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There is Hope: Germany’s Death Rate is 0.18%

bluehende

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Some doctors at Stanford are estimating the mortality rate from Covid-19 might actually only be 0.01%. They said: that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

Unfortunately Italy has lost a little over 0.01 percent of their whole population and deaths are growing. Since one area of that country Lombard is responsible for the lions share of deaths the death rate in that region is already well above that death rate. Their deaths are still rising too. The only good news is that the number of new infections is declining. Unfortunately that is only in the last few days and peak deaths will not happen for around 2 weeks. Hard to argue a 0,01% death rate when parts of italy will experience many times that in the entire population.
 

dioxide45

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This may be a naive question. I am curious why imported cases are better than locally transmitted cases? Once there are imported cases, it can lead to community transmission so why does it really matter?
From what I have seen/watched, China is sure to specify in their media that these are imported cases and not new cases. However they often leave out that these are Chinese nationals returning to China. Mainly because many Chinese nationals are returning home from other countries that are closing down. A lot about China is worrying. Check out serpentza on YouTube for some videos on the current topic regarding China.
 

pedro47

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I wish the government of China would tell the truth to the CDC and to the world, what is really going on inside of China about coronavirus?

Tell the Truth.
 

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I was able to view the "New Yorker" article by stopping the browser, then paging down.

Over the past 30 years or so, people from china have taken over much of the manufacturing of leather products such as high end, name brand hand bags selling for for over $1000. The factories are Chinese owned and are in northern Italy.

Often multiple levels of subcontracting is used with some being done by indentured workers that live in the shop, many not in the country legally. They work 12-14 hours a day where Italians work 7-8 hours at much higher wages.

It's my understanding that there was frequent travel between Northern Italy and China.
 
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geekette

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I wish the government of China would tell the truth to the CDC and to the world, what is really going on inside of China about coronavirus?

Tell the Truth.
I hear ya, but it kinda doesn't matter any more, we have our own tough truths.
 

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I hear ya, but it kinda doesn't matter any more, we have our own tough truths.
Exactly! The virus is a virus. It doesn’t have a nationality. And, our government knew of it in early January for sure, and possibly as early as November 2019. We don’t need another villain. The coronavirus is the villain!


Harry
 

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I wish the government of China would tell the truth to the CDC and to the world, what is really going on inside of China about coronavirus?

Tell the Truth.
I wouldn't count on it. This is all about saving face. The locals are supressing the data to keep favor with the central government.

 

TravelTime

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I wouldn't count on it. This is all about saving face. The locals are supressing the data to keep favor with the central government.

Doing more testing might help China's death rate to go down. One reason for Germany's lower death rate is they have done more testing.
 
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davidvel

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Some doctors at Stanford are estimating the mortality rate from Covid-19 might actually only be 0.01%. They said: that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

Please cite your source.
The death rate for influenza in the US is estimated to be about .1% (.001) on an annual basis.

The current death rate to tested positive infection is about 1.2% (.012). Many believe, and health authorities are reporting, that the number of those infected is 10X the number that have actually tested positive. That would equate to .12% (.012), much closer to the flu.

BUT, no one is saying the COVID19 death rate is, or will end up to be .01% (.0001), 10x less than the flu.
 

TravelTime

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Please cite your source.
The death rate for influenza in the US is estimated to be about .1% (.001) on an annual basis.

The current death rate to tested positive infection is about 1.2% (.012). Many believe, and health authorities are reporting, that the number of those infected is 10X the number that have actually tested positive. That would equate to .12% (.012), much closer to the flu.

BUT, no one is saying the COVID19 death rate is, or will end up to be .01% (.0001), 10x less than the flu.
The source is the article. It is an interesting article offering an alternate perspective.
 

TravelTime

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It's behind a paywall. Maybe you can quote just the part that supports your numbers?
It is not "my" numbers. The entire article describes how they came up with their number. It is a complex article that goes into all their assumptions about the number in different countries and why they are overestimated.

Here is an excerpt from the article but you really need to read the entire article to understand what they are saying.

"Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%"...


The authors them talk about a few additional countries. Then they say:

"How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors."


Then there are there more paragraphs where the authors talk about how, if they are right, then missing the mortality rate by orders of magnitude is causing poor decisions about how to handle the virus.

The authors are medical doctors from Stanford, not just opinion writers. But of course, this is their opinion based on their analysis of the data.
 

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In a way the comparison of death rates means nothing. It is so dependent on the denominator. The larger the number of people tested, the lower the death rate...

George
Yes, that is the point of the WSJ article I posted. The real death rate is much lower since many people have it and have not been tested. The death rate is being based on confirmed cases and that is based on how many people have been tested.
 

bluehende

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It is not "my" numbers. The entire article describes how they came up with their number. It is a complex article that goes into all their assumptions about the number in different countries and why they are overestimated.

Here is an excerpt from the article but you really need to read the entire article to understand what they are saying.

"Fear of Covid-19 is based on its high estimated case fatality rate—2% to 4% of people with confirmed Covid-19 have died, according to the World Health Organization and others. So if 100 million Americans ultimately get the disease, two million to four million could die. We believe that estimate is deeply flawed. The true fatality rate is the portion of those infected who die, not the deaths from identified positive cases.

The latter rate is misleading because of selection bias in testing. The degree of bias is uncertain because available data are limited. But it could make the difference between an epidemic that kills 20,000 and one that kills two million. If the number of actual infections is much larger than the number of cases—orders of magnitude larger—then the true fatality rate is much lower as well. That’s not only plausible but likely based on what we know so far.

Population samples from China, Italy, Iceland and the U.S. provide relevant evidence. On or around Jan. 31, countries sent planes to evacuate citizens from Wuhan, China. When those planes landed, the passengers were tested for Covid-19 and quarantined. After 14 days, the percentage who tested positive was 0.9%. If this was the prevalence in the greater Wuhan area on Jan. 31, then, with a population of about 20 million, greater Wuhan had 178,000 infections, about 30-fold more than the number of reported cases. The fatality rate, then, would be at least 10-fold lower than estimates based on reported cases.

Next, the northeastern Italian town of Vò, near the provincial capital of Padua. On March 6, all 3,300 people of Vò were tested, and 90 were positive, a prevalence of 2.7%. Applying that prevalence to the whole province (population 955,000), which had 198 reported cases, suggests there were actually 26,000 infections at that time. That’s more than 130-fold the number of actual reported cases. Since Italy’s case fatality rate of 8% is estimated using the confirmed cases, the real fatality rate could in fact be closer to 0.06%"...


The authors them talk about a few additional countries. Then they say:

"How can we reconcile these estimates with the epidemiological models? First, the test used to identify cases doesn’t catch people who were infected and recovered. Second, testing rates were woefully low for a long time and typically reserved for the severely ill. Together, these facts imply that the confirmed cases are likely orders of magnitude less than the true number of infections. Epidemiological modelers haven’t adequately adapted their estimates to account for these factors."


Then there are there more paragraphs where the authors talk about how, if they are right, then missing the mortality rate by orders of magnitude is causing poor decisions about how to handle the virus.

The authors are medical doctors from Stanford, not just opinion writers. But of course, this is their opinion based on their analysis of the data.
The one thing I will criticize is that unless it is in the article and not quoted is that comparing todays test results with todays death rates is off. Death comes up to 21 days after positive test. The average seems to be 14. You need to correlate deaths now with cases as of 14 days ago. So use those two numbers and make an assumption as to the number of cases not detected you get closer to the real number.

Hopefully the measures being taken now keep the total deaths into flu like numbers. It may be time to admit though that the flu is a disease that is dangerous. The flu is the devil we know so therefor fear levels are tamped down. The bottom line is we should worry more about the flu too. Yes covid 19 is a flu like disease. One we have no antibodies toward and transmits easier (probably those two are linked). Luckily for me at my age we actually do not do what is better for the species and allow these things to cull the herd.
 

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Earlier in posts 18, 45, 49 I talked about how my sister in law caught corona while visiting her 93 year old mother in law who was on oxygen and developed corona.

Initially her husband didn't have symptoms, but as she was improving, his appeared.

The mother in law died Wednesday from corona and was laid to rest Friday,

It's a very sad time for many.
 
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TravelTime

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Earlier in posts 18, 45, 49 I talked about how my sister in law caught corona while visiting her 93 year old mother in law who was on oxygen.
Initially her husband didn't have symptoms, but as she was improving, his appeared.

The mother in law died Wednesday and was laid to rest Friday, no embalming. My sister and brother in law watched from the car while self quarantined.


It's a very sad time for many.
I am so sorry to read about this. This virus is a terrible thing. The worst part is that families can not give proper burials and memorials for their loved ones. It is definitely a very sad time.
 

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To the OP TravelTime. We are Too early to drill down on actual death rate! The numbers out of China are not accurate whatsoever! Chinese communist Gov't are Propaganda Peddlers and you should know better. It will be years before we get the actual death rate in Germany or in any country. We know now that this virus is deadly. We won't know until we get accurate numbers on all test results..... Excluding China. China has not fessed up to their true number of fatalities. No need to reply to my post. Not in the mood.
 

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Earlier in posts 18, 45, 49 I talked about how my sister in law caught corona while visiting her 93 year old mother in law who was on oxygen and developed corona.

Initially her husband didn't have symptoms, but as she was improving, his appeared.

The mother in law died Wednesday from corona and was laid to rest Friday, no embalming. My sister and brother in law watched from the car while self quarantined.


It's a very sad time for many.
Sorry for the loss. How do people self quarantine in a car? Sad but they should have stayed at home.
 

Panina

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Earlier in posts 18, 45, 49 I talked about how my sister in law caught corona while visiting her 93 year old mother in law who was on oxygen and developed corona.

Initially her husband didn't have symptoms, but as she was improving, his appeared.

The mother in law died Wednesday from corona and was laid to rest Friday, no embalming. My sister and brother in law watched from the car while self quarantined.


It's a very sad time for many.
I am so sorry to hear this, my condolences to your family.
 
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