New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly

[caribbeanqueen]

Cornell, not sure about that. Suicides, drug abuse, mental health are all way up due to this virus and the shut down. You could argue the media hyping it up more helped with anxiety and worry but I believe the shut down has caused the majority of these upticks. It is worse than anyone can imagine.
Businesses are tanking, the economy is so bad one wonders how long it will take to come back. There is so much more to this.
In RI it just came out their numbers were skewed 10% higher. Most deaths are elderly and many are said to have died from Covid but you now have to wonder who really died from it? My mom is in a nursing home in Florida that has had 30 deaths. Her roommate was one of the first to get it yet she did not thankfully. Masks and social distance DO WORK. Now you have the young adults and teens hanging out in big groups with no masks. They are the ones bringing up many of the bumps in cases.
FWIW I worked in the healthcare field for years and feel perfectly safe going out and about anywhere as long as I can wear a mask if I am around too many people, in the stores, etc. I never wear a mask outside but also I have not been in any type of group setting except a beach where everyone was distanced quite a bit. I wore my mask getting on and off the beach. I think the shut downs are not needed. Distancing and wearing a mask are all that is needed. I do believe in herd immunity and keeping the elderly and those with compromised immune systems home and safe. JMO

 

[WVBaker]

My belief is that if this had happened pre-internet, we wouldn't be in the mess we are now.

The internet plays such an important role in our daily lives in both good and bad ways. In ways we're not even aware of. When we look at the number of individuals suspected of having C-19, do we verify the positivity rate of those cases? I've watched the numbers for Maryland, Virginia and Washington D.C. over the past few weeks and noted that when reported, you may have perhaps several hundreds of cases reported however, the positivity rate for those numbers is only a small percentage. Perhaps only 3 to 5 percent. We keep hearing of the large number of those returning to school, coming down with C-19 but, within those reports, is this the actual tested and verified numbers? Do we even know to look for that information or do we just stop?

Just as a side note regarding the internet. When we have the constant changing of suspected symptoms, not only on the internet but news reports, how does that play on each of us?

A very good piece on how hearing those symptoms every day and every night.

"Suzanne O’Sullivan is a neurologist specializing in epilepsy who practices in London. Many of her patients suffer from so-called conversion disorders: somatic symptoms caused by psychological distress that defy ready diagnosis by medical tests or physical examination. “They are medical disorders like no others,” O’Sullivan writes. “They obey no rules. They can affect any part of the body…. Almost any symptom we can imagine can become real when we are in distress.”

"...., I still found myself, desperate for time, deeply resenting these patients’ requests for attention. “Psychiatric disorders manifesting as physical disease are at the very bottom of that pile,” O’Sullivan notes. “They are the charlatans of illnesses. We laugh at them.”

"How easily we accept…different facets of laughter. It is a physical display of emotion, its mechanism is ill-understood, it is not always under our voluntary control, it affects our whole body, it stops our breathing and speeds up our heart, it serves a purpose, it releases tension and communicates feelings. Laughter is the ultimate psychosomatic symptom."

Sick But Not Sick
The mind is one of the most powerful generators of bodily symptoms.

Sick But Not Sick | Jerome Groopman

Suzanne O’Sullivan is a neurologist specializing in epilepsy who practices in London. Many of her patients suffer from so-called conversion disorders: somatic symptoms caused by psychological distress that defy ready diagnosis by medical tests or physical examination. “They are medical disorders...

getpocket.com

 

[grupp]

There are a lot of health issues that will result from the hard lockdowns that we will never be able to measure. Using myself as an example, once our Governor allowed some things to open, I needed to go to my Dr to for am annual check up in mid-June in order to refill my blood pressure medication. During the appointment I mention I had a few spots on my face and was wondering if it was anything to be concerned about. She said nothing appeared to be very alarming, but recommending an appointment with a Dermatologist since I have very fair skin and am sun sensitive. They were not taking in person appointments until July and thought it might be good time to schedule something once they open.

I called to schedule my appointment and was given the option of virtual appointment in a few days or in person in late July. I decided to go for the virtual appointment. Found out the spots on my skin were pre-cancer and easily treated, but wanted me to come in to look at another spot on the side of my face. During the call I as an afterthought I also had them look at at a spot on top of my head my wife had noticed and they believed it to be an age spot and again nothing that appears to be a concern. The Dr said her office would contact me to schedule an appointment when the opened in a few weeks to treat my pre-cancer and look closer at the spot on face and the top of my head.

July comes and never receive a call for the follow up appointment. I was busy with work an probably let it go longer than I should have and finally decided to follow up mid-July. Due the backlog from the lockdown the next available appointment was now the end of November. I was little frustrated, not because I had any concerns, but that they hadn't followed through and contacted me for the appointment and now I was looking at another 4 months. I asked the scheduler to send a note to the Dr and see if she could find a way to fit me in since they had dropped the ball on scheduling my follow up, which they were able to do and I got in last week. The Dr did apologize for them not calling to schedule my appointment, but said when they reopened on July 1, things were crazy with them trying to get organized and everyone trying to get in for an appointment.

Turns out the spot on the top of my head was not an age spot but is nodular melanoma, which is the most aggressive form. While nodular melanoma only is about 15-25% of melanoma diagnoses it caused about half the deaths. From what I have read, it can, it can become fatal within months of diagnosis. As one article I read put it, this type of melanoma spreads in weeks and months not months and years. Fortunately mine is in the early stages and am having it removed next week. When my Dr called to give me news she said 4 o 5 times how lucky I was I came in when I did.

From what I understand, the 5 yr survival rate for my T1A nodular melanoma is around 98% or maybe slightly less since it is on my scalp. If it had progressed to stage 3 the survival rate goes down to around around 65% and stage 4 goes down to 25%.

Sorry for the long post, but my point is that these hard lockdowns have unintended consequences that are not easily measured or even noticed. There will be missed diagnosis and treatment of health issues that are not related to the virus it self. If my State had not reopened for in person appointments when they did, my prognosis may have been quite different and I am sure there are many who will not be as fortunate as me.

 

[TravelTime]

There are a lot of health issues that will result from the hard lockdowns that we will never be able to measure. Using myself as an example, once our Governor allowed some things to open, I needed to go to my Dr to for am annual check up in mid-June in order to refill my blood pressure medication. During the appointment I mention I had a few spots on my face and was wondering if it was anything to be concerned about. She said nothing appeared to be very alarming, but recommending an appointment with a Dermatologist since I have very fair skin and am sun sensitive. They were not taking in person appointments until July and thought it might be good time to schedule something once they open.

I called to schedule my appointment and was given the option of virtual appointment in a few days or in person in late July. I decided to go for the virtual appointment. Found out the spots on my skin were pre-cancer and easily treated, but wanted me to come in to look at another spot on the side of my face. During the call I as an afterthought I also had them look at at a spot on top of my head my wife had noticed and they believed it to be an age spot and again nothing that appears to be a concern. The Dr said her office would contact me to schedule an appointment when the opened in a few weeks to treat my pre-cancer and look closer at the spot on face and the top of my head.

July comes and never receive a call for the follow up appointment. I was busy with work an probably let it go longer than I should have and finally decided to follow up mid-July. Due the backlog from the lockdown the next available appointment was now the end of November. I was little frustrated, not because I had any concerns, but that they hadn't followed through and contacted me for the appointment and now I was looking at another 4 months. I asked the scheduler to send a note to the Dr and see if she could find a way to fit me in since they had dropped the ball on scheduling my follow up, which they were able to do and I got in last week. The Dr did apologize for them not calling to schedule my appointment, but said when they reopened on July 1, things were crazy with them trying to get organized and everyone trying to get in for an appointment.

Turns out the spot on the top of my head was not an age spot but is nodular melanoma, which is the most aggressive form. While nodular melanoma only is about 15-25% of melanoma diagnoses it caused about half the deaths. From what I have read, it can, it can become fatal within months of diagnosis. As one article I read put it, this type of melanoma spreads in weeks and months not months and years. Fortunately mine is in the early stages and am having it removed next week. When my Dr called to give me news she said 4 o 5 times how lucky I was I came in when I did.

From what I understand, the 5 yr survival rate for my T1A nodular melanoma is around 98% or maybe slightly less since it is on my scalp. If it had progressed to stage 3 the survival rate goes down to around around 65% and stage 4 goes down to 25%.

Sorry for the long post, but my point is that these hard lockdowns have unintended consequences that are not easily measured or even noticed. There will be missed diagnosis and treatment of health issues that are not related to the virus it self. If my State had not reopened for in person appointments when they did, my prognosis may have been quite different and I am sure there are many who will not be as fortunate as me.

I am glad you got in when you did. I hope you will be okay.

 

[DavidnRobin]

CDC no longer recommends asymptomatic testing

View attachment 25363

Healthcare Workers

COVID-19 guidance, tools, and resources for healthcare workers.

www.cdc.gov

As a Scientist (retired) in the field of disease modeling for years - I was extremely surprised and sad to see this.
Without testing, there is no way to accurately determine the asymptomatic rates (as they carry SARS-CoV-2 up to 40%), and people do not know if they are carriers or if they have come into contact with carriers...) as long as testing asymptomatic people doesn’t impact testing positives (that no longer exists). Not to test makes no sense scientifically.

I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA - and this CDC Recommendation does nothing to dispel my worries.

C.D.C. Now Says People Without Covid-19 Symptoms Do Not Need Testing (Published 2020)

The revision prompted confusion and alarm from experts, who called the move “potentially dangerous.”

www.nytimes.com

Interesting as I was writing this - the following should showed up on our local far-left fake news outlet (sarcasm).

and Danny - no need to respond - you’ve been muted for a while...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[DannyTS]

As a Scientist (retired) in the field of disease modeling for years - I was extremely surprised and sad to see this.
Without testing, there is no way to accurately determine the asymptomatic rates (as they carry SARS-CoV-2 up to 40%), and people do not know if they are carriers or if they have come into contact with carriers...) as long as testing asymptomatic people doesn’t impact testing positives (that no longer exists). Not to test makes no sense scientifically.

I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA - and this CDC Recommendation does nothing to dispel my worries.

C.D.C. Now Says People Without Covid-19 Symptoms Do Not Need Testing (Published 2020)

The revision prompted confusion and alarm from experts, who called the move “potentially dangerous.”

www.nytimes.com

Interesting as I was writing this - the following should showed up on our local far-left fake news outlet (sarcasm).

and Danny - no need to respond - you’ve been muted for a while...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It is follow the science but only when you agree with them, I know.

 

[jabberwocky]

As a Scientist (retired) in the field of disease modeling for years - I was extremely surprised and sad to see this.
Without testing, there is no way to accurately determine the asymptomatic rates (as they carry SARS-CoV-2 up to 40%), and people do not know if they are carriers or if they have come into contact with carriers...) as long as testing asymptomatic people doesn’t impact testing positives (that no longer exists). Not to test makes no sense scientifically.

You're defining science a bit too narrowly - behavioral scientists may have a different view. If your sole objective in testing is to determine asymptomatic rates, then of course you want to test as many people as possible. Actually, you would probably want to do it as simultaneously as possible with a large non-biased sample. What Hong Kong is doing right now with testing nearly their whole population in seven days is a good example of this. I'm a big proponent of testing and contact tracing as I believe they are critical to containing the spread of the disease.

There is also an alternative hypothesis for why you would not recommend the widespread testing of asymptomatic individuals: people do stupid things. There is a large proportion of people who after they have been cleared for covid may decide that they can engage in risky behaviors because they are "virus-free". This would be a problem if the test doesn't have good enough specificity to avoid false negatives or if they pick it up shortly after the test is done. There are legitimate reasons for asymptomatic people to get a test (required for work, high-risk group, travel). As far as I know, there is no prohibition on asymptomatic individuals getting a test and capacity seems to be sufficient in most places. That is very different from actively recommending everyone gets tested.

 

[davidvel]

You're defining science a bit too narrowly - behavioral scientists may have a different view. pointsIf your sole objective in testing is to determine asymptomatic rates, then of course you want to test as many people as possible. Actually, you would probably want to do it as simultaneously as possible with a large non-biased sample. What Hong Kong is doing right now with testing nearly their whole population in seven days is a good example of this. I'm a big proponent of testing and contact tracing as I believe they are critical to containing the spread of the disease.

There is also an alternative hypothesis for why you would not recommend the widespread testing of asymptomatic individuals: people do stupid things. There is a large proportion of people who after they have been cleared for covid may decide that they can engage in risky behaviors because they are "virus-free". This would be a problem if the test doesn't have good enough specificity to avoid false negatives or if they pick it up shortly after the test is done. There are legitimate reasons for asymptomatic people to get a test (required for work, high-risk group, travel). As far as I know, there is no prohibition on asymptomatic individuals getting a test and capacity seems to be sufficient in most places. That is very different from actively recommending everyone gets tested.

There may be lots of objectives for testing various ways, but how you test certainly impacts public viewpoints and governmental policy. The more you test symptomatic cases, and the fewer asymptomatic are tested, the higher the rates of positive tests you will see. Many governments are using these rates to shut down people and businesses.

 

[WVBaker]

"Avoid posting about politics, religion, or contentious social issues"

 

[DannyTS]

And now...

btw - if anyone wants to share professional LinkedIn information - I would be happy to oblige.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

this is probably an attempt to get the thread closed by the administrators. I hope they will see it for what it is. By the way, the article is probably a case of "she said he said" like we have seen so many in the past. In the article:

But Dr. Giroir denied that politics were involved.

“There was no weight on the scales by the (removed),” he said, referring to (removed), the secretary of health and human services. “This was a product produced by the scientific and medical people that was discussed extensively at the task force.”

note: I removed the names myself

 

[PigsDad]

There may be lots of objectives for testing various ways, but how you test certainly impacts public viewpoints and governmental policy. The more you test symptomatic cases, and the fewer asymptomatic are tested, the higher the rates of positive tests you will see. Many governments are using these rates to shut down people and businesses.

I think a lot of people don't take this into consideration when looking at the positive test rates that are published. It makes no sense to use the positive test percentage for any kind of analysis or decision making unless they are only using data from the testing of a random sample of people.

Kurt

 

[Cornell]

Isn't anyone concerned about false positives with mass testing of asymptotic people ? And the implications they can cause? I know I am.

 

[Rjbeach2003]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

Sweden embraced herd immunity, while the U.K. abandoned the idea — so why do they both have high COVID-19 fatality rates?

‘Sweden’s prized herd immunity is nowhere in sight,’ according to an analysis in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.

www.marketwatch.com

Sweden is developing herd immunity, some of the country’s experts claim, but the figures say otherwise

Sweden has an overall COVID-related death rate of 57.12 per 100,000, which is the ninth highest in the world, according to Johns Hopkins University

www.marketwatch.com

Stop Trying To Make ‘Herd Immunity’ Happen: Sweden’s Attempt At Covid-19 Herd Immunity Failed

Health authorities predicted that 40% of the Stockholm population would have had the disease and acquired antibodies by May 2020. The actual prevalence figure is around 15%.

www.forbes.com

These are just four links to stories on herd immunity in that country across the water from Denmark, and sharing a border with Finland and Norway. It looks like there is no definitive answer. If it pleases you to believe in Herd Immunity or not. Note Marketwatch had articles 3 days apart with opposing headlines.
However I defer to the world's leading scientists on herd immunity and pandemics that post here.

 

[DannyTS]

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Overview

COVID-19 is a new type of coronavirus that causes mild to severe cases. Here’s a quick guide on how to spot symptoms, risk factors, prevent spread of the disease, and find out what to do if you think you have it.

www.webmd.com

Sweden embraced herd immunity, while the U.K. abandoned the idea — so why do they both have high COVID-19 fatality rates?

‘Sweden’s prized herd immunity is nowhere in sight,’ according to an analysis in the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine.

www.marketwatch.com

Sweden is developing herd immunity, some of the country’s experts claim, but the figures say otherwise

Sweden has an overall COVID-related death rate of 57.12 per 100,000, which is the ninth highest in the world, according to Johns Hopkins University

www.marketwatch.com

Stop Trying To Make ‘Herd Immunity’ Happen: Sweden’s Attempt At Covid-19 Herd Immunity Failed

Health authorities predicted that 40% of the Stockholm population would have had the disease and acquired antibodies by May 2020. The actual prevalence figure is around 15%.

www.forbes.com

These are just four links to stories on herd immunity in that country across the water from Denmark, and sharing a border with Finland and Norway. It looks like there is no definitive answer. If it pleases you to believe in Herd Immunity or not. Note Marketwatch had articles 3 days apart with opposing headlines.
However I defer to the world's leading scientists on herd immunity and pandemics that post here.

There is no law I know that states that the virus has to spread equally among neighboring countries (even those with identical measures) and that that's the only comparison that matters. Have you noticed that none of those "leading scientists" mentions the most obvious fact, that Sweden's number of deaths has been virtually zero for a month? I also have to point out that many scientists have a vested interest in Sweden's failure, Sweden's success would mean they have been wrong about a lot of things concerning this pandemic.

deaths/day Sweden

 

[Brett]

Isn't anyone concerned about false positives with mass testing of asymptotic people ? And the implications they can cause? I know I am.

it's on the news tonight -

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...top-stories_virus-cdc-330p:homepage/story-ans

 

[Cornell]

it's on the news tonight -

View attachment 25478

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...top-stories_virus-cdc-330p:homepage/story-ans

I can’t read this bc of the paywall so not sure how this addresses my question.

 

[Brett]

I can’t read this bc of the paywall so not sure how this addresses my question.

the first two paragraphs

"An abrupt shift this week in government testing guidelines for Americans exposed to the novel coronavirus was directed by the White House coronavirus task force, surprising and dismaying many public health experts.

The new guidance, introduced this week without any announcement in a posting on the website of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, eliminated advice that everyone exposed to the virus through close contact with an infected individual get tested to find out whether they are positive, regardless of whether they have symptoms.
Several leading infectious-disease experts say they feared the change will increase public confusion and further spread of the disease. The CDC estimates that 40 percent of those infected with the coronavirus have no symptoms but may spread it to other people."

https://www.npr.org/sections/health...lines-could-lead-to-less-testing-experts-fear

 

[Cornell]

I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA

I'm worried about the politicizing of our children's educations.

 

[Brett]

As a Scientist (retired) in the field of disease modeling for years - I was extremely surprised and sad to see this.
Without testing, there is no way to accurately determine the asymptomatic rates (as they carry SARS-CoV-2 up to 40%), and people do not know if they are carriers or if they have come into contact with carriers...) as long as testing asymptomatic people doesn’t impact testing positives (that no longer exists). Not to test makes no sense scientifically.

I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA - and this CDC Recommendation does nothing to dispel my worries.

C.D.C. Now Says People Without Covid-19 Symptoms Do Not Need Testing (Published 2020)

The revision prompted confusion and alarm from experts, who called the move “potentially dangerous.”

www.nytimes.com

Interesting as I was writing this - the following should showed up on our local far-left fake news outlet (sarcasm).

and Danny - no need to respond - you’ve been muted for a while...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

"I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA - and this CDC Recommendation does nothing to dispel my worries."

That ship has already sailed .....

 

[WVBaker]

"I am worried about the recent politicizing of the CDC, NIH, and FDA - and this CDC Recommendation does nothing to dispel my worries."

That ship has already sailed .....

"Worrying is like a rocking chair, it gives you something to do, but it gets you nowhere."
Glenn Turner

 

[DannyTS]

Lockdown-free Brazilian city ‘reaches herd immunity’ as coronavirus cases suddenly fall

Lockdown-free Brazilian city ‘reaches herd immunity’ as virus cases fall

A CITY in Brazil which did not lockdown may have reached herd immunity, experts have said. Manaus, in the Amazon, has seen a dramatic fall in coronavirus cases and deaths since hitting 3,300 fatali…

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[davidvel]

Lockdown-free Brazilian city ‘reaches herd immunity’ as coronavirus cases suddenly fall

Lockdown-free Brazilian city ‘reaches herd immunity’ as virus cases fall

A CITY in Brazil which did not lockdown may have reached herd immunity, experts have said. Manaus, in the Amazon, has seen a dramatic fall in coronavirus cases and deaths since hitting 3,300 fatali…

www.thesun.co.uk

If my math is right, they have a death per population rate of .165% vs. .061% for the US, or about 2.75x as many deaths per population.

 

[DannyTS]

If my math is right, they have a death per population rate of .165% vs. .061% for the US, or about 2.75x as many deaths per population.

Their death rate is terrible. Probably they did not protect the population at risk, they are an example of what not to do. I posted the article because it seems to be another strong indication that we do not need 60-70% to reach herd immunity with this virus.

 

[DavidnRobin]

Here you go - knowledge is good.
Free and Open to public.

New Subject Offering: "COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 and the Pandemic"

In Fall 2020, all MIT students and the general public are welcome to join Professors Richard Young and Facundo Batista as they discuss the science of the pandemic during this new class.

biology.mit.edu

Syllabus:

Enjoy.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[DannyTS]

Here you go - knowledge is good.
Free and Open to public.

New Subject Offering: "COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 and the Pandemic"

In Fall 2020, all MIT students and the general public are welcome to join Professors Richard Young and Facundo Batista as they discuss the science of the pandemic during this new class.

biology.mit.edu

Syllabus:

Enjoy.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

They are off for a good start. Dr. Bruce Walker began the project back in March with money from China Evergrande Group owned by one of the richest men in China and with strong connections to the ruling party. I wonder how they got the money so fast. Prior engagements? Why did they need 115 million dollars? That is 1.4 million dollars for every scientist in the project.

Science | AAAS

www.sciencemag.org

I am curious if they are going to begin the course by acknowledging that the initial models were dead wrong.