of the response "You obviously don't care about life" or "You are so selfish in your thinking" when I express my opinion that I'm not panicked about this.

 

[MrockStar]

My "real life" story of dealing with television news. This was from about 40 years ago, when I was working in the drinking water supply program of the California Department of Health Services. I was the lead technical person in the program related to issues of contamination of groundwater with agricultural chemicals, and the Department public affairs office had identified me as a designated background information contact for news agencies. Which meant that while I wasn't authorized to speak for the department, I was designated to provide technical information and background to news agencies.

We had been working for several months on a major issue, and the Sacramento Bureau office for one major television network affiliates in San Francisco started tracking the story. I spent a significant amount of time over two to three weeks working with the person who was developing the story, as well as the Sacramento Bureau Chief who was providing oversight. I gave them information and background, answered questions, and asked followup questions to satisfy myself that they had a good grasp of the information that was provided, what it meant, and being sure that all of their questions had been addressed. I received much thanks from them, and they let me know they were going to run the story on their 5 pm Friday new show when it was ready to go.

So I made sure to turn in, and in one key part of the story they made a bald-faced lie. I knew it was a lie because we had covered that ground, they had all of the backup information, we talked about the issue, etc. There was simply no doubt as to the facts of the situation.

The following Monday I was back in Sacramento (my main office was in Berkeley), and I contacted the Bureau Chief to talk about the story. I told him that what they broadcast wasn't true, and that they knew it wasn't true.

His response - "yeah - it wasn't true. But the way we presented it made a better story." This is from the mouth of the Sacramento Bureau Chief for the San Francisco network affiliate of one of the "Big Three" national networks (pre-Fox). And the fact that they broadcast a story that they knew was factually incorrect was of no concern because the "story" was more important than the facts.

Since then I have been very cynical of anything that is produced by any media outlet of any persuasion. They all exist to sell eyeballs, and accuracy and objectivity is secondary to viewership or clicks.

True Dat.

 

[MrockStar]

BS. Just because you may be afraid doesn't make others who aren't afraid stupid. I too will have no worries about going back to doing things the way I used to once allowed. If it gets me, it gets me. Gotta go one day or another for whatever reason and I'm not going to live my life in fear of what may get me. You've got just a good a chance of a drunk driver taking you out as this virus.

Or a very large Deer, there everywhere when I drive home every night at 0100 am. Yikes !!!

 

[DaveNV]

I wanted to point out that comparing this pandemic to the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 is an uneven mix, at best. That pandemic ran its course over three years, with waves of infection coming and going. We have the full scope of how that pandemic played out. The Covid-19 pandemic has only been on the radar for a few months. I think it's too soon to say whether this one is as bad as that one was. Also, we are doing things differently this time around (so far) to encourage people to try and avoid contagion. In 1918, a lot of people were infected before they knew what was going on, and things spread faster due to the differences in how it was handled. I don't think the total effect of current infections is known yet. With this current virus, even though it all started in one place, it spread worldwide within just a few months. (I think I read recently where it is now in 181 countries around the world.)

In my state, the first to have diagnosed infections in the USA, and one of the first to go into lockdown, we are still seeing new infections every day. We now have diagnosed cases in all but one county here. The number of cases keeps climbing, likely because there is more widespread testing. No telling how many have or had it, without being tested. But even without knowing how many actual cases there are, the fatality rate (for our population) is pretty staggering. We saw our first diagnosed case in January. The first fatality was near the end of February. As of March 13, we'd had 37 fatalities. As of April 16, it had climbed to 603. That's an increase of nearly 1600% in just 34 days. If the speed of infection was truly known, if social distancing was truly working, and if people were truly staying isolated, those numbers shouldn't be increasing like that. I'd expect after a few weeks the new case numbers should be pretty flat. But they're not. (Somebody educate me here - am I missing something?)

So while I'm all for life getting back to normal ASAP, I think it's foolish to move too quickly on this. The Florida Governor who reopened the beach yesterday is courting disaster, I think.

Dave

 

[DaveNV]

I think there is some sort of money grab also with this
If you listen or read various reports on deaths there are many that say the person died from like or from corona symptoms
Not 100% from the virus but “ symptoms “
To me I read that as if I had a cough from a cold. Is that a corona symptom?

I’m betting it is if it blows up the hype or there’s a money grab

A person died recently that had been fighting cancer for 10 years and not doing well at all

Cause of death? Corona

Just like with HIV, it isn't the virus that kills you. It's the things the virus causes (like pneumonia) that will do it. In your example, if the cancer patient hadn't contracted Covid-19, they might still be alive. So yes, in this case, it wasn't cancer that killed them, it was Covid-19.

Dave

 

[WVBaker]

Just like with HIV, it isn't the virus that kills you. It's the things the virus causes (like pneumonia) that will do it. In your example, if the cancer patient hadn't contracted Covid-19, they might still be alive. So yes, in this case, it wasn't cancer that killed them, it was Covid-19.

Dave

And just who is to say that?

 

[PrairieGirl]

Remember they tried for a vaccine for the last SARS (H1N1) and never were able to develop one.

A small point of correction. In your post it appears that you believe that the SARS virus and H1N1 (an influenza virus) are the same thing. I do not think that is correct and believe that they are each a different virus. And while there may be no vaccine for the SARS virus that hit in 2003 (and it probably has some numbers associated with it), there is a most certainly a vaccine for the H1N1 influenza virus. I know, because I have had it.

 

[MrockStar]

Today "The Wall Street Journal, VW to Reopen Europe Plants With List of New Safety Rules". " Berlin--Volkswagen AG will restart car plants across Europe next week, offering a pandemic-era blueprint for other global manufactures that will alter workers daily lives and, at least temporarily, relegate productivity to the back seat." Finally some well thought out best safety practices that balance workers protection and the need to provide for German workers /family's much needed paydays to feed & pay the rent and provide productive dignity and hope. I sure hope governor D- Whitwere in MI and The Big 3 Detroit automakers are considering this when the Data in MI supports reopening our State economy again. Hope springs eternal.