You're Being Lied to About Electric Cars

[HitchHiker71]

I agree. They really did screw up going with large expensive ev's instead of the smaller less costly ones. I think it's partly due to regulations and incentives as to why ev's are so large. Tesla had re-clasify their sedan to suv. Currently the Treasury is changing the definition of suv so more ev's can gain incentives, lol.

Bill

Tesla never reclassified any sedan to an SUV, so I have no idea where you are getting this false info from really. The Model 3 and model S always were and always will be sedans. The Model Y and Model X always were and always will be a CUV/SUV, as they were always intended to be from the outset of their design.

As to the assertion that BEVs are inherently heavier than ICE vehicles - while there is some limited evidence of this in some scenarios - it’s not anywhere close to what most are led to believe. Here’s a direct comparison of the newest Tesla Model 3 performance against current ICE rivals for weight, just as one example:

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[HitchHiker71]

And the great thing is that climate control & seat heaters are electric, so it's blowing warm (or a/c) within seconds of turning it on.

The great thing is it’s all controlled via an app on your phone and you can set automatic preconditioning and charging schedules so the BEV HVAC and battery are charged and ready whenever you leave your home. We use the app to turn on the HVAC about five minutes before we are ready to depart any location so it’s just the right temp when we leave - regardless of where we are or what we are doing.


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[emeryjre]

IME the vast majority of skeptics have never even ridden in a Tesla or other recently produced BEV, yet they are very vocal about that which they have zero direct experience using and living with on a day to day basis. Most of their talking points are spoon fed to them from skeptical mass media outfits to boot.


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I am glad it was someone besides me pointing this out
I do not believe I have seen a single post by an owner of EV wishing they had not bought

 

[HitchHiker71]

When will we run out of nickel, cobalt and lithium?

Since they are all recyclable and are in point of fact already being recycled by Redwood and Tesla - roughly 95% of the battery pack metals and materials are already being recycled - the answer is definitively that we will run out of oil - which is 0% recyclable - long before we run out of metals and minerals for battery packs.


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[HitchHiker71]

Fisker Is Dead​

Henrik Fisker’s car company filed for bankruptcy late Monday, just three months after pausing production on its all-electric SUV.

Fisker Is Dead

Henrik Fisker’s car company filed for bankruptcy late Monday, just three months after pausing production on its all-electric SUV.

www.wired.com

Rivian and Lucid Are Toast​

Rivian and Lucid Are Toast

The discussion shifts to the EV market, highlighting significant sales increases for GM (NYSE: GM), Ford (NYSE: F), Hyundai-Kia, BMW, Mercedes, and Porsche in May. Ford, in particular, is gaining traction with the F-150 Lightning and Mustang Mach-E. Smaller players like Lucid (NASDAQ: LCID) and...

247wallst.com

Lucid quite possibly since they are still losing several hundred thousand per vehicle sold. Rivian will reach positive gross profit margin in late 2024 but will still need one additional capital infusion to bankroll their mass market R2/R3 series vehicles which will start production by 2026, they will get their money without a doubt given how successful they have already been to date in getting costs under control.


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[HitchHiker71]

I get 45 mpg on my Honda CRV hybrid
(city driving)

View attachment 94817

View attachment 94818

Yes, contrary to the skeptics, BEV adoption continues forward and the adoption tracking metrics clearly show that while the rate of increase is slowing a bit - it's still marching forward as predicted. It's also worth pointing out that new vehicle sales are slowing across the board - and that BEV sales are slowing at roughly the same rate as new ICE vehicle sales - the entire new car market is slowing up quite a bit in other words.

 

[easyrider]

What is up with you and these fonts?

They have been saying we are running out of oil for years, yet we never do and reserves constantly expand as new ones are found.

@Brett likes to use large fonts instead of actual facts.

The science behind oil reserves is almost exactly opposite the rhetoric. Geologist say there are many areas in the world that hold oil reserves that aren't quantifiable as the reserves are too vast or unattainable with todays technology.

Bill

 

[easyrider]

Yes, contrary to the skeptics, BEV adoption continues forward and the adoption tracking metrics clearly show that while the rate of increase is slowing a bit - it's still marching forward as predicted. It's also worth pointing out that new vehicle sales are slowing across the board - and that BEV sales are slowing at roughly the same rate as new ICE vehicle sales - the entire new car market is slowing up quite a bit in other words.

While new ev car sales are growing they really have a depreciation problem making them a bummer to get rid of after five years. They depreciate almost 40% on average in the first year where an ice depreciates on average 5%-!0% the first year. At five years the ev depreciates about 55% compared to under 40% with ice. At ten years an ev depreciates about 90% compared to about 50% with ice.

Since most people buy used cars it would seem to make sense that with the high depreciation the used ev's would sell in the used market but no one seem to want one without warranty unless it priced so low that it's disposable.

Bill

 

[HitchHiker71]

Again, oil is an insignificant source of electricity.

Contrary to popular myth - renewable energy production sources just surpassed coal and nuclear energy as a percentage according to the US EIA that tracks generation data:

Within the next 10 years - renewables will surpass natural gas and will likely constitute 75% of all US energy production - on up to close to 100% within 20 years best estimate. From an investment perspective, almost every dollar is going toward renewable energy production - particularly solar - since is now cheaper on a per kw basis than any other energy source - commercial solar is in point of fact now less expensive across the board - including production and transmission - than the mere transmission of all other power generation sources - let alone the generation costs. This is why there's almost no investment for production of other energy sources - because they are significantly more expensive to produce and to maintain and transmit. The move toward renewables makes the most financial sense, which is why it is inevitable regardless of the politics and opinions involved.

 

[emeryjre]

The depreciation rate of EV's has increased because the drop in pricing of new EV's
The other factor was the large amount of rental cars from Hertz hitting the market
EV depreciation only affects people selling their EVs
Several people I know bought their EV with the idea of driving if for a long time
Unless a person is in an area where EV's make sense for their needs
Their whole experience with an EV is based on a very limited amount of information
Major Urban areas are still the sweet spot for EV's
My second home is in an area where EV's make little sense
The attitude is "I don't need one" and they are absolutely correct
Since my first home is in North County San Diego
The people there have completely different attitudes about EV's

 

[Brett]

Yes, contrary to the skeptics, BEV adoption continues forward and the adoption tracking metrics clearly show that while the rate of increase is slowing a bit - it's still marching forward as predicted. It's also worth pointing out that new vehicle sales are slowing across the board - and that BEV sales are slowing at roughly the same rate as new ICE vehicle sales - the entire new car market is slowing up quite a bit in other words.

yes, for obvious reasons hybrid autos sales will continue to grow

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China drives EV boom this year amid strong demand for hybrid vehicles​

• EV sales, including both fully battery-powered vehicles and hybrids, were up 18% in the first three months of 2024 compared with the same period last year.
• Sales of hybrid vehicles, which have both electric motors and combustion engines, vastly outpaced those of full battery-powered alternatives, jumping 46% year over year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/china-drives-ev-boom-this-year-amid-strong-demand-for-hybrid-vehicles.html#:~:text=China drives EV boom this year amid strong demand for hybrid vehicles,-Published Tue, May&text=EV sales, including both fully,the same period last year.

 

[Roger830]

Contrary to popular myth - renewable energy production sources just surpassed coal and nuclear energy as a percentage according to the US EIA that tracks generation data:

View attachment 94890

Within the next 10 years - renewables will surpass natural gas and will likely constitute 75% of all US energy production - on up to close to 100% within 20 years best estimate. From an investment perspective, almost every dollar is going toward renewable energy production - particularly solar - since is now cheaper on a per kw basis than any other energy source - commercial solar is in point of fact now less expensive across the board - including production and transmission - than the mere transmission of all other power generation sources - let alone the generation costs. This is why there's almost no investment for production of other energy sources - because they are significantly more expensive to produce and to maintain and transmit. The move toward renewables makes the most financial sense, which is why it is inevitable regardless of the politics and opinions involved.

A problem that I have with the 10 year forecast is hydro has no growth and the offshore wind growth which had much promise is likely to stall because of much higher cost of new construction. Orsted lost 5 billion on structures, Siemens lost 5 billion for warranty repairs for failing bearings. GE 1 billion last year and another billion this year.

If bearings are failing now under warranty, what happens when warranties expire.

At the once promising wind farm in Palm Springs I noticed that many were not turning. Apparently once the investment tax credit expired, many owners abandoned the turbines.

 

[emeryjre]

Contrary to popular myth - renewable energy production sources just surpassed coal and nuclear energy as a percentage according to the US EIA that tracks generation data:

View attachment 94890

Within the next 10 years - renewables will surpass natural gas and will likely constitute 75% of all US energy production - on up to close to 100% within 20 years best estimate. From an investment perspective, almost every dollar is going toward renewable energy production - particularly solar - since is now cheaper on a per kw basis than any other energy source - commercial solar is in point of fact now less expensive across the board - including production and transmission - than the mere transmission of all other power generation sources - let alone the generation costs. This is why there's almost no investment for production of other energy sources - because they are significantly more expensive to produce and to maintain and transmit. The move toward renewables makes the most financial sense, which is why it is inevitable regardless of the politics and opinions involved.

The missing element you are not discussing is the storage of excess renewable energy during peak periods of renewable production.
In several regions of the country, renewable production exceeds demand
Except the production is at the wrong time of the day versus demand
The implementation of low cost, safe storage will make recyclable energy production practically seamless
A company that may play a role in this storage is Form Energy
Using a "Rust" based battery, it could be a major player in this market
Far less expensive than lithium batteries and longer lasting
Uses common materials
It is on my radar

Home

We are developing a new class of cost-effective, multi-day energy storage systems that will enable a reliable and fully-renewable electric grid year-round.

formenergy.com

 

[HitchHiker71]

The missing element you are not discussing is the storage of excess renewable energy during peak periods of renewable production.
In several regions of the country, renewable production exceeds demand
Except the production is at the wrong time of the day versus demand
The implementation of low cost, safe storage will make recyclable energy production practically seamless
A company that may play a role in this storage is Form Energy
Using a "Rust" based battery, it could be a major player in this market
Far less expensive than lithium batteries and longer lasting
Uses common materials
It is on my radar

Home

We are developing a new class of cost-effective, multi-day energy storage systems that will enable a reliable and fully-renewable electric grid year-round.

formenergy.com

I didn't bring it up but it's also well under way via Tesla megapacks - the fastest growing business segment under the Tesla umbrella at this time. Commercial energy storage via megapacks is relatively low cost - eliminates the need for peak energy fossil fuel plants which are very costly and expensive to maintain - and stores the energy when renewable production exceeds demand - for use during the average 3-5 hours when demand exceeds production. As newer battery pack tech gradually comes to market over many years - commercial mass storage arrays will continue to expand - tech like Sodium Ion batteries, "rust" based batteries, etc.

Supercapacitors are likely to change the entire landscape of battery packs as well - again over time - not so much for long term mass storage arrays - but for higher utilization/demand use cases like BEVs. There have been a few breakthroughs in supercapacitors recently that are promising -so the structure of vehicle battery packs could change to a combination of LI/LFP batteries coupled with supercapacitors which can handle much more rapid charging/discharging when compared to pure LI/LFP packs - the potential benefit being that you could charge your BEV in 2-3 minutes instead of 20-30 minutes. Basically the supercapacitors absorb a large amount of energy rapidly - and then charge the LI/LFP pack while you are back on the road in 2-3 minutes. This isn't anywhere close to production today, but we may see supercapacitor hybrid battery packs within 5-10 years best estimate.

 

[TolmiePeak]

The great thing is it’s all controlled via an app on your phone and you can set automatic preconditioning and charging schedules so the BEV HVAC and battery are charged and ready whenever you leave your home. We use the app to turn on the HVAC about five minutes before we are ready to depart any location so it’s just the right temp when we leave - regardless of where we are or what we are doing.


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I wish I could get A/C and heated seats on my bicycle. At least when I get cold I can peddle faster to build up heat. I haven't figured out the A/C part though.

 

[emeryjre]

I didn't bring it up but it's also well under way via Tesla megapacks - the fastest growing business segment under the Tesla umbrella at this time. Commercial energy storage via megapacks is relatively low cost - eliminates the need for peak energy fossil fuel plants which are very costly and expensive to maintain - and stores the energy when renewable production exceeds demand - for use during the average 3-5 hours when demand exceeds production. As newer battery pack tech gradually comes to market over many years - commercial mass storage arrays will continue to expand - tech like Sodium Ion batteries, "rust" based batteries, etc.

Supercapacitors are likely to change the entire landscape of battery packs as well - again over time - not so much for long term mass storage arrays - but for higher utilization/demand use cases like BEVs. There have been a few breakthroughs in supercapacitors recently that are promising -so the structure of vehicle battery packs could change to a combination of LI/LFP batteries coupled with supercapacitors which can handle much more rapid charging/discharging when compared to pure LI/LFP packs - the potential benefit being that you could charge your BEV in 2-3 minutes instead of 20-30 minutes. Basically the supercapacitors absorb a large amount of energy rapidly - and then charge the LI/LFP pack while you are back on the road in 2-3 minutes. This isn't anywhere close to production today, but we may see supercapacitor hybrid battery packs within 5-10 years best estimate.

The improvements are never ending
The technology announcements never stop
Some will never pan out
Some will change the course of business forever
We are in the early stages where non/low carbon energy production, distribution, usage, and costs are concerned

 

[TolmiePeak]

The improvements are never ending
The technology announcements never stop
Some will never pan out
Some will change the course of business forever
We are in the early stages where non/low carbon energy production, distribution, usage, and costs are concerned

Agreed but cars never work to provide mobility in dense urban environments. There isn't enough places to park them and the traffic is horrible.

 

[Brett]

I wish I could get A/C and heated seats on my bicycle. At least when I get cold I can peddle faster to build up heat. I haven't figured out the A/C part though.

Some ebikes have heated seats

China drives EV boom this year amid strong demand for hybrid vehicles​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/14/china-drives-ev-boom-this-year-amid-strong-demand-for-hybrid-vehicles.html#:~:text=China drives EV boom this year amid strong demand for hybrid vehicles,-Published Tue, May&text=EV sales, including both fully,the same period last year

 

[emeryjre]

Agreed but cars never work to provide mobility in dense urban environments. There isn't enough places to park them and the traffic is horrible.

I love riding a Segway
My bicycle days are limited at this point
Use to commute with a motorcycle 40 years ago

 

[HitchHiker71]

While new ev car sales are growing they really have a depreciation problem making them a bummer to get rid of after five years. They depreciate almost 40% on average in the first year where an ice depreciates on average 5%-!0% the first year. At five years the ev depreciates about 55% compared to under 40% with ice. At ten years an ev depreciates about 90% compared to about 50% with ice.

Since most people buy used cars it would seem to make sense that with the high depreciation the used ev's would sell in the used market but no one seem to want one without warranty unless it priced so low that it's disposable.

Bill

The only reason that BEVs depreciate faster is largely due to the fact that Tesla, by far the market leader, has cut prices significantly on all models over the past two years. Cuts to new model prices indirectly but reliably result in higher depreciation rates on preowned vehicles. As the price cuts level off as cost efficiencies level off, depreciation rates will stabilize in the process. It has little to do with demand as the naysayers tend to parrot.


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[HitchHiker71]

Agreed but cars never work to provide mobility in dense urban environments. There isn't enough places to park them and the traffic is horrible.

They do when self driving TaaS takes hold and only 25% of the vehicles currently on the road are required once humans no longer have to drive or have personally owned vehicles. Currently the average driver uses their personally owned vehicle a couple hours out of each day - or roughly 1/12 or roughly 8% of the day. TaaS would raise that to 80% of the day - which means significantly higher efficiencies and significantly less vehicles required on the road to accomplish the same daily driving requirements - especially in urban areas.


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[easyrider]

The only reason that BEVs depreciate faster is largely due to the fact that Tesla, by far the market leader, has cut prices significantly on all models over the past two years. Cuts to new model prices indirectly but reliably result in higher depreciation rates on preowned vehicles. As the price cuts level off as cost efficiencies level off, depreciation rates will stabilize in the process. It has little to do with demand as the naysayers tend to parrot.


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Come on man. You know no one is going to buy an out of regular warranty Tesla, meaning after year four, most every problem will become a liability. It has more to do with no one works on Tesla in most markets and the high costs of repairs. The common problems are steering / suspension, electrical components including motors and batteries, all of which are huge repair bills.

A Toyota bev is different in that many dealers do work on these. Even so, Toyota hybrids outsell Toyota bev's. I would consider a Toyota Hybrid to be a decent car at 10 years. I can't say the same for Tesla.

Bill

 

[TolmiePeak]

They do when self driving TaaS takes hold and only 25% of the vehicles currently on the road are required once humans no longer have to drive or have personally owned vehicles. Currently the average driver uses their personally owned vehicle a couple hours out of each day - or roughly 1/12 or roughly 8% of the day. TaaS would raise that to 80% of the day - which means significantly higher efficiencies and significantly less vehicles required on the road to accomplish the same daily driving requirements - especially in urban areas.


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It isn't going to work very well for trips with high directional splits. How many of those self driving cars that are dropping you off at a sporting event are going to pickup rides after you get out of the car?

 

[easyrider]

Within the next 10 years - renewables will surpass natural gas and will likely constitute 75% of all US energy production - on up to close to 100% within 20 years best estimate. From an investment perspective, almost every dollar is going toward renewable energy production - particularly solar - since is now cheaper on a per kw basis than any other energy source - commercial solar is in point of fact now less expensive across the board - including production and transmission - than the mere transmission of all other power generation sources - let alone the generation costs. This is why there's almost no investment for production of other energy sources - because they are significantly more expensive to produce and to maintain and transmit. The move toward renewables makes the most financial sense, which is why it is inevitable regardless of the politics and opinions involved.

This probably won't happen as you envision. The main problem with renewable energy is the infrastructure available to move the electricity doesn't exist. Infrastructure costs will double the current price of electricity. Solar farms and wind farms use large areas of land, usually in remote areas, that do not have infrastructure to the power grid.

The power from renewable energy isn't really renewable. Harnessing wind or solar requires a material intensive facility, with a 25 - 40 year lifespan, that requires maintenance throughout that lifespan. Germany tried and failed with wind and solar.

While regulations and tax incentives provide a reason for companies to invest in wind and solar energy in the USA , wind and solar are maybe 6% of global energy production. Most energy is produced by fossil fuels and the change should be to nuclear like in France where over 90% of their energy is reliable, clean, inexpensive nuclear energy.

Most of the old solar and wind farm waste is exported to countries or placed in landfills because it isn't cost effective to recycle them.

Bill

 

[Brett]

This EV weighs 55,000 pounds and digs giant holes​

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-solutions/2024/06/17/electric-construction-equipment/

"Construction equipment, a significant contributor to carbon emissions, is going electric. Here’s what it’s like behind the wheel.
All the usual power, minus the diesel
How are electric and diesel machines different?

"Volvo’s electric machines are very similar to its diesel machines, with the exception that their engines have been swapped out for batteries. The 55,000- pound electric excavator, for instance, has 264 kilowatt-hours of battery storage — the same as nine Mini Cooper EVs, or a little more than one electric Hummer

" The electric machine idled silently and its controls were slightly more responsive than the diesel one, because its electric motor can deliver power faster than a combustion engine — similar to the way an EV can accelerate faster than a gas-powered car. But both machines pulled dirt out of the ground with the same power.


"At the Molly Pitcher dairy farm five miles down the road from Volvo Construction Equipment, farmers use an electric wheel loader to move feed, clean out barn floors and help lift and maintain pumps. The farmers say it’s better for the cattle to be around quieter machinery. Plus, they can charge the battery free because the farm generates its own electricity using a device that converts manure into power.