 Joined
 Jul 19, 2007
 Messages
 6,669
 Reaction score
 1,150
 Points
 449
 Location
 Carlsbad, CA
 Resorts Owned
 Marriott: Maui Ocean Club Lahaina Villas (3BRx5), Ko Olina, Shadow Ridge II, Willow Ridge, Aruba Ocean Club, DC Points HGVC: Flamingo, Sea World, IDrive, Starwood Bella (x4), SDO, TradeWinds, Worldmark
*** 5/1/16  This link to the current, active ROFR database is added with the OP's permission: ROFR Experiences (www.rofr.net) ***
All,
I have had a few PMs asking me to compute ROFR metrics for various offers, which I am happy to do, and also asking for the history of this unofficial metric. The following thread is where we collected the data (such as it is).
I've taken the Points Value spreadsheet that TUGgers helped compile a couple of years back, and computed the ROFR metric for all weeks.
Accordingly, the attached is a hypothetical price of what should clear ROFR, if the metric can predict a ROFR exercise.
Please note, this approach is imperfect and I would hate to see a TUGger increase their bid based solely on this  please make an offer price of what the week is worth to you. And please consult with a broker on what has been passing ROFR lately, they will have the most current information.
Anyone can compute their own ROFR metric:
1) Start with the DC Points that the underlying week is worth (example: 3,000 DC Points)
2) Multiply #1 by $10 per point (representing how much Marriott can sell the related points for if they ROFR it and deposit to the Trust  example: 3,000 * $10/point = $30,000)
3) Take your Offer Price ($5,000?) and divide it by the result of #2 (example: $5,000 / $30,000 = 16.6%)
4) The resulting percentage will likely be between 5%  35%.
My theory is that weeks where #4 is less than 23% have a greater probability of not passing ROFR than if #4 is greater than 23%. It is based on the linked thread up above.
I welcome comments, corrections and more recent data. Good luck!
Best,
Greg
All,
I have had a few PMs asking me to compute ROFR metrics for various offers, which I am happy to do, and also asking for the history of this unofficial metric. The following thread is where we collected the data (such as it is).
I've taken the Points Value spreadsheet that TUGgers helped compile a couple of years back, and computed the ROFR metric for all weeks.
Accordingly, the attached is a hypothetical price of what should clear ROFR, if the metric can predict a ROFR exercise.
Please note, this approach is imperfect and I would hate to see a TUGger increase their bid based solely on this  please make an offer price of what the week is worth to you. And please consult with a broker on what has been passing ROFR lately, they will have the most current information.
Anyone can compute their own ROFR metric:
1) Start with the DC Points that the underlying week is worth (example: 3,000 DC Points)
2) Multiply #1 by $10 per point (representing how much Marriott can sell the related points for if they ROFR it and deposit to the Trust  example: 3,000 * $10/point = $30,000)
3) Take your Offer Price ($5,000?) and divide it by the result of #2 (example: $5,000 / $30,000 = 16.6%)
4) The resulting percentage will likely be between 5%  35%.
My theory is that weeks where #4 is less than 23% have a greater probability of not passing ROFR than if #4 is greater than 23%. It is based on the linked thread up above.
I welcome comments, corrections and more recent data. Good luck!
Best,
Greg
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