College football 2015

[pedro47]

Prediction for this season there will be no undefeated teams this year. Sorry Ohio State fans.

 

[Elan]

Have you looked into the Sagarin rankings? Very similar and they've been around for years. They take SOS into account.

They've got the Alabama vs. Georgia game as #1 vs. #5, so you probably won't think they are very objective.

Yeah, I know about most of the computer ranking systems from the BCS era (sadly, I've since forgotten most of it ). Most have some form of built in offset. That's why I refer to Colley more often than the others. Colley starts all teams equal. As I said, I don't claim to know the full algorithm, but I do like that it starts with all teams being equal. Sagarin is a predictive ranking system -- his algorithm tries to predict the outcome of any given contest. Colley is not. So, to answer your question, no I don't consider Sagarin particularly objective. Having said that, none are perfect.

Looking at the Sagarin, he's trying to convince us that Bama would beat Ole Miss if they played tomorrow on a neutral site, yet we already watched Ole Miss beat Bama in Tuscaloosa. I'll go with reality over perception. YMMV

 

[ace2000]

Looking at the Sagarin, he's trying to convince us that Bama would beat Ole Miss if they played tomorrow on a neutral site, yet we already watched Ole Miss beat Bama in Tuscaloosa. I'll go with reality over perception. YMMV

Ouch, good point!

 

[TUGBrian]

indeed, and thus the problem with polls based on statistics!

that said, alabama was a 6.5 point favorite with the oddsmakers in that game!

UGA is a 2.5point favorite over bama (but at home, so this essentially is a pickem game)

 

[Elan]

Interesting tidbit (from ESPN.com):

The over/under for the Texas Tech-Baylor game grew to as high as 90.5 points on Wednesday in Las Vegas, the highest college football total since at least 1990, according to ESPN Stats & Information.

 

[csxjohn]

Only way to know for sure is to let them all play each other (which is impossible). I've learned that the oddsmakers are more often right than wrong. I'm sticking with that. Any of these other polls and calculations are going to be wrong too.

November 21st - Ohio St. vs Michigan St. (number 1 vs. number 2). I don't see either of these two losing before then.

I don't see Ohio State being ranked #1 once "the committee" sets the rankings. They will not leave OSU in the top spot if they continue to play the way they have the last few weeks.

And to me that's a good thing, no reason a team should be ranked #1 just because they won it all last year. The current polls will leave them there until they suffer a loss, the committee won't wait that long.

 

[am1]

How high does Alabama deserve to go after a lot of top teams losing? My guess is 6 or 7.

 

[ace2000]

How high does Alabama deserve to go after a lot of top teams losing? My guess is 6 or 7.

The word deserve is an interesting choice of words. I think Utah gets position 6 and then that means Alabama is fighting Clemson for position 7. My guess is 7th.

Contrary to recent popular rumors, Alabama is not dead.

November 3rd is the key date - it's the date of the first real poll.

 

[Elan]

It's entirely possible that UGA wasn't very good. They'd played nobody.

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[TUGBrian]

it was a great day of football last night for sure!

I think my favorite part was watching all the announcers fawn over ole miss, many calling them the best team in the country and how they could easily jump to 1 given the struggles of the top two teams earlier in the day.

then of course...the game got played...and I am not even kidding...one of those very espn announcers (an FSU grad at that) literally said he felt the gators were the best team in the SEC...and possibly the country.

*facepalm


and in an even bigger suprise, the biggest mover of the week in this mornings poll? utah...and they were on a bye!

 

[bogey21]

I think TCU is as over rated this year as they were under rated in prior years. I think they will lose to Texas this week. In fact I bet $100 on it. I could have taken Texas plus 15 points but took the ML instead at 5-1 odds.

Talk about a bad bet. Game was over at the end of the first quarter when TCU was leading 30-0. I got short changed with 5-1 odds. It should have been 15-1!!

George

 

[csxjohn]

Talk about a bad bet. Game was over at the end of the first quarter when TCU was leading 30-0. I got short changed with 5-1 odds. It should have been 15-1!!

George

If that were the case you may have bet more.:ignore:

I wanted to bet on Indiana with the points but with my luck OSU would finally wake up so I did not bet.

 

[csxjohn]

Something the "unbiased" polls can't take into consideration is emotion.

Everyone who plays against Notre Dame gets up for the game big time.

Same thing when someone goes up against last year's conference champ or national champ.

I think the rankings need human input to add these kinds of things to the mix.

 

[Talent312]

Check this out: Florida player dances with Trooper...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ug6dlrsQpvg

Cool.

 

[Elan]

Colley has the following top 5 after this weekend:

1) Northwestern
2) Florida
3) aTm
4) Oklahoma
5) Utah

ESPN power rankings:

1) Utah
2) TCU
3) Baylor
4) Ohio St
5) Clemson

Adding Sagarin:

1) Alabama
2) USC
3) Baylor
4) Stanford
5) Oklahoma

 

[Elan]

Great article today on the power of brand name recognition in CFB (article should be sub-titled "Why the polls and the entire BCS era was a bad joke" ):

http://espn.go.com/college-football...w-brand-names-figure-college-football-playoff

 

[lizap]

Don't understand all the Nick Saban bias. Why is Alabama ranked ahead of so many unbeaten teams??

 

[Elan]

I wonder how long it will take USC to realize that Sarkisian was a bad hire? It's always cool to see teams like USC get thumped by a squad with considerably less talent. Nice win for Pete and the Huskies.

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[Elan]

I wonder how long it will take USC to realize that Sarkisian was a bad hire? It's always cool to see teams like USC get thumped by a squad with considerably less talent. Nice win for Pete and the Huskies.

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I guess that resolved itself quickly...............

 

[Talent312]

So will Florida have to forfeit any games for it's "supplement"-ingesting QB?
Answer seems to be prolly-not, if coaches only found out about it yesterday.
But sadly (for me), our Cinderella Ranking will disappear in the rear-view.
.

 

[Elan]

Wow, first Sark gets fired, and now, according to reports, Spurrier is resigning, effective immediately. Bad day to be a USC coach.

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[Talent312]

Wow, first Sark gets fired, and now, according to reports, Spurrier is resigning, effective immediately. Bad day to be a USC coach.

Although he ended his coaching-days at South Carolina, Steve Spurrier is still beloved at my school, the University of Florida. I think that most fans there would have given him a lifetime contract. He was the fun in the "fun and gun" offense. His statue stands outside stadium.

 

[ace2000]

Bad day to be a USC coach.

Whew, there were no reports that the coach at the University of Southern Connecticut got fired yesterday.

 

[pedro47]

Although he ended his coaching-days at South Carolina, Steve Spurrier is still beloved at my school, the University of Florida. I think that most fans there would have given him a lifetime contract. He was the fun in the "fun and gun" offense. His statue stands outside stadium.

Today, South Carolina loss a great coach and a fine southern gentleman in Steve Spurrier. I wish him a long retirement and happy trails in retirement.

 

[TUGBrian]

so much for ole miss and northwestern being top ranked teams! what a collapse in recent weeks.