College football 2015

[am1]

A heartbreaker for Michigan. Hopefully they continue strong to beat ohio state.

Alabama continues to impress and get back to the top.

 

[TUGBrian]

that michigan ending...wow.

 

[Elan]

So who would be in the playoffs if the season ended now? OSU, TCU, Utah, and LSU? That would be a pretty decent field. Baylor, MSU?

I think this year will provide even more evidence than last that 8 is a much better number for a playoff. Lots of football left.

 

[csxjohn]

Alabama beats Texas A&M but Texas stays ahead of them in the polls???

 

[ace2000]

Thankfully today isn't the day to decide. Baylor AND TCU deserve it today, but that position will be decided when they play each other at TCU. After the weekend's lucky win against Michigan, I'd leave Michigan St out for now.

 

[Elan]

Thankfully today isn't the day to decide. Baylor AND TCU deserve it today, but that position will be decided when they play each other at TCU.

Yes, and MSU plays OSU near the end of the season also. But I'll go on record now as stating that there won't be a clear cut top 4 at the end of the year. I'd love to be wrong.

Colley Matrix Top 10 :

1. 	Utah    	0.971088	6-0	0.628118: 5	2	4	W: #14 California
2. 	LSU           	0.928695	6-0	0.571593: 25	1	3	W: #9 Florida
3. 	Michigan St    	0.918254	7-0	0.537756: 50	1	1	W: #19 Michigan
4. 	Ohio St    	0.905354	7-0	0.521169: 62	0	1	W: #27 Penn St
5. 	Iowa    	0.903364	7-0	0.518611: 63	2	4	W: #23 Northwestern
6. 	Clemson    	0.871586	6-0	0.495448: 78	1	2	W: #13 Notre Dame
7. 	Florida St    	0.853888	6-0	0.471851: 93	0	1	W: #47 Miami (FL)
8. 	TCU           	0.852008	7-0	0.452582: 106	0	1	W: #42 Texas Tech
9. 	Florida    	0.849638	6-1	0.592392: 15	0	2	W: #34 Mississippi
10. 	Oklahoma St    	0.846327	6-0	0.461770: 97	0	0	W: #52 West Virginia

 

[ace2000]

Alabama beats Texas A&M but Texas stays ahead of them in the polls???

Don't they announce later today? I'm not sure what poll you're referring to though, but it would be unlikely to see A&M remain ahead of them.

 

[Elan]

Coaches Poll:

Coaches Poll
RK	TEAM	        REC	PTS	TREND
1	Ohio State(45)	7-0	1547	—
2	Baylor(12)   	6-0	1488	—
3	TCU(4)	        7-0	1417	—
4	Michigan State	7-0	1334	—
5	LSU(1)	        6-0	1324	—
6	Clemson	        6-0	1271	—
7	Utah(1)	        6-0	1258	—
8	Alabama	        6-1	1123	 1
9	Florida State	6-0	1111	 1
10	Notre Dame	6-1	924	 3

 

[TUGBrian]

currently most of the teams in the top 10 are scheduled to play each other, so sadly....none of this really means much of anything at the moment.

1 plays 4 later
6 plays 9 later
2 plays 3 later
8 plays 5 later

the only team that i feel doesnt belong is utah....as they have really played noone (michigan in their first game of the season...but have struggled against sub-par competition since).

that said, clearly the voters like the team...and with them unlikely to lose for awahile...id expect them to stay near the top.

 

[csxjohn]

Don't they announce later today? I'm not sure what poll you're referring to though, but it would be unlikely to see A&M remain ahead of them.

Since I don't follow it that closely I thought I was looking at the new poll.

 

[Elan]

the only team that i feel doesnt belong is utah....as they have really played noone (michigan in their first game of the season...but have struggled against sub-par competition since).

Wow, really? I don't like the Utes, but they have one of the more impressive resumes to this point of anyone that's near the top.

Utah gave Cal their only loss. Had Michigan not gaffed on the last play Saturday, Utah would have given them their only loss. The only opponent on Utah's schedule thus far with a losing record is Fresno State. From a "who have you beaten thus far" perspective, Utah is way more deserved of a high ranking than many of the other unbeatens.

Utah opponent record: 24-16
LSU opp record: 22-18
OSU opp record: 23-24
MSU opp record: 22-24
Clemson opp record: 18-21
FSU opp record: 16-21

I didn't check every team, but on quick review it appears that, other than LSU, Utah is the only unbeaten with an opponent record over .500. I'm not saying Utah is great or predicting them to do anything going forward (that's the biased media's job ). But, objectively, I'm not sure how anyone could single out Utah as being undeserving of a high ranking when the available data indicates just the opposite.

 

[csxjohn]

the only team that i feel doesnt belong is utah....as they have really played noone (michigan in their first game of the season...but have struggled against sub-par competition since).

that said, clearly the voters like the team...and with them unlikely to lose for awahile...id expect them to stay near the top.

We know from last year that the committee doesn't think the way the AP voters do, so it really doesn't matter now.

The first Committee meeting will be Nov 2-3 this year.

 

[Elan]

Speaking of Utah, I wouldn't be totally shocked if they got bumped off soon, maybe even by USC this weekend. Very seldom that anyone makes it through the P12 undefeated.

 

[TUGBrian]

my issue was that utah was an afterthought by the pollsters...until they destroyed oregon....then everyone started saying they deserved a top 5 spot.

the problem was...everyone thought oregon was still a top team (because of the tight game with then MSU)....which they have clearly proven they arent.

its the use of "selective logic" vs overall logic that frustrates me in polls...not so much the actual teams themselves.

 

[Elan]

my issue was that utah was an afterthought by the pollsters...until they destroyed oregon....then everyone started saying they deserved a top 5 spot.

the problem was...everyone thought oregon was still a top team (because of the tight game with then MSU)....which they have clearly proven they arent.

its the use of "selective logic" vs overall logic that frustrates me in polls...not so much the actual teams themselves.

Yeah, that's why the idea of humans being heavily involved really bothers me. I think nearly everyone would agree that if the objective is to identify the "best" team, then the first thing to look at would be W/L record. Should 2 or more teams possess the same record, then the next logical step would to be to attempt to quantify the strength of each team's wins. Logically, this would be again based on the W/L records of each team's opponents.

With specific regard to Utah, they're an afterthought mostly because they aren't one of CFB's bluebloods. I'd argue that they are top 5 based more on their wins over Michigan and Cal than their win over Oregon (though the way they destroyed Oregon certainly helped). Regardless of how highly or lowly one thinks of Utah, they do have the most impressive resume of all the unbeatens at this point in time. At least that's what the data says. I suppose we could ignore the available data, but then it just becomes a media and network manipulated popularity contest, and we're back to something similar to the BCS era, which was a joke.

Clearly, should Utah lose, or should Cal and Michigan and/or the rest of Utah's opponents start to lose regularly (Cal lost last night), then Utah should drop in the rankings. Until that time, they're close to where they should be.

 

[ace2000]

Yeah, that's why the idea of humans being heavily involved really bothers me. I think nearly everyone would agree that if the objective is to identify the "best" team, then the first thing to look at would be W/L record. Should 2 or more teams possess the same record, then the next logical step would to be to attempt to quantify the strength of each team's wins. Logically, this would be again based on the W/L records of each team's opponents.

I'm not sure if you meant for it to come out that way, but I don't think you can go by W/L record as the sole top priority. At the least, SOS should be ranked just as high.

 

[TUGBrian]

ive often wondered why they dont have a grade for each game played.

playing a decent (or at least in the opinion of the football world) team well should mean more than wiping the field with a cupcake team.

and vice versa, putting a poor performance out vs a team you were meant to beat should count more against you!

and im not talking about just the final score...anyone who actually watches football knows the difference!

 

[Elan]

I'm not sure if you meant for it to come out that way, but I don't think you can go by W/L record as the sole top priority. At the least, SOS should be ranked just as high.

I'm saying that if a Martian came to earth and knew nothing about CFB tradition or SEC bias or E$PN interests or whatever, and thus considered all teams equal at the start of the season, then the most intuitive ranking criteria would be W/L record. Presumably, not knowing anything else, a team with a 6-0 record is "better" than a team with a 3-3 record.

Here are the top 10 teams by SOS and their records (SOS according to Colley, but pick any SOS ranking system):

Texas 2-4
Ark 2-4
Mich 5-2
L'ville 2-4
Utah 6-0
W Va 3-3
W Mi 3-3
Mlnd 2-4
Gtech 2-5
NW 5-2

Clearly, that's not the cream of the crop in CFB. Of the 10 toughest schedules, only 3 of those teams could be considered for the playoff, and even that's stretching it.

Here are the remaining 14 teams without a loss:

Utah
OSU
LSU
MSU
Iowa
Clemson
FSU
TCU
Ok St
Memphis
Baylor
Toledo
Temple
Houston

That looks more like a potential playoff field to me.

 

[ace2000]

I'm saying that if a Martian came to earth and knew nothing about CFB tradition or SEC bias or E$PN interests or whatever, and thus considered all teams equal at the start of the season, then the most intuitive ranking criteria would be W/L record. Presumably, not knowing anything else, a team with a 6-0 record is "better" than a team with a 3-3 record.

Here are the top 10 teams by SOS and their records (SOS according to Colley, but pick any SOS ranking system):

Texas 2-4
Ark 2-4
Mich 5-2
L'ville 2-4
Utah 6-0
W Va 3-3
W Mi 3-3
Mlnd 2-4
Gtech 2-5
NW 5-2

Clearly, that's not the cream of the crop in CFB. Of the 10 toughest schedules, only 3 of those teams could be considered for the playoff, and even that's stretching it.

Here are the remaining 14 teams without a loss:

Utah
OSU
LSU
MSU
Iowa
Clemson
FSU
TCU
Ok St
Memphis
Baylor
Toledo
Temple
Houston

That looks more like a potential playoff field to me.

Ah, but now you're saying that SOS is the sole priority (at least in your example here). I'm saying you have to give SOS and record somewhat of an equal weight. There are many 5-1 teams that are much better than other 6-0 teams for sure, we all know that.

 

[Elan]

ive often wondered why they dont have a grade for each game played.

playing a decent (or at least in the opinion of the football world) team well should mean more than wiping the field with a cupcake team.

and vice versa, putting a poor performance out vs a team you were meant to beat should count more against you!

and im not talking about just the final score...anyone who actually watches football knows the difference!

So what do you do near the start of the season? Everyone thinks Oregon is going to be good, so MSU gets a high grade for beating them? But, it turns out that Oregon is pretty mediocre. So then what?

 

[ace2000]

So what do you do near the start of the season? Everyone thinks Oregon is going to be good, so MSU gets a high grade for beating them? But, it turns out that Oregon is pretty mediocre. So then what?

Hey - You tell us, this is your dreamland hypothetical ranking scenario...

Obviously, there would have to be other criteria involved. i.e. such as whether a school plays in the SEC or not... HA!

 

[TUGBrian]

and for years now you see the top teams continue to schedule (for the most part) very weak competition at the beginning of the season.

because its far better to beat the pants of an annual cupcake, than actually schedule a solid opponent.

 

[Elan]

Hey - You tell us, this is your dreamland hypothetical ranking scenario...

Obviously, there would have to be other criteria involved. i.e. such as whether a school plays in the SEC or not... HA!

I already did. Every team starts out even. Wins and losses will work themselves out. At the end, if two teams have identical records, the team with tougher SOS should be ranked higher. Pretty simple.

 

[TUGBrian]

That doesnt factor in head to head play, as well as outcome vs shared competition etc.


kinda like how alabama is ranked above ole miss =)

 

[csxjohn]

Here's what the NCAA has to say.

"When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
•Championships won
•Strength of schedule
•Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
•Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)"


This is a good read and I agree with the reasoning that it's an art and not a science.

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee-protocol