[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[1Kflyerguy]

Governor declines to set a date for reopening Hawaii tourism

In a candid, one-on-one interview with Hawaii News Now, Ige talked about why he’s holding off on setting any dates for rebooting tourism and why he expects foreign travelers may be coming here first.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

Interesting interview, I suspect the pressure to reopen will grow as the economic problems grow. My bet is there will be more federal stimulus, but i less certain about when and what that looks like.
With the Hawaii state government is talking about employee furloughs to cut costs, and the expanded unemployment ending at the end of July, pressure will definitely build.

I can understand why they may not want to set fixed dates or reopening, but many states setup a plan based hitting certain milestones. So far i have not seen something like that for Hawaii.

 

[Ken555]

Interesting interview, I suspect the pressure to reopen will grow as the economic problems grow. My bet is there will be more federal stimulus, but i less certain about when and what that looks like.
With the Hawaii state government is talking about employee furloughs to cut costs, and the expanded unemployment ending at the end of July, pressure will definitely build.

I can understand why they may not want to set fixed dates or reopening, but many states setup a plan based hitting certain milestones. So far i have not seen something like that for Hawaii.

I agree. Hawaii’s standards may simply be based on requirements for other regions to meet in order to visit. This interview implies, as does earlier reports, that opening up will be based on the relative risk of importing the virus. So far, California and many other areas of the country would not likely meet any such standard while Japan, New Zealand, and others would. This makes sense to me. Obviously, the financial impact for the closure/quarantine is huge.


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[Yellowfin]

I would be curious to know what the potential Japanese visitors think about travelling. On one hand, they may perceive Hawaii as low risk. On the other hand, the population in Japan is older and I assume they will not jump in the first plane to Hawaii since there is still a risk, especially on the airports and in the air. If the number of visitors does not reach a critical mass, it may not be sufficient for a lot of businesses to be profitable.

 

[Ken555]

I would be curious to know what the potential Japanese visitors think about travelling. On one hand, they may perceive Hawaii as low risk. On the other hand, the population in Japan is older and I assume they will not jump in the first plane to Hawaii since there is still a risk, especially on the airports and in the air. If the number of visitors does not reach a critical mass, it may not be sufficient for a lot of businesses to be profitable.

I don’t know why you focus only on Japan (you’ve done this in several posts) but... it’s not just Japan. I think everyone recognizes that anything less than a complete opening to all regions will result in financial hardship for Hawaii. Short of welcoming regions with continuing significant daily infection rates, what would you suggest?


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[Yellowfin]

They have mentioned Japan in every interview I listened to. They think it may be an ideal country to start with because it brings 30% of the revenue with just 20% of the visitors. But because 75% of the population in Japan is over 65, they may not get the number of "safe" tourists they are hoping for in order to make a difference to the local businesses.

 

[Ken555]

This is relevant.

https://www.hawaiitourismauthority.org/media/4166/2020-01-29-hawaii-visitor-statistics-released-for-december-2019.pdf

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[Ralph Sir Edward]

If I may slide slightly off-topic, expect a restdential real estate crash in Hawaii over the next 12+ months. If residents leave, thay can't take their homes with them. . . .

 

[1Kflyerguy]

They have mentioned Japan in every interview I listened to. They think it may be an ideal country to start with because it brings 30% of the revenue with just 20% of the visitors. But because 75% of the population in Japan is over 65, they may not get the number of "safe" tourists they are hoping for in order to make a difference to the local businesses.

Japan is the second largest market for Hawaii, after mainland US.

Currently Japan imposes a 14 day quarantine on people arriving from the US. I think for Hawaii's travel bubble plan to work they would have convince Japan to drop that requirement, or shift to a selective quarantine. Not sure how easy or difficult that might be, All of the other "travel bubbles" they keep referring to are between countries, not between specific cities or regions..

 

[Tamaradarann]

I think the problem will be getting people to come back to Hawaii because of the costs.
my wife is from Japan so we go often as well as Maui where I own a Westin timeshare. I read that tourism in japan dropped 99% due to their own restrictions. They Meaning the government are contemplating picking up half the cost of travel and accommodations to stimulate tourism.
I have a family of four. It’s already expensive enough for us to go from Los Angeles. If prices of air fare go up we just won’t go. Add all sorts of health checks and medical restrictions and I’ll just drive up the coast.
if more people feel this way especially Asian visitors then tourism may be in for a tough time for a while.

I don't think that the cost will be much more expensive to go to Hawaii than in the past unless the Government foolishly decides to raise the taxes that tourists primarily pay excessively. However, if Hawaii doesn't provide some end date on the 14 day quarantine people will start to spend their money in other locations. People usually plan vacations they don't decide a week before, lets go to Hawaii. I think Hawaii has already lost the peak summer vacation period. Next will be the peak Christmas/Winter period. Hawaii relies on tourist dollars. However, tourists can go other places for their summer vacations, their winter vacations, and all of their vacations.

 

[csodjd]

It appears to me that Hawaii's success in dealing with the virus may be its worst enemy in re-opening the islands for tourism. If their goal is to keep the virus to a minimum, it can be done with some measures in place. But in the absence of a stated goal, from their statements it seems they want to eradicate the virus completely and never get it back and that may be an impossible task since testing is not 100% accurate and it does not detect those that may catch the virus on the way to Hawaii. It is far more likely to catch the virus on the airport or on a plane than in your own home.

This article sort of speaks to that.

Las Vegas and Orlando are welcoming back tourists. Some ask: Why not Hawaii?

There’s no timetable for reopening the state's no. 1 industry, frustrating local businesses and unemployed workers.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

What still confuses me is why there would be such concern that they can't handle a theoretical 300 cases/day, and why they think that number is even plausible.

When they had 30,000 people per day coming in untested in February and into March, do they think they didn't have 300 cases coming in then? The health system handled it quite well. And that was before social distancing, masks, sanitizers, etc.

And they are NOT going to have anywhere near that 30k number coming in daily when they reopen, plus those coming will have some level, probably a high level, of screening (likely both testing and temperature checks) before entering. I don't care where you started your trip from, if you must get through pre-flight testing and temperature checks on arrival, it's fairly unlikely you'll be infected. Certainly less likely than in early March.

We forget that in the peak of the pandemic random surveillance testing in high-risk areas like NYC, LA, and Santa Clara only found ~5% (or less) were infected. So if 5% are infected (50 in 1000), and of that 5%, testing is 90% effective, that means very few travelers (5 in 1000) arriving would be infected. If 10,000 come in daily, that means 50 coming in. However, because infection rates appear to be notably higher in and among lower income individuals and those in elder care facilities, the true numbers would be far less than that. Not too many $35k/year workers are traveling to Hawaii this fall/winter!

 

[csodjd]

I don't think that the cost will be much more expensive to go to Hawaii than in the past unless the Government foolishly decides to raise the taxes that tourists primarily pay excessively. However, if Hawaii doesn't provide some end date on the 14 day quarantine people will start to spend their money in other locations. People usually plan vacations they don't decide a week before, lets go to Hawaii. I think Hawaii has already lost the peak summer vacation period. Next will be the peak Christmas/Winter period. Hawaii relies on tourist dollars. However, tourists can go other places for their summer vacations, their winter vacations, and all of their vacations.

With Vegas and Orlando/Disney opening up, that's a real concern. Even many of those that love Hawaii will say, well, we'll do that next year because they simply cannot make plans yet for Hawaii since Hawaii isn't giving people any ability to schedule a trip.

 

[csodjd]

I agree. Hawaii’s standards may simply be based on requirements for other regions to meet in order to visit. This interview implies, as does earlier reports, that opening up will be based on the relative risk of importing the virus. So far, California and many other areas of the country would not likely meet any such standard while Japan, New Zealand, and others would. This makes sense to me. Obviously, the financial impact for the closure/quarantine is huge.


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Seems to me it's hard and lends itself to easy miscalculation to rely on broad numbers based on new cases. First, there is the obvious: new cases is in significant part a function of testing. Hospitalizations is a better measure of relative risk as that's independent of testing. Second, infection risk is not evenly spread among a population. The highest risk people - elder care facilities and low wage workers, are also very unlikely to be traveling to Hawaii in 2020. And then, of course, there is population/per capita measures. The ENTIRE population of NZ (one of my favorite countries in the world BTW) is half of the city of Los Angeles.

And then there is one last thing that I hope they'll consider. Hawaii is part of America. I think they should bend over backwards to do the best they can for Americans. The idea that they will welcome in those from foreign countries but not those from America is, to me, troubling. Hawaii received about $4B in COVID relief money from the Federal government. They are getting about $21M for testing. Would be nice to use that to test American's. An analysis of 2010 data showed that Hawaii received the 4th most amount of Federal funding of all states per capita relative to the amount paid in.

So, even though it may be more challenging, I believe Hawaii should be trying to figure out how to get American's into Hawaii.

 

[amy241]

Seems to me it's hard and lends itself to easy miscalculation to rely on broad numbers based on new cases. First, there is the obvious: new cases is in significant part a function of testing. Hospitalizations is a better measure of relative risk as that's independent of testing. Second, infection risk is not evenly spread among a population. The highest risk people - elder care facilities and low wage workers, are also very unlikely to be traveling to Hawaii in 2020. And then, of course, there is population/per capita measures. The ENTIRE population of NZ (one of my favorite countries in the world BTW) is half of the city of Los Angeles.

And then there is one last thing that I hope they'll consider. Hawaii is part of America. I think they should bend over backwards to do the best they can for Americans. The idea that they will welcome in those from foreign countries but not those from America is, to me, troubling. Hawaii received about $4B in COVID relief money from the Federal government. They are getting about $21M for testing. Would be nice to use that to test American's. An analysis of 2010 data showed that Hawaii received the 4th most amount of Federal funding of all states per capita relative to the amount paid in.

So, even though it may be more challenging, I believe Hawaii should be trying to figure out how to get American's into Hawaii.

It troubles me too that they would not create a way for Americans to travel to Hawaii. And you wouldn’t believe the public comments on articles on Beat of Hawaii on this issue. Many people are simply outraged that they are not putting a plan into place to allow Americans to travel there and would instead give priority to Australia, New Zealand, Japan and Korea.

Hawaii Public Relations Nightmare as Media Frenzy Fuels Unrest

Global news outlets raise big concerns for Hawaii visitors.

beatofhawaii.com

Hawaii Visitors and Residents Whipsaw in 1,000 Comments

Hawaii still on a wild ride.

beatofhawaii.com

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Seems to me it's hard and lends itself to easy miscalculation to rely on broad numbers based on new cases. First, there is the obvious: new cases is in significant part a function of testing. Hospitalizations is a better measure of relative risk as that's independent of testing. Second, infection risk is not evenly spread among a population. The highest risk people - elder care facilities and low wage workers, are also very unlikely to be traveling to Hawaii in 2020. And then, of course, there is population/per capita measures. The ENTIRE population of NZ (one of my favorite countries in the world BTW) is half of the city of Los Angeles.

And then there is one last thing that I hope they'll consider. Hawaii is part of America. I think they should bend over backwards to do the best they can for Americans. The idea that they will welcome in those from foreign countries but not those from America is, to me, troubling. Hawaii received about $4B in COVID relief money from the Federal government. They are getting about $21M for testing. Would be nice to use that to test American's. An analysis of 2010 data showed that Hawaii received the 4th most amount of Federal funding of all states per capita relative to the amount paid in.

So, even though it may be more challenging, I believe Hawaii should be trying to figure out how to get American's into Hawaii.

As we are now seeing in the State of Washington, the decision about when to end control measures is a political decision, not a scientific decision. As I have posted previously, the pandemic will not end when medical professionals decide its over. It will end when as a society says we've had enough and we are willing to live with the whatever the risks are.

It's interesting the decision is being made, though, not by the "right-wing" red state governments. It's being made on the other side of the political spectrum, with George Floyd actions. Which seems to have put the blue state political leaders into a conundrum, leading them to decide that maybe social distancing isn't so necessary after all.

 

[csodjd]

As we are now seeing in the State of Washington, the decision about when to end control measures is a political decision, not a scientific decision. As I have posted previously, the pandemic will not end when medical professionals decide its over. It will end when as a society says we've had enough and we are willing to live with the whatever the risks are.

It's interesting the decision is being made, though, not by the "right-wing" red state governments. It's being made on the other side of the political spectrum, with George Floyd actions. Which seems to have put the blue state political leaders into a conundrum, leading them to decide that maybe social distancing isn't so necessary after all.

Well, as a medical professional, I'd say its way too early to know the impact of the lack of social distancing over the past couple of weeks. There's a bit of data, as the number of new cases has skyrocketed in a few states like Florida, Texas and Arizona, and some harder to recognize ones like Arkansas. But the meaningful measure will be hospitalizations, and that lags 10-25 days behind infection. My guess is that there won't be a big spike in that because the people being infected are not the high risk groups (elderly), and health care workers are better protected now. But, we'll see.

The good news is that hospitals and health care workers are far better prepared today than they were in March. When a new infection arrives, leaders (medical and political) need to risk over-reaction because they don't know what they are dealing with, and err on the side of safety is necessary. Nobody knew back then that about 1/3 of cases were asymptomatic. Nursing homes were entirely unprepared. Etc. Not so today.

I don't think the Gov. of Hawaii is making a political decision to favor NZ, Aus, Japan and SK. It is an (imo unnecessary and inappropriate) extremely conservative decision based on science and health, but not necessarily based on the fact that June/July is not March/April. I believe we can generally open up business, etc., because of what we know today, not because the virus is gone.

 

[PigsDad]

What still confuses me is why there would be such concern that they can't handle a theoretical 300 cases/day, and why they think that number is even plausible.

When they had 30,000 people per day coming in untested in February and into March, do they think they didn't have 300 cases coming in then? The health system handled it quite well. And that was before social distancing, masks, sanitizers, etc.

And they are NOT going to have anywhere near that 30k number coming in daily when they reopen, plus those coming will have some level, probably a high level, of screening (likely both testing and temperature checks) before entering. I don't care where you started your trip from, if you must get through pre-flight testing and temperature checks on arrival, it's fairly unlikely you'll be infected. Certainly less likely than in early March.

We forget that in the peak of the pandemic random surveillance testing in high-risk areas like NYC, LA, and Santa Clara only found ~5% (or less) were infected. So if 5% are infected (50 in 1000), and of that 5%, testing is 90% effective, that means very few travelers (5 in 1000) arriving would be infected. If 10,000 come in daily, that means 50 coming in. However, because infection rates appear to be notably higher in and among lower income individuals and those in elder care facilities, the true numbers would be far less than that. Not too many $35k/year workers are traveling to Hawaii this fall/winter!

Somewhere along the line, for many of those in authority (and many on TUG as well), the narrative for the shutdowns changed from the prevention of overwhelming the medical system to preventing any CV-19 transmission at all. Hawaii is the most extreme example of that mind shift. And as expected, most of those calling for continued shutdowns are older, more financially secure, and generally not in the workforce. You don't see / hear too many 20- or 30-somethings supporting the continuation of the shutdowns / restrictions.

Kurt

 

[Yellowfin]

Forget about visitors, the pace of opening the businesses is so slow, one would wonder what is the science behind it. They just announced that the restaurants on O'ahu will be allowed to open in 2 weeks. Why two weeks and not one? What difference does it make from a health care point of view? Probably none since they have so few cases. But if you are a business struggling to stay afloat, every additional day must feel like an eternity.

 

[slip]

Forget about visitors, the pace of opening the businesses is so slow, one would wonder what is the science behind it. They just announced that the restaurants on O'ahu will be allowed to open in 2 weeks. Why two weeks and not one? What difference does it make from a health care point of view? Probably none since they have so few cases. But if you are a business struggling to stay afloat, every additional day must feel like an eternity.

Restaurants open today on Oahu but they announced it about two weeks ago.

 

[Yellowfin]

Restaurants open today on Oahu but they announced it about two weeks ago.

correct, I meant bars, sorry about that.

Cheers: Bars on O'ahu re-open

www.kitv.com

 

[DeniseM]

Here's is something that I don't see anyone factoring in: You know who is eager to jump on a plane and go to Hawaii ASAP? Risk Takers. People who are less concerned about the Coronavirus, and may be cavalier about taking any precautions against catching it - or passing it. I don't want to sit next to that person on the plane. YMMV

 

[Tamaradarann]

Forget about visitors, the pace of opening the businesses is so slow, one would wonder what is the science behind it. They just announced that the restaurants on O'ahu will be allowed to open in 2 weeks. Why two weeks and not one? What difference does it make from a health care point of view? Probably none since they have so few cases. But if you are a business struggling to stay afloat, every additional day must feel like an eternity.

I agree it seems that since the existing people in Hawaii have really no virus that you could open everything up for them right now. The real challenge is going to be when you add tourists in droves when you no longer have the 14 day quarantine. It seems to me that if you opened up everything right now for the existing people perhaps the number of cases and hospitalizations would go up in single didgit numbers. So why not do it NOW.

However, unless you have very strict rules and efficient testing when you remove the 14 day quarantine and have thousands of tourists a day coming in the number of cases will go up in double didgit numbers or perhaps even triple didgit numbers. I concur with the caution on the removal of the 14 day quarantine, but I don't see dragging on opening up for the existing Hawaii population.

 

[CalGalTraveler]

The 4 Planned Phases Of Hawaii Restarting Tourism

We’ve written before about how cautious Hawaii has been in allowing tourism to start back up. With just 653 confirmed cases of COVID-19, they tie, at 17, with Montana and…

yourmileagemayvary.net

 

[PigsDad]

Here's is something that I don't see anyone factoring in: You know who is eager to jump on a plane and go to Hawaii ASAP? Risk Takers.

That's one opinion. Another is that it is the logical thinkers who do not get caught up in the irrational fear. The health risk to a younger (<40) person is insignificant, and on the order of the health risk of driving to the airport.

Kurt

 

[DeniseM]

Call it whatever you want: IMNSHO, the first visitors to visit Hawaii may have a higher incidence of C-19, because they may not feel that they are at risk to get the Coronavirus, and therefore, may not have been taking precautions before their trip.

 

[Yellowfin]

One can also make the opposite argument. The islands are virtually C-19 free at this moment so better to travel now before more visitors can bring more risk.