There is Hope: Germany’s Death Rate is 0.18%

[CPNY]

My guess is people are already infected and do not know it. Policies start after people are infected. My guess is Italy, Spain USA are past the point of containment.

Correct. Then there are those that are infected and won’t be able to be tested. The numbers are much much higher. People are alarmed at the amount in nyc. I’m surprised they aren’t higher.

 

[Roger830]

I'm not even going to look at the reported figures anymore.

Yesterday in posts 45 and 49 I talked about my sister in law who has corona virus and is recovering nicely.
Her husband now has all of the symptoms. He talked to his doctor about getting tested, the doctor told him to assume that he has it and act accordingly.

Sunday Gov Cuomo said that they are only going to test people in the hospital.

My assumption is the that the actual number of cases vastly outnumbers the reported cases and the majority of deaths are people with other health issues and/or old.

 

[geekette]

Okay, when you write " this will increase before it gets better" -- I have to say why? Can't we hope that somehow our efforts will sustain that lower rate? I am more motivated by a positive, hopeful approach.

I would say it mostly has to do with our testing. At this point, most have to be admitted to the hospital to get tested. It is more likely that an admitted patient will die than someone with mild symptoms that doesn't ever get tested, never sees a doctor. Deaths per tests will remain a high number.

 

[geekette]

There is alot of speculation as to the conspiracy theory with China's fake numbers. My former staff who is currently in Shanghai with his family confirmed through FB private message with me that there are no new internal cases within China. He is also a permanent resident in Canada and was planning on going back to Canada after Chinese New Year and they are now stuck there.

Confirmed? meaning, they are part of ministry of health there with front line knowledge?

 

[VacationForever]

Confirmed? meaning, they are part of ministry of health there with front line knowledge?

Well, he is an IT guy, lives in Shanghai and is 100% sure that there are no new infections in Shanghai. The rest of the news he got through "underground" network of friends in the country.

 

[TravelTime]

Well, he is an IT guy, lives in Shanghai and is 100% sure that there are no new infections in Shanghai. The rest of the news he got through "underground" network of friends in the country.

Does he believe the numbers in China are as accurate as possible? Or do the locals think it is a conspiracy and the Chinese are still hiding something?

 

[VacationForever]

Does he believe the numbers in China are as accurate as possible? Or do the locals think it is a conspiracy and the Chinese are still hiding something?

He does believe the numbers are accurate and does not believe the Chinese are hiding the numbers. Don't forget that they locked down entire cities and people were prohibited from leaving their homes.

He confirmed that they are moving freely in Shanghai now. It triggered me to ask him when back in February he showed a video of his daughter riding a kiddy bicycle in the park with "Life is almost back to normal in Shanghai". His daughter was wearing a mask in the video.

 

[Mongoose]

There is alot of speculation as to the conspiracy theory with China's fake numbers. My former staff who is currently in Shanghai with his family confirmed through FB private message with me that there are no new internal cases within China. He is also a permanent resident in Canada and was planning on going back to Canada after Chinese New Year and they are now stuck

My guess is people are already infected and do not know it. Policies start after people are infected. My guess is Italy, Spain USA are past the point of containment.

Okay, when you write " this will increase before it gets better" -- I have to say why? Can't we hope that somehow our efforts will sustain that lower rate? I am more motivated by a positive, hopeful approach.

Hope is good. The issue is the up to 2 week lag between exposure and symptoms.

 

[Mongoose]

He does believe the numbers are accurate and does not believe the Chinese are hiding the numbers. Don't forget that they locked down entire cities and people were prohibited from leaving their homes.

He confirmed that they are moving freely in Shanghai now. It triggered me to ask him when back in February he showed a video of his daughter riding a kiddy bicycle in the park with "Life is almost back to normal in Shanghai". His daughter was wearing a mask in the video.

I hope they are right. But these usually come in waves.

 

[VacationForever]

I hope they are right. But these usually come in waves.

They have not had new infections for more than a week already. All new cases are imported, i.e. people flying into China, and they are quarantined.

 

[TravelTime]

I have been asking all my clients how they are feeling about the coronavirus. So far, none of them are worried about getting sick. They are all anxious about when the shutdown will end and how daily life will be when the SIP ends. They are afraid of the uncertainty and how they can plan their lives. One mentioned some worries about their family members but that was not her main worry. My clients are not in high risk age groups with underlying conditions so this might be why they are not expressing worry about getting sick. They are all following the recommendations about staying at home. I wonder if Tuggers are more worried about illness and death because the average age here is older and many Tuggers have mentioned having underlying conditions.

 

[Panina]

I have been asking all my clients how they are feeling about the coronavirus. So far, none of them are worried about getting sick. They are all anxious about when the shutdown will end and how daily life will be when the SIP ends. They are afraid of the uncertainty and how they can plan their lives. One mentioned some worries about their family members but that was not her main worry. My clients are not in high risk age groups with underlying conditions so this might be why they are not expressing worry about getting sick. They are all following the recommendations about staying at home. I wonder if Tuggers are more worried about illness and death because the average age here is older and many Tuggers have mentioned having underlying conditions.

I am worried about both. As this goes on I am seeing stories of the young dying too.

 

[Mongoose]

They have not had new infections for more than a week already. All new cases are imported, i.e. people flying into China, and they are quarantined.
[/QUO

Sounds awful! Mind citing your source so we can read more about it?


Harry

Regarding travel?

Hukou System Explained: China's Internal Passport

The Communist Party of China implemented the Hukou System to help bring about economic stability and growth. Today, it contributes to the Poverty Crisis.

projectpartner.org

China’s surreal virus hospital claims

China has dismissed reports likening its makeshift coronavirus hospitals to “concentration camps” as inventions of a “biased" foreign media.

www.news.com.au

 

[Mongoose]

They have not had new infections for more than a week already. All new cases are imported, i.e. people flying into China, and they are quarantined.

They had 78 new cases on Monday in Wuhan.

 

[geekette]

I have been asking all my clients how they are feeling about the coronavirus. So far, none of them are worried about getting sick. They are all anxious about when the shutdown will end and how daily life will be when the SIP ends. They are afraid of the uncertainty and how they can plan their lives. One mentioned some worries about their family members but that was not her main worry. My clients are not in high risk age groups with underlying conditions so this might be why they are not expressing worry about getting sick. They are all following the recommendations about staying at home. I wonder if Tuggers are more worried about illness and death because the average age here is older and many Tuggers have mentioned having underlying conditions.

I am much more concerned about others than I am for myself (like my mother). I fear we are Italy. I am bracing for what may be coming here.

I've been hunkered since late Feb to be on far end of the curve. I'm sure I'll get sick but I don't think it would kill me. I have been wrong before.

 

[VacationForever]

The had 78 new cases on Monday in Wuhan.

Hubei relaxes restrictions as China's new coronavirus infections double

China's Hubei province where the coronavirus pandemic originated will lift travel restrictions on people leaving the region as the epidemic there eases, but other regions will tighten controls as new cases double due to imported infections.

www.reuters.com

78 new cases total in China, 74 imported. One new infection in Wuhan.

 

[Mongoose]

Hubei relaxes restrictions as China's new coronavirus infections double

China's Hubei province where the coronavirus pandemic originated will lift travel restrictions on people leaving the region as the epidemic there eases, but other regions will tighten controls as new cases double due to imported infections.

www.reuters.com

78 new cases total in China, 74 imported. One new infection in Wuhan.

What's your point? They had another 47 today.

 

[VacationForever]

What's your point? They had another 47 today.

The point is imported cases is different from internal infection. All 47 are imported. What is your point? You cannot understand the difference between imported cases and local infections.

 

[TravelTime]

The point is imported cases is different from internal infection. All 47 are imported. What is your point? You cannot understand the difference between imported cases and local infections.

This may be a naive question. I am curious why imported cases are better than locally transmitted cases? Once there are imported cases, it can lead to community transmission so why does it really matter?

 

[VacationForever]

This may be a naive question. I am curious why imported cases are better than locally transmitted cases? Once there are imported cases, it can lead to community transmission so why does it really matter?

A country like China screens people coming into the country. They get tested and quarantined, before they can spread to the community. In other words imported cases are contained. There is no community spread as a result. If it is not an imported case, it means that there is community spread, which means it is likely to be widespread, anyone can catch it and the virus is still not under control.

 

[b2bailey]

There is alot of speculation as to the conspiracy theory with China's fake numbers. My former staff who is currently in Shanghai with his family confirmed through FB private message with me that there are no new internal cases within China. He is also a permanent resident in Canada and was planning on going back to Canada after Chinese New Year and they are now stuck there.

Bill Gates recently addressed this question in an interview. He believes accurate numbers are now being reported. I think he has the connections to know.

 

[b2bailey]

I am much more concerned about others than I am for myself (like my mother). I fear we are Italy. I am bracing for what may be coming here.

I've been hunkered since late Feb to be on far end of the curve. I'm sure I'll get sick but I don't think it would kill me. I have been wrong before.

But, if you are wrong, it will be the last time.
(Laughter is the best medicine. )

 

[bluehende]

This may be a naive question. I am curious why imported cases are better than locally transmitted cases? Once there are imported cases, it can lead to community transmission so why does it really matter?

Imported infections will not show an exponential curve of new infections. If it moves again through community transfer it can start a second wave.

 

[geekette]

But, if you are wrong, it will be the last time.
(Laughter is the best medicine. )

Yes, laughter as meds. It has been weeks ago now, but I called up my mother to make sure she was staying home, then pulled something on her. "I was wondering if you wanted to go on a cruise, because they are offering really big specials - buy 3 nights, get 14 free!!"

 

[TravelTime]

Some doctors at Stanford are estimating the mortality rate from Covid-19 might actually only be 0.01%. They said: that’s a mortality rate of 0.01%, assuming a two week lag between infection and death. This is one-tenth of the flu mortality rate of 0.1%. Such a low death rate would be cause for optimism.

Opinion | Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?

Current estimates about the Covid-19 fatality rate may be too high by orders of magnitude.

www.wsj.com