There is Hope: Germany’s Death Rate is 0.18%

[TravelTime]

In The NY Times, it was reported that Germany’s official count of coronavirus infections jumped 34 percent from Wednesday to Thursday, reaching 10,999. Germany’s fatality rate remains strikingly low, with 20 dead to date.

 

[Sandy VDH]

Number of deaths in Germany is low, but this site, which is run by Johns Hopkins has it double that number.

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[TravelTime]

Number of deaths in Germany is low, but this site, which is run by Johns Hopkins has it double that number.

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Based on this website, the death rate is still low because they are reporting more confirmed cases. The death rate here is 0.29%.

 

[Sandy VDH]

Based on this website, the death rate is still low because they are reporting more confirmed cases. The death rate here is 0.29%.

Not disputing the death rate %, just that the data was different than the source I had been using. Not sure what source the NY Times was using as you did not include the article.

 

[am1]

Depends at what level of sickness people are tested.

 

[geekette]

numbers will change daily. even hourly.

 

[Roger830]

In NY, the death rate is 32/5637 = 0.0057.
By looking at various countries and states, I've been thinking that the actual death rate is less than 1/2 of 1 %.
It could be much lower, the deaths are known, we don't know the number of cases.

Coronavirus Dashboard

Live coronavirus dashboard tracker. See data, maps, social media trends, and learn about prevention measures.

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[TravelTime]

Not disputing the death rate %, just that the data was different that source I had been using. Not sure what source the NY Times was using as you did not include the article.

Your source is probably more up to date since numbers are changing so rapidly. I am hopeful the death rate is much lower than people are predicting.

 

[VacationForever]

I think death rate is a function of whether there are enough hospital beds and ventilators. Last I checked Singapore has ZERO death rate. Some of the patients have been there for more than a month. I think their mentality is to do everything in their power to not let one die.

 

[T-Dot-Traveller]

In The NY Times, it was reported that Germany’s official count of coronavirus infections jumped 34 percent from Wednesday to Thursday, reaching 10,999. Germany’s fatality rate remains strikingly low, with 20 dead to date.

Germany has a strong “tool & dye manufacturing” base / Angela Merkel ordered 10,000 ventilators about
2 weeks ago - direct from a mfg. Dragerwerk AG - to go to hospitals asap .IMO - her intent was to bypass the delays of a tendering process .

 

[b2bailey]

I think death rate is a function of whether there are enough hospital beds and ventilators. Last I checked Singapore has ZERO death rate. Some of the patients have been there for more than a month. I think their mentality is to do everything in their power to not let one die.

Recent report of under 40 man who died in CA (while on ventilator) would suggest sometimes doing everything possible is not enough.

 

[Sandy VDH]

Another scary statistic for Italy, it has now exceed the number dead in Hubei province, which includes Wuhan. Italy also has now only identified about 2/3 the total positive cases that Hubei has (41K vs 67K), making it far deadlier Virus in Italy.

 

[Roger830]

Gov Cuomo reported the latest figures for NY, 10300 with 56 dead.
56 / 10300 = 0.0054 or 0.54%

It's likely that there are also many cases that are unreported, so the actual death rate still appears to be less than 1/2 of 1%.
Germany now is 70 / 20142 = 0.0035 or 0.35%

Of course many more would have died without hospital care, so hopefully we'll keep the infection rate down.

10,300 today, 8516 yesterday, 5637, 2914 prior days. Deaths 56 53 36 21

 

[Passepartout]

I think the death rate can be a somewhat squishy number. Especially with many (most?) of the fatalities being elderly and with underlying health issues. Some of those fatalities in that age group MAY expire WITH positive COVID-19 test, but not necessarily FROM it.

 

[bnoble]

Trying to talk about fatality rates when (a) we are still in exponential growth and (b) are still ramping up testing is likely to be misleading.

 

[DannyTS]

Recent report of under 40 man who died in CA (while on ventilator) would suggest sometimes doing everything possible is not enough.

People under 40 die every day, without seeing the medical chart the information does not mean anything. This is part of the problem, the information is disseminated by the media in a totally unfiltered manner

 

[DannyTS]

Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19

Read the full story and don’t panic.

medium.com

 

[Roger830]

Trying to talk about fatality rates when (a) we are still in exponential growth and (b) are still ramping up testing is likely to be misleading.

The reason that I've talking about the death rate is the early reports were 3.5% fatalities.
Looking at Europe without Italy, I suspected that it was too high because of limited testing. If you only test the people that die, It's 100%.

My sister in law was tested yesterday because of symptoms. No results yet.
Her Mother in law is in the hospital with it.
When her and her husband visited, his two brothers were coughing. They are not in the hospital. Don't know if they were tested, but not sick now.

 

[clifffaith]

I think the death rate can be a somewhat squishy number. Especially with many (most?) of the fatalities being elderly and with underlying health issues. Some of those fatalities in that age group MAY expire WITH positive COVID-19 test, but not necessarily FROM it.

My dad has been in hospice care for a year -- circling the drain with one foot on a banana peel. Asthma, COPD, congestive heart failure -- if he dies at this time we won't feel like CV killed him, even if he tests positive.

 

[Roger830]

Three people at a retirement community in Greenport have died from the coronavirus.
A 96-year-old woman who lived at Peconic Landing died Wednesday. A 97-year-woman and a 96-year-old man both died Thursday.

3 residents of same Greenport retirement community die from virus

Three people at a retirement community in Greenport have died from the coronavirus.

longisland.news12.com

It certainly begs the question, did these die from corona or a combination of factors.
We certain need more data. In NY, 56 died and here's three 96, 96 97.
I recall that the early deaths had extenuating circumstances.

 

[TravelTime]

Playing devil’s advocate. I am sort of wondering why the experts think Covid-19 is so dangerous or deadly. In China, 3200 people out of close to 1.5 billion people have died. This is so small that I can’t even calculate a percentage. It rounds up to 0.00%. Same with Germany, 92 deaths out of 82 million people. China might be a better indicator than Germany since China has more or less contained the spread. I understand that the percentage of people dying out of those infected is high in some countries but the total mortality rate is minuscule.

 

[DavidnRobin]

Because there are hot spots within these large geographical areas.

Be careful with just dividing these numbers by total populations.
See Italy (north vs.south).

Testing proceeds positives - positives proceed recovery/mortality. These events lag one another by days.

Trying to predict outcomes during exponential growth, with these lags and lack of testing, is likely to lead to inaccurate predictions - even by the best statisticians. And any statistician worth their salt, and free of bias, would agree.


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[b2bailey]

Three people at a retirement community in Greenport have died from the coronavirus.
A 96-year-old woman who lived at Peconic Landing died Wednesday. A 97-year-woman and a 96-year-old man both died Thursday.

3 residents of same Greenport retirement community die from virus

Three people at a retirement community in Greenport have died from the coronavirus.

longisland.news12.com

It certainly begs the question, did these die from corona or a combination of factors.
We certain need more data. In NY, 56 died and here's three 96, 96 97.
I recall that the early deaths had extenuating circumstances.

This info begs the question I keep asking but nobody wants to play along.
What if the reason these seniors died was because they had end of life instructions that clearly stated they did not want to be hooked up to a ventilator? I keep expecting to see something in the news about this. Like a mention to check your own personal instructions to be sure you would be allowed to be hooked up to a ventilator.

 

[Roger830]

This info begs the question I keep asking but nobody wants to play along.
What if the reason these seniors died was because they had end of life instructions that clearly stated they did not want to be hooked up to a ventilator? I keep expecting to see something in the news about this. Like a mention to check your own personal instructions to be sure you would be allowed to be hooked up to a ventilator.

My wife has a living will saying no ventilator and had been urging me to get one.
I didn't want to remind her about it, she's scarred enough. My thinking is that I won't tell anyone about it if she has corona. I don't know if it's on file anywhere.

I suspect the many of those in nursing homes must have living wills.

 

[b2bailey]

My wife has a living will saying no ventilator and had been urging me to get one.
I didn't want to remind her about it, she's scarred enough. My thinking is that I won't tell anyone about it if she has corona. I don't know if it's on file anywhere.

I suspect the many of those in nursing homes must have living wills.

Roger, yes. This is my point. ALL of the patients had end of life instructions on file. They won't admit you to a nursing home without. Oh, just remembered the name of form Advance Medical Directives. Not as complicated as living will, just a form to complete and sign.