Shouldn't epidemiologists revisit the case of Sweden? Hasn't their approach actually worked?

[CO skier]

Frankenstein ?

"That's Fronkenshteen." And Gene Wilder does have a certain "look" that reminds me of someone ...

 

[Brett]

"That's Fronkenshteen." And Gene Wilder does have a certain "look" that reminds me of someone ...

OK

 

[CO skier]

OK
View attachment 24425

Oh, please. Sweden did not "pursue a policy of herd immunity" -- the national Swedish epidemiologist stated that from the beginning (look it up and get some facts -- instead of buying into the US fake news).

Here are 6 fake news narratives the US media perpetuates about Sweden, and you may be a victim of believing:

In the first month of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden took the same strategy as most other countries, working to “flatten the curve,” by slowing transmission so that the healthcare system could cope with the disease. However, unlike most other countries, much of Sweden’s implementation focused on voluntary and stepwise action, rather than legislation and compulsory measures, leading to considerable attention in the international media.

Six main narratives emerged in the international media reporting on Sweden during the first month of the COVID-19 pandemic: (1) Life is normal in Sweden, (2) Sweden has a herd immunity strategy, (3) Sweden is not following expert advice, (4) Sweden is not following WHO recommendations (5) the Swedish approach is failing and (6) Swedes trust the government. While these narratives are partially grounded in reality, in some media outlets, the language and examples used to frame the story distorted the accuracy of the reporting.

Misinformation and de-contextualization: international media reporting on Sweden and COVID-19 - PMC

In the first month of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden took the same strategy as most other countries, working to “flatten the curve,” by slowing transmission so that the healthcare system could cope with the disease. However, unlike most other ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

afaik, Sweden does not have any mask orders, their schools are open, and their death rate is less than more than 20 other countries -- many with mask orders and closed schools.

 

[DannyTS]

OK

View attachment 24425
View attachment 24426

I am clearly interested in what Sweden has been doing. It is not an experiment, the whole world has been an experiment and has chosen a path never taken before (at least not in the recent history). Countries announced lockdowns without knowing what to do in 2 weeks let alone in 2 months. I am calling that an experiment.

Why are you so against Sweden though? Their strategy is clearly working. Why would you like to see them failing?

 

[Brett]

Something smells in the socialist state ...

 

[CO skier]

Something smells in the socialist state ...

View attachment 24427

View attachment 24428

No, Mary Harris did not check her facts as depicted in post #79 of this thread -- and merely repeated the false US news narrative.

And she just made stuff up (faked), "Face masks were constantly discouraged."

Pure baloney. Face masks were and are not mandated. That is the true fact.

 

[jme]

The number of deaths is half of what it was in April. I do not think the current number of deaths is bad actually given that the number of tests is 8-10 times more than at the beginning of the pandemic, given that the more tests you do the more positives you record and eventually more deaths (whether from Covid or just with Covid), and given that you had a busy 4th of July and protests for 65 days.
Probably if you had today the same number of tests as in March-April, the current number of deaths would be 10 times less than back in the spring.

Wow, I feel sooooo much much better now.
You truly put my mind at ease.
Aside from the fatalities, I guess the fact that people still suffer serious health consequences long after infection (and regardless of age),
even though they didn't die,
like serious heart, lung, and brain damage, doesn't really count for much. Sure, they'll be just fine, no harm done, right?
Where's that graph?
Might wish to run that past them and see how they feel about that.

 

[DannyTS]

Wow, I feel sooooo much much better now.
You truly put my mind at ease.
Aside from the fatalities, I guess the fact that people still suffer serious health consequences long after infection (and regardless of age),
even though they didn't die,
like serious heart, lung, and brain damage, doesn't really count for much. Sure, they'll be just fine, no harm done, right?
Where's that graph?
Might wish to run that past them and see how they feel about that.

When you talk about long term consequences, we realize that this is a new virus whose long term effects have not been studied, right?

 

[CO skier]

Wow, I feel sooooo much much better now.
You truly put my mind at ease.
Aside from the fatalities, I guess the fact that people still suffer serious health consequences long after infection (and regardless of age),
even though they didn't die,
like serious heart, lung, and brain damage, doesn't really count for much. Sure, they'll be just fine, no harm done, right?
Where's that graph?
Might wish to run that past them and see how they feel about that.

... and Your solution to all that you enumerate is?

 

[davidvel]

Wow, I feel sooooo much much better now.
You truly put my mind at ease.
Aside from the fatalities, I guess the fact that people still suffer serious health consequences long after infection (and regardless of age),
even though they didn't die,
like serious heart, lung, and brain damage, doesn't really count for much. Sure, they'll be just fine, no harm done, right?
Where's that graph?
Might wish to run that past them and see how they feel about that.

Where is the graph? I have heard that very few have these types of repercussions, but haven't seen any actual data showing the prevalence, and you don't cite to any.

 

[jme]

When you talk about long term consequences, we realize that this is a new virus whose long term effects have not been studied, right?

Of course,
but do you have to study it long term before you say it's bad, and sometimes tragic?
Sounds like you'd first wish to study those who've been run over by a train before making any kind of judgment.
The fact that these consequences have been noted by physicians already when examining the patients post-infection
is enough for me at this point. If they see actual physical damage present, there is damage,
and it will most likely manifest itself in some debilitating manner or another as each patient goes forward.
Regardless of the prevalence of such post-infection sequelae, I have seen Xrays which show grotesque and ravaged lungs
in recovered patients, even young ones. The truth is, a lot isn't written about those cases, but sometimes a single article will appear.

If a "recovered" Covid patient says he/she still has trouble breathing, or that their EKG has shown new abnormalities,
or that their cognitive abilities have been diminished, I believe those are serious consequences.
What it DOESN'T mean is that they're perfectly fine and in good health just because they didn't die.
Your assumption or pronouncement that they're fine because they haven't been studied longterm is naive.
I think so many people, especially the young 20 & 30-somethings who have been out partying are simply not realizing
the potential gravity of becoming infected.
It's the "No Fear" generation essentially having their knuckles rapped by these new discoveries that are showing up every day.

Patient, 30, said ‘I thought this was a hoax’ before dying after ‘COVID party:’ Texas doctor

A 30-year-old coronavirus patient at a San Antonio medical center told a nurse, “I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not” shortly before dying, the hospital’s top doctor sai…

www.nydailynews.com

And this morning 8/3/2020:

Eduardo Rodriguez out for season with post-COVID-19 heart issue

Red Sox ace Eduardo Rodriguez will sit out the rest of the season because of a heart issue, which the team believes is related to the southpaw’s recent contraction of COVID-19.

www.foxnews.com

Doctors told Rodriguez that up to 20 percent of people who’ve been infected with COVID-19 are diagnosed with myocarditis.
And these are not preexisting conditions, but a direct result of having contracted the virus.
Want to do a study on that? go ahead, but the doctors are telling you what's going on.

 

[DannyTS]

It is a classic case of antiselection where those with the most severe symptoms who ended up in the hospital also are the most likely to report some problems afterwords. How can you draw the conclusion it is Covid who did that and how do you know they did not have conditions they had not known about? Maybe that is why they ended up in the hospital in the first place while so many others are "asymptomatic" ? It happens all the time when people "perfectly" healthy people find out for the first time they are not that healthy.

I would like to see a real study and real numbers. As @davidvel said, where is the prevalence? 5 million people have tested positive in the US and probably the real number of infected is a multiple of that. How many of those have had those "serious consequences"?

 

[cman]

@cman I am not sure you read the comments before, you will have some of the answers to the points you bring up.
1) not all jurisdictions are reliable and can be compared. Just to give few examples, can Iran, Brasil, Afghanistan really be included in any chart and consider their data reliable? Tanzania tested a goat, a papaya and a parrot, and they all came back Covid positive, I think they stopped testing at that point. They only have 0.5 deaths per 1 million people. Do you think it is a good idea to include it in any comparison? Iran reported 309,000 infections, their president announced they had 25 million people infected. Do you think it is a good idea to compare Iran to Sweden or any other Western country?

I read the comments but still can't see how Sweden can be considered a success story. Granted, the data from all countries can't be trusted. However, if we were to come up with a list of "trusted" countries, Sweden would still be a disaster. Look through the list of countries, exclude those those who's data is questionable, and Sweden would still be at the bottom of the list. You can compare them against the EU countries, Asian countries or you can cherry pick the ones that best fit your narrative. The bottom line is that they will end up one of the worst performing countries however you choose to compare them.


2) In Sweden most of the deaths occured in March and April, and a lockdown in mid-March like most of the world would have not prevented those deaths because the transmission must have been before March 15th (according to the CDC there is a 4 week lag, and many times a lot longer, between contact to recording a death). The reality is that their peak of deaths per day was April 15th and they went down continuously.
Please see the graphs I provided on post #90. All of the Nordic countries had the most deaths in March and April. Sweden's neighbors had stopped the deaths in May. People were still dying in Sweden until they finally got this thing under control in July. Two months of additional deaths.

3) their current number of deaths is virtually zero (1-2 per day) so I can say they are doing well. As I said before, in the last 2 weeks: 16847 deaths in the US vs only 64 in Sweden.
I agree that they're finally doing well. However, their neighbors got there two months ago. Sweden has paid a heavy price in terms of lives for the approach they've taken. They're death rate is 12 times that of Norway, 5 times that of Denmark, and 10 times that of Finland's. I'm not seeing nothing there worth emulating.

4) do not forget that, according to the models (and those that made them and pushed for the lock downs) Sweden was supposed to have 20 times more deaths without a lock down, yet that did not happen and they are a lot better than others that (possibly) infringed into a lot of laws and civil liberties.
Not sure what "others" they're doing better than. I can't find a single comparative metric that would support such a conclusion.

5) I am surprised that people are not more interested in why states that locked down and put a lot of measures in place, have a higher number of deaths per 1 million people, in some cases 50% more, 200% more and 300% more than Sweden.
Most states, mine included, didn't fully lockdown. Worse, we didn't follow the recommended guidelines for reopening and did it at a time when the virus was spreading. TX, AZ, FL. We all did it. Now the virus is running rampant in our communities. So the answer to the question is that those states opened up too soon.

6) If you look at the other Nordic countries, for whatever reason they started from a much lower base in March and April, and those numbers where not influenced by the lock downs which started in mid March.
That's factually incorrect. Norway actually started with the most cases. Here's the breakdown for March 15 for the Nordic counties;

Findland: 19
Denmark: 28
Norway: 147
Sweden: 69

So, Sweden didn't start with higher numbers, Norway did. They locked down, addressed the problem and have now reopened.

[/QUOTE]

 

[DannyTS]

I read the comments but still can't see how Sweden can be considered a success story. Granted, the data from all countries can't be trusted. However, if we were to come up with a list of "trusted" countries, Sweden would still be a disaster. Look through the list of countries, exclude those those who's data is questionable, and Sweden would still be at the bottom of the list. You can compare them against the EU countries, Asian countries or you can cherry pick the ones that best fit your narrative. The bottom line is that they will end up one of the worst performing countries however you choose to compare them.


2) In Sweden most of the deaths occured in March and April, and a lockdown in mid-March like most of the world would have not prevented those deaths because the transmission must have been before March 15th (according to the CDC there is a 4 week lag, and many times a lot longer, between contact to recording a death). The reality is that their peak of deaths per day was April 15th and they went down continuously.
Please see the graphs I provided on post #90. All of the Nordic countries had the most deaths in March and April. Sweden's neighbors had stopped the deaths in May. People were still dying in Sweden until they finally got this thing under control in July. Two months of additional deaths.

3) their current number of deaths is virtually zero (1-2 per day) so I can say they are doing well. As I said before, in the last 2 weeks: 16847 deaths in the US vs only 64 in Sweden.
I agree that they're finally doing well. However, their neighbors got there two months ago. Sweden has paid a heavy price in terms of lives for the approach they've taken. They're death rate is 12 times that of Norway, 5 times that of Denmark, and 10 times that of Finland's. I'm not seeing nothing there worth emulating.

4) do not forget that, according to the models (and those that made them and pushed for the lock downs) Sweden was supposed to have 20 times more deaths without a lock down, yet that did not happen and they are a lot better than others that (possibly) infringed into a lot of laws and civil liberties.
Not sure what "others" they're doing better than. I can't find a single comparative metric that would support such a conclusion.

5) I am surprised that people are not more interested in why states that locked down and put a lot of measures in place, have a higher number of deaths per 1 million people, in some cases 50% more, 200% more and 300% more than Sweden.
Most states, mine included, didn't fully lockdown. Worse, we didn't follow the recommended guidelines for reopening and did it at a time when the virus was spreading. TX, AZ, FL. We all did it. Now the virus is running rampant in our communities. So the answer to the question is that those states opened up too soon.

6) If you look at the other Nordic countries, for whatever reason they started from a much lower base in March and April, and those numbers where not influenced by the lock downs which started in mid March.
That's factually incorrect. Norway actually started with the most cases. Here's the breakdown for March 15 for the Nordic counties;

Findland: 19
Denmark: 28
Norway: 147
Sweden: 69

So, Sweden didn't start with higher numbers, Norway did. They locked down, addressed the problem and have now reopened.

[/QUOTE]
6) If you want to see how many people were actually infected at the beginning you are incorrect because you are looking at the least reliable number, positive tests, especially back then so few tests were being performed and they took a long time to be processed. If you look at the number of Covid deaths, you will get a much better picture. By April 15th Norway had 150 deaths, Denmark 309, Finland 72, Sweden 1500 already and those had nothing to do with the lockdowns; it will tell you that Sweden had a lot more Covid in the country when the lockdowns started.

Also, if you look at the number of active cases in many countries and states that did lock down it will show you that they flattened the curve at the time (and so did Sweden!) but the number of cases started to rise at a later time again which tells you they only delayed the inevitable, they did not avoid it.



5) many states did fully lock down and what were the results? Either they did 2-3 times worse than Sweden or they are passing Sweden now. Can you please explain why Delaware and DC are doing a lot worse than Sweden if these measures were the way to go?

2),3) look at number 6 for the answer, Sweden started from a much worse position, the same like France, Italy, NY and others.


But it should not even be a competition, Sweden should be up there 20 times worse than everybody else if you were to believe the models. I also think you do not take into account the socio-economic consequences of the lockdowns. Many people are desperate and have a lot of time to burn and some will do bad things. You should be alarmed about those as well, pandemics come and go but the consequences of the lockdowns like increase violence, suicides, bankruptcies, delayed education, increased extreme poverty, mental health problems may be here to stay for years to come.

More than 150 rounds fired during shooting outside Portland apartment

More than 150 rounds were fired during a shooting in a Portland neighborhood on Friday, ending the city's deadliest month since the 1980s.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Brett]

6) If you want to see how many people were actually infected you are incorrect because you are looking at the least reliable number, positive tests, especially at the beginning of the pandemic when so few tests were being performed and they took a long time to be processed. If you look at the number of Covid deaths, you will get a much better picture. By April 15th Norway had 150 deaths, Denmark 309, Finland 72, Sweden 1500 already and those had nothing to do with the lockdowns; it will tell you that Sweden had a lot more Covid in the country when the lockdowns started.

Also, if you look at the number of active cases in many countries and states that did lock down it will show you that they flattened the curve at the time (and so did Sweden!) but the number of cases started to rise at a later time again which tells you they only delayed the inevitable, they did not avoid it.
5) many states did fully lock down and what were the results? Either they did 2-3 times worse than Sweden or they are passing Sweden now. Can you please explain why Delaware and DC are doing a lot worse than Sweden if these measures were the way to go?
2),3) look at number 6 for the answer, Sweden started from a much worse position, the same like France, Italy, NY and others.
but it should not even be a competition, Sweden should be up there 20 times worse than everybody else if you were to believe the models. I also think you do not take into account the socio-economic consequences of the lockdowns. Many people are desperate and have a lot of time to burn and some will do bad things. You should be alarmed about those as well, pandemics come and go but the consequences of the lockdowns my be here to stay for years to come.

More than 150 rounds fired during shooting outside Portland apartment

More than 150 rounds were fired during a shooting in a Portland neighborhood on Friday, ending the city's deadliest month since the 1980s.

www.dailymail.co.uk

^^ there ya go
it's the Portland protesters causing the coronavirus spike .... yeah, that's the ticket

 

[DannyTS]

^^ there ya go
it's the Portland protesters causing the coronavirus spike .... yeah, that's the ticket

View attachment 24461

The protests did have an influence in the spread of the virus (as Dr Fauci admitted during the Senate hearing) but I did not post the Daily Mail article for that reason, rather to point out the socio-economic consequences of the lockdowns.

 

[Bunk]

There is another false narrative the US media perpetuates about Sweden, namely that Swedish is a socialist state.

 

[Brett]

There is another false narrative the US media perpetuates about Sweden, namely that Swedish is a socialist state.

the evil US media .... ... was Sweden neutral during WW2 and WW1 ?

 

[DannyTS]

the evil US media .... ... was Sweden neutral during WW2 and WW1 ?

View attachment 24462

If you are trying to dilute and weaken the arguments on the other side, you are doing a great job.

 

[TravelTime]

California had a serious lockdown. We were the first state to lockdown and everyone thought we were a success story. Now look at us. We had to shutdown again and we are #1 in the nation for number of cases (granted we are a big state). How do folks explain what happened in California? I think our approach has been a dismal failure.

Just saw this depressing article about the Bay Area. In some ways, the BayArea is comparable to Sweden in its progressive culture, so-called government trust and population size.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/08/02/san-francisco-coronavirus-surge/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_virussf-620pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

The Bay Area was supposed to be exceptional.

It was one of the first metro areas in the United States to fully shut down to slow the spread of the novel coronavirus. Nearly everyone wears masks, in stores and on streets. Its progressive residents generally have been inclined to follow the rules, and there’s a high level of trust in public health officials, local governments and the fast-changing science.

But now, more than four months after the region put some of the nation’s first shelter-in-place orders in effect, the Bay Area is experiencing a surge in cases and counties are rolling back reopening plans.

The Bay Area, which consists of nine counties and nearly 8 million people, is a cautionary tale for government and health officials. Even though leaders here tried to do everything cautiously and by the book, cases still eventually spiked over a month and a half, to an average of 877 cases a day at the end of July from 217 a day in mid-June........

 

[DannyTS]

Of course,
but do you have to study it long term before you say it's bad, and sometimes tragic?
Sounds like you'd first wish to study those who've been run over by a train before making any kind of judgment.
The fact that these consequences have been noted by physicians already when examining the patients post-infection
is enough for me at this point. If they see actual physical damage present, there is damage,
and it will most likely manifest itself in some debilitating manner or another as each patient goes forward.
Regardless of the prevalence of such post-infection sequelae, I have seen Xrays which show grotesque and ravaged lungs
in recovered patients, even young ones. The truth is, a lot isn't written about those cases, but sometimes a single article will appear.

If a "recovered" Covid patient says he/she still has trouble breathing, or that their EKG has shown new abnormalities,
or that their cognitive abilities have been diminished, I believe those are serious consequences.
What it DOESN'T mean is that they're perfectly fine and in good health just because they didn't die.
Your assumption or pronouncement that they're fine because they haven't been studied longterm is naive.
I think so many people, especially the young 20 & 30-somethings who have been out partying are simply not realizing
the potential gravity of becoming infected.
It's the "No Fear" generation essentially having their knuckles rapped by these new discoveries that are showing up every day.

Patient, 30, said ‘I thought this was a hoax’ before dying after ‘COVID party:’ Texas doctor

A 30-year-old coronavirus patient at a San Antonio medical center told a nurse, “I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not” shortly before dying, the hospital’s top doctor sai…

www.nydailynews.com

And this morning 8/3/2020:

Eduardo Rodriguez out for season with post-COVID-19 heart issue

Red Sox ace Eduardo Rodriguez will sit out the rest of the season because of a heart issue, which the team believes is related to the southpaw’s recent contraction of COVID-19.

www.foxnews.com

Doctors told Rodriguez that up to 20 percent of people who’ve been infected with COVID-19 are diagnosed with myocarditis.
And these are not preexisting conditions, but a direct result of having contracted the virus.
Want to do a study on that? go ahead, but the doctors are telling you what's going on.

"The positive thing is that, after a period of exercise in our gym, most of them can recover efficiently." (please read the article below)

Brain fog, fatigue, breathlessness. Rehab centers set up across Europe to treat long-term effects of coronavirus | CNN

Professional diver Emiliano Pescarolo contracted coronavirus in March and spent 17 days in hospital in the Italian port city of Genoa before being discharged on April 10.

www.cnn.com

You never answered the question: of the 5 million reported C19-positive in the US, how many have had these problems? Did you know that 10 million people in the US have severe chronic cough for example that they experience months and sometimes years after the underlying condition is gone? Do I have to mention again that a lot of what we know now about C19 proved the early reports wrong and this may be just another media hype?

 

[Brett]

If you are trying to dilute and weaken the arguments on the other side, you are doing a great job.

We're on the same side ---- Proud Patriot Americans !

Maybe we should have taken some more care of each other,"

 

[DannyTS]

Countries making decisions will also take into account that there is still no guarantee that we will have a vaccine in the next year or ever, they may have to prepare for an approach that is sustainable in the long term.

WHO says there’s no ‘silver bullet’ to defeat coronavirus and ‘there might never be’

WHO says there's no 'silver bullet' to defeat coronavirus and 'there might never be'

For now, world leaders can stop new outbreaks by practicing the "basics" of public health and disease control, the WHO chief said.

www.cnbc.com

 

[grupp]

View attachment 24468

Yes Al Jazeera is my first stop for news as well. Did you actually listen to the interview or just cut and paste the headline?

Sweden’s unorthodox response to COVID-19: What went wrong?

Health Minister Lena Hallengren discusses Sweden’s coronavirus death toll, the worst by far in Scandinavia.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Monykalyn]

Yes Al Jazeera is my first stop for news as well. Did you actually listen to the interview or just cut and past the headline?

Sweden’s unorthodox response to COVID-19: What went wrong?

Health Minister Lena Hallengren discusses Sweden’s coronavirus death toll, the worst by far in Scandinavia.

www.aljazeera.com

perhaps the most important thing she said is the pandemic is not over.