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Shouldn't epidemiologists revisit the case of Sweden? Hasn't their approach actually worked?

DannyTS

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Sweden is doing really well even if most of the media coverage would leave the impression that Sweden has paid a steep price in human lives and that it has failed economically. Therefore the rest of the world was supposedly right to implement draconian lock-downs and other measures. Let's look at the data

1) Human lives
This is the graph that represents the C19 deaths in Sweden. The trend has been down since April and in the last week (July 12th-July 19th) the deaths have been zero or near zero.

1595253846659.png



To visualize in relative terms the number of deaths/day, this is a comparison Sweden/NY

1595255891132.png


Let's compare Sweden with individual US states and other countries. In terms of deaths per 1,000,000 people, Sweden is actually number 17 after New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, District Of Columbia, Louisiana, Michigan, Illinois, Maryland, San Marino, Belgium, Andorra, UK, Spain, Italy. Interesting to note that DC and Rhode Island have 50% more deaths/1M population and that New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts have 200%-300% more deaths/1M pop than Sweden.

1595254790089.png

1595254882620.png


I know some will only want to compare Sweden to the Nordic countries but that does not fly due to early spring break in Sweden and other considerations that made Sweden start from a much higher number of infected people than their neighbors. Let's also note that unfortunately Pennsylvania will probably exceed Sweden soon in deaths/1M pop so Sweden will drop to number 18 on that list and that a lot of other countries should be on the chart doing worse than Sweden but they do not test much.

In any case, Sweden was supposed to be the funerary home of the planet but the data does not support their critics. They have done better than many others without lock-downs and mandatory masks, with schools, restaurants, bars and businesses open. Could have they done even better? Sure, they also made mistakes along the way. Without those their situation would have been even better.

2) The economy
In Sweden the unemployment is up less than 2% compared to an increase of 12% in New York, not to mention that there are states that are doing even worse.
 
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TravelTime

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Sweden is doing really well even if most of the media coverage would leave the impression that Sweden has paid a steep price in human lives and that has failed economically. Therefore the rest of the world was supposedly right to implement draconian lock-downs and other measures. Let's look a the data

1) Human lives
This is the graph that represents the C19 deaths in Sweden. The trend has been down since April and in the last week (July 12th-July 19th) the deaths have been zero or near zero.

View attachment 23810


To visualize in relative terms the number of deaths/day, this is a comparison Sweden/NY

View attachment 23814

Let's compare Sweden with individual US states and and other countries. In terms of deaths per 1,000,000 people, Sweden is actually number 17 after New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, District Of Columbia, Louisiana, Michigan, Illinois, Maryland, San Marino, Belgium, Andorra, UK, Spain, Italy. Interesting to note that DC and Rhode Island have 50% more deaths/1M population and that New York, New Jersey, Connecticut and Massachusetts have 200%-300% more deaths/1M pop than Sweden.

View attachment 23811
View attachment 23812

I know some will only want to compare Sweden to the Nordic countries but that does not fly due to early spring break in Sweden and other considerations that made Sweden start from a much higher number of infected people than their neighbors. Let's also note that unfortunately Pennsylvanian will probably exceed Sweden soon in deaths/1M pop so Sweden will drop to number 18 on that list and that a lot of other countries should be on the chart but they do not test much.

In any case, Sweden was supposed to be the funerary home of the planet but the data does not support their critics and they realized that without lock-downs and mandatory masks, with schools, restaurants, bars and businesses open. Could have they done even better? Sure, they also made mistakes along the way. Without those their situation would have been even better.

2) The economy
In Sweden the unemployment is up less than 2% compared to an increase of 12% in New York, not to mention that there are states that are doing even worse.
I think we can compare Sweden to any other country. I do not see why people only want to compare Sweden to Nordic countries. We compare the USA to European countries and they are far away from us. I do not think it makes sense to limit who we compare based on geography only.
 

TravelTime

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In a Wall Street Journal article today, they reported:
Even in Sweden, which never instituted a lockdown and has suffered a high mortality rate, the number of new cases has plateaued as people observe distancing rules amid a ban of large-scale events.
 

pedro47

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The average temperature in Sweden is 71 and that is a lot lower than in the United States.
 

DannyTS

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PigsDad

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The average temperature in Sweden is 71 and that is a lot lower than in the United States.
What does temperature have to do with anything?

Kurt
 

pedro47

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According to an expert in Washington,DC high summer temperatures was going to halt COVID-19.o_O:ponder::crash::confused::confused:o_O:wall:
 
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SmithOp

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I already mentioned that some articles have left the impression that Sweden has done poorly but that is not the case IMO. So instead of quoting even more articles, let's discuss the merit of my post.
you know what they say about opinions, everybody has one and they all stink but mine.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Pro
 

isisdave

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The reason that it's appropriate to compare the Nordic neighbors include 1) Sweden is geographically, environmentally, and anthropologically similar to them; 2) they all are rather rural, with a few very big, dense cities, 3) they in fact have similar school holidays: Sweden uses different weeks in March in different areas, Finland's and Denmark's were the week of Feb 17, Estonia's the following week; and 4) despite not having mandatory lockdown, they did have recommended sheltering fairly early on, and by local reports it was observed moderately well.

The facts are that Sweden's curve shape is good, and similar to its neighbors, but they had SEVEN times the infection and death rate. Your arguments might hold water if that were TWICE the death rate, but it is SEVEN. Fifty percent of deaths occurred in elderly care facilities, and the 70+ age group accounted for almost 90 percent of all deaths. This really looks like "to hell with Granny," but I honestly believe that result was not anticipated. If Sweden could have controlled the disease in elder care facilities, and most of those deaths hadn't happened, it would have had rates a lot closer to those of its neighbors.

As far as economics goes, no one's crystal ball is working very well right now. Here's an interesting article from the IMF regarding Sweden and its neighbors.

Why are we talking about this anyway? Is it to "prove" that masks and social distancing aren't important? IMHO, the 140,000+ deaths in the US, and the shape of OUR curve, are more compelling than the shape of Sweden's.
 
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Conan

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Here’s what my Google searching turned up:



 

PigsDad

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According to an expert in Washington,DC high summer temperatures was going to halt COVID-19.
What expert was saying that? Do you have any references? The only people I heard saying that were politicians, not experts.

Kurt
 

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Sweden also has a much lower rate of obesity than in this country and we know much more likely to result in hospitalization and death in the obese population ( risk is increased 12 times more the obese).

tlwmkw
 

Luanne

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What expert was saying that? Do you have any references? The only people I heard saying that were politicians, not experts.

Kurt
I think Pedro should have put the word expert in quotes. That would have made his statement much clearer.
 

pedro47

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I’m LOL, at your post. Because, Everyone in DC are not expert’s.:hi::wave::banana::oops::unsure:o_O
 
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PigsDad

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I think Pedro should have put the word expert in quotes. That would have made his statement much clearer.
Ah, a little sarcasm emoji would have helped...

Kurt
 

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Interesting info @DannyTS . I’m of the opinion that those at risk (elderly, obese, diabetic, heart conditions) should remain at home and not risk going out. Anyone visiting them or caring for them should take the necessary precautions around them. This continuing shutdown in my state is severely depressing. It is killing small businesses and where does tax revenue come from if people can’t work? Those of us out and about should continue using common sense. Stupid corona virus parties and massive protests where I don’t see much social distancing being practiced are contributing to the rise in cases. The initial fear in the tri state area was overloading of hospitals. Red Cross ship was docked in NYC and Javits Center was turned into a care center. Both were barely used. I am of the thinking that the worst is over, and now we know what we are dealing with and how to be safe. Of course, I am not a doctor or an epidemiologist. I’m just a knuckle dragging Neanderthal.
 

CPNY

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I remember our gov going over an animated map of the United States With images of tidal waves on every major city in the country early on in the pandemic. He was outlining that New York will be having the first wave compared to the rest of the country in each city would follow after. Each city began to shut down shortly after New York shut down without having large cases (excluding California and Seattle) Could it be possible that New York already reached herd immunity? Could this now be the delayed tidal waves the other cities are experiencing? Although New York still has not opened up some things like Gyms, New Yorkers have been congregating at parks on the street outside of bars and everyone saw the debacle at fire Island for weeks, even before phase 1 began. Since Many have said it’s “ok” to be at parks or outdoors back when NYC was still completely shut down, then how can we blame Florida for opening beaches too soon??

There have been mass protest and gatherings since the civil unrest that has taken place. New Yorkers have definitely not been 100% compliant with social distancing yet we are not experiencing any sort of increase in positive cases. just this past weekend there was thousands of non masked wearing people have been congregating on Steinway street in Astoria in queens. This isn’t an anomaly either. Let’s not forget testing was non existent for the first 3 months of the pandemic in NY. I’ve already been tested for COVID 3 times with a 4th scheduled for travel in the past 3 weeks. Let’s not forget about the complete inaccuracies being reported with testing, from false results to rumors of not only positive results for tests not taken but completely irresponsible reporting (from the very beginning).

As far as immunity there are some that suggest there may be T cell immunity which is not detectable through antibody testing. There also may be some pre-existing immunity which means this virus has been around for a long time that much we know, as research has suggested it being found in sewage water in the EU back from March 2019. What we are seeing now may not be as alarming as we think. We know more tests will yield more positive cases. I’m wondering how things would look if we kept the same measures for hospital admissions and testing now as it was in March. The picture would be completely different. I’m remaining optimistic yet maintaining social distancing
 

DannyTS

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@isisdave Why should we not talk about this? The lockdowns around the world sent millions of people below the poverty line, millions of people lost their jobs, many are depressed and do not see the light at the end of the tunnel, many are desperate and can cause problems the developed world has not seen in decades. Many can die globally due to health care they will no longer afford. We were told that it was the only solution and many argued it had to last even longer when it stopped. Some argue even now it should be reinstated if there is another spike. If anything, we should want to know everything about Sweden.


Now back to your main argument, if you look at countries in Europe for example, you will find extreme differences in deaths/1 M pop among neighbors even if all those countries went into lock down. Geography does not seem to play a major role:
Belgium 845 vs Luxembourg 177
Spain 608 vs Portugal 166
San Marino 1238 vs Italy 580
You can also find plenty of other states and countries that had very different rates even if they are neighbors and had similar lock down approaches. Density also did not seem to play the main role in Europe, Italy had the biggest problem in the North which is not the most dense. Also, Sweden is 88% urban.

You cannot compare Sweden just to the neighbors but if that is what you want you will see that when the lockdown started to have an influence in the Nordic countries, Sweden already had a lot more deaths per capita.

According to the CDC, there is a minimum 4 week delay (without complications) from contact to the reporting of a death

1595277665124.png

If you look when the lockdowns started: Norway - March 12th, Denmark - March 13th, Finland - March 16th you will conclude that the lockdowns began to have an effect (again according to the CDC estimates) from April 15 forward (in red) . But that is the peak of deaths for Sweden and the other countries and it has gone downwards ever since which proves that the lack of lockdown has not been harmful in their case, they just started from a much worse place.

1595286394554.png

1595286654577.png








@tlwmkw higher death rates have not been observed in the United States so there is no evidence that US is more at risk as a country, maybe the great health care is a mitigating factor. Most deaths are still in the oldest population and I am not sure that part of the population is necessarily more obese.
 
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Brett

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@isisdave Why should we not talk about this? The lockdowns around the world sent millions of people below the poverty line, millions of people lost their jobs, many are depressed and do not see the light of the tunnel, many are desperate and can cause problems the developed world has not seen in decades. Many can die globally due to health care they will no longer afford. We were told that it was the only solution and many argued it had to last even longer when it stopped. Some argue even now it should be reinstated if there is another spike. If anything, we should want to know everything about Sweden.


Now back to your main argument, if you look at countries in Europe for example, you will find extreme differences in deaths/1 M pop among neighbors even if all those countries went into lock down. Geography does not seem to play a major role:
Belgium 845 vs Luxembourg 177
Spain 608 vs Portugal 166
San Marino 1238 vs Italy 580
You can also find plenty of other states and countries that had very different rates even if they are neighbors and had similar lock down approaches. Density also did not seem to play the main role in Europe, Italy had the biggest problem in the North which is not the most dense. Also, Sweden is 88% urban.

You cannot compare Sweden just to the neighbors but if that is what you want you will see when the lockdown started to have an influence in the Nordic countries, Sweden already had a lot more death per capita.

According to the CDC, there is a minimum 4 week delay (without complications) from contact to the reporting of a death

View attachment 23824
If you look when the lockdowns started: Norway - March 12th, Denmark - March 13th, Finland - March 16th you will conclude that the lockdowns began to have an effect (again according to the CDC estimates) from April 15 forward (in red) . But that is the peak of deaths for Sweden and the other countries and it has gone downwards ever since which proves that the lack of lockdown has not been harmful in their case, they just started from a much worse place.










@tlwmkw higher death rates have not been observed in the United States so there is no evidence that US is more at risk as a country. Most deaths are still in the oldest population and I am not sure that part is necessarily more obese.

starting from a "much worse place" is no excuse !

Skeptical experts in Sweden say its decision to have no lockdown is a terrible mistake
that no other nation should copy


https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-plan-is-a-cruel-mistake-skeptical-experts-say-2020-5?amp
 

DannyTS

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starting from a "much worse place" is no excuse !

Skeptical experts in Sweden say its decision to have no lockdown is a terrible mistake
that no other nation should copy


https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-plan-is-a-cruel-mistake-skeptical-experts-say-2020-5?amp
We all know how Sweden has been treated by the media and this is why I am trying to see if there is actually another angle that has been completely ignored. You can post an article or 100, besides showing no real contribution to this thread, you are just proving my point.
 

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...We were told that it was the only solution ...

I don't know who told you that, but I am quite interested in who said it. I haven't heard anyone call it a solution. Our spread was too fast, the virus was out of control. Like is happening again.

We saw country after country lockdown and emerge better. We are not emerging better, I might have been one arguing for longer, or later instantiation, depending on where. It was mentioned that lockdowns went in lockstep, which was a mistake, as it allowed the 'we don't have a problem here' to take hold in county after county in the mostly unaffected areas. Once the wave hit their shores, they had already opened and people already thought it was over. I personally think that is why we are continuing to see high spread.

Stopping the virus is about stopping transmission. Until a vaccine, the best we can do is mask and stay away from each other. Not a "solution", but the tools we have for managing the epidemic.

I would be much more depressed battling this in the hospital than any economic damage. If I don't live, who cares that I was employed when I died? I'm not going to be lying there thinking, dang, I forgot to email Sheila the RFP.... By the way, there is likely to be significant damage to the finances from getting the darned virus. We won't know for a very long time how many years of physical problems will persist, and how many of those need doctor treatment.

I would be more scared living with blood clots than in going bk. just me, and I stipulate to hardly being a mainstream thinker.
 

Brett

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We all know how Sweden has been treated by the media and this is why I am trying to see if there is actually another angle that has been completely ignored. You can post an article or 100, besides showing no real contribution to this thread, you are just proving my point.
and your point is ..... freedom?
or a certain "politician" doesn't like wearing masks ?
or (my guess) you don't like "mainstream" media

swed3.jpg


https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/07/20/sweden-coronavirus-covid-19-economic-pain-black-pkg-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn
 
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