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New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought

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pedro47

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Because this study came from Stanford University one of the top research University in the United States it is an excellent paper and has merit in my book.
There are still just to many unknown factors about the coronavirus IMHO.

I just wish China would tell everyone the truth about the coronavirus.
How it really started and how many Chinese passed away from the coronavirus?
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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Because this study came from Stanford University one of the top research University in the United States it is an excellent paper and has merit in my book.
There are still just to many unknown factors about the coronavirus IMHO.
IMHO - you should not give weight to the study because it is from Stanford. Weight should be given based on the methodology, not the institution.

Full disclosure. I did my post-grad work at Stanford (Wash U St. Louis undergrad). Both excellent school. But that doesn't mean work done there doesn't need the same level of scrutiny as work completed elsewhere. Academic elitism is pernicious formof confirmation bias. The saga of Harlan Bretz is a wonderful example of academic snobbery in action.
 
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T_R_Oglodyte

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1. Personally, I don't think it's ever bad to collect more date and add it to your decision making. (Of course that also means giving due consideration to the nature and quality of the information, not all information is created equally.)

2. I think it's important to change one's mind or modify one's thinking in response to improved information. Just speaking, hypothetically of course, that might lead someone to say. "OMG - I might have underestimated the threat posed by a virus." And action is taken on the basis of the new information. And then as additional information comes in, that person might trim the other direction because the new data sayts that things might not be as bad as the prior data indicated. Or the added information might indicate the need to take extra action. Or the extra information might just make the situation more muddied.

3. One key item is to recognize that all of us, no matter how well trained we think we are or how smart we are, have confirmation biases. The best thing that we can do is to know what our biases are and attempt to counter those biases by being more critical of information and opinions that align with our biases, and less dismissive of information and opinions that we don't agree with. And when we clash, use that as an opportunity to hone our thinking by taking the effort to at least partly remove our bias filters.
I think I should add to the above -

4. When you are engaged in serious decision-making, where your decisions have serious consequences, having a decision framework is critical. You take a step back and think about the process you are going to use to make a decision. You consider the information that you need to make a decision, why that information is important, and how sensitive that information is to your decision making. And how you are going to qualify and vet that information before you work with it (and this is an area where I can attest from some sad personal experience, knowing and compensating for confirmation bias is crucial).

To relate this to the current situation, having a decision-making might alert you early on to the importance of anti-body testing, but the reality is that you don't have that information available, and you determine how to proceed without information. But if that information should start to become available, you are now ready to plug it in rationally. And most importantly, you should have already identified procedures for validating and qualifying the results.
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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Full disclosure... I did not go to Cornell.
It’s the name of the street I grew up on.
I grew up on Grand Avenue. That doesn't mean that I think I'm grand. I'm pretty sure my ex-employees would concur.
 

Cornell

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For those of you are really interested in the Stanford study that is referenced in this article, there is some detail in the Tweets from this gentlemen,

Robert VerBruggen
@RAVerBruggen

on Twitter.
He explains some of the detail of the sampling methodology.

He frequently analyzes data that forms public policy and is a really interesting guy. At least I think he is.
 

queenofthehive

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Where do you live? In New York? Here is California we have had about 1000 deaths so far and we were a state with early infections. Not good news but not as catastrophic as predicted. 300 deaths a day is a lot!
These numbers are a due to social distancing. When you open society back up you do not want to the death rate to climb like in NYC. This randomized antibody test should not give a false sense of security that all is now safe in the world. If we open up too soon some people will still be playing Russian roulette with their lives. Just because the percentage rate goes down due to more testing it does not make the virus less lethal. I also see this as a failing of not adequately testing in the beginning. If you do not test, you do not know what you are up against. You can isolate those that are positive and contain the spread. How many times have heard people that were symptomatic request for test but were denied due to their symptoms not being severe enough thus states not having adequate testing kits. I do not feel this is great news. I feel is shows a complete lack of testing and handling in the first place.
Randomized sampling of the antibody test so we can reopen society does not make logical sense. We must test everyone to see who is safe to go back into society or not. The more we test we will see that the death rate was not high as predicted but it is still a staggering number.
 

TravelTime

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Hahahahaha That picture is me! And my daughter is now 17. She had a super fun (not really) quarantine bday with her mom.

I thought your name was Cornell!
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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... and I bet you that is your picture and you are only 16. LOL (I just know she is your daughter, unless you really still look 16. ;))
I think my picture is actually a flattering portrait - for a troglodyte.
 
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R.J.C.

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Even if, ultimately, statistics show its not as bad as feared, there's still a lot of dead people who would not have died otherwise.
Try telling them. Oh, wait... They're dead. Statistics don't help them too much. <jus' saying>
.

A lot of people die every single day from a lot of reasons. Are the ones who died from Covid-19 any more or less dead than others who died from whatever? People are acting as if we get rid of Covid-19 there won't be any more deaths in the world.
 

Cornell

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WOW! You must look like sisters when you go out. Happy Belated Birthday to your daughter.
Thank you. Her b-day is one I am sure she'll hope to forget. Not sure if you followed her story, but she had to rush home from being a foreign exchange student from Switzerland. Then a b-day while being quarantined. Since then, her life has been "rudderless" -- very sad / down. No real sense of purpose. It's hard to watch.
 

VacationForever

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Thank you. Her b-day is one I am sure she'll hope to forget. Not sure if you followed her story, but she had to rush home from being a foreign exchange student from Switzerland. Then a b-day while being quarantined. Since then, her life has been "rudderless" -- very sad / down. No real sense of purpose. It's hard to watch.
Yes I did and we were all cheering for you to have her home ASAP.
 

T_R_Oglodyte

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WOW! You must look like sisters when you go out. Happy Belated Birthday to your daughter.
Bunny trail post. DG celebrated her sixth birthday. We had a family Zoom birthday celebration - DG, DD, DSIL in San Diego County; DW DS3 and moi in Washington; DS1 and DDIL in Houston; and DS2 in Boulder (with a sneak appearance from DS2's SO). It was marvelous! As we concluded I asked why we needed to have a coronavirus isolation protocol to make something like this happen????
 

geekette

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This article has been criticized because people think it is minimizing the deaths. It is simply reporting on a study at Stanford University.
That is not the same as someone saying you should not post it. Nobody said don't post it.
 

DaveNV

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geekette

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These numbers are a due to social distancing. When you open society back up you do not want to the death rate to climb like in NYC. This randomized antibody test should not give a false sense of security that all is now safe in the world. If we open up too soon some people will still be playing Russian roulette with their lives. Just because the percentage rate goes down due to more testing it does not make the virus less lethal. I also see this as a failing of not adequately testing in the beginning. If you do not test, you do not know what you are up against. You can isolate those that are positive and contain the spread. How many times have heard people that were symptomatic request for test but were denied due to their symptoms not being severe enough thus states not having adequate testing kits. I do not feel this is great news. I feel is shows a complete lack of testing and handling in the first place.
Randomized sampling of the antibody test so we can reopen society does not make logical sense. We must test everyone to see who is safe to go back into society or not. The more we test we will see that the death rate was not high as predicted but it is still a staggering number.
dovetailing...

even if ... we have an accurate antibody test, it would still be unknown if one has true immunity or how long that immunity might last. This is what Fauci and others have said.

there have been reports of recovered persons becoming reinfected. I am not sure if this is true, might take more time to determine. I would like to know more about different strains, if there really are up to 8 strains out there. Could it be that one person could be infected by Strain A, have a mild case, recover, and then be laid out by Strain B, recover, killed by Strain C? This is not my wheelhouse, but I am curious. Maybe I only suffer Strain A once and never again? Maybe Strain A recovery gives me immunity to all strains?

Who knew we'd spend early 2020 learning all about novel coronas?
 

bogey21

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NONE of the predictions have been as catastrophic as we thought.
I watched the one hour presentation put on by the Coronavirus Task force on Friday. It included Dr Fauci, Dr Brix, Dr Redfield and the Admiral in charge of testing. They explained in excruciating detail how sampling works. They acknowledged that testing is not where we need it but that we are getting there. Then I turned on to another channel and watched a number of Governors pretty much demand testing of everyone. I'll go with the pros...

George
 

Cornell

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I watched the one hour presentation put on by the Coronavirus Task force on Friday. It included Dr Fauci, Dr Brix, Dr Redfield and the Admiral in charge of testing. They discussed how sampling works. Then I turned on to another channel and watched a number of Governors essentially demand testing of everyone. I'll go with the pros...

George
I liked the Admiral today!
 

Pathways

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I liked the Admiral today!

Isn't it strange that we have such capable experts using every chart, graph, and statistic to back up their comments to educate us, but the networks choose not to even broadcast that part.

And then show on their news 'tease' nutty comments made in response to someones even nuttier question. What a world!
 

Sea Six

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It may not be as deadly as some say, but it still kills. Are you ready to go out and play with it, thinking you won't get hurt?
 
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