College football 2015

[TUGBrian]

Rough week for the SEC. Arkansas getting beat by Toledo, and OK won againt Tenn. Auburn and Missouri nearly got beat by two weaker teams.

certainly sounds like that subdivision team that choked away a win vs auburn is just not ranked high enough!

im betting since kentucky won its first SEC game in 18 tries saturday, they find a way into the top 25!

 

[TUGBrian]

guess i should have looked at the polls, I always thought they came out tomorrow.

anywhoo...

auburn takes a HUGE nosedive down to 18 but mizzou only down 1?

arkansas, msu, and tenn all drop out....but all remain the top (non ranked) vote getters...so essentially are 26, 27, 28 etc....and will be easy to move back in with their next wins.

 

[Talent312]

arkansas, msu, and tenn all drop out....but all remain the top (non ranked) vote getters...

It's gonn'a be tuff keeping the numbers up when SEC teams beat up on each other every week. Self-inflicted carnage. But such is life in the SEC.
.

 

[jme]

Rough week for the SEC. Arkansas getting beat by Toledo, and OK won againt Tenn. Auburn and Missouri nearly got beat by two weaker teams.

Arkansas is a bottom-dweller and underachiever, not relevant. They can't beat their own B team.

Oklahoma was ranked above Tennessee, and Tennessee has been down for several years. Oklahoma, are you kidding? They SHOULD BE in top 5 every year, which is a mystery, imho. Overdue for them to regain what they used to have. Texas too.....I just can't believe those two schools of late. If I were the ADs, heads would roll every year if need be.

not surprised by either of those two games.

Guess you missed all the other SEC scores. and Auburn's squeaking by was ONLY because of my strong prayers for them to lose. I gotta do better.

SEC has no worries....we'll talk nearer the end of the season, OK?
Meanwhile, Go Dawgs. (HELP, we need a QB, and fast.)

Most teams schedule powder puff opponents early and definitely play down to their levels.....expected for many.

 

[Elan]

Always nice to see Bama lose.

 

[am1]

Always nice to see Bama lose.

It is not often.

I was at the miami/nebraska game and left in the 4th quarter before nebraska really started scoring. Had to make it to Bonnet Creek before 11:45 to cancel reservations. Just made it. What a last few minutes it must have been. This will not help Golden's chances.

 

[TUGBrian]

some incredible endings to games yesterday for sure!

im sure alabama coming back in the 4th and making a game of it will go a long way into keeping them in the top 10 despite the loss...and conversely the great performance put on by OleMiss will do wonders for them in the polls!

gotta keep the SEC west ranked high...because they are playing super tough competition (other sec west teams!)

 

[TUGBrian]

and just looked....auburn is STILL ranked in the top 25...how is this even possible?

had to laugh at this comment:

Bama, #2, lost AT HOME to a top fifteen team and jumped to number 11?

Oregon, #5, lost AWAY to #7 MSU and jumped to number 12?

And Auburn is still ranked?

Will you guys sell your grandmother to keep an SEC team in the playoffs?

 

[am1]

some incredible endings to games yesterday for sure!

im sure alabama coming back in the 4th and making a game of it will go a long way into keeping them in the top 10 despite the loss...and conversely the great performance put on by OleMiss will do wonders for them in the polls!

gotta keep the SEC west ranked high...because they are playing super tough competition (other sec west teams!)

Is there a better conference then the sec west year in and year out? Sure they get ranked higher then some would like and do lose on occasion but overall they deserve it. I think it is great for the SEC west footprint that their schools dominate college football. College football is the best thing they have.

 

[Elan]

and just looked....auburn is STILL ranked in the top 25...how is this even possible?

had to laugh at this comment:

Even though I picked Auburn to make the playoff (thought def would be much better under Muschamp), that they're still ranked is hilarious. A narrow victory over 0-3 Louisville, an OT win over an FCS school and an ass-whoopin' at the hands of LSU gets you into the Top 25?

I would defy anyone to tell me why Auburn is ranked ahead of Temple or Toledo based strictly on what's transpired thus far.

 

[TUGBrian]

biggest winners....ole miss jumps 12 spots to number 3

lsu jumps 5 spots for beating a clearly overrated auburn team....

gotta just keep swapping in those sec west teams to keep them propped up!

the SEC west is only considered "the best conference" because of their inflated rankings year after year....yea they play a tough schedule against other overinflated SEC west teams.

 

[am1]

biggest winners....ole miss jumps 12 spots to number 3

lsu jumps 5 spots for beating a clearly overrated auburn team....

gotta just keep swapping in those sec west teams to keep them propped up!

the SEC west is only considered "the best conference" because of their inflated rankings year after year....yea they play a tough schedule against other overinflated SEC west teams.

And winning national championships. Most likely an SEC west team will win again this year compared to the other conferences let alone divisions.

 

[TUGBrian]

certainly helps when the powers that be do their best all year to ensure 1 or more of the teams are still playing for the championship...

 

[Elan]

certainly helps when the powers that be do their best all year to ensure 1 or more of the teams are still playing for the championship...

Exactly. They wouldn't have those championships if they hadn't been picked to play in the games. Funny that in the first year of a playoff the SEC doesn't even make the championship game. Strange coincidence.

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[Elan]

I think I've mentioned the Colley Matrix before. Although I don't claim to know the full algorithm, I like the Colley ranking method because it does away with ignorant biases. It ranks teams on their W/L record firstly, and then on the quality of competition that each team has played, where that quality is also based only on W's and L's -- hence a matrix. Obviously, the more games played, the more representative the ranking becomes, which is how it should be.

Current Colley rankings:

http://www.colleyrankings.com/currank.html

1. LSU 0.878199 3-0 0.630331: 10 0 2 W: #35 Mississippi St
2. Northwe 0.862024 4-0 0.543035: 47 0 2 W: #34 Stanford
3. Florida 0.845348 4-0 0.518022: 65 1 1 W: #24 Kentucky
4. Utah 0.840894 4-0 0.511340: 73 0 1 W: #30 Michigan
5. UCLA 0.840156 4-0 0.510234: 74 0 2 W: #44 Arizona
6. Tex A&M 0.839767 4-0 0.509651: 76 0 0 W: #64 Nevada
7. Oklahom 0.838953 3-0 0.564921: 31 0 1 W: #47 Tulsa
8. Indiana 0.832386 4-0 0.498578: 82 0 1 W: #36 West Kentucky
9. Ohio St 0.828023 4-0 0.492034: 85 0 0 W: #58 Hawaii
10. TCU 0.823747 4-0 0.485621: 93 0 2 W: #31 Minnesota
11. Mich St 0.817695 4-0 0.476542: 98 0 0 W: #56 Air Force
12. Temple 0.805164 3-0 0.508607: 77 0 1 W: #38 Penn St
13. NC State 0.804201 4-0 0.456301: 105 0 0 W: #81 South Alabama
14. Miss 0.799509 4-0 0.449264: 111 1 1 W: #25 Alabama
15. Notre D 0.785388 4-0 0.428082: 119 0 0 W: #72 Georgia Tech
16. Georgia 0.773922 4-0 0.410883: 127 0 0 W: #60 South Carolina
17. Florida St 0.771239 3-0 0.452064: 108 0 0 W: #53 Boston Coll
18. West Va 0.758184 3-0 0.430306: 118 0 1 W: #48 Georgia Southern
19. Iowa 0.756532 4-0 0.384798: 134 0 0 W: #51 Pittsburgh
20. California 0.754774 4-0 0.382161: 138 0 0 W: #76 Washington
21. Toledo 0.753773 3-0 0.422955: 122 0 0 W: #88 Arkansas
22. Navy 0.746298 3-0 0.410497: 128 0 0 W: #61 East Carolina
23. Memphis 0.736510 4-0 0.354764: 145 0 0 W: #68 Bowling Green
24. Kentucky 0.735460 3-1 0.603190: 14 0 1 W: #45 Missouri
25. Alabama 0.734545 3-1 0.601818: 16 0 1 W: #37 Wisconsin

 

[TUGBrian]

a more useful system would simply to go off the vegas oddsmakers....as those are the only people putting their money where their mouth is.

which would look something like this

Ohio State 9/5
Michigan State 8/1
Baylor 9/1
Georgia 10/1
LSU 10/1
Ole Miss 11/1
TCU 12/1
Notre Dame 15/1
Texas A&M 16/1
Alabama 18/1
USC 22/1
Clemson 27/1
Oklahoma 27/1
Florida State 30/1
UCLA 30/1
Stanford 45/1
Utah 45/1
Michigan 50/1
Oklahoma State 55/1
California 100/1
Florida 110/1
Miami, Fl. 200/1
West Virginia 200/1
Iowa 250/1
Kansas State 300/1
Oregon 300/1
Wisconsin 300/1

 

[ace2000]

a more useful system would simply to go off the vegas oddsmakers....as those are the only people putting their money where their mouth is.

It'll never happen, but you are exactly right!

 

[bogey21]

I think TCU is as over rated this year as they were under rated in prior years. I think they will lose to Texas this week. In fact I bet $100 on it. I could have taken Texas plus 15 points but took the ML instead at 5-1 odds.

George

 

[Elan]

My point in posting the Colley rankings is that there are those that like to claim that beating other teams that are ranked in the AP or coaches poll means something. The Colley ranking system is far more objective than either of those polls. Of course, even the Colley system is limited by the relatively small input data set.

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[am1]

Those odds are based on demand as well. Also based on who they think the selection committee would take if teams were "tied".

Not objective at all.

a more useful system would simply to go off the vegas oddsmakers....as those are the only people putting their money where their mouth is.

which would look something like this

Ohio State 9/5
Michigan State 8/1
Baylor 9/1
Georgia 10/1
LSU 10/1
Ole Miss 11/1
TCU 12/1
Notre Dame 15/1
Texas A&M 16/1
Alabama 18/1
USC 22/1
Clemson 27/1
Oklahoma 27/1
Florida State 30/1
UCLA 30/1
Stanford 45/1
Utah 45/1
Michigan 50/1
Oklahoma State 55/1
California 100/1
Florida 110/1
Miami, Fl. 200/1
West Virginia 200/1
Iowa 250/1
Kansas State 300/1
Oregon 300/1
Wisconsin 300/1

 

[Elan]

Those odds are based on demand as well. Also based on who they think the selection committee would take if teams were "tied".

Not objective at all.

Exactly right.

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[Elan]

I think TCU is as over rated this year as they were under rated in prior years. I think they will lose to Texas this week. In fact I bet $100 on it. I could have taken Texas plus 15 points but took the ML instead at 5-1 odds.

George

TCU certainly hasn't been impressive thus far. What's funny is that TCU used to be one of the best defensive teams in the country when they were in the MWC, and their offense was always marginal. Now, it's the other way around.
Having said that, I don't see them losing to the Longhorns. But, we shall see.....

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[ace2000]

Those odds are based on demand as well. Also based on who they think the selection committee would take if teams were "tied".

Not objective at all.

Only way to know for sure is to let them all play each other (which is impossible). I've learned that the oddsmakers are more often right than wrong. I'm sticking with that. Any of these other polls and calculations are going to be wrong too.

November 21st - Ohio St. vs Michigan St. (number 1 vs. number 2). I don't see either of these two losing before then.

 

[Elan]

Only way to know for sure is to let them all play each other (which is impossible). I've learned that the oddsmakers are more often right than wrong. I'm sticking with that. Any of these other polls and calculations are going to be wrong too.

Not so much which is right or wrong. Ultimately, all the rankings will be proven to be wrong. My post regarding the Colley Matrix was not an attempt to identify which teams would make the playoffs, but rather to point out that there is a more objective ranking system available for those that like to claim that a given team "beat 4 top 10 ranked opponents", or whatever.

For instance, this week's ultra-hyped "big showdown" between AP #8 UGA and AP #13 Bama is, more objectively, a showdown between #16 UGA and #25 Alabama -- when based on wins, losses and quality of opponent.

 

[ace2000]

Not so much which is right or wrong. Ultimately, all the rankings will be proven to be wrong. My post regarding the Colley Matrix was not an attempt to identify which teams would make the playoffs, but rather to point out that there is a more objective ranking system available for those that like to claim that a given team "beat 4 top 10 ranked opponents", or whatever.

For instance, this week's ultra-hyped "big showdown" between AP #8 UGA and AP #13 Bama is, more objectively, a showdown between #16 UGA and #25 Alabama -- when based on wins, losses and quality of opponent.

Have you looked into the Sagarin rankings? Very similar and they've been around for years. They take SOS into account.

They've got the Alabama vs. Georgia game as #1 vs. #5, so you probably won't think they are very objective.