I think almost every points based system puts some sort of hurdle in the way of resale buyers having full access. Hilton is proably the most relaxed in that the only thing resale buyers don't receive is Elite status for resale points.
What about DVC? Probably not coincidentally, it appears to be the most respected, has retained its value more than the other systems, and treats all owners as, well, valued customers who continue to support the product (by paying on going MF's) and spending money at their facilities while on vacation.
Hopefully Marriott will strive to follow the best rather than emulate the worst- as you said, Starwood appears to be imploding It is not merely due to the disparity between direct and resale purchases, but is at least partially related to having a two tier system.
I think a big issue here is that this is an "after the facts" system. Marriott is superimposing a system (IF it ever does develop the system) on a system that owners have mostly happily been using for years. It is one thing if it was starting anew, and people wouldn't be comparing it to what they had and perceived losses. I think it is a very different animal when you have owners who were enjoying privileges that may not have been specified contractual rights but were perceived as such.
I do agree with most of what you predicted, btw. Since we're postulating anyway, the only real difference I'd predict is the way they handle resales (and it's not merely a case of wishful thinking, because I don't necessarily think that part of this will be good for any owner, since all owners ultimately stand to lose because of devaluations and potentially MF defaults). It has always made sense to me that current resale owners be grandfathered- it is good for public relations, it is good to get more people on board (the more people join and get the ball rolling, the more successful the new program will be) and Marriott won't make any more sales off of these units anyway (and may get additional future sales from their happy owners).
While some owners of developer weeks might get perverse satisfaction from resale owners having to pay more, I personally believe the few dollars that Marriott might receive by making the buy-in a little higher for resale owners initially (and, if it is higher, I do believe the difference would be at most $1000 as Fletch suggested) would be outweighed by the ill will that would be generated. Again, while only 7% of all units are resales, since many people own both developer purchased and resale weeks, the percentage of owners being affected is likely considerably higher and worthwhile keeping happy as Marriott customers. Even without that, no company wants to alienate even 7% of its customers overnight; it just doesn't make good business sense.
I do think future resale owners will be charged a higher price, and I think it will be higher than 1K (although I would like it to be kept low). I think the price difference will depend on whether or not they charge a flat fee to convert (which is the simpler way of handling it) or a per point fee (more logistically difficult, but might make it more attractive for lower value weeks to join). The problem with the flat fee is that lower priced weeks (which likely will be awarded lower point values) would be just too expensive to join. That brings up the issue is what will happen to those weeks IF the internal trading system is successful. IF they are no longer deemed useful by their owners, will we have widespread forfeiture and defaults (look at Starwood) with escalating MF's to cover unpaid dues?
I also am sure that Marriott isn't doing any of this- IF they do do anything- out of the goodness of their heart. There certainly will be exchange fees, but presumably, at least initially, less than II's. And they will sell it as a one time fee to join rather than II's annual dues (neglecting to point out that if people still want to trade externally they'll have to join II anyway).
As for who will join- it depends upon the details. IF they don't retain home resort advantage (as Fletch suggested) I don't think even Platinum week owners will be running to join. People who bought where they like to go most of the time will want to continue their preference at their home resort. If they do, I suspect that the owners of those premium properties will be the first to convert, depending upon the way points are assigned. I think Gold week owners at most properties and lower seasons will be very reluctant to join. IF I am right, then then whole system can get stuck- because the only benefit to Plat. week owners (aside from trading to other Plat. properties) is to get more days at lower demand times- but if they're not part of the new system, they're not available to book. So that's a big issue.
The other issue- which I haven't seem brought up- is what impact will that new change in Reward categories have (if any)? Will Marriott be valuing the different Hawaii resorts differently in their timeshare points program as they do in their Rewards points program? When you look over that list, it does present an interesting view of how Marriott evaluates the demand for its own properties. Those category 7 owners may be at the top of the heap here and category 5 owners of some properties considered premium may find themselves falling a bit short.
