• The TUGBBS forums are completely free and open to the public and exist as the absolute best place for owners to get help and advice about their timeshares for more than 26 years!

    Join tens of thousands of other owners just like you here to get any and all Timeshare questions answered!
  • TUG started 27 years ago in October 1993 as a group of regular Timeshare owners just like you!

    Check out our happy birthday post here: Happy Birthday TUG!
  • TUG has now saved timeshare owners more than $15,000,000 dollars just by finding us in time to rescind a new Timeshare purchase! A truly incredible milestone!

    Read more here: TUG saves owners more than $14 Million dollars
  • Follow the TUG Member Banner as it travels the world on vacation with Timeshare owners! Also sign up to get the banner sent to you so you can submit a photo of your vacation with the banner to share with TUG! Banner Thread
  • Sign up to get the TUG Newsletter for free! Join tens of thousands of other owners who get this every week! Latest resort reviews and the most important topics discussed by owners during the week!
  • Our official "end my sales presentation early" T-shirts are available again! Also come with the option for a free membership extension with purchase to offset the cost!

    Read more Here
  • A few of the most common links here on the forums for newbies and guests!

Study shows that PCR tests with 35 cycles or more have an accuracy below 3%, meaning up to 97% of positive results could be false positives.

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248

needvaca

TUG Member
Joined
Apr 18, 2017
Messages
398
Reaction score
402
Points
123
Resorts Owned
WKV, SBP, SVV Bella

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248
Danny- your title is a false inaccurate statement of this test and gives no context.
oh, really? New York Times will give you context and education on the subject.


1606063144509.png


In Massachusetts, from 85 to 90 percent of people who tested positive in July with a cycle threshold of 40 would have been deemed negative if the threshold were 30 cycles, Dr. Mina said. “I would say that none of those people should be contact-traced, not one,” he said.
 

vacationtime1

Tug Review Crew: Rookie
TUG Member
Joined
Sep 7, 2006
Messages
3,867
Reaction score
1,330
Points
399
Location
San Francisco
Resorts Owned
Waiohai (Kauai)
WKORV-OFC (Maui)
WKV x3 (Scottsdale)
oh, really? New York Times will give you context and education on the subject.

The NYTimes piece doesn't support the thread title either.

"97%"? "False positive"? Those words do not appear in the articles and should not be in the thread title.
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248
The NYTimes piece doesn't support the thread title either.
What does the New York Times say that is not consistent with my headline? NYT wrote that 90% are false positive and you claim that the NYT piece does not support my title? I did not say that the estimates from the study and the New York Times article are identical but clearly they both show a very high degree of false positives for the tests (a majority actually ) with more than 35 amplifications.

The study in the OP states that: "At Ct = 35, the value we used to report a positive result for PCR, <3% of cultures are positive. Our Ct value of 35, initially based on the results obtained by RT-PCR on control negative samples in our laboratory and initial results of cultures [8], is validated by the results herein presented and is in correlation with what was proposed in Korea [9] and Taiwan [10]. We could observe that subcultures, especially the first one, allow an increasing percentage of viral isolation in samples with Ct values, confirming that these high Ct values are mostly correlated with low viral loads. From our cohort, we now need to try to understand and define the duration and frequency of live virus shedding in patients on a case-by-case basis in the rare cases when the PCR is positive beyond 10 days, often at a Ct >30. In any cases, these rare cases should not impact public health decisions."
 
Last edited:

DrQ

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 13, 2005
Messages
1,898
Reaction score
1,311
Points
373
Location
DFW
Resorts Owned
HICV, Westgate (second cousin, twice removed)

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248
The NYT and the study are very clear. I bet you read neither.
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248

Interesting article about this topic.
 

louisianab

TUG Member
Joined
Jun 12, 2014
Messages
256
Reaction score
181
Points
153
Location
Michigan
Resorts Owned
Wyndham, SVV and Williamsburg Plantation.
What does the New York Times say that is not consistent with my headline? NYT wrote that 90% are false positive and you claim that the NYT piece does not support my title? I did not say that the estimates from the study and the New York Times article are identical but clearly they both show a very high degree of false positives for the tests (a majority actually ) with more than 35 amplifications.

The study in the OP states that: "At Ct = 35, the value we used to report a positive result for PCR, <3% of cultures are positive. Our Ct value of 35, initially based on the results obtained by RT-PCR on control negative samples in our laboratory and initial results of cultures [8], is validated by the results herein presented and is in correlation with what was proposed in Korea [9] and Taiwan [10]. We could observe that subcultures, especially the first one, allow an increasing percentage of viral isolation in samples with Ct values, confirming that these high Ct values are mostly correlated with low viral loads. From our cohort, we now need to try to understand and define the duration and frequency of live virus shedding in patients on a case-by-case basis in the rare cases when the PCR is positive beyond 10 days, often at a Ct >30. In any cases, these rare cases should not impact public health decisions."
Viral culturing is not gold standard for most viruses and is notoriously hard depending on virus and strain. Other viruses such as human metapneumovirus and b. pertussis/parapertussis are often not isolated in culture from symptomatic, contagious patients due to the difficulty in growing and transportation.
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248
"In a study published this week in Clinical Infectious Diseases, researchers led by Bernard La Scola, an infectious diseases expert at IHU-Méditerranée Infection, examined 3790 positive samples with known CT values to see whether they harbored viable virus, indicating the patients were likely infectious. La Scola and his colleagues found that 70% of samples with CT values of 25 or below could be cultured, compared with less than 3% of the cases with CT values above 35. “It’s fair to say that having a higher viral load is associated with being more infectious,” says Monica Gandhi, an infectious diseases specialist at the University of California, San Francisco. "


 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248
Viral culturing is not gold standard for most viruses and is notoriously hard depending on virus and strain. Other viruses such as human metapneumovirus and b. pertussis/parapertussis are often not isolated in culture from symptomatic, contagious patients due to the difficulty in growing and transportation.
CDC says otherwise

 

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
1,426
Reaction score
1,094
Points
224
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
The NYT and the study are very clear. I bet you read neither.
Guess that explains why hospitalization rates are so high... all the false positives. :rolleyes:
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248
Guess that explains why hospitalization rates are so high... all the false positives. :rolleyes:
People go the the hospital all the time. The more false positives, the more people in the hospital that will be recorded to be there for Covid. The same with the number of deaths. 1.2% of the population dies every year. The more false positives the more recorded as Covid deaths.
 

csodjd

TUG Member
Joined
Jul 4, 2017
Messages
1,426
Reaction score
1,094
Points
224
Location
So. California
Resorts Owned
Hilton Hawaiian Village - Lagoon Tower
Marriott Maui Ocean Club
People go the the hospital all the time. The more false positives, the more people in the hospital that will be recorded to be there for Covid. The same with the number of deaths. 1.2% of the population dies every year. The more false positives the more recorded as Covid deaths.
Deniers are why 2000 people are dying in a single day from the SIGNS and SYMPTOMS of COVID.
 

Brett

Guest
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
3,568
Reaction score
1,914
Points
348
Location
Newport News, Va.
People go the the hospital all the time. The more false positives, the more people in the hospital that will be recorded to be there for Covid. The same with the number of deaths. 1.2% of the population dies every year. The more false positives the more recorded as Covid deaths.
yeah, it's a big hospitalization conspiracy with "false covid positives"

facepalm.jpg
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248
Deniers are why 2000 people are dying in a single day from the SIGNS and SYMPTOMS of COVID.
You truly think so? In that case the deniers should disproportionally die from Covid while "some" states and cities should do much better than others. The numbers tell a different story though and the correlation seems to be inverse.
 
Last edited:

Brett

Guest
Joined
Jun 6, 2005
Messages
3,568
Reaction score
1,914
Points
348
Location
Newport News, Va.
You truly think so? In that case the deniers should disproportionally die from Covid and "some" states and cities should do much better than others. The numbers tell a different story though and the correlation seems to be inverse.
deniers benefit from believers

facepalm.jpg
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248
1606099348707.png
 

DannyTS

TUG Member
Joined
Mar 24, 2018
Messages
3,927
Reaction score
1,820
Points
248
Top