Very interesting thread- just been catching up after a wonderful relaxing week away from the snow
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While I wasn't wasting vacation time playing on the Internet so was unaware of this thread, I had an interesting discussion while away, very different than what was posted here. I was told that the powers that be had filtered down instructions not even to discuss the rumored points system and that it may never be introduced. My source indicated that the whole thing was quite iffy at this point.
That said, I agree with some and disagree with other points already mentioned. I strongly believe that Marriott will, ultimately, do what is in Marriott's best interests. IF any new system is developed it will be to enhance their profits.
I also, albeit sadly, recognize that Marriott needs to enhance developer sales in order to maintain a profitable business model and to hopefully continue to build new resorts, and their current trading for point system has deteriorated in value (and thus holds less attraction for potential buyers) over time. Coupled with a more savvy buying audience (a natural byproduct of increased Internet access and ubiquitous usage) they may need to devise a different marketing strategy.
Thus, regrettably, I do foresee the possibility of them implementing a deterrent to resale purchases in the new system. HOWEVER, while I foresee that for future resale transactions because it may make business sense, I strongly feel that current resale owners will be grandfathered in (so, Kathy, your new St. Kitts purchase is a wise move- hope you got a great deal), because frankly there would be no benefit to Marriott to penalize any current owner (since the sale is already made). I know others have mentioned that, by charging more to join Marriott would make a few dollars more, so it "might" be to their benefit to do so, but I think that that small benefit would be far outweighed by two things- first, they want as many owners (regardless of how they purchased) to join the system. If it doesn't get a "wow" reception it can be a financial bust for MCVI. Including the 7% of resale purchases helps augment the initial joiners. The other issue is good will- and while some here don't think that's too important, I think that's a huge issue. While only 7% of purchases may be resale, many if not most of those sales have been to developer owners. Marriott wants to keep that loyal customer base happy. After all, they are potential future direct purchasers of any new property.
Or- they can take the high road. How do HGVC and DVC maintain their sales while including all owners in their points system, with no distinction between resale and direct purchasers? Contrast customer satisfaction (and likely product loyalty) with Starwood. It would be interesting to see if they suffer from the escalating MF default rate that Starwood seems to be suffering from. I share the fear that IF Marriott penalizes resale buyers in the future everyone's ownership becomes devalued.
And, while it is true that Marriott takes great pains to cover themselves and not imply any inherent future value, just as any new IPO or stock, etc., does, saleability depends on implied future value, because otherwise the product would be difficult to sell if a buyer assumed that his/her entire "investment" vaporized as soon as the check was cashed. Is part of DVC's success dependent on the perception of retained value? Maybe just offering a better product (such as Marriott perceives the point system will be) is in itself enough of an enticement to buy from Marriott, and they can take the high road (as DVC and HGVC have before them) and just use customer satisfaction to sustain their sales. Marriott, in reality, has the potential to have the best product out there, because it already had a broad resort base.
The bigger hurdle I see is how to sustain the viability of off season ownership with four figure MF's. Savvy owners who have travel flexibility can use these weeks to their advantage today and, while such trade "upgrades" may seem unfair to some, the system is sustained by those owners taking advantage of unused weeks justifying their payment of escalating MF's. IF off season ownership only gives the equivalent of a few days at a nicer locale or a smaller unit, we may experience large scale defaults, and I foresee that as a very real problem.
The other issue is that Platinum owners at premium resorts will be the big winners, but even Platinum owners at other resorts will likely suffer some and may no longer quality for similar exchanges (for ex., an MMC Plat. owner may no longer be able to get the same unit size for a week in the Caribbean or Hawaii). I think that's going to be a big problem for many owners. And if a precedent is set to differentiate between different Plat. ownerships, then what happens if/when new resorts are added down the road? Will Marriott create an enhanced point valuation just to foster sales, making it impossible even for premium week owners to trade like for like at future resorts (again, look at how Starwood has done that, so that point allocations for some resorts don't really make sense and it acts to deter certain owners from ever depositing their owned week so that certain resorts are next to impossible to exchange into.)?
Time will tell.... I hope IF Marriott makes changes they create a system that incorporates the best features of their competitor's and recognizes the pitfalls of others.
