Study shows that PCR tests with 35 cycles or more have an accuracy below 3%, meaning up to 97% of positive results could be false positives.

[cman]

lockdowns, closing schools, massive testing and contact tracing etc. If those had worked I would have moved on a long time ago.

Targeted restrictions have worked in several of the Asian countries. Several of them have reached full containment of the virus. Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, even Mongolia had a better response to this pandemic than most of the western nations. Why? Because they were prepared. And get this. Some of them did it without a lockdown.

Based on what we're seeing in the USA and Sweden, both countries serve as examples of how not to respond to a pandemic.

 

[rickandcindy23]

.... but... “the science is settled!”

I went out to dinner last night. Indoor dining BANNED in Illinois. But ate in this ridiculous enclosed 4-sided tent. How is that not indoor dining? All the expense of the restaurant that had to have spent tens of thousands of dollars for tents, heaters, etc. It's a charade and all for optics.

Our son and DIL have reservations at Perry's 12/31, their favorite steakhouse in Lone Tree, CO, and she said you literally go through the restaurant to get to their outdoor "tent" but that is what the state required they do. Sounds similar. Our governor has lost his mind.

 

[Cornell]

Our son and DIL have reservations at Perry's 12/31, their favorite steakhouse in Lone Tree, CO, and she said you literally go through the restaurant to get to their outdoor "tent" but that is what the state required they do. Sounds similar. Our governor has lost his mind.

YUP. And last night the restaurant has took our temps at the host stand. OK , fine. But then we were asked "have you traveled out of state in the last 14 days". HUH? How does this help anyone...especially since our local leaders are now blaming spread within households, not travel. And what if I had traveled, but not out of state? Is that LESS harmful? Again - it's a charade.

 

[rickandcindy23]

Targeted restrictions have worked in several of the Asian countries. Several of them have reached full containment of the virus. Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, even Mongolia had a better response to this pandemic than most of the western nations. Why? Because they were prepared. And get this. Some of them did it without a lockdown.

Based on what we're seeing in the USA and Sweden, both countries serve as examples of how not to respond to a pandemic.

In what way? We in CO have have mandatory masks, things are shut down, and we have more Covid cases, supposedly, than most of the states. I believe 1) testing is faulty, 2) cold weather may play a part in spreading, 3) people are sick of the lockdowns and are trying to move on with their lives.

I am 65, I have never seen anything as crazy as this. The sick and old should stay home, but only if they want to stay home. My MIL also kept saying she had never experienced a loss of freedom as we have in these times. God rest her soul, she was 92 when she died of a stroke on 7/30 because her life changed completely from the lockdowns. She was not active anymore. Her life was best lived by going shopping, eating several lunches a week with her friends, and coming to our house. She still did some of that, but she was sad and lonely. We talked to her every day. The last month we took her to her favorite restaurant twice. She loved the extra hot green chili at Los Arcos. She got me eating it too. It burned my mouth and made my nose run, but it's so good.

 

[Ken555]

I feel as though I’ve entered a Twilight Zone episode where every thread has the same posts.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[TravelTime]

In what way? We in CO have have mandatory masks, things are shut down, and we have more Covid cases, supposedly, than most of the states. I believe 1) testing is faulty, 2) cold weather may play a part in spreading, 3) people are sick of the lockdowns and are trying to move on with their lives.

I am 65, I have never seen anything as crazy as this. The sick and old should stay home, but only if they want to stay home. My MIL also kept saying she had never experienced a loss of freedom as we have in these times. God rest her soul, she was 92 when she died of a stroke on 7/30 because her life changed completely from the lockdowns. She was not active anymore. Her life was best lived by going shopping, eating several lunches a week with her friends, and coming to our house. She still did some of that, but she was sad and lonely. We talked to her every day. The last month we took her to her favorite restaurant twice. She loved the extra hot green chili at Los Arcos. She got me eating it too. It burned my mouth and made my nose run, but it's so good.

It is so sad that your MIL passed away during Covid. I am glad you got to do some special things with her at the end.

 

[Brett]

I feel as though I’ve entered a Twilight Zone episode where every thread has the same posts.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

really ...

hope the vaccines work

 

[DannyTS]

Targeted restrictions have worked in several of the Asian countries. Several of them have reached full containment of the virus. Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, even Mongolia had a better response to this pandemic than most of the western nations. Why? Because they were prepared. And get this. Some of them did it without a lockdown.

Based on what we're seeing in the USA and Sweden, both countries serve as examples of how not to respond to a pandemic.

Actually Tanzania has done better than Mongolia, Vietnam, Thailand. Especially after they discovered that papaya, a goat and a parrot tested positive for Covid . I doubt Vietnam and Thailand have reached any containment because of the the measures. Anyone who has been to Bangkok, who has seen how ordinary people live and how they eat knows that can only be a bedtime story. Do you believe there is testing in Thailand like in the US? In Bangkok they tested a number of people because of an outbreak at a shrimp market. 43% of the tests came back positive (90% of those positive had no symptoms). Just think about the amount of false positives there. Or if you want to take the other side of the argument, how many have been infected in the last few months and they have never known.

 

[DannyTS]

In what way? We in CO have have mandatory masks, things are shut down, and we have more Covid cases, supposedly, than most of the states. I believe 1) testing is faulty, 2) cold weather may play a part in spreading, 3) people are sick of the lockdowns and are trying to move on with their lives.

I am 65, I have never seen anything as crazy as this. The sick and old should stay home, but only if they want to stay home. My MIL also kept saying she had never experienced a loss of freedom as we have in these times. God rest her soul, she was 92 when she died of a stroke on 7/30 because her life changed completely from the lockdowns. She was not active anymore. Her life was best lived by going shopping, eating several lunches a week with her friends, and coming to our house. She still did some of that, but she was sad and lonely. We talked to her every day. The last month we took her to her favorite restaurant twice. She loved the extra hot green chili at Los Arcos. She got me eating it too. It burned my mouth and made my nose run, but it's so good.

RIP your MIL. I wonder how many people actually died like that, not because of Covid but because of the crazy times we live in. We always hear about couples who die within weeks (not covid related) even if the second one had no life threatening condition. A reason to hang on is a big part of a long and happy life and some have probably seen enough on this side of the world. I always look at the excess deaths from the spring with a very critical eye. We know that the virus had been circulating in the US for 2-3 months before March and millions had been infected already. Than how come the number of deaths started to go up mid March, the same as the lockdown and not before? February was actually a month with lower deaths than normal. Go figure.

 

[Cornell]

As COVID-19 explodes, was California too strict for its own good?

How did it all go wrong for the state that issued the nation's first stay-at-home order?...

www.sfgate.com

 

[DannyTS]

“Surprisingly, the deaths of older people stayed the same before and after COVID-19,” said the News-Letter’s article. “Since COVID-19 mainly affects the elderly, experts expected an increase in the percentage of deaths in older age groups. However, this increase is not seen from the CDC data. In fact, the percentages of deaths among all age groups remain relatively the same.”


Though deaths in categories like respiratory illnesses and heart disease seasonally rise and fall together in the United States, Briand noticed a strange trend.


“Instead of the expected drastic increase across all causes, there was a significant decrease in deaths due to heart disease,” in addition to “all other causes.” Additionally, “the total decrease in deaths by other causes almost exactly equals the increase in deaths by COVID-19.”


“All of this points to no evidence that COVID-19 created any excess deaths. Total death numbers are not above normal death numbers. We found no evidence to the contrary,” Briand concluded in her presentation. She told the News-Letter that “a decreased number of heart attacks and all the other death causes doesn’t give us a choice but to point to some misclassification.”

Johns Hopkins newspaper removes study examining COVID death rate

Johns Hopkins University’s student newspaper staff retracted an article featuring a university study claiming that COVID-19 did not significantly increase the U.S. death rate.

campusreform.org

 

[DannyTS]

A recent study projects that the (over)reaction to Covid will cause about 1 million deaths in the United States over the next 15 years

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf

 

[Rjbeach2003]

Life expectancy had been estimated to increase by .08% in 2020, mainly because of the improvement in cancer treatments, (CDC). In fact life expectancy has declined by 1.3%. So since these asset economists, at least that's what their university positions say they are, say fewer 65+ died in 2020 than in 2019 there must have been a dramatic increase in ages 64 and under. That is amazing since the largest age group to die because of covid are 65+.
It's tough Danny when just because you pull something off the internet it doesn't tell all the story. I'm going to go search results for Bigfoot sightings.

 

[Brett]

A recent study projects that the (over)reaction to Covid will cause about 1 million deaths in the United States over the next 15 years



View attachment 31233

https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w28304/w28304.pdf

Life expectancy had been estimated to increase by .08% in 2020, mainly because of the improvement in cancer treatments, (CDC). In fact life expectancy has declined by 1.3%. So since these asset economists, at least that's what their university positions say they are, say fewer 65+ died in 2020 than in 2019 there must have been a dramatic increase in ages 64 and under. That is amazing since the largest age group to die because of covid are 65+.
It's tough Danny when just because you pull something off the internet it doesn't tell all the story. I'm going to go search results for Bigfoot sightings.

I hope Sweden didn't have an (over) reaction

.......... and Bigfoot sightings

Sweden reports record daily number of COVID-19 deaths

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-infection-rate-may-have-peaked-idUSKBN29J1NZ

 

[DannyTS]

I hope Sweden didn't have an (over) reaction

.......... and Bigfoot sightings

Sweden reports record daily number of COVID-19 deaths

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...-infection-rate-may-have-peaked-idUSKBN29J1NZ

still doing a LOT better than the US with no lockdowns.

 

[DannyTS]

Life expectancy had been estimated to increase by .08% in 2020, mainly because of the improvement in cancer treatments, (CDC). In fact life expectancy has declined by 1.3%. So since these asset economists, at least that's what their university positions say they are, say fewer 65+ died in 2020 than in 2019 there must have been a dramatic increase in ages 64 and under. That is amazing since the largest age group to die because of covid are 65+.
It's tough Danny when just because you pull something off the internet it doesn't tell all the story. I'm going to go search results for Bigfoot sightings.

So a study by researchers at Harvard, Duke and Johns Hopkins University is "something off the internet". I did not know Bigfoot lived in Boston but hey, you seem to know everything and your sources are not from the internet so they must be real.

I have seen other articles claiming that back in the spring most of the excess deaths came from people under 65 which is indeed odd since the vast majority of those that die from Covid are either very old or have comorbidities or both you are right about that. Their conclusion was that the majority could not be Covid deaths, just labeled so.

 

[DannyTS]

It appears that WHO is preparing to end the pandemic! If they reduce the number of cycles, or their interpretation, and it seems they are going in that direction, less infected people, problem solved! Why only now when they have known for months that the high number of cycles was a problem? Of course do not expect the change overnight but expect more announcements in the weeks to come. All the deniers (who said this was not a problem) are welcome to comment.

"Description of the problem: WHO requests users to follow the instructions for use (IFU) when interpreting results for specimens tested using PCR methodology.

Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is recommended by the manufacturer.
WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology."

WHO Information Notice for Users 2020/05

Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2 Date: 13 January 2021 WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2 Target audience: laboratory professionals and...

www.who.int

 

[Conan]

So rather than 420,000 dead per 21,000,000 infected (2 dead per 100) maybe it’s say 420,000 dead per 2,100,000 infected (20 dead per 100).

And your point is....?

 

[DannyTS]

So rather than 420,000 dead per 21,000,000 infected (2 dead per 100) maybe it’s say 420,000 dead per 2,100,000 infected (20 dead per 100).

And your point is....?

My point is rather obvious but I will be happy to elaborate. When 90% of the official Covid victims were already very sick, generally very old and with several comorbidities, don't you think that a lower number of positives would also affect the official number of new Covid deaths?

I hope we understand one another, we are talking about the future, nobody will go back to the numbers recorded already. Just to follow your example say if they do change the cycle threshold at one point and the number of positives goes down dramatically (all other factors being equal), don't you think that the number of new Covid deaths will also go down? I do not know if it will be 90% and it probably won't be but it will be significant.

By the way, I am not saying that WHO and the CDC will change the recommendations for sure. But there is a decent chance and you should be looking for that kind of news in the next 8-12 weeks.

 

[Conan]

if they do change the cycle threshold at one point and the number of positives goes down dramatically (all other factors being equal), don't you think that the number of new Covid deaths will also go down? I do not know if it will be 90% and it probably won't be but it will be significant.

And excess deaths, you think they’ll go down?

USA TODAY

amp.usatoday.com

 

[DannyTS]

And excess deaths, you think they’ll go down?

USA TODAY

amp.usatoday.com

When the hospitals were half empty last spring, when people are stressed they cannot pay rent or their mortgage or put food on the table, when people cannot see their loved ones and have a half decent social life, when a large number of basic medical screenings only take place online (or worse, they do not take place at all), when the number of overdoses has gone up, don't you think those also contribute to the excess deaths? How many people did not die alone at home from heart attacks (or went to the hospital when it was too late)

We only have the official overdose numbers until May 2020 (but we have last week Covid numbers!!!). Still, they report big increases from March to May

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/12/cdc-drug-overdose-deaths-in-2020-on-track-to-break-record.html

 

[Conan]

I'll soon give up on this dialogue, but here's the data chart from the article your New York Magazine clipping was based on.
At least through May 2020, I don't see any connection between the stress and isolation you describe and our U.S. overdose ten-year trend.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db394-H.pdf

 

[DannyTS]

I'll soon give up on this dialogue, but here's the data chart from the article your New York Magazine clipping was based on.
At least through May 2020, I don't see any connection between the stress and isolation you describe and our U.S. overdose ten-year trend.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/databriefs/db394-H.pdf

Maybe you do not see a connection but it is actually stated on the CDC website. I guess we will all have to wait for the final numbers for 2020, again I find it very odd that their database about opioid overdoses is not more up to date and that it stops in May 2020so you only have few weeks of the pandemic included. Be prepared to be shocked (I will not be) when you see the final numbers. The graphs in the PDF you show stop at 2019 by the way so you will never see a correlation there between Covid and the overdoses. But the other graphs in your link show that the overdoses plateaued between 2016-2019 and a spike in 2020 is obviously (IMO) related to Covid.

Coronavirus Disease 2019

CDC provides credible COVID-19 health information to the U.S.

www.cdc.gov

 

[cman]

It appears that WHO is preparing to end the pandemic! If they reduce the number of cycles, or their interpretation, and it seems they are going in that direction, less infected people, problem solved! Why only now when they have known for months that the high number of cycles was a problem? Of course do not expect the change overnight but expect more announcements in the weeks to come. All the deniers (who said this was not a problem) are welcome to comment.

View attachment 31327

"Description of the problem: WHO requests users to follow the instructions for use (IFU) when interpreting results for specimens tested using PCR methodology.

Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is recommended by the manufacturer.
WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology."

WHO Information Notice for Users 2020/05

Product type: Nucleic acid testing (NAT) technologies that use polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for detection of SARS-CoV-2 Date: 13 January 2021 WHO-identifier: 2020/5, version 2 Target audience: laboratory professionals and...

www.who.int

Almost everything in this notice is already required by the FDA. The requirement to follow the instructions for use (IFU) is written in the FDA's authorization for these tests.

 

[DannyTS]

Almost everything in this notice is already required by the FDA. The requirement to follow the instructions for use (IFU) is written in the FDA's authorization for these tests.

Source please, I would love to see that. Maybe they changed it too
I would expecially be interested to compare with the new language from the WHO to see if we are talking about the same thing:

"Users of IVDs must read and follow the IFU carefully to determine if manual adjustment of the PCR positivity threshold is recommended by the manufacturer.
WHO guidance Diagnostic testing for SARS-CoV-2 states that careful interpretation of weak positive results is needed (1). The cycle threshold (Ct) needed to detect virus is inversely proportional to the patient’s viral load. Where test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested using the same or different NAT technology."