Your post (#164) was phenomenal - very thoughtful and to the point. You also indicate the whole thing may be iffy so I'm curious if you can elaborate more on that?
What I stated really summed it up- a heretofore reliable source who freely discussed the supposedly future points system stated that he had been told not even to mention it because it basically was in such upheaval that it may never come to fruition.
If it's iffy, I'm not sure why all of a sudden you bought into the whole June deadline and feel compelled to speculate
It's pretty pointless... Just wait and see what (and if it) happens.
Because this is a "what if" discussion. Maybe I am a bit of a conspiracy theorist here, but I do believe Marriott insiders peruse these threads and I feel we are a perfect market survey for free. Obviously, it is at least something in the considering phase and I think discussions like these address owner's concerns.
I think it is very important that Marriott consider the ramifications of penalizing resale owners, for example. True, I have a vested interest, but I really do feel it is in no ones best interests to start a program out by being punitive. I think the company would garner a lot more respect by starting everyone out on an equal footing (at least by grandfathering all current owners who bought into a system with certain expectations; while I still feel that it would be a mistake going forward for all owners due to plummeting values, at least future buyers would know what they were getting into).
Similarly, I am very concerned with the MF aspect of the points program as Marriott chose to roll it out in the Asia Pacific program- which likely was a testing ground for this one. I am also concerned with the point allocations that would create a system where Platinum Caribbean week owners, Hawaii week owners, winter ski week owners, summer HH owners and perhaps a few others would be big winners and likely on the losing end of the stick. most others would find themselves
To quickly give you my 2 cents about what I think
could happen
IF they switch to points - I don't think it will be tied to MFs. I view any points system as an attempt to assign trading power. Just like currently Bronze and Silver weeks don't trade as well as Gold and Platinum weeks in II(given II's TDI, which generally corresponds to this) these weeks would get less points. Just like Orlando Platinum doesn't trade as well as Hawaii or NCV or DSV Platinum, it will get less points. And just like Silver and Bronze owners pay the same MFs as Gold and Platinum now, they will keep doing so. The deal was always that Silver and Bronze week owners paid less upfront and have lower trading power (retail or resale for that matter) but MFs are based on unit size. By the way, I also don't think that deeded view will matter when it comes to getting assigned points just like it doesn't affect II trading power today. The deeded view is for owners to secure the view they want when they visit a home resort.
As you jutifiably point out, this has limitations... To paint a grim scenario that can happen in this situation - to make the most of their ownership the Silver/Bronze weeks will prefer to trade with II. But getting Platinum weeks will become harder and harder as those weeks convert to internal trading. This reduced trading ability will cause many of those owners to bail out, resale prices for those weeks will tank, and delinquencies will get passed on to the remaining owners. MFs will skyrocket as a result and the system may implode in a death spiral. It's a grim and maybe very unlikely scenario scenario, but if you don't believe it can happen visit the Starwood Board and read the 2010 MF sticky... 30% year over year increases at some resorts this year. Needless to say that those weeks hardly sell for $1 today... If Starwood doesn't get a hold on things fast, the system may collapse in the near future. If Marriott follows the same path it could end up the same way.
That's why I'm of the opinion if it ain't broken don't try to fix it. Most Marriott owners love the current product and I can't see how they keep everyone as happy in a points system (again, see Starwood satisfaction survey). Unhappy owners walk away and then trouble begins. If selling new resorts in unviable due to the economy or buyers getting smarter, Marriott should be happy with their 10% management fee - and they do have 50 resorts with happy owners. It's been a profitable business model on hotels - no reason to risk upsetting the whole system.
If they take a long term view - I hope you are correct that it may never be introduced.
