Shouldn't epidemiologists revisit the case of Sweden? Hasn't their approach actually worked?

[DannyTS]

...We were told that it was the only solution ...

I don't know who told you that, but I am quite interested in who said it. I haven't heard anyone call it a solution. Our spread was too fast, the virus was out of control. Like is happening again.

We saw country after country lockdown and emerge better. We are not emerging better, I might have been one arguing for longer, or later instantiation, depending on where. It was mentioned that lockdowns went in lockstep, which was a mistake, as it allowed the 'we don't have a problem here' to take hold in county after county in the mostly unaffected areas. Once the wave hit their shores, they had already opened and people already thought it was over. I personally think that is why we are continuing to see high spread.

Stopping the virus is about stopping transmission. Until a vaccine, the best we can do is mask and stay away from each other. Not a "solution", but the tools we have for managing the epidemic.

I would be much more depressed battling this in the hospital than any economic damage. If I don't live, who cares that I was employed when I died? I'm not going to be lying there thinking, dang, I forgot to email Sheila the RFP.... By the way, there is likely to be significant damage to the finances from getting the darned virus. We won't know for a very long time how many years of physical problems will persist, and how many of those need doctor treatment.

I would be more scared living with blood clots than in going bk. just me, and I stipulate to hardly being a mainstream thinker.

It is not about you and me or so I hope. Ironically and unexpectedly I have had a good year, one of the best of the last few. You have your faith in your hands, you can stay home and isolate as much as you want and you will NOT catch the virus. You have a choice.

The poverty line is at $1.90 a day. If you have to live with $1 a day instead of $2 a day it does not mean you have to replace steak with chicken for dinner. It means you used to have rice and now you have nothing. They do not have a choice like you or I do. They feed their families or die. I understand that blood clots are not fun but hunger can't be fun either.

 

[CPNY]

and your point is ..... freedom?
or a certain "politician" doesn't like wearing masks ?
or (my guess) you don't like "mainstream" media

View attachment 23831

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/07/20/sweden-coronavirus-covid-19-economic-pain-black-pkg-intl-hnk-vpx.cnn

You should really pay for membership and support tug

 

[geekette]

It is not about you and me or so I hope. Ironically and unexpectedly I have had a good year, one of the best of the last few. You have your faith in your hands, you can stay home and isolate as much as you want and you will NOT catch the virus. You have a choice.

The poverty line is at $1.90 a day. If you have to live with $1 a day instead of $2 a day it does not mean you have to replace steak with chicken for dinner. It means you used to have rice and now you have nothing. They do not have a choice like you or I do. They feed their families or die. I understand that blood clots are not fun but hunger can't be fun either.

Which is why there are food banks and many many nutrition programs and more people than ever donating.

the pandemic is mostly not at all about me. I lost income like many others. Caused me to grow more food to help my neighbors. I would prefer to assist in getting food to the needy than forcing them to virus exposure. It's a matter of your money or your life. One could choose money, but I choose life. If the breadwinner dies of COVIN, the rest of family infected but alive, how does that help the family eat?

 

[DannyTS]

Which is why there are food banks and many many nutrition programs and more people than ever donating.

the pandemic is mostly not at all about me. I lost income like many others. Caused me to grow more food to help my neighbors. I would prefer to assist in getting food to the needy than forcing them to virus exposure. It's a matter of your money or your life. One could choose money, but I choose life. If the breadwinner dies of COVIN, the rest of family infected but alive, how does that help the family eat?

For someone in his 30's with a family to feed, the poverty is a much bigger health risk than Covid. Again, he (or she) does not have a choice like you and I.

Covid will push 71 million people under the poverty line and I do not think that those who go from $2.20 to $2 are that much better off so the situation is getting worse for a lot more. People cross the poverty line because they only have those resources at their disposal. While your efforts (and others) are laudable and they may help us feel better, they help few and don't resolve much in the real life.

Updated estimates of the impact of COVID-19 on global poverty

Using the newly launched growth forecasts from the Global Economic Prospects , we can update the estimate of the pandemic on global poverty. The new growth forecasts contain two scenarios—baseline and downside—allowing us to explore...

blogs.worldbank.org

 

[Chrispee]

For someone in his 30's with a family to feed, the poverty is a much bigger health risk than Covid. Again, he (or she) does not have a choice like you and I.

Covid will push 71 million people under thepoverty line and I do not thin that those that go from $2.20 to $2 are that much better off so the situation is getting worse for a lot more.

I agree with your assessment of the precarious position many North Americans are in with regards to the poverty line.

Why aren’t we having more discussions on TUG regarding the root issues with regards to why such a large percentage of the population is hovering the line; education and wage inequality.

 

[DannyTS]

I agree with your assessment of the precarious position many North Americans are in with regards to the poverty line.

Why aren’t we having more discussions on TUG regarding the root issues with regards to why such a large percentage of the population is hovering the line; education and wage inequality.

You are making a valid point and you can start another thread about that, I will be happy to contribute.

My previous comment was not just about US

 

[geekette]

I don't get it, Danny. Are you saying that no countries, and especially the poorest countries, should have taken any measures to stop the spread, and just let sickness and death come to everyone, poor or not? And that was somehow going to be "better"?

I definitely did not see any mention of solution-by-shutdown around the world. Each country handled their pandemic their way. Everyone had WHO and could pay attention or not.

Once you get into who has a choice to do what, that's a tough hand to play on a global basis. I am not understanding how you are weaving poverty into the Swedish experiment to extrapolate to the world, then apparently arguing that shut downs should not have occurred anywhere, but some authority somewhere said it was the solution? Getting baffled.

 

[CPNY]

You have your faith in your hands, you can stay home and isolate as much as you want and you will NOT catch the virus. You have a choice.

Not that accurate. On the tail end of NY wave before herd immunity may have been achieved, the cases were coming from people staying at home.

 

[DannyTS]

I don't get it, Danny. Are you saying that no countries, and especially the poorest countries, should have taken any measures to stop the spread, and just let sickness and death come to everyone, poor or not? And that was somehow going to be "better"?

I definitely did not see any mention of solution-by-shutdown around the world. Each country handled their pandemic their way. Everyone had WHO and could pay attention or not.

Once you get into who has a choice to do what, that's a tough hand to play on a global basis. I am not understanding how you are weaving poverty into the Swedish experiment to extrapolate to the world, then apparently arguing that shut downs should not have occurred anywhere, but some authority somewhere said it was the solution? Getting baffled.

What US did had consequences around the world. My point is that there might have been another way and Sweden is showing that. There are lessons to be learned for future pandemics, what is past is past, we cannot turn back the time. I am not sure why you call it the Swedish experiment. The whole world has been an experiment, everybody looked at the same set of data and models (many proved erroneous) and chose one way or another. There was nothing tried, tested and true in what US or Canada or others have done.

 

[Wyominguy]

Here is a recent chart from the CDC on how the death rate has plummeted since April in the US.

 

[CPNY]

Here is a recent chart from the CDC on how the death rate has plummeted since April in the US.View attachment 23838

Sounds like NY did a terrible job to me.

 

[Brett]

What US did had consequences around the world. My point is that there might have been another way and Sweden is showing that. There are lessons to be learned for future pandemics, what is past is past, we cannot turn back the time. I am not sure why you call it the Swedish experiment. The whole world has been an experiment, everybody looked at the same set of data and models (many proved erroneous) and chose one way or another. There was nothing tried, tested and true in what US or Canada or others have done.

sure, there are plenty of ways to handle viruses

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opin...munity-drove-up-death-toll-column/5472100002/

 

[artringwald]

If you sort by Deaths per 1M population, Sweden ranks #7 and the USA is #10 out of 215 countries.

 

[DannyTS]

@artringwald You can certainly compare Panama, Ecuador, Peru, Sint Martin as well as Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Andora, San Marino and other individual European countries with the United States and with Sweden if you believe that it will give you the best image of what is happening.

My view is that it is worth looking at the individual states in the US, the individual European countries and at the rest of the world because the United States is not a monolith when it comes to managing this pandemic, not to mention the size of the population and the territory.

 

[cman]

As @artringwald pointed out in his post, Sweden is #7 in deaths/million out of more than 200 countries. If you were to compare them to the individual states, they'd rank #17 in deaths per million. I don't see how you can call that a success.

 

[Brett]

As @artringwald pointed out in his post, Sweden is #7 in deaths/million out of more than 200 countries. If you were to compare them to the individual states, they'd rank #17 in deaths per million. I don't see how you can call that a success.

not a "success"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html?searchResultPosition=3

 

[DannyTS]

As @artringwald pointed out in his post, Sweden is #7 in deaths/million out of more than 200 countries. If you were to compare them to the individual states, they'd rank #17 in deaths per million. I don't see how you can call that a success.

Iran for example is number 28 on that list with 14,634 deaths and 278,827 total infected people. The Iranian officials estimate that 25 million people have been infected and not 278k . WTH! I do not know if the real number is 25 millions or 20 or 10 but I do not think anyone can say with a straight face that 278,827 is the actual number.
If I understand correctly you trust the reported numbers from countries like Burundi, Bhutan, Togo, Mexico, Brasil, Kyrgyzstan, Zimbabwe just to name a few and for that reason you can rank success among the 200 countries on that list.

Among the countries you can trust, Sweden is doing pretty well especially since we were let to believe that they were going to be number one on that list without a lockdown. The number of deaths in Sweden is 5% of what it should have been based on the initial models.

Also let's acknowledge that the last chapter of the virus has not been written yet. The deaths in Sweden may have been close to zero in the last week but you cannot say the same about the rest of the world.

Iran estimates it has 25 million coronavirus infections

Iran's president on Saturday estimated as many as 25 million Iranians could have been infected with the coronavirus since the outbreak's beginning, as he urged the public to take the pandemic seriously, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.

www.ctvnews.ca

 

[geekette]

....Also let's acknowledge that the last chapter of the virus has not been written yet.

I don't think we've made it to the middle page at this point. "Last Chapter End Date" would be a fun thing to wager on, except, I'm not sure we'll know it when it shows up, we'd know in hindsight.

I will say April 1, 2025 for last known case resolved.

 

[cman]

Iran for example is number 28 on that list with 14,634 deaths and 278,827 total infected people. The Iranian officials estimate that 25 million people have been infected and not 278k . WTH! I do not know if the real number is 25 millions or 20 or 10 but I do not think anyone can say with a straight face that 278,827 is the actual number.
If I understand correctly you trust the reported numbers from countries like Burundi, Bhutan, Togo, Mexico, Brasil, Kyrgyzstan, Zimbabwe just to name a few and for that reason you can rank success among the 200 countries on that list.

Among the countries you can trust, Sweden is doing pretty well especially since we were let to believe that they were going to be number one on that list without a lockdown. The number of deaths in Sweden is 5% of what it should have been based on the initial models.

Also let's acknowledge that the last chapter of the virus has not been written yet. The deaths in Sweden may have been close to zero in the last week but you cannot say the same about the rest of the world.

Iran estimates it has 25 million coronavirus infections

Iran's president on Saturday estimated as many as 25 million Iranians could have been infected with the coronavirus since the outbreak's beginning, as he urged the public to take the pandemic seriously, the state-run IRNA news agency reported.

www.ctvnews.ca

Not sure how we got on the subject of Iran. I'm just trying to understand what metric you're using that leads you to believe the Swedish approach is successful. Is it death rate? Infection rate? What?

It seems that the general consensus of most epidemiologist is that Sweden's approach was not successful. They decimated their vulnerable population and are now the pariahs of Europe. Their Nordic neighbors are now open to the rest of Europe but they don't allow Swedes in their borders.

 

[DannyTS]

Not sure how we got on the subject of Iran. I'm just trying to understand what metric you're using that leads you to believe the Swedish approach is successful. Is it death rate? Infection rate? What?

It seems that the general consensus of most epidemiologist is that Sweden's approach was not successful. They decimated their vulnerable population and are now the pariahs of Europe. Their Nordic neighbors are now open to the rest of Europe but they don't allow Swedes in their borders.

You will understand if you (re)read the OP.
Concerning "decimating" the vulnerable population, I do not know if you realize how far fetched that statement is especially given that Sweden has a number of deaths per 1 million people that is 3 times lower than New York and New Jersey. Are you saying that there are no more old people left in New York?

 

[cman]

You will understand if you (re)read the OP.
Concerning "decimating" the vulnerable population, I do not know if you realize how far fetched that statement is especially given that Sweden has a number of deaths per 1 million people that is 3 times lower than New York and New Jersey. Are you saying that there are no more old people left in New York?

New York and New Jersey failed to protect their vulnerable populations also. Primarily those in nursing homes.

Now back to my earlier question. What metric are you using to reach the conclusion that Sweden's approach was successful?

 

[grupp]

The reality is the Pandemic is not over and it is still too soon judge what the best course of action and whether or not this was successful, regardless of the current consensus of the epidemiologist. Sweden did admit that they didn't not do a very good job protecting the most vulnerable at the start of the pandemic, which greatly increased their death toll. I also read and interview form Swedish epidemiologist responsible for the plan and he expected the death total to be about the same in end, but in with their approach some would die sooner than following another plan. So, take that as you want, but as pointed out their daily death toll has greatly decreased.

I do think it strange the world has basically shunned them for taking a different approach whether it is successful or not. There seems to be a lot of people hoping they fail But that seems to be way things are now days if someone has a different opinion they are attached.

What we do know is that the all the "experts" have been wrong more than they have been right and the models used of not accurately predicted anything. Also, (sorry for the political opinion) the leaders on either side in our country don't give a damn about us and are only concerned about elections and having power. Best thing is that hopefully we can learn from this the next time we have a pandemic things will be handled better.

 

[artringwald]

@artringwald You can certainly compare Panama, Ecuador, Peru, Sint Martin as well as Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Andora, San Marino and other individual European countries with the United States and with Sweden if you believe that it will give you the best image of what is happening.

My view is that it is worth looking at the individual states in the US, the individual European countries and at the rest of the world because the United States is not a monolith when it comes to managing this pandemic, not to mention the size of the population and the territory.

I agree that comparing all the countries in the world is hard to do because of the amount of testing they do and how well they report the data. I remember when all this started that the whole point of shutting things down was to keep the medical system from getting overloaded. I've been tracking the COVID-19 hospital cases in my state since late March, and it looks like they've been doing a good job at opening up slowly to prevent a new peak.

It's really sad that the handling of the pandemic has become such a political issue. I wish that medical care would be balanced with economic impact, and not all one or all the other.

 

[geekette]

New York and New Jersey failed to protect their vulnerable populations also. Primarily those in nursing homes.

Now back to my earlier question. What metric are you using to reach the conclusion that Sweden's approach was successful?

Those are not the only 2 states with a large share of deaths in the confined settings. It has been weeks since I looked for that specific item, but we were running 30% of deaths for age 80+ overall, not senior homes only. But, there was an awful stretch of weeks in March and April when local news reported outbreak after outbreak in these types of places in our small towns.

My overall take away on how this went, was, failure to learn quickly.

 

[DannyTS]

New York and New Jersey failed to protect their vulnerable populations also. Primarily those in nursing homes.

Now back to my earlier question. What metric are you using to reach the conclusion that Sweden's approach was successful?

I have used from the very beginning deaths/ 1 million people.


Let's look at Pennsylvania if you do not like to compare with the other 10 states that have been doing (a lot ) worse than Sweden in terms of deaths/1 M pop.
10 people died in Sweden in the last 10 days, 135 in Pennsylvania. Both have virtually the same number of deaths/1M pop but Pennsylvania has been adding a lot more new cases and deaths lately so it will probably be in a much worse place in few weeks. According to you the epidemiologists consider Sweden a failure but CDC has praised Pennsylvania for doing "the right thing". Why the double standard?