New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought

[DaveNV]

And just who is to say that?

As I interpreted it, the doctor said it. Extrapolating here: The patient had cancer and was (presumably) being treated for it. The patient contracted Covid-19, and dies. If they hadn't contracted it, they might still be alive. But they're not. If the doctor said cause of death was Covid-19, there was probably good reason.

Dave

 

[queenofthehive]

And just who is to say that?

Influenza 101

 

[Pathways]

But even without knowing how many actual cases there are, the fatality rate (for our population) is pretty staggering. We saw our first diagnosed case in January. The first fatality was near the end of February. As of March 13, we'd had 37 fatalities. As of April 16, it had climbed to 603. That's an increase of nearly 1600% in just 34 days. If the speed of infection was truly known, if social distancing was truly working, and if people were truly staying isolated, those numbers shouldn't be increasing like that. I'd expect after a few weeks the new case numbers should be pretty flat. But they're not. (Somebody educate me here - am I missing something?)

So while I'm all for life getting back to normal ASAP, I think it's foolish to move too quickly on this. The Florida Governor who reopened the beach yesterday is courting disaster, I think.

I assume you mean the increase in fatalities, not the 'fatality rate'? The statistical fatality rate (% of pop with the virus dying) is decreasing quickly everywhere as they begin more testing and see the vast numbers who have actually had it but never knew it.

I agree completely with you about the whole 'social distancing thing' not working. This virus is too easily spread and lives too long on pretty much all surfaces to reduce this to nothing.

That is why I say open things up now. ( location dependent- not everywhere) As long as our health care system is not overwhelmed, let's go!. Those who feel too at risk to be out, they can continue the isolation, certainly no one is required to be out.

The millions who in a few weeks will be struggling for basic food and shelter will not care who is at risk. And when your kids are hungry and the family is desperate, I doubt those folks will be concerned about 'those at risk' or those who have passed on.

I know two states with over $1B in reserves (and were adding to the reserve fund every month) who have already stated they will blow through those reserves by August. After that (since they MUST balance their budget), financial cuts to ALL levels of government (including education) will be hard and fast. This economy MUST open up now to try and mitigate these issues, or there may be unrest we don't want to envision.

 

[WVBaker]

As I interpreted it, the doctor said it. Extrapolating here: The patient had cancer and was (presumably) being treated for it. The patient contracted Covid-19, and dies. If they hadn't contracted it, they might still be alive. But they're not. If the doctor said cause of death was Covid-19, there was probably good reason.

Dave

Perhaps.

 

[WinniWoman]

A small point of correction. In your post it appears that you believe that the SARS virus and H1N1 (an influenza virus) are the same thing. I do not think that is correct and believe that they are each a different virus. And while there may be no vaccine for the SARS virus that hit in 2003 (and it probably has some numbers associated with it), there is a most certainly a vaccine for the H1N1 influenza virus. I know, because I have had it.

My error. I meant the last SARS and I got it confused with H1N1. Correcting.

 

[DaveNV]

I assume you mean the increase in fatalities, not the 'fatality rate'? The statistical fatality rate (% of pop with the virus dying) is decreasing quickly everywhere as they begin more testing and see the vast numbers who have actually had it but never knew it.

You're correct. My words were my clumsy way of trying to express my thought. I was looking only at the huge increase in the number of fatalities here. The thing about the infection rates that I don't understand is that if isolation was truly flattening the curve, after a few weeks the number should be leveling out. Maybe they are, and I just don't know how to read them?

I think that also speaks to part of the frustration I see going on with everyone. Everywhere I turn there is a different statistic, a different "expert," and a different way to view the situation. People are getting sick, and some are dying. That I fully understand. People are going broke, and the situation is getting to a critical point for them. I fully understand that, too. But then I see ridiculous infighting among politicians over how resources should be used, instead of everyone pulling together to fight this. Where is the average person supposed to turn for resolution? It seems there is a swirling whirlpool of information, and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere but around in circles. Being safe is important, but there comes a point where people have to be able to live.

I just want to wake up from this.

Dave

 

[WVBaker]

You're correct. My words were my clumsy way of trying to express my thought. I was looking only at the huge increase in the number of fatalities here. The thing about the infection rates that I don't understand is that if isolation was truly flattening the curve, after a few weeks the number should be leveling out. Maybe they are, and I just don't know how to read them?

I think that also speaks to part of the frustration I see going on with everyone. Everywhere I turn there is a different statistic, a different "expert," and a different way to view the situation. People are getting sick, and some are dying. That I fully understand. People are going broke, and the situation is getting to a critical point for them. I fully understand that, too. But then I see ridiculous infighting among politicians over how resources should be used, instead of everyone pulling together to fight this. Where is the average person supposed to turn for resolution? It seems there is a swirling whirlpool of information, and it doesn't seem to be going anywhere but around in circles. Being safe is important, but there comes a point where people have to be able to live.

I just want to wake up from this.

Dave

For every expert there is an equal and opposite expert.

 

[Pathways]

The thing about the infection rates that I don't understand is that if isolation was truly flattening the curve, after a few weeks the number should be leveling out. Maybe they are, and I just don't know how to read them?

I'm not the expert, but tell me if this makes sense.

In the beginning, all we really knew were the vents and the deaths. those were hard numbers. Now as the testing (both kinds - infected/post) is ramping up we have a different set of numbers. Those numbers are increasing exponentially not specifically B/C of the virus increasing, but simply B/C we now have real testing/numbers we didn't have before. Therefore, the numbers people are still using the actual deaths as a yard stick to say things are better. The deaths are leveling off or decreasing even as the number of infected are increasing. IOW, the number of newly infected each week is probably leveling off or decreasing but B/C of the testing the numbers released show a huge increase.

 

[Pathways]

And don't forget there is an established lag time of about two weeks. So if the deaths are leveling off or decreasing, the other numbers should actually be going down.

Now once a treatment that works is introduced, all the numbers won't add up right again

 

[davidvel]

I wanted to point out that comparing this pandemic to the Spanish Flu of 1918-1920 is an uneven mix, at best. That pandemic ran its course over three years, with waves of infection coming and going. We have the full scope of how that pandemic played out. The Covid-19 pandemic has only been on the radar for a few months. I think it's too soon to say whether this one is as bad as that one was. Also, we are doing things differently this time around (so far) to encourage people to try and avoid contagion. In 1918, a lot of people were infected before they knew what was going on, and things spread faster due to the differences in how it was handled. I don't think the total effect of current infections is known yet. With this current virus, even though it all started in one place, it spread worldwide within just a few months. (I think I read recently where it is now in 181 countries around the world.)

In my state, the first to have diagnosed infections in the USA, and one of the first to go into lockdown, we are still seeing new infections every day. We now have diagnosed cases in all but one county here. The number of cases keeps climbing, likely because there is more widespread testing. No telling how many have or had it, without being tested. But even without knowing how many actual cases there are, the fatality rate (for our population) is pretty staggering. We saw our first diagnosed case in January. The first fatality was near the end of February. As of March 13, we'd had 37 fatalities. As of April 16, it had climbed to 603. That's an increase of nearly 1600% in just 34 days. If the speed of infection was truly known, if social distancing was truly working, and if people were truly staying isolated, those numbers shouldn't be increasing like that. I'd expect after a few weeks the new case numbers should be pretty flat. But they're not. (Somebody educate me here - am I missing something?)

So while I'm all for life getting back to normal ASAP, I think it's foolish to move too quickly on this. The Florida Governor who reopened the beach yesterday is courting disaster, I think.

Dave

They also didn't have modern medicine, including ICUs and ventilators back then. Any comparison is meaningless.

 

[davidvel]

A small point of correction. In your post it appears that you believe that the SARS virus and H1N1 (an influenza virus) are the same thing. I do not think that is correct and believe that they are each a different virus. And while there may be no vaccine for the SARS virus that hit in 2003 (and it probably has some numbers associated with it), there is a most certainly a vaccine for the H1N1 influenza virus. I know, because I have had it.

Correct. SARS is a coronavirus and h1n1 is an influenza virus.

 

[geekette]

I'm not the expert, but tell me if this makes sense.

In the beginning, all we really knew were the vents and the deaths. those were hard numbers. Now as the testing (both kinds - infected/post) is ramping up we have a different set of numbers. Those numbers are increasing exponentially not specifically B/C of the virus increasing, but simply B/C we now have real testing/numbers we didn't have before. Therefore, the numbers people are still using the actual deaths as a yard stick to say things are better. The deaths are leveling off or decreasing even as the number of infected are increasing. IOW, the number of newly infected each week is probably leveling off or decreasing but B/C of the testing the numbers released show a huge increase.

Yes. Number of cases is rather meaningless because we will never know the true number of cases, yet it will increase as more testing occurs.

Here, we are still only testing first responders and other essential workers. If your maybe-case is mild, you may never get tested. It's when people get worse and show up at the hospital that they may or may not get tested.

Hospitalizations, ventilations, deaths, those are the things that are more reliable. When people die in private homes or other private facilities, those deaths might not get reported. Never make it to hospitalization, ventilation, but should eventually make death statistic. So, what is attributed to being a COVIN-19 death is a meaningful decision. Anyone that was stable before it, I'd say died because of it. If I were already experiencing infection after a surgery, then got this infection to push me over the edge, well, I'm not the one to make the call. I would leave it to the ME.

More data is always better. Always.

 

[Ralph Sir Edward]

This is not a randomized, double blinded study, but interesting none the less. . .

3 French Doctors Are Using Azithromycin With Zinc to Save Lives - Gilmore Health News

Three French doctors tested a combination of azithromycin and zinc to treat hundreds of patients infected with the coronavirus.

www.gilmorehealth.com

(Personal note - I am taking zinc supplement, D3 @ 1000 ISP units, (among other vitamins) as a prophylactic dose. . .)

 

[Cornell]

@Pathways I’m witnessing an underground economy developing. People need money! I know of hairdressers, nail techs, and gym operators that are conducting business (and risking their licenses ) to try to stay alive. This phenomenon is just going to increase .

 

[DaveNV]

They also didn't have modern medicine, including ICUs and ventilators back then. Any comparison is meaningless.

Nor did they have immediate global communication like today. Different cities did things that affected other areas of the country within days. I read about soldiers returning from Europe being put on ships close together, then loaded onto trains to travel all over the place. The explosive infection rates followed. So in celebrating the end of WWI they actually brought the pandemic home with them.

Dave

 

[geoand]

Full disclosure... I did not go to Cornell.
It’s the name of the street I grew up on.

That made me laugh. Just to make sure my words are interpreted correctly YOU ARE A-OK with me

 

[Rjbeach2003]

I haven't taken the time to read every comment, so maybe what I write has already been posted. While not able to quote a study, I have read in a number of places that there are many deaths quite possibly caused by Covid 19, but not identified as such. I think it will be years before the whole period can be fully explained, ie it was worse or it was better than thought at the time.
Now what we have are the statistics available. According to the tabulation site www.worldometer.info there have been 745,335 cases resolved worldwide. 587,666 recovered, 157,669 deaths. So 79% recovered 21% death. I have been checking that website daily since I saw someone link the site here a few weeks ago. That 79/21% rate has been consistent.

If the people who the study referenced could have been tested and included then the rate would drop. But do we know that the study was sufficient, was it replicated anywhere? Those are questions that need to be answered.

Also I don't think unsupported good news is helpful, rather I like to see good news supported by facts. There are appearances of good news, individual anecdotal stories with both good and bad news. until then we need to stay the course and not grasp every straw that pops up.

 

[Pathways]

@Pathways I’m witnessing an underground economy developing. People need money! I know of hairdressers, nail techs, and gym operators that are conducting business (and risking their licenses ) to try to stay alive. This phenomenon is just going to increase .

That's funny, My wife just mentioned that to me this week. She referenced the movie 'Shampoo' (I know, wayyyy before your time) with Warren Beatty running around with his hair dryer doing peoples hair in their homes. (and other things, as I recall)

 

[CalGalTraveler]

The antibody/herd immunity argument which is the underlying premise of the OPs article, is premature because it is not proven that you cannot become reinfected and/or this lies dormant in your system and will re-emerge. We simply don't know enough about this horrible disease.

South Korea’s New Coronavirus Twist: Recovered Patients Test Positive Again

More than 160 South Koreans have tested positive a second time for the coronavirus, a development that suggests the disease may have a longer shelf life than expected.

www.wsj.com

 

[DaveNV]

For every expert there is an equal and opposite expert.

Which was precisely my point.

Dave

 

[Gypsy65]

That made me laugh. Just to make sure my words are interpreted correctly YOU ARE A-OK with me

Now we just need her 1st grade teachers name and first car and we can get her passwords changed

 

[DaveNV]

The antibody/herd immunity argument is premature because it is not proven that you cannot become reinfected and/or this lies dormant in your system and will re-emerge. We simply don't know enough about this horrible disease.

South Korea’s New Coronavirus Twist: Recovered Patients Test Positive Again

More than 160 South Koreans have tested positive a second time for the coronavirus, a development that suggests the disease may have a longer shelf life than expected.

www.wsj.com

That was a question I brought up awhile ago. My understanding is there are different mutations of this virus. What is to say if you get it once that you couldn't get it again? Just as the flu virus is different from year to year, and the flu vaccine is a best-guess from year to year, perhaps Covid-19 will follow the same path?

Dave

 

[Sugarcubesea]

Working right now, but I will toast you tomorrow on my day off be safe. Health and blessings to you and your family.

Don’t work too hard. We had to furlough a group of our hourly employees on Friday. We told them we will pay for all of their benefits till we bring them back. So I’m feeling very sad that we had to furlough them but we have no raw materials left and we’ve filled our plant and warehouse fully with the parts they had been making. All of our customers have pushed their orders to us out 160 days. So all of our business has dropped to zero. I’m thankful that I’m still employed and the President (who I report to) said the BOD approved for me to get a small bonus since I’ve been working around the clock securing financing and loans. I’m so very thankful that I work for a company that is trying to ensure we come out of this mess still standing.

 

[TravelTime]

@Pathways I’m witnessing an underground economy developing. People need money! I know of hairdressers, nail techs, and gym operators that are conducting business (and risking their licenses ) to try to stay alive. This phenomenon is just going to increase .

People are starting to protest against the SIP/SAH and shut downs. I read about one rally where the government response was “protesting is not an essential activity.” Very funny. LOL I am seeing more and more complaints about when will this end. I think in the first month, people were patient and it was all about staying home to save lives. Now going into month 2, people are exhausted and seeing the many ramifications on their own Iives and those of their children and family members. I keep hearing we could be living under some type of SIP/SAH order until there is a vaccine. That is mind boggling.

P.S. For anyone interested in the government’s response that protesting is a non-essential activity, here is an article about what happened in Raleigh. I find this extremely humorous and scary too.

UPDATED: ‘Protesting is a non-essential activity’: Raleigh police face backlash for dispersing protesters - Washington Examiner

The Raleigh Police Department in North Carolina is facing blowback after categorizing protesting as a "non-essential activity." The police department is facing scrutiny after arresting protesters in downtown Raleigh on Tuesday, asserting that such activity is in violation of the governor's...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

 

[Sugarcubesea]

Some of us are fans of yours. Well, me anyway. I find your opinions smart, spot-on, and well-considered.

Dave

I’m a fan of Cornell as well.