[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[klpca]

I will say this, based upon a recent stay in Tahoe and a few overnight stays here in SD: be prepared to see people who are on a vacation to also take a vacation from their masks. It has been absolutely consistent. You are fine once you are off of the beaten path but Orange Ave on Coronado, the Mission Beach boardwalk, and Heavenly Village - all areas had a large number of maskless people. And of course no enforcement so it is what it is. But once you get out of the congested areas you will see most people wearing masks. So if you are traveling and wish to avoid that situation you are going to have to find other things to do.

 

[slip]

I think people will come but at a much lower number. Some people on the west coast visit a few times a year and their return will depend on their first experience when they return.

I think the travel to Hawaii will be down enough that more businesses will be closing permanently. This will be a long recovery.

 

[Blues]

On the slight possibility that Oct 1 will be allowing entry with proof of negative test, I have started to look at possible testing sites in the Santa Cruz/San Jose vicinity because that's where I will be prior to flight departure.

So far, no success. Now I am imagining Maui open for inbound, but me not able to get tested. What to do?

ARCpoint Labs of Monterey Bay

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They're at Ryan Ranch, near Monterey airport. I've used them to get an antibody test earlier in the year, but they also have PCR and rapid tests.

 

[csodjd]

150 is just an arbitrary number, but it does give them something to point to. A more nuanced approach would be to also look at things like hospital capacity. I think the biggest difference between now and June/July is that the $600/week unemployment benefit wasn’t extended. Reality is starting to sink in of how decimated the tourism industry is, and the impact it will have on ordinary people.

It may not be as arbitrary as it may seem. There is good data now for predicting what percentage of infected individuals will require hospital care and/or ICU care. That allows pretty straight forward extrapolation out to capacities, both hospital/ICU and tracing for containment.

 

[csodjd]

OK, do you agree that back in June and July there were the very low case rates in Hawaii, much lower than 150/day. In June there was talk of opening Hawaii to Trans-Pacific Visitors but the Governor extended the 14 Quarantine over and over again. Now the cases are much higher than in June and July, so what is so great about coming down to less than 150 cases/day make him open Hawaii to visitors?

Absolutely. That's objective data. Nothing to disagree about. But not terribly relevant in the larger scheme of things. Much more is known today about transmission, treatment, hospitalization rates, risk factors, etc. Testing capacity and reliability is very different today than it was in June/July. And the sense of urgency is different in light of the CARES Act and stimulus money then, versus none now. It's just apples to oranges, and looking backward is not productive in terms of solving the issues and challenges. It may be helpful someday to know what to do differently the next time, but for now, it's about what we know TODAY.

 

[csodjd]

I've held onto my hope for a 70th Birthday trip to Maui in mid October. Made a few changes so I can quarantine 14 days at Marriott Kaanapali, if need be. Being retired, my time is cheap.

On the slight possibility that Oct 1 will be allowing entry with proof of negative test, I have started to look at possible testing sites in the Santa Cruz/San Jose vicinity because that's where I will be prior to flight departure.

So far, no success. Now I am imagining Maui open for inbound, but me not able to get tested. What to do?

Look into Urgent Care centers. That's where we have gotten tests done a couple of times here outside of Los Angeles.

 

[csodjd]

However now they have also moved back all the way back to the middle of December which is the start of the Christmas Season and the HGVC Timeshare Premium Event Weeks 51 & 52.

It's not clear that they have committed to moving back to at least that time, though it is true you cannot now book sooner. But, as you know, I just recently did book in Oct/Nov, and I've not received any notice from HGVC or anyone else advising that the hotel would be closed and our reservation is canceled. Thus, there is certainly some ambiguity or uncertainty. They aren't taking new reservations, but also aren't cancelling existing ones.

 

[csodjd]

Exactly - the Lt. Gov. has always been more reasonable about reopening IMHO. The Gov. is a different story. . . .

Can't help but wonder if his attitude will change now that he's infected and in quarantine.

 

[Fredward]

One more issue for consideration. For those of us that have had to cancel reservations for 2020, we have a huge amount of airline credits for our family of 9. We had plans to fly from the west coast on Hawaiian and Alaskan airlines, which don't serve our east coast airports. If we can't go to Hawaii, where do we go?

 

[geoand]

We traveled to Hawaii yearly since 1990’s. Canceled our March 2020 trip & don’t see us going there in 2021

 

[TheHolleys87]

We have our 2 deeded weeks reserved for 2021 December, and I’m holding on to them planning to use one to replace the July 2020 trip we had to cancel.

 

[bnoble]

We have three weeks planned in late December /early January 2021. If it is possible to avoid a quarantine with a negative test I think we would be willing to fly based on what we know now in terms of risks (flight transmission seems relatively rare from what I can tell) particularly given the airlines’ insistence on mask compliance these days.

 

[csodjd]

I flew a few weeks back from Los Angeles to Charlotte, then drove to Pinehurst, then back. My experience was this: the ONLY part of the trip that in my view was of any concern was getting from the parking lot to the terminal. In my case it was an empty van, just me and two other people. But I've heard of other times where that bus/van was moderately filled. Its small and "indoors" (though with masks). Beyond that, the airport was very quiet, TSA was pretty much empty, the Admirals club was quite empty, I had no concern at all of risk. (Lesson: have someone drop you off at the airport.) I was in First on the flight and never felt any particular risk there. There were, after all, only 1-2 people even border close to me, so hardly a crowd. And everyone wore a mask.

So all of that is to say, I don't see the trip to/from Hawaii as being particularly concerning, especially with everyone having just tested negative (which was not the case above).

Once one arrives in Hawaii, you can pretty much control and eliminate your risk yourself.

That said, I would not expect more than 10-20% of normal travel volume, at least not for the first 6 months after it opens. This group here is not a normal cross-section of travelers. We are a group that is particularly interested and tuned into Hawaii that have spent good money to buy a TS in Hawaii, etc. Of my group of friends with TS's in Hawaii, I'm the only one planning (hoping) to go any time soon.

 

[csodjd]

114 new cases reported today bringing the 7-day moving average down to 121.7 (106.7 in Honolulu). Infection rate down slightly to 2.3%. As long as it keep moving in this direction....

 

[Tamaradarann]

It's not clear that they have committed to moving back to at least that time, though it is true you cannot now book sooner. But, as you know, I just recently did book in Oct/Nov, and I've not received any notice from HGVC or anyone else advising that the hotel would be closed and our reservation is canceled. Thus, there is certainly some ambiguity or uncertainty. They aren't taking new reservations, but also aren't cancelling existing ones.

I checked and the 5 Hotel buildings are also not taking reservations. I know you know how big the Hilton Hawaiian Village is and, therefore, how costly and manpower intenstive the operation is to operate. Do you really think that they not taking reservations right now for any of the 8 buildings and they are going to open the campus for you and the few people that may have reservations right now?

 

[csodjd]

I checked and the 5 Hotel buildings are also not taking reservations. I know you know how big the Hilton Hawaiian Village is and, therefore, how costly and manpower intenstive the operation is to operate. Do you really think that they not taking reservations right now for any of the 8 buildings and they are going to open the campus for you and the few people that may have reservations right now?

All I know is that on Sept. 4 they were taking reservations and they have not canceled the one I made. I suspect, like many others, they are waiting a few more days to make a final decision based on what the Governor decides this week.

 

[frank808]

I have a place holder using the free reservation for this year with check in on Nov 28 at Lagoon. HGVC haven't cancelled it yet either.

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[canesfan]

We have a trip scheduled for the end of February. Crossing our fingers quarantine will be lifted. Definitely going is it’s just a Covid test.


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[DaveNV]

We'd go. We have reservations on three islands for next May. I hope we don't have to cancel.

Dave

 

[amycurl]

Are local public county health departments not doing regular, free testing in CA? That seems so odd to me. Here, you can go onto the county health dept.'s website, find all of the free testing that they're offering (some during the day, some in the evening, six days a week,) plus all of the OTHER free testing sites available in the county (offered by the local hospital system; nonprofit health clinic; CVS; etc) and you can search by date.

Last week, on Tuesday morning, we learned that we would have the opportunity to host my in-laws last night (who have not seen ANY of their grandchildren in 9 months.) Went on the website, found information for a drive-thru, no appointment, no pre-registration free testing site for Wednesday morning (that would also test kids under 18) that was less than 10 minutes from our house. We arrived just minutes before they opened at 8 am on Wednesday, and there were five cars in front of us. Stayed in our car the whole time, regular nasal swab (no brain swab.) Arrived back home before 8:30 am in time for school and work commitments. It was a LabCorp test, and we had the results in our patient portal in less than 36 hours. The local hospital system hosted it; I am sure that they probably charged our insurance, but it would have been free if we didn't have insurance. Both times we have been tested, we were easily able to find sites on our local health department's website.

Easily available testing for any one who wants it, with 24-48 hour turnaround time, and robust contact tracing--in addition to masking, avoiding crowds, and people indoors--is what it will take for us to be able to live full lives in the "new reality" in lieu of a vaccine any time soon.

 

[TravelTime]

We have a reservation to go to Kauai next summer. As long as there is no quarantine and planes are flying, we will go.

 

[controller1]

We have a trip scheduled for the end of February. Crossing our fingers quarantine will be lifted. Definitely going is it’s just a Covid test.


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We also have two weeks scheduled beginning Feb 27th. Keeping our fingers crossed.

 

[alwysonvac]

Here’s the 3rd Quarter forecast from Hawaii’s Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (link)

Hawaii will welcome 2.9 million visitors in 2020, a decrease of 71.9 percent from the 2019 level.
Visitor arrivals will increase to 7.2 million in 2021, 8.3 million in 2022, and 9.4 million in 2023.
Visitor spending will decrease 67.8 percent in 2020, then will increase 109.1 percent in 2021, 18.8 percent in 2022, and 14.7 percent in 2023.

 

[alwysonvac]

We’re planning to visit Hawaii next year.

 

[csodjd]

Are local public county health departments not doing regular, free testing in CA? That seems so odd to me. Here, you can go onto the county health dept.'s website, find all of the free testing that they're offering (some during the day, some in the evening, six days a week,) plus all of the OTHER free testing sites available in the county (offered by the local hospital system; nonprofit health clinic; CVS; etc) and you can search by date.

Last week, on Tuesday morning, we learned that we would have the opportunity to host my in-laws last night (who have not seen ANY of their grandchildren in 9 months.) Went on the website, found information for a drive-thru, no appointment, no pre-registration free testing site for Wednesday morning (that would also test kids under 18) that was less than 10 minutes from our house. We arrived just minutes before they opened at 8 am on Wednesday, and there were five cars in front of us. Stayed in our car the whole time, regular nasal swab (no brain swab.) Arrived back home before 8:30 am in time for school and work commitments. It was a LabCorp test, and we had the results in our patient portal in less than 36 hours. The local hospital system hosted it; I am sure that they probably charged our insurance, but it would have been free if we didn't have insurance. Both times we have been tested, we were easily able to find sites on our local health department's website.

Easily available testing for any one who wants it, with 24-48 hour turnaround time, and robust contact tracing--in addition to masking, avoiding crowds, and people indoors--is what it will take for us to be able to live full lives in the "new reality" in lieu of a vaccine any time soon.

They do. There's no free county health dept test site close to me so I've gone to a local urgent care. I went with checkbook in hand -- they said it was $150 -- but they said no, they'll bill my insurance. They ended up getting about $120 from my insurance. Questionable business plan.