BocaBum99
TUG Member
No way. I bought this when this was being spread on the board a few days ago, and I finally realized that this is wrong. Marriott cannot create new demand out of thin air. They are not going to have 1 million new points owners overnight AND the point owners that they get are going to try for a lot less prime weeks because they could not afford the 7000 points for a prime week in Maui. So, unlike in the past where every Marriott week owner would try to get the top weeks, now....many of them will try for less exciting weeks because they want to stretch their points.
So, what will Marriott do with the rest of their prime inventory? They will try to rent it. Yeah....and? They have always been trying to rent their prime inventory. They charge too much. THey have to. It would take away from their brand name if they did not charge 3x as much for a 2 bedroom Villa as opposed to a Hotel Room. So, they can try renting until they are blue in the face. They will not get that many takers at those prices.
So, now what? Marriott has exhausted rentals and their points owners, and they still have lots of inventory. Where will it go? The only place that Marriott can drop it where they do not get egg on their face (by renting it cheap) is Interval. So, Interval weeks will still get plenty of inventory for the forseeable future.
Yes, your conclusion is correct that Interval will continue to get deposits. Unfortunately, it will be more of the leftovers after the points members have picked it over, though.
Prior to this system, Marriott would randonly put out inventory into Interval. If it were a prime week, for 24 hours after that deposit was made, saavy exchangers could grab it. Now, that inventory will be held in a points pool and made visible to all points owners for an extended period of time. So, it will be grabbed in a much larger window. What is left will truly be leftovers.
It is for the reasons you raise that I thought for sure that Marriott would have it's own bonus time/open season/Flexchange option. The fact that they didn't do it is leaving lots of money on the table. It is one of their biggest mistakes in creating this program.
The biggest mistake is the points skimming. That was just stupid and now a PR nightmare that they need to address. They could have easily solved this problem by increasing the total maintenance fees by 7% and giving owners equal value in points exchange. That's all they would have to do. If I were the CEO of the Vacation Ownership business unit, a product manager would be losing their job over that gaffe.