I feel sure there are more like you than me, and I don't doubt in the long run that my access to inventory will become very limited thanks to many converting to points, but I will not convert and pay the extortion. one other thing you fail t factor in is the owners who hqave prime seasons, prime fixed weeks, people who use their home week almost every year who will not convert. If they don't put their weeks into points pool, you can own one million points and NVEVER trade for one of those prime weeks. Most who convert will have weak trading weeks and see this as a way to get access to better inventory. If the best inventory remains with the weeks owners, you can buy every point Marriott has for sale and rarely end up staying in prime weeks.
By the way, you refuse to address the cost of stolen points in the exchange expense comparison. II charges $89 a year, Marriott charges charges $76 more per year per year . II charges $149 for an exchange, so on the surface II costs $73 more for an exchange. When you factor in the points Marriott steals every time you deposit your week, it can easily be points which you pay $200 for annually or more. Take the $200 in point theft minus the $73 more II seems to chare, and you are $127 cheaper exchanging through II. Then you bring up lock-off fees with II as though marriott doesn't skim additional points there too, but we know that they do. Add up the points you will pay for a week in a 2 bed room and compare it to the amount of points Marriott charges for a studio and a one bed room and you will see that yes you do pay a fee to Mariott to stay in lock-offs, and it is often (if not always) more than II charges for the same thing. So yes you can exchange through II and lock-off weeks through II cheaper than using Marriott points when you factor in the annual Marriot fee and the cost of the points Marriott charges to exchange and lock off. The difference is that II is honest and upfront about what they charge members to exchange and lock-off, Marriott on the other hand skims and steals points from every transaction hiding the true cost of using points for exchanges and lock-offs.That is what TUG is here for, we point out marriott's hidden point charges to all who are willing read and listen.
You still don't understand the system. I will join. I will have the same exact options that you do, except that my WEEKS exchange through II will be cheaper. I can lock off my two weeks and make 4 Marriott to Marriott WEEKS exchanges through II for $165. It currently costs me $675 to do that in the current system.
I will never experience a devaluation unless I choose to use points. I will only use points if it is to my advantage to do so. I have already created a spreasheet by resort that allows me to capture the full value of my current weeks through the POINTS system by trading a combination of cash nights and Sun-Thu stays. If the inventory is there that is where my future business will go. If the inventory is not there I will continue to trade WEEKS in II like I always have. I will have some risk in the first year, but the extra 800 points and the Marriott owned inventory will make a good exchange more likely for me in year 1 than the old system without having to wait to see the result.
That does not mean that I like the new system. I would rather stay with the current one, but being a realist to me means following the system, not raging against the machine.