Dave,
I have spoken to many of the other brokers, as well as my contacts in Marriott, and the other brokers have spoken to their contacts at Marriott. No one has been able to confirm what is being posted. They have brought up a number of questions though:
1. If this is to be begin with usage early 2009, as people can book 1 year to 13 months in advance, wouldn't they have to start depositing their weeks immediately for early 2009 units?
2. If Marriott is going to give any difference in ability to trade, how are they going to deal with Hawaii, Arizona and a few other state laws that prohibit that (as Weston just made those states mandatory)?
3. Interval International offers bonus certificates for many Marriott deposits. How will Marriott compete with that?
4. Interval International will often offer upgrades (have a studio trade for a 1 bedroom or 1 bedroom trade for 2 bedroom). Interval does this because they have a number of people who deposit but don't book. Marriott cannot count on that with a brand new exchange process. How would they compete?
5. Many Marriott owners don't trade for other Marriotts. How would Marriott compete with that? or would they just recommend trading through Interval?
6. Many people like the request first option. Would Marriott have that option?
7. Many people want to be able to request various properties, both Marriott and non- Marriott. How can this happen?
8. Marriott already tried an internal trade, the Florida Club. For the most part, it is a failure. Why would this be any better?
9. Why would Interval International permit Marriott to set up their own program if this would potentially cost them about Fifty Million dollars per year? Wouldn't they set up a tremendous marketing campaign to try to keep their owners. Wouldn't they offer 2 for 1 memberships, bonus certificates and reduced exchange fees?
Sorry for being so pessimistic, but we (me and about 25 other broker/agents) have been trying to have anyone at Marriott corroborate the information posted and cannot. We have also been trying to get answers to the questions above, and cannot get answers.
Seth,
These are great questions. The only way that Marriott can realistically pull this internal exchange program is by fiat or by creating an overlay program.
Fiat would be the most effective in ensuring long term success. But, the short term problems that would result would be massive. Just imagine 100,000 owners calling Marriott call centers asking the questions you just posed. That is what Marriott would be signing up for with the fiat approach.
Overlay program would be less disruptive, but it would also make it difficult to get conversions. They would have an issue similar to RCI Points.
One thing that Dave M didn't say is that in order for Marriott to make a January 1, 2009 launch date, they need to have a lot in place now since development and test needs to be done. If there isn't a spec now, there is no way they can launch it on Jan 1, 2009. My guess is that they will announce it on Jan 1, 2009 and it will be delayed as everything else is when development is required.
I have thought of another way that Marriott can implement this project. What Marriott can do is require 100% of deposits to be placed with Marriott first. Then, Marriott decides what weeks get deposited into II. They just keep the best stuff for Marriott owners. All this would take is a slightly modified afflilation agreement with II and II can work pretty much the same.
The biggest issue with this would be the anger a Maui MOC owner would have if Marriott deposited a Branson week for trade.
A full overlay point system that is similar to Hyatt would be the best option, in my opinion. That would give Marriott a more competitive product and a reason for owners to upgrade into it. But, this may be too big of a product to swallow all at once. Marriott could first get control of the inventory by controlling all deposits to II. Then, once they have control of the inventory, they can overlay the points program on top.
I believe that Marriott's objective must be more than to simply take over internal exchanges. There is not that much money to be made there. They must be doing this project to make their product more competitive with their point system competitors.
The good news for timeshare brokers is there will be plenty of money to be made assisting customers in the upgrade process. People make a living doing just that in other point systems that were once fixed/floating week oriented.