[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[SmithOp]

I find the comments to this article are more interesting than the article itself. A number of people are very upset that Hawaii would open up to other countries ahead of US states which it is a part of:

As Desperation Ensues, Hawaiian Airlines Speaks on Restarting Tourism Now

Hawaii-bound travelers for later in 2020 and beyond increasingly frustrated and in need of answers.

beatofhawaii.com

Yes, those comments reflect the ignorance of the people posting them.

Hawaii absolutely has the right to impose rules about who can visit and the conditions of the visit, it has nothing to do with being part of US. They should read up on States Rights.

US citizens dont have blanket rights to travel to any state without conditions. Try bringing fruit into California, or buy some weed here and drive it across state line to a state that has not legalized it yet. I know it happens, but its illegal nonetheless.

I know its going to come up next month when the idiots start shooting off illegal fireworks here in CA, they bring them in from other States or Mexico. Its like a war zone around here 4th of July, it makes me laugh because the city puts out Zero Tolerance message signs on all the streets at the city limit signs, does no good and no enforcement occurs.



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[T_R_Oglodyte]

I'm curious on the view of an admitted pessimist...

Keeping in mind that we'll no doubt have:

• some kind of testing
• social distancing
• face masks
• hand washing
• hand and facility sanitizing
• no buffets and other risky serving
• reduced restaurant capacities and safety protocols
• limited groups/crowds, and, finally,
• perhaps only 15-20% the number of tourists that were coming in February and early March

what makes you think that restarting tourism will result in a BIGGER COVID problem than what they had in March/April?

There is a complete loss of perspective by so many it shocks me. And I'm not cavalier at all. But, really, with 30,000 tourists per DAY coming in from all over the world in February and into March, with no testing at all, no extra efforts at sanitation or hand washing, no contact tracing, and no mitigation efforts whatsoever, not even a clue there was a contagious disease that spreads without symptoms, the entire state of Hawaii had fewer than 700 cases in 3 months, and only 17 fatalities. Again, for perspective, what was the reduction in auto fatalities during the shutdown? (https://hidot.hawaii.gov/highways/safe-communites/ There were 17 in Jan-Feb. April 4. Don't have May yet. It may be that COVID saved as many lives as it took.)

If I was betting the OVER/UNDER on number of cases in October - December, I'd put the number at perhaps 300 and I'd take the under.

There is virtually no virus right now. I think it is possible that the actual number is zero on Kauai. There is also no rioting or social strife. Hawaii is a paradise right now. If residents can tighten their belts and weather the financial storm, Hawaii could be a very highly prized destination —- a gold nugget. I think there are solid reasons to maintain this status even at a high price. And if it is hard to get here, people will want it even more.

Specific timing of when tourists stopped coming to Hawaii is a key factor here. In March the numbers of people coming to Hawaii already started to go down significantly. By March 21st when we decided to leave the Hilton Hawaiian Village(the largest accomodations complex in Hawaii) four of the 8 buildings had already closed, the Hale Koa had already closed, and the HGVC top management at the HHV advised us the in another week or so we would be the only ones left in the timeshares so they were going to close. The museums and theatres that we frequent had cancelled all shows. Bars were closed and restaurants were only doing take out. Social distancing was already in place for awhile. Honolulu like we know it was already closed up. Exactly when the timeshare and hotel guest count started to go down I didn't keep track of but it didn't happen in one or two days.

The virus at this time was not full blown in the rest of the United States. New York, the center of the virus in the US only had a couple of cases in February and didn't start to really go up until late March. The threat from outside of Hawaii is much greater than in February and early March.

This is where I disagree. The KNOWN threat, yes. But if you think there were only "a couple of cases in February" in the US, you're fooling yourself. There were probably thousands or tens of thousands. I suspect some of the "flu" and "pneumonia" deaths in January and February were in fact COVID. But we had no test for COVID, and almost no medical understanding of it, at that time. Given the lengthy incubation time, the amount of asymptomatic infection and spread, and lower mortality rate than first thought, I believe history will show a very different story. With a 0.5% mortality rate you need 200 cases to get a single death. With a 30-60 day lag between initial infection -> incubation -> hospitalization -> death, you have many 1000's of infections before you record that very first death. Now add exponential growth with an R0 of 1.9, and, those 1000's of patients with it before the first death, and you have an out of control wildfire of spread before the first patient died.

That's the epidemiological reality.

So my point is, by the time in March when numbers were dropping, COVID was all over Hawaii, hidden by the lack of testing, knowledge, and mortality, and spreading freely until the mitigation/shut down began mid-Month.

Now, in Oct or whenever tourism returns, it returns with testing, social distancing, masks, hand washing, and, importantly due to testing, a lower volume of inflow of infected people. And, critically, the R0 will be well below 1.0 due to the elimination of the high-risk activities, masks and distancing, eliminating exponential spread, and making containment relatively easy compared with an R0 of almost 2.

Much of my concern has to do with an inability to trust the vendors to provide a clean environment for travel. Airports, planes, car rental, hotels/timeshares, restaurants, uber/Lyft, etc. I’m not there yet.

Also, did I write that they would have a “bigger Covid problem”? Hmm...

I also have no rush to travel. I’m not out to prove my resilience against a known virus for which we have no vaccine. Some of you seem to have this need to get out there as soon as possible...that’s not me. I had several months of travel booked for this year I will be canceling and at this point I have zero regrets doing so. I’m just hoping I will be able to travel comfortably in 2021, and I’m not optimistic.


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In my opinion, the posts quoted above contain opinion and hypothesis, and do not belong in this thread related to FACTUAL status only. They should be moved to the other Hawaii reopening thread. And this post deleted as well to keep this thread clean on point.

 

[Luanne]

I know its going to come up next month when the idiots start shooting off illegal fireworks here in CA, they bring them in from other States or Mexico. Its like a war zone around here 4th of July, it makes me laugh because the city puts out Zero Tolerance message signs on all the streets at the city limit signs, does no good and no enforcement occurs.
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I'm going to take this off topic, but when we lived in California we could buy legal fireworks in the county next to us. They were legal to buy, and to set off. So no one had to go to another state or Mexico to get the "Safe and Sane" fireworks. And for awhile you could get firecrackers in Chinatown (San Francisco).

 

[beachlynn]

A few thoughts. This is all just chatter at this point. We don't know when opening will happen. The gov over there probably doesn't either. 2 weeks ago the LA county Rep said it would likely be the end of July before LA opened. People lost their mind because it was 2 1/2 months away. One thing that we know about Covid is that it is new and everything has changed about it pretty frequently. Well, lo and behold LA County opened up most things this last Tues evening and LA city followed the next day knowing they would be losing out on many tax $$. Hawaii has done a good job of limiting infection so who knows what 2 weeks or month will bring.
Don't we hope that Gov Ige and local officials have been working on the logistics of opening all of this time? I wouldn't think they would be just waiting to work on options after they decide to open up. It is obviously in their best interests and those of their citizens to do it relatively quickly, efficiently and of course safely.
What if someone has a fever and it is not Covid related or contagious? Are they refused entry. My dad was just traveling and got a sore on his leg and it got infected so based on a temp only check he would be refused entry which wouldn't be fair.
The testing is going to open up a bucket of worms. What if as testing gets more sophisticated somebody tested positive but had immunity and wasn't contagious and they were turned away. I've heard that it is possible that people can test positive a 2nd time but they aren't contagious because they are shedding dead virus cells. Until testing gets really refined it would be hard to discern the risk. It would be devastating to have a paid for vacation that you couldn't cancel at the last minute. I can see people say that they can't take that risk so they will chose another place to spend their vacation dollars. I know there are plenty of people who live there would be happy about that but there are many others who would not. I own 2 timeshares and I picked Hawaii because I love it. I'm not excited about going to somewhere else but I might if I have to worry that at the airport I might get turned away and lose money because I can't cancel in a timely manner.

 

[Ken555]

maybe but there is no guarantee that Japan will not have a second wave

Jump in virus cases sparks fear of 2nd wave in Japan

Infections rise in cities including Tokyo just days after end of nationwide state of emergency - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

There’s no guarantee anyplace won’t have a second wave!

Given the current situation, it makes sense they may be included with any travel arrangement. This is similar to New Zealand and Australia, I believe, and other regions.

Not sure why this is a surprise that Hawaii wants to remain COVID-free.


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[csodjd]

Much of my concern has to do with an inability to trust the vendors to provide a clean environment for travel. Airports, planes, car rental, hotels/timeshares, restaurants, uber/Lyft, etc. I’m not there yet.

Well, you may be correct, but they're going to be providing a cleaner environment than they were before COVID, even if it's imperfect. And they are very motivated to do so.

 

[Ken555]

In my opinion, the posts quoted above contain opinion and hypothesis, and do not belong in this thread related to FACTUAL status only. They should be moved to the other Hawaii reopening thread. And this post deleted as well to keep this thread clean on point.

I absolutely agree. It’s too easy to just respond... move this discussion.


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[csodjd]

In my opinion, the posts quoted above contain opinion and hypothesis, and do not belong in this thread related to FACTUAL status only. They should be moved to the other Hawaii reopening thread. And this post deleted as well to keep this thread clean on point.

I agree. I thought I was in the other thread and didn't realize this was the factual updates only thread. Too bad it doesn't show that detail at the bottom, only the top.

 

[Ken555]

Well, you may be correct, but they're going to be providing a cleaner environment than they were before COVID, even if it's imperfect. And they are very motivated to do so.

You keep writing the same thing over and over. You asked a question of me and I responded. I didn’t say you had to agree with it.


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[T_R_Oglodyte]

There’s no guarantee anyplace won’t have a second wave!

Given the current situation, it makes sense they may be included with any travel arrangement. This is similar to New Zealand and Australia, I believe, and other regions.

Not sure why this is a surprise that Hawaii wants to remain COVID-free.


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Sheltering in place wasn't sold to the public as a way of stopping the virus. It was sold as "flattening the curve", so that health care facilities would not be overwhelmed.

Even if we can effectively trace contacts and quarantine, it will not cease to exist. There will be flareups and outbreaks.

What will happen is that through some combination of vaccines of some degree of effectiveness, a degree of herd immunity, and natural selection, the threat posed by the COVID-19 will decline to what is considered by the population to be an acceptable level of risk, switching COVID-19 from "pandemic disease" to "endemic disease". That almost certainly will be a social decision, not a medical decision, because the medical establishment will break conservative and will warn of continuing hazards, and growing numbers of people will simply ignore the warnings and get on with life.

People who are in vulnerable groups will need to take special precautions, much as already currently happens with people who have had organ transplants.

I suppose that sounds pessimistic, but I don't see any reason why this pandemic should be considered to somehow be different from other pandemics.

 

[Ken555]

Sheltering in place wasn't sold to the public as a way of stopping the virus. It was sold as "flattening the curve", so that health care facilities would not be overwhelmed.

Even so, that doesn't mean that conditions or goals won't change. Nor does it mean that it is incumbent upon Hawaii to open up and welcome visitors from areas where the virus is still spreading.

 

[1Kflyerguy]

I am becoming a lot less confident that our fall trip to Hawaii will happen... will be watching the calendar closely to avoid missing any cancelation deadlines

 

[Yellowfin]

Even so, that doesn't mean that conditions or goals won't change. Nor does it mean that it is incumbent upon Hawaii to open up and welcome visitors from areas where the virus is still spreading.

like Japan

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

Even so, that doesn't mean that conditions or goals won't change. Nor does it mean that it is incumbent upon Hawaii to open up and welcome visitors from areas where the virus is still spreading.

Agreed.

And those of us who have sat through timeshare sales presentations are quite familiar with being persuaded to do something under one set of conditions, only to have those conditions unilaterally altered later.

Often, it makes people feel they have been duped, and occasionally that feeling affects their subsequent behavior. Might even make them a bit cantankerous.

 

[DavidnRobin]

I am becoming a lot less confident that our fall trip to Hawaii will happen... will be watching the calendar closely to avoid missing any cancelation deadlines

IMO IMO IMO

I sympathize- we have mid-Sept reservation WKORV OFD (expensive SOs if cancelled).

If I were King of Hawaii, I would require all people entering to have a certificate of a validated COVID-19 assay that shows negative result within 7 days of arrival.
Along with Temp Check (mask, questionnaire, etc) and standard Social Distance practices.

I am at a loss why they do not coordinate and implement this ASAP.
We are certainly prepared to do this.

Other island countries are requiring C-19 testing. I have friend that works in Singapore, and this is being required to return from US.

This is doable as the tests are becoming more readily available.

HELLO HAWAII - ARE YOU LISTENING!!!???


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[Ken555]

like Japan

Of course. Why are you fixated on Japan?

 

[luv_maui]

I will second that!

IMO IMO IMO

I sympathize- we have mid-Sept reservation WKORV OFD (expensive SOs if cancelled).

If I were King of Hawaii, I would require all people entering to have a certificate of a validated COVID-19 assay that shows negative result within 7 days of arrival.
Along with Temp Check (mask, questionnaire, etc) and standard Social Distance practices.

I am at a loss why they do not coordinate and implement this ASAP.
We are certainly prepared to do this.

Other island countries are requiring C-19 testing. I have friend that works in Singapore, and this is being required to return from US.

This is doable as the tests are becoming more readily available.

HELLO HAWAII - ARE YOU LISTENING!!!???


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I’m 100% on board with this. Maybe(?) they are working on this hopefully?

 

[Kapolei]

In my opinion, the posts quoted above contain opinion and hypothesis, and do not belong in this thread related to FACTUAL status only. They should be moved to the other Hawaii reopening thread. And this post deleted as well to keep this thread clean on point.

This is the fact based thread. You shouldn’t be offering an opinion here.

 

[T_R_Oglodyte]

This is the fact based thread. You shouldn’t be offering an opinion here.

Touché.

 

[csodjd]

This is the fact based thread. You shouldn’t be offering an opinion here.

It is a fact that it is T_R_Oglodyte's opinion.

 

[gdrj]

It makes perfect sense to restrict access to those regions which have successfully flattened the curve, reduced the Rt rate significantly, and testing in sufficient numbers. The continental US has not done that, so not sure why anyone would think they should be admitted before, or with, others that have done so. I applaud Hawaii for even considering such an option, since I’m sure they realize how that may appear to the rest of the country.

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To what end? Hawaii may want to limit travelers from mainland but as their economy continues to crash, small businesses unfortunately close up, unemployment stays high, and homelessness grows they will have their hands out seeking Federal money, from those mainland taxpayers.

 

[Luanne]

To what end? Hawaii may want to limit travelers from mainland but as their economy continues to crash, small businesses unfortunately close up, unemployment stays high, and homelessness grows they will have their hands out seeking Federal money, from those mainland taxpayers.

Hawaii will have their hands out for Federal money, just like every other state. And from your post it sounds like you assume they don't pay any federal taxes.

 

[csodjd]

To what end? Hawaii may want to limit travelers from mainland but as their economy continues to crash, small businesses unfortunately close up, unemployment stays high, and homelessness grows they will have their hands out seeking Federal money, from those mainland taxpayers.

I believe it was the Mayor of Maui (not certain) that said the other day that the tourism-unemployed ought to start looking for a different line of work, and was suggesting they might look at working for the state or federal government. His feeling was that in the best of worlds most of them are not going to be needed in 2020.

 

[Monica808]

I'm a teacher living out here in Maui with my husband and daughter. And we see how quiet things are out here now and the need for things to open back up soon. If anyone out there is going to loose out on their week or time out there due to the quarantine and you would like to donate it to us we would be appreciative for the opportunity to get out of our house for a bit.

 

[Yellowfin]

Is this a first on TUG, somebody asking for a free week of vacation? I personally find this request slightly offensive.