I think what most people forget is that most Marriott customers are not Tuggers. There are 400,000 plus Marriott owners and only 43,000 tuggers. In fact most tuggers think that Marriott owners are crazy and spend way too much for the Marriott 'experience'
Maybe a few hundred active here and this is peak usage
and maybe 10x that as casual users.
Before people crucify the Marriott marketing team, try to think about their true customers:
1. They are older and probably less tech savvy. Don't like spending hours searching II inventory on line. Don't care about 1,000 post Tug threads.
2. They bought Marriott instead of a second house and may have 50-100k invested in the system.
3. They hate II because of #1 and because they don't like giving up something to potentially get something. If they trade they give up their view they paid a premium for. They pay a lot of fees, etc. They allow Marriott to pick the week to deposit because the trust them and II does not give them the value. They would rather talk to a counselor and have a relationship.
4. They are successful and busy. Sometimes it is hard to get away for a full seven days. They will never run a rental business and don't troll red week/craigs list to get "deals" $1,000 is a nit to them.
5. They are the people who are screwed on the other side of the trade that Tuggers enjoy. They give their Hawaii week to their son who trades it to Orlando
They deposit Grande Ocean for points because they can't get away for a full week
6. They use Marriott hotels and actually often trade for MR points because it allows them to vacation in short intervals like they are able. Most Tuggers think this is stupid.
7. They like Marriott and trust them. Most Tuggers also think this is stupid.
For these people a 7% skim is meaningless vs. actually getting to use their investment in a more efficient manner. They can now:
1. Use partial weeks
2. Trade some of their week for nights and other for MR points
3. Trade down and still have points left over to convert to MR points
4. Trade for the view that they want
5. Not have to deal with II or computers, but have a trusted person to call
6. Only pay one fee vs. getting nickeled and dimed
7. They now see that their resorts truly are worth more, and don't get the dregs left over from II.
These are the people Marriott wants to make happy and who they have responded to, not Tuggers. Most don't have a clue about the points system and will see it as a big improvement. When they get the email they will call and convert.
And it was actually pretty slick. You can enroll and as a bonus you get 800 points. However, 800 points is not enough to go anywhere so why not convert your weeks and see how it works. If you don't like it you can always keep things the way they are. Most people will 'invest' $700 to protect a $100k investment.
There is plenty of invetory in Oceana Palms, Marco Island, Hawaii, Lakeshore Reserve with the Ritz, etc. Lots of high class resorts and nice opportunities for short get aways if you have the points and means. Lots of new cruises, experiences, etc.
When these people convert to 'test drive' the system the inventory in the points system will increase which will make more opportunities which will lead to more conversions which will create momentum that will make the system successful.
Marriott got burned because home equity dried up and because they extended too much credit to second tier customers. I think they are going upscale for MCVI and downscaling the Ritz program and shooting directly for high net worth baby boomers.
Time will tell, but I think the system will be a big success.