[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[cerralee]

Well it looks like my grandson won’t be visiting with us this summer. We were hoping that travel back into Hawaii wouldn’t involve a quarantine period by July. Since it’s been extended till the end of June and who knows how long after it looks like the trip is a no go. My daughter was planning on booking one ways in and getting the return sometime in July. She would be going back and then be able to work as she would be having grandma and grandpa providing childcare. The 14 day quarantine issue and how long it’s going to stay in play messes any planning up big time. He was really looking forward to this trip. He has a very small outside area and enjoys all things grandpa and grandma so much. He spent the last two summers with us and it’s all he’s talked about since he left last summer. He stays about eight weeks. Hoping they come out with a testing option so something can be salvaged.

 

[Yellowfin]

one of the problems with most Covid tests available to the public is that the results come back in few days. CVS for example mentions of their website that the results come back "typically" in 2-4 days. If, as expected, Hawaii demands a test taken 3 days or less before the departure, the results may not come back in time for the trip

 

[csodjd]

I am wondering if companies would not reevaluate their long term plans in Hawaii given they may perceive the current developments not very business friendly.

Maybe, but the bigger threat I see is that if Hawaii is unwilling or unable to bring back tourism pretty quickly and get people working there may be many Hawaiians forced to leave the state and go where they can find a job, or simply find a job outside the tourism industry. Either way it can result in the tourism industry unable to find employees.

 

[csodjd]

one of the problems with most Covid tests available to the public is that the results come back in few days. CVS for example mentions of their website that the results come back "typically" in 2-4 days. If, as expected, Hawaii demands a test taken 3 days or less before the departure, the results may not come back in time for the trip

My daughter was tested last week at an urgent care in Los Angeles. Not the free County testing, we paid cash for it. Test was done Wednesday morning (nasopharynx swab). They promised results by Friday. They made it, barely... she got the results about 4:30pm on Friday. IF we were flying to Hawaii on Saturday, that would have been very stressful not knowing if we could go until late Friday.

However, if the Abbott rapid test shores itself up and produces good results, that gives an answer in 15 min or less (5 min for positive, 15 min for negative). That test/device is really the key.

 

[Yellowfin]

My daughter was tested last week at an urgent care in Los Angeles. Not the free County testing, we paid cash for it. Test was done Wednesday morning (nasopharynx swab). They promised results by Friday. They made it, barely... she got the results about 4:30pm on Friday. IF we were flying to Hawaii on Saturday, that would have been very stressful not knowing if we could go until late Friday.

However, if the Abbott rapid test shores itself up and produces good results, that gives an answer in 15 min or less (5 min for positive, 15 min for negative). That test/device is really the key.

Imagine if you fly Sunday or Monday, if they do not give the results during the weekend (I do not know if that is the case), it may be even more stressful.

 

[Ken555]

Too much speculation.


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[Yellowfin]

no, we are simply discussing the problems they have to overcome.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I'm not sure I see much distinction between taxing flights and taxing the location the people flying stay in. Flights tax each visitor a single amount irrespective of length of stay. Taxing hotels and timeshares taxes each family/visitor unit based on length of stay, or, in the case of timeshares, since that goes into MF, based on ownership type. That's all more form than substance.

The issue is with raising timeshare and hotel property taxes disproportionately higher than other properties to make up the revenue deficit that has been exacerbated by the 14 day quarantine which has discouraged (if not in reality prevented) timeshare owners from using their property or raising the TAT disproportionately which is a tax that only timeshare and hotel occupants pay. I feel that that would be adding insult to injury to do that.

Taxing the flights to the islands is a tax that both visitors as well as residents that travel would pay.

By the way it just came to me a few hours ago that I have advocating not raising the property taxes on timeshares and hotels and the TAT on timeshare and hotel stays for the benefit of other owners and tourists. I don't own any timeshares in Hawaii and now that I own a condo in Waikiki so I wouldn't be spending extra on property taxes or TAT. Therefore, I will leave this battle for others to fight or advocate for or against. If they double the property tax and TAT on timeshare stays I won't be paying it, you will.

 

[csodjd]

The issue is with raising timeshare and hotel property taxes disproportionately higher than other properties to make up the revenue deficit that has been exacerbated by the 14 day quarantine which has discouraged (if not in reality prevented) timeshare owners from using their property or raising the TAT disproportionately which is a tax that only timeshare and hotel occupants pay. I feel that that would be adding insult to injury to do that.

Taxing the flights to the islands is a tax that both visitors as well as residents that travel would pay.

By the way it just came to me a few hours ago that I have advocating not raising the property taxes on timeshares and hotels and the TAT on timeshare and hotel stays for the benefit of other owners and tourists. I don't own any timeshares in Hawaii and now that I own a condo in Waikiki so I wouldn't be spending extra on property taxes or TAT. Therefore, I will leave this battle for others to fight or advocate for or against. If they double the property tax and TAT on timeshare stays I won't be paying it, you will.

All I know is that they need to start trying to bring tourism dollars back to the islands before unemployment money runs out and all their tourism industry employees are forced to leave Hawaii to find a job.

 

[Tamaradarann]

All I know is that they need to start trying to bring tourism dollars back to the islands before unemployment money runs out and all their tourism industry employees are forced to leave Hawaii to find a job.

On that we totally agree. I believe that testing of incoming arrivals is the major hang up right now. I have been saying for months now that they should be shooting for July 1 to remove the 14 day quarantine to take advantage of the summer vacation peak vacation season. I don't think they are on that page. Perhaps they are focusing on a September 1 for a softer tourist opening with mostly adults. We are still booked for both a late September and November return to Honolulu. However, as summer starts with the 14 day quarantine still in place, we are looking more favorably on a November return. I do have a concern about a fall resurgence of the virus around the world which may disturb a November plan.

 

[csodjd]

On that we totally agree. I believe that testing of incoming arrivals is the major hang up right now. I have been saying for months now that they should be shooting for July 1 to remove the 14 day quarantine to take advantage of the summer vacation peak vacation season. I don't think they are on that page. Perhaps they are focusing on a September 1 for a softer tourist opening with mostly adults. We are still booked for both a late September and November return to Honolulu. However, as summer starts with the 14 day quarantine still in place, we are looking more favorably on a November return. I do have a concern about a fall resurgence of the virus around the world which may disturb a November plan.

I was looking at some data yesterday. Based on the Univ. of Washington data, Hawaii LEADS all states with the lowest per capita case rate and lowest per capita death rate. And that's despite about 30,000 people per day coming into the state throughout February and into early March.

That to me suggests that Hawaii is not a particularly welcome environment for the Coronavirus, making spread more difficult. Warm weather. Lots of sun. Lots of outdoor activities and fewer large-scale indoor ones. The evidence shows that it becomes much easier to become infected when you are indoors and an infected person is filling the air with virus, creating a sufficient load to spread the infection. Same situation outdoors and the air doesn't have enough virus to create infection. They say, for instance, driving with a window open greatly reduces the risk of becoming infected by a contagious passenger compared with the windows closed. Hawaii is, in many ways, one big car with the windows open.

I've got reservations starting Oct. 26, with a wedding to attend Nov. 7 in Maui. My best GUESS is that we'll be able to go to Hawaii, but there will be limits still in place on the size of gatherings and the wedding will have to be moved, again.

 

[Tamaradarann]

I was looking at some data yesterday. Based on the Univ. of Washington data, Hawaii LEADS all states with the lowest per capita case rate and lowest per capita death rate. And that's despite about 30,000 people per day coming into the state throughout February and into early March.

That to me suggests that Hawaii is not a particularly welcome environment for the Coronavirus, making spread more difficult. Warm weather. Lots of sun. Lots of outdoor activities and fewer large-scale indoor ones. The evidence shows that it becomes much easier to become infected when you are indoors and an infected person is filling the air with virus, creating a sufficient load to spread the infection. Same situation outdoors and the air doesn't have enough virus to create infection. They say, for instance, driving with a window open greatly reduces the risk of becoming infected by a contagious passenger compared with the windows closed. Hawaii is, in many ways, one big car with the windows open.

I've got reservations starting Oct. 26, with a wedding to attend Nov. 7 in Maui. My best GUESS is that we'll be able to go to Hawaii, but there will be limits still in place on the size of gatherings and the wedding will have to be moved, again.

That is some interesting thought about open air events. We do go a few open air events and restaurants. However, almost all of the live theaters, as well as the Doris Duke Theatre at the Honolulu Museum of Art;, the Blaisdale Concert Hall, Arena, and Exhibition Hall; and the Blue Note are indoor venues. Also two of our favorite outdoor restauants closed in early 2020 Gordon Biersch and Bubba Gumps.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

That to me suggests that Hawaii is not a particularly welcome environment for the Coronavirus, making spread more difficult. Warm weather. Lots of sun. Lots of outdoor activities and fewer large-scale indoor ones.

A possible hypothesis. To test that hypothesis Hawaii data should be compared with data from similar locales.

Or you could look at a country that has the appropriate diversity in climate. Perhaps a country such as Ecuador, where COVID-19 is ravaging sunny and warm Guayaquil, with the bodies of victims literally rotting in the streets, while colder and temperate Quito is much less affected.

I'm not saying you are incorrect. What I am saying is the drawing inferences of this type require examining more than one example. The typical process for doing this is to see a case such as Hawaii, develop a hypothesis based on the example, then identify other examples to test the hypothesis.

 

[csodjd]

A possible hypothesis. To test that hypothesis Hawaii data should be compared with data from similar locales.

Or you could look at a country that has the appropriate diversity in climate. Perhaps a country such as Ecuador, where COVID-19 is ravaging sunny and warm Guayaquil, with the bodies of victims literally rotting in the streets, while colder and temperate Quito is much less affected.

I'm not saying you are incorrect. What I am saying is the drawing inferences of this type require examining more than one example. The typical process for doing this is to see a case such as Hawaii, develop a hypothesis based on the example, then identify other examples to test the hypothesis.

Yes, I do understand science, data analysis, and epidemiology. (And no, you cannot compare it to an entirely different socio-economic environment, or a different standard of living. THAT is apples to oranges. And, yes, there are many confounding variables.) But all you're speaking of is the explanation for the data. I don't really care much about that in this context. The explanation I gave is entirely speculative to be sure. Nonetheless, whether it is due to space aliens guarding the Hawaiian islands, the color of the street signs, or something else, the fact is, Hawaii has had the lowest per capita infection rate and death rate in the United States. And given it's tourism and resulting relatively high exposure risk as a result, SOMETHING has resulted in less infection there than Wyoming, North Dakota, Montana, Idaho, and all the other states, including those with relatively low population densities. A reasonable inference then is that, with reasonable protective/mitigating measures, it will likely remain one of the, if not the, safest places even when tourism returns.

Or, put another way, from a tourists standpoint, all other things being equal, I'd be more comfortable going to Hawaii on vacation than Charlotte, or New York, or almost anywhere else in the US.

 

[csodjd]

That is some interesting thought about open air events. We do go a few open air events and restaurants. However, almost all of the live theaters, as well as the Doris Duke Theatre at the Honolulu Museum of Art;, the Blaisdale Concert Hall, Arena, and Exhibition Hall; and the Blue Note are indoor venues. Also two of our favorite outdoor restauants closed in early 2020 Gordon Biersch and Bubba Gumps.

Here is some info on the topic. The key is the dilution of the virus, keeping the viral exposure down.

Op-ed: How to protect from coronavirus in your car

Keeping your car windows open a crack is an easy way to minimize the risk of COVID-19 transmission when you’re driving, according to experts from Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. COVID-19…

www.hsph.harvard.edu

 

[Ken555]

The explanation I gave is entirely speculative to be sure.

Yup.

Nonetheless, whether it is due to space aliens guarding the Hawaiian islands […]

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[csodjd]

Yup.



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You see my point. Putting aside the issues related to GETTING to Hawaii, inasmuch as Hawaii had the lowest case and death rates, and certainly had FAR more people pouring in from all over the world than Montana, North Dakota, and Idaho and the others like them had in February and early March, there is --something-- about Hawaii other than the exposure to infected people that resulted in the virus not spreading like it did in any other state in the US and therefore it's probably the safest place in the US to be even after tourism opens up.

 

[Yellowfin]

Alaska Journal of Commerce

www.alaskajournal.com

 

[Yellowfin]

Hawaii Tourism Finished? HTA Chief about to escape to Colorado - Hawaii News Online | Independent | Trusted

Hawaii News : Local with a global view with a focus on the Hawaii Travel and Tourism world.

hawaiinews.online

 

[PigsDad]

"There’s simply no light at the end of the tunnel, they said."

The Pandemic Is Proving Too Much For Some Big Island Businesses

Kona is emerging from weeks of being shutdown but already the business landscape is looking different.

www.civilbeat.org

Kurt

 

[Tamaradarann]

Alaska Journal of Commerce

www.alaskajournal.com

This article is saying that Alaska is already doing what Hawaii is proposing to open up tourism to those outside of Hawaii. I believe this can work except that there needs to be more teeth and enforcement in the 14 day quarantine. There have been cases of people violating the quarantine with only a few visitors coming each day. If the 14 quarantine is lifted for those that test negative for the virus, thousands will start to come each day it will be impossible to keep track of those that MUST be quarantined and there will be even more violators.

Perhaps Hawaii needs to establish a 14 day QUARANTINE AREA(would need to be on Oahu) that those that insist on coming without a negative test will be escorted to. The Convention Center? This doesn't need to be nice comfortable accomodations and it can charge for food and delivery service that will need to be brought in. (There are plenty of people who need jobs that can assist with the food delivery service. Just like the existing 14 day quarantine it is not meant to encourage but to discourage people coming without a negative test.
When we were on Oahu in March there was a ship that had the virus. People were taken off the ship taht didn't have the virus and were escorted by private bus to the airport and put on a plane to go away.

 

[Yellowfin]

It appears to me that Hawaii's success in dealing with the virus may be its worst enemy in re-opening the islands for tourism. If their goal is to keep the virus to a minimum, it can be done with some measures in place. But in the absence of a stated goal, from their statements it seems they want to eradicate the virus completely and never get it back and that may be an impossible task since testing is not 100% accurate and it does not detect those that may catch the virus on the way to Hawaii. It is far more likely to catch the virus on the airport or on a plane than in your own home.

 

[Yellowfin]

Governor declines to set a date for reopening Hawaii tourism

In a candid, one-on-one interview with Hawaii News Now, Ige talked about why he’s holding off on setting any dates for rebooting tourism and why he expects foreign travelers may be coming here first.

www.hawaiinewsnow.com

 

[trexmdr]

I think the problem will be getting people to come back to Hawaii because of the costs.
my wife is from Japan so we go often as well as Maui where I own a Westin timeshare. I read that tourism in japan dropped 99% due to their own restrictions. They Meaning the government are contemplating picking up half the cost of travel and accommodations to stimulate tourism.
I have a family of four. It’s already expensive enough for us to go from Los Angeles. If prices of air fare go up we just won’t go. Add all sorts of health checks and medical restrictions and I’ll just drive up the coast.
if more people feel this way especially Asian visitors then tourism may be in for a tough time for a while.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

I think the problem will be getting people to come back to Hawaii because of the costs.
my wife is from Japan so we go often as well as Maui where I own a Westin timeshare. I read that tourism in japan dropped 99% due to their own restrictions. They Meaning the government are contemplating picking up half the cost of travel and accommodations to stimulate tourism.
I have a family of four. It’s already expensive enough for us to go from Los Angeles. If prices of air fare go up we just won’t go. Add all sorts of health checks and medical restrictions and I’ll just drive up the coast.
if more people feel this way especially Asian visitors then tourism may be in for a tough time for a while.

That sounds like what it was like when I was a boy, when airfare was so expensive that only "rich" people could fly. So for everybody else, going away on vacation meant loading people in the car and heading somewhere within driving distance.

My parents packed the six of us (M, D, four kids) into a 1954 Chevy Bel-Air. Three in the front seat, three in the back seat, and about one-fourth of the back seat was packed with supplies. Traveled from Minnesota to almost all of the National Parks in the Rocky Mountans.