[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[Tamaradarann]

Remember that one of the issues that they have had is large spreader events at beach parties, so that is the behavior that they are targeting.

By prohibiting more than 2 people sitting within 6 feet of each other would certainly target that also and allow for couples to sit and enjoy the beach together.

 

[Pathways]

Hawaii has been trying to contract with a company to provide the tests, so that verified test results can be sent directly to Hawaii. They originally tried to contract with CVS, but like the the rest of California, CVS couldn't acquire enough tests. They are trying to avoid a piecemeal approach, because it's difficult and time consuming to verify dozens of different forms of test results printed on papers clutched in visitors' grubby hands, which may or may not be authentic.

Why does HI need to reinvent the wheel? Aruba has it down. All the test data has to be loaded electronically before arrival. The numbers are clearly lower, but the process is the same. The test must be taken 72 hours before the flight departs for Aruba.

The arrival numbers would be fairly low at first anyway, which would allow them to work out any kinks and ramp up.

 

[csodjd]

Hawaii has been trying to contract with a company to provide the tests, so that verified test results can be sent directly to Hawaii. They originally tried to contract with CVS, but like the the rest of California, CVS couldn't acquire enough tests. They are trying to avoid a piecemeal approach, because it's difficult and time consuming to verify dozens of different forms of test results printed on papers clutched in visitors' grubby hands, which may or may not be authentic.

And that makes total sense. However, it may also be a bar they can't get over. Again, just my opinion, but if they can get tourists in there safely they probably need to start doing it, even if it's not optimum convenience. I can certainly imagine a feasible but less sophisticated system where tourists go onto a website, fill out their demographic info, upload their test results, and that's then available for authorities upon arrival.

 

[JIMinNC]

Remember that one of the issues that they have had is large spreader events at beach parties, so that is the behavior that they are targeting.

But the people who flaunt social distancing guidelines at beach parties are likely just going to move those parties to private property or indoors, places that are just as likely, or more likely, to spread infections.

I watched two televised college football games on Saturday - one without fans and one with a stadium at about 25-30% capacity. The crowd shots of the game that allowed fans showed most people reasonably separated into smallish family/friend groups separated by several empty seats or rows. It did appear that in some of the student sections, however, the kids were not really social distancing and mask use was very mixed. But the most revealing "crowd shots" were from the game without fans - ESPN broadcast social media live streams from fans watching the game from their homes, apartments, or dormitories. These shots showed big groups of people inside drinking and partying with absolutely no mask use. I couldn't help but think the people attending the game with fans in an outdoor stadium were at much lower risk for spreading all kinds of infections than those folks at game parties in their homes. People are going to do what people are going to do, and you can't usually regulate bad choices.

I think the anti-beach rules that have been propagated around the world since spring are some of the least productive anti-virus measures. I'm just thankful our beach condo is in S.C. where the beach restrictions have been less strict. We've been able to spend many wonderful days on the beach this summer and are looking forward to more this fall.

 

[DeniseM]

[Redacted by DeniseM]

 

[csodjd]

But the people who flaunt social distancing guidelines at beach parties are likely just going to move those parties to private property or indoors, places that are just as likely, or more likely, to spread infections.

I watched two televised college football games on Saturday - one without fans and one with a stadium at about 25-30% capacity. The crowd shots of the game that allowed fans showed most people reasonably separated into smallish family/friend groups separated by several empty seats or rows. It did appear that in some of the student sections, however, the kids were not really social distancing and mask use was very mixed. But the most revealing "crowd shots" were from the game without fans - ESPN broadcast social media live streams from fans watching the game from their homes, apartments, or dormitories. These shots showed big groups of people inside drinking and partying with absolutely no mask use. I couldn't help but think the people attending the game with fans in an outdoor stadium were at much lower risk for spreading all kinds of infections than those folks at game parties in their homes. People are going to do what people are going to do, and you can't usually regulate bad choices.

I think the anti-beach rules that have been propagated around the world since spring are some of the least productive ant-virus measures. I'm just thankful our beach condo is in S.C. where the beach restrictions have been less strict. We've been able to spend many wonderful days on the beach this summer and are looking forward to more this fall.

Here in California we can't play golf in a fivesome. Four is okay. Five, too many. We can ride four, five, even six people together in a car for an hour to the course, but not five people in a group ON the course. There are plenty of rules that one can question. Bottom line is, if people would just CARE about not getting others sick we'd all be a lot better place right now.

 

[JIMinNC]

[Redacted at Jim's request.]

 

[DeniseM]

[After a meeting of the minds with Jim, we agreed to both edit our posts to get this thread back on track.]

 

[csodjd]

Just reported, 80 new cases on Monday, 70 on Oahu. That follows 114 yesterday, preceded by 131 and 167 and 169. There's no denying the "shut down" is having an impact.

 

[JIMinNC]

Addressing the original question - Will people actually go when they can? - I think the answer is clearly yes. Many of the Caribbean islands are open right now with a testing entry requirement, and if you follow airline news like I do, you will notice that airlines are adding flights to the Caribbean and Mexico. The Jet Blue CEO was on CNBC today and he said demand to the Caribbean is recovering rapidly as the islands open, so they are adjusting their flights to meet the demand. He praised Jamaica and Aruba specifically for their testing regimen. Jet Blue just announced a bunch of new Caribbean and Mexico flights from multiple cities and American is adding to their Mexico schedules. I was just looking the other day at the American schedules for their big hub here in Charlotte, and it looks like they are running almost all of their pre-Covid flight schedules to the Caribbean islands that are open, and to Mexico. In a few cases it seems they are actually running more flights from CLT to some of these places than pre-Covid, and they are adding flights to Puerto Vallarta from CLT to add to their Los Cabos and Cancun flights.

So, I think once Hawaii decides they are willing to open to tourism, I think tourists will come, if the Caribbean experience is any indication.

Slightly off topic but related...as bad as the travel industry has been hit by this, I was surprised to read that for October, American Airlines will be operating almost 500 daily departures out of their CLT hub on peak days. While down from their 700 daily flights in February, operating roughly 70% of their pre-Covid flight numbers isn't too shabby.

 

[magmue]

An excellent interactive overview article in the NY Times today on different strategies taken by various countries and states to prevent resurgences. They spend some time specifically comparing and contrasting Hawaii and Alaska's approaches.
I think NYT Covid coverage is still free to all?

 

[csodjd]

Just reported, 80 new cases on Monday, 70 on Oahu. That follows 114 yesterday, preceded by 131 and 167 and 169. There's no denying the "shut down" is having an impact.

To follow up---

7-day moving average is now 118 cases (well below the 150 threshold the Lt. Gov. says they can handle). 7-day positive testing rate remains at a low 2.2%.

Seems the Governor is now in a bit of a tough call situation. The data seems to clearly support allowing the Oct. 1 date to stand. However, the impact of Labor Day weekend won't be known for another 1-2 weeks. He probably needs to decide to open Oct 1, or extend to Nov 1, sooner than that. It's only 16 days away to Oct. 1. Will there be a Labor Day spike? One would hope not given the orders that were in place, plus the testing that's been done this past week (which would catch and contain cases arsing from Labor Day). I'm guessing rates stay low and even drop a bit further. I'd also call it 50-50 whether, out of an "abundance of caution," he'll delay to Nov. 1.

 

[csodjd]

An excellent interactive overview article in the NY Times today on different strategies taken by various countries and states to prevent resurgences. They spend some time specifically comparing and contrasting Hawaii and Alaska's approaches.
I think NYT Covid coverage is still free to all?

Here are some quotes out of that article:

But Hawaii did what Alaska did not: enforce its quarantine. On arrival, visitors had to identify their hotel, and the authorities called the hotel to make sure guests abided by the lockdown. Sometimes, the government called visitors or checked their social media. Hotel employees and Hawaii residents also alerted the authorities about violators. Nearly 200 people have been arrested for breaking quarantine. Unfortunately, this system was much weaker than in places like Taiwan or South Korea, and eventually enough cases entered Oahu to spur an outbreak in August. ... That could be because, in the end, only an estimated 40 percent of Hawaii’s visitors fully respected the state’s measures for their two full weeks of quarantine, based on analysis of anonymized cell phone records of travelers provided by Cuebiq. Hawaii’s quarantine is not airtight.

In the United States, such a system could be simple: All people traveling to a state requiring a quarantine would fill out a form before coming in, detailing their travel plans, their quarantine location over the next two weeks, and how to contact them to confirm they are complying. The policy would be enforced through random checks and fines, or through an app visitors would be required to place on their phones to track their whereabouts. (This of course raises privacy concerns.) They could shorten the quarantine with negative P.C.R. tests, ideally at the time of entry and four days after. Measures could be adapted to the type of visitor and the situation at their place of origin.

 

[DannyTS]

To follow up---

7-day moving average is now 118 cases (well below the 150 threshold the Lt. Gov. says they can handle). 7-day positive testing rate remains at a low 2.2%.

View attachment 26562

Seems the Governor is now in a bit of a tough call situation. The data seems to clearly support allowing the Oct. 1 date to stand. However, the impact of Labor Day weekend won't be known for another 1-2 weeks. He probably needs to decide to open Oct 1, or extend to Nov 1, sooner than that. It's only 16 days away to Oct. 1. Will there be a Labor Day spike? One would hope not given the orders that were in place, plus the testing that's been done this past week (which would catch and contain cases arsing from Labor Day). I'm guessing rates stay low and even drop a bit further. I'd also call it 50-50 whether, out of an "abundance of caution," he'll delay to Nov. 1.

Out of an abundance of caution he did not open in July when they had 30 cases a day.

For the sake of the argument let's say they open in November. Is there any guarantee they will not close again few weeks later?

 

[DannyTS]

Here are some quotes out of that article:

But Hawaii did what Alaska did not: enforce its quarantine. On arrival, visitors had to identify their hotel, and the authorities called the hotel to make sure guests abided by the lockdown. Sometimes, the government called visitors or checked their social media. Hotel employees and Hawaii residents also alerted the authorities about violators. Nearly 200 people have been arrested for breaking quarantine. Unfortunately, this system was much weaker than in places like Taiwan or South Korea, and eventually enough cases entered Oahu to spur an outbreak in August. ... That could be because, in the end, only an estimated 40 percent of Hawaii’s visitors fully respected the state’s measures for their two full weeks of quarantine, based on analysis of anonymized cell phone records of travelers provided by Cuebiq. Hawaii’s quarantine is not airtight.

In the United States, such a system could be simple: All people traveling to a state requiring a quarantine would fill out a form before coming in, detailing their travel plans, their quarantine location over the next two weeks, and how to contact them to confirm they are complying. The policy would be enforced through random checks and fines, or through an app visitors would be required to place on their phones to track their whereabouts. (This of course raises privacy concerns.) They could shorten the quarantine with negative P.C.R. tests, ideally at the time of entry and four days after. Measures could be adapted to the type of visitor and the situation at their place of origin.

If the cell phone records are anonymized, how do they know they belong to travelers?

 

[Tamaradarann]

Out of an abundance of caution he did not open in July when they had 30 cases a day.

For the sake of the argument let's say they open in November. Is there any guarantee they will not close again few weeks later?

NO!

 

[dsmrp]

If the cell phone records are anonymized, how do they know they belong to travelers?

When we arrived at airport, they asked to see our cell phones, and then called the numbers we listed on our forms.

 

[Tamaradarann]

Here in California we can't play golf in a fivesome. Four is okay. Five, too many. We can ride four, five, even six people together in a car for an hour to the course, but not five people in a group ON the course. There are plenty of rules that one can question. Bottom line is, if people would just CARE about not getting others sick we'd all be a lot better place right now.

I agree with your point here but I must take exception to the Fivesome Example. A Foursome has been the standard for golf parties for as long as I know which goes back to the early 60's and I would guess it has been the standard way before that. It has nothing to do with the Coronavirus. Furthermore, it is important not to have more than Four to keep the game moving and not hold up the party that just finished the previous hole who wants to Tee Off and not have to wait for 5 golfers playing in front of them. On the courses that I have played starters will break up a Fivesome into a Threesome and a Twosome and place singles and doubles with these two groups.

 

[DannyTS]

When we arrived at airport, they asked to see our cell phones, and then called the numbers we listed on our forms.

Are you saying Hawaii has shared your information with Cuebiq?

 

[csodjd]

Out of an abundance of caution he did not open in July when they had 30 cases a day.

For the sake of the argument let's say they open in November. Is there any guarantee they will not close again few weeks later?

What do they say, the only guarantees are death and taxes....

 

[csodjd]

I agree with your point here but I must take exception to the Fivesome Example. A Foursome has been the standard for golf parties for as long as I know which goes back to the early 60's and I would guess it has been the standard way before that. It has nothing to do with the Coronavirus. Furthermore, it is important not to have more than Four to keep the game moving and not hold up the party that just finished the previous hole who wants to Tee Off and not have to wait for 5 golfers playing in front of them. On the courses that I have played starters will break up a Fivesome into a Threesome and a Twosome and place singles and doubles with these two groups.

Eh, that’s silly. We play six routinely (pre-COVID) and never exceed 3:45, often done in 3:30.

 

[amycurl]

...death, taxes....and dirty dishes in the sink, LOL.

 

[tompalm]

Gov. David Ige today said that he’s likely to delay for the third time the start of a pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism in Hawaii.

The testing program would allow travelers who have taken an approved COVID-19 test within 72 hours of traveling to Hawaii to bypass a mandatory 14-day self-quarantine for out-of state passengers that’s been in place since March 26.

The plan, which was first announced in June, was originally going to launch Aug. 1, then Ige pushed it back to Sept. 1 and then Oct. 1 at the earliest.

“Just talking with many in the industry, it will probably not be Oct. 1,” Ige said today during an interview with “Spotlight Hawaii,” the Star-Advertiser’s Facebook Live show. “But in the next few days we’ll be providing a better plan for the scheduling of what those dates would look like.”

Travel demand for Hawaii has fallen significantly amid COVID-19 fears and tourism lockdowns.


Only 22,562 visitors flew to Hawaii in July, which last year was Hawaii’s best tourism month. Tourism arrivals to Hawaii declined 98% in July and 65% through the first seven months of the year.

It was February when Hawaii tourism last saw any gains, and hardships are mounting as the tourism lockdown that started in March has headed into fall.

A mandatory 14-day quarantine remains in effect for out-of-state travelers to reduce the spread of COVID-19. A partial interisland quarantine also was reinstated on Aug. 11.

Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell, with Ige’s permission, recently extended a stay-at-home order, which began on Aug. 27 and is now slated to run through Sept. 23. The order is still strict, but parks, beaches and hiking trails have reopened to allow individuals to engage in solo activities, including reading, meditating, eating, jogging and sitting on the beach alone.

 

[echino]

Gov. Ige says pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism probably won’t begin Oct. 1

Gov. Ige says pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism probably won’t begin Oct. 1 | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

Gov. David Ige today said that he’s likely to delay for the third time the start of a pre-arrivals testing program to reopen tourism in Hawaii.

www.staradvertiser.com

What's interesting is the locals' comments under the article. A few weeks ago I remember seeing comments overwhelmingly is support of Ige and for closing Hawaii to tourists. It looks like it's now the opposite.

 

[jabberwocky]

Can't help but wonder if his attitude will change now that he's infected and in quarantine.

He doesn’t seem to be doing too badly. Probably wouldn’t have known that he had it if his staff member hadn’t tested positive.

Lt. Gov. Josh Green: 'I Don't Feel Differently At All'

The state's vocal COVID-19 medical liaison was diagnosed with COVID-19 on Friday. He's still doing his popular whiteboard video updates from his son's bedroom.

www.civilbeat.org