There is no excess inventory. Nobody said all resorts have to have the same total points. Here is a simple illustrative example:
Say the system has just two resorts: Maui and Aruba. For simplicity, they are all 2R units - no lockoffs. Resorts are the same size. Maui is 1-52 Platinum and Aruba is 51-21 Platinum and 22-50 Gold (I know the weeks are not necessarity accurate and I'm ignoring Platinum Plus). Before any change it was possible for all Aruba Owners to go to Maui if all Maui owners wanted to go to Aruba. 1 week for 1 week.
Now say Platinum gets 200 points and Gold 100 points. The total points given in the system is equal to the points available for trading. there is no excess inventory.... However, Aruba Gold owners now get 5 days in Hawaii while Hawaii owners can go for 10 days to Aruba in Gold season. While Aruba Gold is now relatively more attractive for Hawaii owners, if some people get 10 day trades (for each two Aruba Gold owners who go to Hawaii) not all Hawaii owners can trade there because the weeks will get exhausted. They will have to go to their home resort or trade Aruba Platinum. Also, if Aruba Gold owners dislike their new trading opportunities, they will rent or use their home weeks, in which case nobody trades to Aruba Gold.
In any case, since the total "inventory" in the system is determined by the points available to trade, there is no excess inventory. Excess or lack of inventory may happen if you give an owner in a Gold week 100 points to trade with but say it takes 200 points to trade into his week (or vice versa).
Agreed...but this fails to consider the experience we currently have with II. There is in fact excess inventory in the system from unsold weeks, unused weeks, and trades out of the system. If there is no excess inventory how are some of us able to turn our 2 bedroom lockoff into TWO 2 bedrooms throughout the year in II? Some owners are even able to stretch that to THREE with the provision of AC's.
My point was this: What if a current Platinum owner uses II, splitting a lockoff and receiving an AC. In return lets say they end up with two 2 bedrooms and one studio for their trades. In the future, rather than playing II roulette, they opt for the more guaranteed internal Marriott system that gets them a guaranteed(time and place) reservation. If they go for a Platinum week at another resort they are likely to get a 1-1 trade...if they go for Gold they may be able to stretch their platinum points to 10 or 11 days but I doubt it would be double (I agree that this is all speculation on how the point values would be set up, but I don't see Marriott doing anything drastically different). Therefore, the Marriott system has resulted in less use...creating MORE excess.
Before everyone tears up my example, I agree, I have used the most extreme scenario to demonstrate my point. However, I do think that in general with II, Marriott owners trade equal or up. I don't buy that there are a ton of owners depositing their platinum studios into II in exchange for bronze weeks. Picture even an average user who take the 1 bedroom at their home resort and deposits the studio into II. Many receive a 1 bedroom or better in exchange for their studio. If they choose to use the internal system and are constrained to a more 1-1 basis, there will still be more excess than currently.