[Closed - new thread started] Will Hawaii Open by [OCTOBER???] [Please use this thread for all Hawaii Coronavirus discussions]

[Yellowfin]

Of course, but the current state plan is the scanners at every gate. There may be details out there about them, but I haven't seen them. I know it's some kind of imaging system.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/05/11/thermal-scanners-are-latest-technology-being-deployed-detect-coronavirus-they-dont-really-work/

 

[DeniseM]

OK.... but is that what Hawaii is using?

 

[Yellowfin]

OK.... but is that what Hawaii is using?

there is no scanner I am aware of that detects COVID. You need to swab someone deep his nose and process the sample. This takes a long time (not to mention decontamination after each tested person) and is not proper for an airport where you have a constant flow of people.

 

[csodjd]

On one hand, some posters in this forum are requesting a quick open for Hawaii, but then they are proposing solutions which are not doable at this time. You can't have it both ways.

Not sure if you're directing that swipe at me or not, but if so, it's badly misplaced. The only thing I've advocating for the government to do is lay out a play with a target timeline. That timeline would account for what is and is not "doable." And YOUR opinion that something isn't "doable" doesn't make it so. Where there is a will there is often a way, especially when there is money to be made. Perhaps you don't think so, but I believe in 3 months they can get a lot done, and a lot can change, if leadership is capable and up to the task.

 

[csodjd]

there is no scanner I am aware of that detects COVID. You need to swab someone deep his nose and process the sample. This takes a long time (not to mention decontamination after each tested person) and is not proper for an airport where you have a constant flow of people.

It's certainly not ideal in an airport. But if people know they need a test within 72 hours of departure, that's a different thing all together. Moreover, if the issues/problems with the Abbott ID NOW rapid test are resolved -- which is likely in my opinion -- you'll have a test that produces a complete result in 15 min or less. Abbott says, "We're currently manufacturing 50,000 tests per day, plan to increase ID NOW manufacturing capacity to 2 million tests a month by June and are working to expand beyond that."

Abbott Releases Interim Clinical Study Data on ID NOW COVID-19 Rapid Test Showing Strong Agreement to Lab-Based Molecular PCR Tests

Abbott (NYSE: ABT) announced today an interim analysis of an ongoing multi-site clinical study in urgent care clinics that indicates its ID NOW COVID-19 rapid test is showing strong agreement to...

abbott.mediaroom.com

Demand Surges For Abbott Labs Rapid Coronavirus Test As New Data Support Accuracy

Demand for Abbott Laboratories rapid test for Covid-19 continues to surge while the U.S. Food and Drug Administration reviews a small number of false negative reports and more data comes out to support the diagnostic’s accuracy.

www.forbes.com

 

[csodjd]

Hawaii does not have the ability to ban travel to the state. That would be interference in interstate commerce. Like every other state, they do have power to regulate the behavior of people once they enter the state, including quarantine. So when travelers arrive, what they can do is decide whom they can allow to enter without quarantine, and who needs to quarantine. Any testing/scanning program will be built around that.

If were in their situation, I think I would be looking to identify testing entities whose results are considered acceptable. I would also be thinking through some protocols. Is it an virus test or antibody test, and how would my response differ? How recent does the test have to be - and that will likely be different if it's an antibody or a virus presence test. What's the probability that it might be a false negative or positive, and under what circumstances should multiple test results be required to address the false postive/negative scenarios?

These are not easy questions and will require some time to set up and vet. But since Hawaii has elected to control COVID by isolation and quarantine techniques, those are critical questions to answer.

It's not an interstate commerce issue. It's actually the Privileges and Immunities Clause. But the point is correct.

Antibody test has no relevance at this point and isn't worth discussing. The only test that matters is for virus.

 

[DeniseM]

Perhaps you don't think so, but I believe in 3 months they can get a lot done, and a lot can change, if leadership is capable and up to the task.

I agree - I thought from you other posts that you wanted them to open much earlier, like this summer.

RE: Timeline - the Govt. spokesman said that the earliest they can have the equipment installed is 2 mos. There's your preliminary timeline. Since they may not even have the equpment yet, publishing a detailed timeline now, would be premature, but once they get started and see how the installation goes, I'm confident that they will release more info to the public. YMMV

 

[csodjd]

It is unclear to me how testing can be accomplished upon landing without creating huge crowds on the airport. To me it makes more sense to demand testing 2-3 days before departure and only ask those that do not have a valid certificate to be tested in Hawaii.

No doubt, if the only testing were upon arrival, that would be a challenge. But I believe the suggestion I read (Lt. Gov. I believe) was that people could choose, get tested within 3 days before leaving, or wait at the airport for up to 12 hours to get tested upon arrival. Or quarantine. I suspect few would opt for the latter two. Not a lot of upsides.

 

[csodjd]

Hmmm - 10 days ago the State Legislature voted to spend $37 million on airport testing and said it would take AT LEAST 2 months - that seems pretty clear to me. At this point in time, it seems like it would be premature to announce a date, since I doubt if the equipment has even landed on island yet. YMMV

Sure, but "at least 2 months" from when? That certainly covers and largely rules out June and July. No surprise there. But does that suggest that they COULD be ready as early as August if they act promptly? The point is simply that it's not clear, based on public statements, what their timeline is. And statements like that suggest that if they move along with a sense of urgency, they can be ready sooner (2-3 months) rather than later.

 

[csodjd]

I agree - I thought from you other posts that you wanted them to open much earlier, like this summer.

RE: Timeline - the Govt. spokesman said that the earliest they can have the equipment installed is 2 mos. There's your preliminary timeline. Since they may not even have the equpment yet, publishing a detailed timeline now, would be premature, but once they get started and see how the installation goes, I'm confident that they will release more info to the public. YMMV

I'd love for them to be able to open this summer, but that seems a bridge too far with respect to tourism and people coming from outside Hawaii. I've never said I EXPECTED that they'd be open this summer. I've thought at all times about Sept. 1 is a realistic goal, possibly August (that was before they said they wanted thermal scanners). The infrastructure for the paperwork, procedures, quarantine set up, etc., takes some time. But, again, assuming it takes about 60 days for the hotels to be ready, it would be nice if they give a 60-day heads up.

I don't personally put a lot of faith in the temperature scanners. If you do actual testing and people that test positive don't come the scanners will pick up mostly people with colds and other non-COVID causes of fever. Lots of false positives there. Testing is the key. Having a fever doesn't mean you have COVID. Not having a fever also doesn't mean you don't have COVID.

 

[1Kflyerguy]

Seems like the Lt Governor is more open to opening up travel than the Governor:

Lt. Gov. Green says Hawaii slow to reopen parts of economy | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

With the flattest COVID-19 curve in the nation, Lt. Gov. Josh Green said Wednesday that Hawaii should have reopened interisland travel and limited business activity “10 days ago.”

www.staradvertiser.com

Personally i am probably in line with the Lt. Gov on this.. But then that easy for me to say sitting in the safety of my home office..

 

[lynne]

Southwest Air will be resuming flights in July:

Southwest Hawaii Stiffens Competition: 11 New Daily Flights Exposed

Lastest news on Southwest schedules and fares. Some routes continue to have great deals for summer. Find out more in today's post.

beatofhawaii.com

 

[slip]

Southwest Air will be resuming flights in July:

Southwest Hawaii Stiffens Competition: 11 New Daily Flights Exposed

Lastest news on Southwest schedules and fares. Some routes continue to have great deals for summer. Find out more in today's post.

beatofhawaii.com

I just got that email too.

 

[gdrj]

Governor said today that he is extending 14 day quarantine past June 30. No specifics have been released. https://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/2020/...s-outline-latest-steps-reopen-hawaiis-economy

He is single handedly destroying the States economy. I cant see, based on the available information, why this decision is being made, and there is no timetable on opening.

To be clear I am a proponent of social distancing, wearing masks, etc., but at some point you have to stop hiding under the bed.

 

[luv_maui]

I got optimistic after seeing Southwest‘s supposedly resumption’s of flights in July. But now with quarantine to be extended, I wonder if Southwest will now back off once the extension dates are known.

 

[amy241]

I find the comments to this article are more interesting than the article itself. A number of people are very upset that Hawaii would open up to other countries ahead of US states which it is a part of:

As Desperation Ensues, Hawaiian Airlines Speaks on Restarting Tourism Now

Hawaii-bound travelers for later in 2020 and beyond increasingly frustrated and in need of answers.

beatofhawaii.com

 

[csodjd]

Assuming...

And yet they don’t define the “new normal”.

More importantly, it seems they are aware that

So I hope they really are prepared for this.

It’s still way too early to know how they really will implement tourist visits.

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I'm curious on the view of an admitted pessimist...

Keeping in mind that we'll no doubt have:

• some kind of testing
• social distancing
• face masks
• hand washing
• hand and facility sanitizing
• no buffets and other risky serving
• reduced restaurant capacities and safety protocols
• limited groups/crowds, and, finally,
• perhaps only 15-20% the number of tourists that were coming in February and early March

what makes you think that restarting tourism will result in a BIGGER COVID problem than what they had in March/April?

There is a complete loss of perspective by so many it shocks me. And I'm not cavalier at all. But, really, with 30,000 tourists per DAY coming in from all over the world in February and into March, with no testing at all, no extra efforts at sanitation or hand washing, no contact tracing, and no mitigation efforts whatsoever, not even a clue there was a contagious disease that spreads without symptoms, the entire state of Hawaii had fewer than 700 cases in 3 months, and only 17 fatalities. Again, for perspective, what was the reduction in auto fatalities during the shutdown? (https://hidot.hawaii.gov/highways/safe-communites/ There were 17 in Jan-Feb. April 4. Don't have May yet. It may be that COVID saved as many lives as it took.)

If I was betting the OVER/UNDER on number of cases in October - December, I'd put the number at perhaps 300 and I'd take the under.

 

[Kapolei]

I'm curious on the view of an admitted pessimist...

Keeping in mind that we'll no doubt have:

• some kind of testing
• social distancing
• face masks
• hand washing
• hand and facility sanitizing
• no buffets and other risky serving
• reduced restaurant capacities and safety protocols
• limited groups/crowds, and, finally,
• perhaps only 15-20% the number of tourists that were coming in February and early March

what makes you think that restarting tourism will result in a BIGGER COVID problem than what they had in March/April?

There is a complete loss of perspective by so many it shocks me. And I'm not cavalier at all. But, really, with 30,000 tourists per DAY coming in from all over the world in February and into March, with no testing at all, no extra efforts at sanitation or hand washing, no contact tracing, and no mitigation efforts whatsoever, not even a clue there was a contagious disease that spreads without symptoms, the entire state of Hawaii had fewer than 700 cases in 3 months, and only 17 fatalities. Again, for perspective, what was the reduction in auto fatalities during the shutdown? (https://hidot.hawaii.gov/highways/safe-communites/ There were 17 in Jan-Feb. April 4. Don't have May yet. It may be that COVID saved as many lives as it took.)

If I was betting the OVER/UNDER on number of cases in October - December, I'd put the number at perhaps 300 and I'd take the under.

There is virtually no virus right now. I think it is possible that the actual number is zero on Kauai. There is also no rioting or social strife. Hawaii is a paradise right now. If residents can tighten their belts and weather the financial storm, Hawaii could be a very highly prized destination —- a gold nugget. I think there are solid reasons to maintain this status even at a high price. And if it is hard to get here, people will want it even more.

 

[amycurl]

Re: temperature checks. Dr. Ohl, the infectious disease specialist at Wake Forest University, referred to this method of screening for COVID as “perhaps providing some mental health benefit.” In other words, installing these would be very expensive public health theater.


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[Yellowfin]

News about the pilot project to allow Japanese visitors first. I'd be curious to know if the hotels are thrilled about the idea to reopen but have a 10-15% occupancy, they may still bleed money. The same for other businesses. I am sure those that own timeshares in Hawaii are not going to be thrilled about this. So you have paid maintenance fees (and local taxes) for years and you are told that someone from Japan will be allowed but not you.

Hawaii explores ‘travel bubble’ with Japan amid tourism collapse | Honolulu Star-Advertiser

A pilot “travel bubble” with Japan that allows for relaxed travel restrictions between the two destinations might be a way for Hawaii tourism to start coming back from the 99.5% plunge that it took in April.

www.staradvertiser.com

Proposed pilot travel program between Japan, Hawaii could be quarantine-free

The 14-day quarantine rule is not exactly welcoming tourists to our islands, but a proposed pilot program may change that. When and how does Hawaii re-open its tourism industry? It’s an issue…

www.khon2.com

It seems that the 14 day quarantine will be extended beyond June. Probably Denise is right, the islands will not reopen before September-October.

Hawaii governor to extend traveler quarantine past June

HONOLULU (AP) — Hawaii Gov. David Ige on Thursday said he would extend the state’s 14-day quarantine requirement for travelers arriving in the state beyond June 30.

www.mercurynews.com

 

[Tamaradarann]

I'm curious on the view of an admitted pessimist...

Keeping in mind that we'll no doubt have:

• some kind of testing
• social distancing
• face masks
• hand washing
• hand and facility sanitizing
• no buffets and other risky serving
• reduced restaurant capacities and safety protocols
• limited groups/crowds, and, finally,
• perhaps only 15-20% the number of tourists that were coming in February and early March

what makes you think that restarting tourism will result in a BIGGER COVID problem than what they had in March/April?

There is a complete loss of perspective by so many it shocks me. And I'm not cavalier at all. But, really, with 30,000 tourists per DAY coming in from all over the world in February and into March, with no testing at all, no extra efforts at sanitation or hand washing, no contact tracing, and no mitigation efforts whatsoever, not even a clue there was a contagious disease that spreads without symptoms, the entire state of Hawaii had fewer than 700 cases in 3 months, and only 17 fatalities. Again, for perspective, what was the reduction in auto fatalities during the shutdown? (https://hidot.hawaii.gov/highways/safe-communites/ There were 17 in Jan-Feb. April 4. Don't have May yet. It may be that COVID saved as many lives as it took.)

If I was betting the OVER/UNDER on number of cases in October - December, I'd put the number at perhaps 300 and I'd take the under.

Specific timing of when tourists stopped coming to Hawaii is a key factor here. In March the numbers of people coming to Hawaii already started to go down significantly. By March 21st when we decided to leave the Hilton Hawaiian Village(the largest accomodations complex in Hawaii) four of the 8 buildings had already closed, the Hale Koa had already closed, and the HGVC top management at the HHV advised us the in another week or so we would be the only ones left in the timeshares so they were going to close. The museums and theatres that we frequent had cancelled all shows. Bars were closed and restaurants were only doing take out. Social distancing was already in place for awhile. Honolulu like we know it was already closed up. Exactly when the timeshare and hotel guest count started to go down I didn't keep track of but it didn't happen in one or two days.

The virus at this time was not full blown in the rest of the United States. New York, the center of the virus in the US only had a couple of cases in February and didn't start to really go up until late March. The threat from outside of Hawaii is much greater than in February and early March.

 

[csodjd]

The virus at this time was not full blown in the rest of the United States. New York, the center of the virus in the US only had a couple of cases in February and didn't start to really go up until late March. The threat from outside of Hawaii is much greater than in February and early March.

This is where I disagree. The KNOWN threat, yes. But if you think there were only "a couple of cases in February" in the US, you're fooling yourself. There were probably thousands or tens of thousands. I suspect some of the "flu" and "pneumonia" deaths in January and February were in fact COVID. But we had no test for COVID, and almost no medical understanding of it, at that time. Given the lengthy incubation time, the amount of asymptomatic infection and spread, and lower mortality rate than first thought, I believe history will show a very different story. With a 0.5% mortality rate you need 200 cases to get a single death. With a 30-60 day lag between initial infection -> incubation -> hospitalization -> death, you have many 1000's of infections before you record that very first death. Now add exponential growth with an R0 of 1.9, and, those 1000's of patients with it before the first death, and you have an out of control wildfire of spread before the first patient died.

That's the epidemiological reality.

So my point is, by the time in March when numbers were dropping, COVID was all over Hawaii, hidden by the lack of testing, knowledge, and mortality, and spreading freely until the mitigation/shut down began mid-Month.

Now, in Oct or whenever tourism returns, it returns with testing, social distancing, masks, hand washing, and, importantly due to testing, a lower volume of inflow of infected people. And, critically, the R0 will be well below 1.0 due to the elimination of the high-risk activities, masks and distancing, eliminating exponential spread, and making containment relatively easy compared with an R0 of almost 2.

 

[Ken555]

what makes you think that restarting tourism will result in a BIGGER COVID problem than what they had in March/April?

Much of my concern has to do with an inability to trust the vendors to provide a clean environment for travel. Airports, planes, car rental, hotels/timeshares, restaurants, uber/Lyft, etc. I’m not there yet.

Also, did I write that they would have a “bigger Covid problem”? Hmm...

I also have no rush to travel. I’m not out to prove my resilience against a known virus for which we have no vaccine. Some of you seem to have this need to get out there as soon as possible...that’s not me. I had several months of travel booked for this year I will be canceling and at this point I have zero regrets doing so. I’m just hoping I will be able to travel comfortably in 2021, and I’m not optimistic.


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[Ken555]

News about the pilot project to allow Japanese visitors first. I'd be curious to know if the hotels are thrilled about the idea to reopen but have a 10-15% occupancy, they may still bleed money. The same for other businesses. I am sure those that own timeshares in Hawaii are not going to be thrilled about this. So you have paid maintenance fees (and local taxes) for years and you are told that someone from Japan will be allowed but not you.

It makes perfect sense to restrict access to those regions which have successfully flattened the curve, reduced the Rt rate significantly, and testing in sufficient numbers. The continental US has not done that, so not sure why anyone would think they should be admitted before, or with, others that have done so. I applaud Hawaii for even considering such an option, since I’m sure they realize how that may appear to the rest of the country.


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[Yellowfin]

It makes perfect sense to restrict access to those regions which have successfully flattened the curve, reduced the Rt rate significantly, and testing in sufficient numbers. The continental US has not done that, so not sure why anyone would think they should be admitted before, or with, others that have done so. I applaud Hawaii for even considering such an option, since I’m sure they realize how that may appear to the rest of the country.


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maybe but there is no guarantee that Japan will not have a second wave

Jump in virus cases sparks fear of 2nd wave in Japan

Infections rise in cities including Tokyo just days after end of nationwide state of emergency - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr