New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought

[Patri]

As I said, I couldn't read the entire article, it's behind a pay wall. I saw at the top where it said "Opinion". Maybe I'm just suspicious of opinion pieces.

The entire news media is opinion these days. True journalism is dead.

 

[DaveNV]

LOL! Not after this week on TUG. It's Friday afternoon.

Some of us are fans of yours. Well, me anyway. I find your opinions smart, spot-on, and well-considered.

Dave

 

[pedro47]

Tell this story/article to those family members that have loss loved ones to the coronavirus and to those cruise passengers that were on Princess & Holland America cruise ships. Plus, share this opinions will all the infected coronavirus patients around the world.

 

[geekette]

I couldn't get in to read the whole article but it looks like it's an opinion piece. And how can someone says it's not as deadly as we thought? How many deaths have there been so far?

Exactly! It has killed enough people for me to consider it Deadly. "Not As" deadly makes no difference to me.

 

[geekette]

This article is good news! Why are people so upset about good news?

Because there are already over 30000 people dead here in America. Fast. That's pretty deadly.

 

[Cornell]

@DaveNW You are very kind. Thank you for that.

 

[Talent312]

Be brave and strong.

and have a few.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Some of us are fans of yours. Well, me anyway. I find your opinions smart, spot-on, and well-considered.

Dave

I'm a fan as well. We had one tussle (my fault), and you made me think better and more clearly.

 

[geekette]

But should science and research studies stop because the results might make some people feel minimized?

Nobody said that. Nobody here said stop research. Nobody. Nobody said that.

 

[Cornell]

I'm listening to POTUS's daily presser now. They are discussing phase 1 antibody testing. As far as I'm concerned this is a big YESSSSSS!!!!!!!!

 

[MrockStar]

and have a few.

Working right now, but I will toast you tomorrow on my day off be safe. Health and blessings to you and your family.

 

[TravelTime]

Nobody said that. Nobody here said stop research. Nobody. Nobody said that.

Just do not report the research unless it says this is really deadly.

 

[geekette]

Just do not report the research unless it says this is really deadly.

Who said that? Show me.

 

[TravelTime]

Who said that? Show me.

This article has been criticized because people think it is minimizing the deaths. It is simply reporting on a study at Stanford University.

 

[TravelTime]

This is not an opinion piece.

Coronavirus: Santa Clara County has had 50 to 85 times more cases than we knew about, Stanford estimates

This startling finding suggests that between 48,000 and 81,000 people were infected in Santa Clara County by early April. The results represent the first large-scale community-based prevalence stud…

www.mercurynews.com

 

[Rolltydr]

New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought
A study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate.

Opinion | New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought

A study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate.

www.wsj.com

......New data support the skeptics’ view—a preliminary study by a Stanford team, released Friday. They conducted a seroprevalence study of Santa Clara County, Calif., on April 3 and 4. They studied a representative sample of 3,300 residents to test for the presence of antibodies in their blood that would show if they had previously been infected with the novel coronavirus.

The researchers found that the percentage of infections was indeed vastly larger than the roughly 1,000 known positive cases in the county at the time of the study. The preliminary results—the research will now undergo peer review—show that between 2.5% and 4.2% of county residents are estimated to have antibodies against the virus. That translates into 48,000 to 81,000 infections, 50 to 85 times as high as the number of known cases.

That may sound scary, but it’s great news. It suggests that the large majority of people who contract Covid-19 recover without ever knowing they were infected, and that the U.S. infection fatality rate may be more than an order of magnitude lower than authorities had assumed. Based on this seroprevalence data, the authors estimate that in Santa Clara County the true infection fatality rate is somewhere in the range of 0.12% to 0.2%—far closer to seasonal influenza than to the original, case-based estimates......

......Yet if policy makers were aware from the outset that the Covid-19 death toll would be closer to that of seasonal flu than the millions of American deaths predicted by early models dependent on inputs that now look inaccurate, would they have risked tens of millions of jobs and livelihoods? The science to support better modeling and decision making is rapidly becoming available. One hopes that it will inform better policy decisions.

COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California

Background Addressing COVID-19 is a pressing health and social concern. To date, many epidemic projections and policies addressing COVID-19 have been designed without seroprevalence data to inform epidemic parameters. We measured the seroprevalence of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in Santa Clara...

www.medrxiv.org

BS

 

[TravelTime]

BS

Why is it BS? It is a research study at a prominent university known for superb health care.

 

[Rolltydr]

I would be interested to know why people prefer to believe all the bad news about Covid. Please share.

Because we’re reading facts and data while you’re reading opinions.

 

[TravelTime]

Because we’re reading facts and data while you’re reading opinions.

I posted the link to the actual research study. I also posted a journalism article, not an opinion piece. Did you read those?

 

[Rolltydr]

New Jersey, a small state, over 3,800 deaths. We are well over souls lost on 9/11. I am all for opening up America again, as long as people keep their nose and mouth covered, wear gloves and be sanitary. But there will always be those who think the rules should not apply to them.

And I’ve never heard one person say that 9/11 wasn’t that bad. Have you?

 

[TravelTime]

And I’ve never heard one person say that 9/11 wasn’t that bad. Have you?

No one is saying covid is not that bad. The study simply says the death rate may not be as high as predicted. This is good news people!!!!

 

[VacationForever]

LOL! Not after this week on TUG. It's Friday afternoon.

Have a drink. A drink always makes one brave, strong and sometimes stupid.

 

[VacationForever]

Some of us are fans of yours. Well, me anyway. I find your opinions smart, spot-on, and well-considered.

Dave

Me too.. i.e. a fan of Cornell.

 

[Rolltydr]

Exactly! It has killed enough people for me to consider it Deadly. "Not As" deadly makes no difference to me.

What many people fail to realize, or choose to ignore, is that many of the projections were based on doing nothing. Most states finally did something in mid-late March. They closed non-essential businesses and implemented social distancing. Of course, with 50 states, the various orders from the governors were different and a handful haven’t really done anything. So, we have a hodgepodge of orders implemented at different times and will be lifted at different times. At this time, we have no proven drugs that work well to fight the virus and we will not have a vaccine for a year or more. We don’t have enough test kits or enough people trained to professionally administer tests. Some people think because it’s spring and the weather is getting warm, the virus will magically go away. There is no proof that will happen but we can hope.

Everybody wants things to get back to normal. So, with our hopes telling us one thing and the actual data telling us another, we are going to start opening businesses and putting people back to work, and going to the beach, and eating in restaurants, and going to the hair salon, and spending money, and it’s going to fix everything. Good luck with that.

I’ve never been more happy to be a retired introvert.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

1. Personally, I don't think it's ever bad to collect more data and add it to your decision making. (Of course that also means giving due consideration to the nature and quality of the information, not all information is created equally.)

2. I think it's important to change one's mind or modify one's thinking in response to improved information. Just speaking, hypothetically of course, that might lead someone to say. "OMG - I might have underestimated the threat posed by a virus." And action is taken on the basis of the new information. And then as additional information comes in, that person might trim the other direction because the new data says that things might not be as bad as the prior data indicated. Or the added information might indicate the need to take extra action. Or the extra information might just make the situation more muddied.

3. One key item is to recognize that all of us, no matter how well trained we think we are or how smart we are, have confirmation biases. The best thing that we can do is to know what our biases are and attempt to counter those biases by being more critical of information and opinions that align with our biases, and less dismissive of information and opinions that we don't agree with. And when we clash, use that as an opportunity to hone our thinking by taking the effort to at least partly remove our bias filters.