New Thinking on Covid Lockdowns: They’re Overly Blunt and Costly

[WinniWoman]

I suspected that you were asking this to get an idea of how risk averse we are since you mention something about immunity was but it was not clear to me. I answered the question based on my assessment of risk so I said I would prefer Florida. My family lives there and so far no one has gotten sick or died that we know and several family members are essential workers. I do not see living in FL as a big risk if you follow safety guidelines. Immunity does not affect my choice.

I know a ton of people in Florida and none thankfully have gotten COVID and some are older folks. We are ruining younger people’s lives and businesses with this lockdown stuff instead of just the vulnerable being the ones to be isolated. Oh wait, I’m 64- Nope not isolating myself either by choice if I can help it. I’d move wherever I wanted to despite COVID numbers. Ok it helps I don’t like urban areas. And mask up only in places I need to go to where they are required- but only IF required. So I would move wherever there are the least restrictions or no restrictions IF I ever were to move again which I don’t see doing. NH has had less restrictions than other places but for me still too many.

 

[bluehende]

Here you go - knowledge is good.
Free and Open to public.

New Subject Offering: "COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2 and the Pandemic"

In Fall 2020, all MIT students and the general public are welcome to join Professors Richard Young and Facundo Batista as they discuss the science of the pandemic during this new class.

biology.mit.edu

Syllabus:

Enjoy.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Thanks for posting

 

[rapmarks]

Spoke to health professional today in Wisconsin who reiterated that wearing masks has lowered the incidence of Covid in Wisconsin. The mask mandate went into effect august 1

 

[TravelTime]

I know a ton of people in Florida and none thankfully have gotten COVID and some are older folks. We are ruining younger people’s lives and businesses with this lockdown stuff instead of just the vulnerable being the ones to be isolated. Oh wait, I’m 64- Nope not isolating myself either by choice if I can help it. I’d move wherever I wanted to despite COVID numbers. Ok it helps I don’t like urban areas. And mask up only in places I need to go to where they are required- but only IF required. So I would move wherever there are the least restrictions or no restrictions IF I ever were to move again which I don’t see doing. NH has had less restrictions than other places but for me still too many.

Covid is a short term issue. I hope the people who are making permanent moves are moving places they can stay long term. A lot of people are moving to the suburbs and rural places but I wonder what will happen if/when their jobs call them back. For example, Amazon and Apple are renting more office space in NYC. I suspect the WFH will not last forever.

 

[WinniWoman]

Covid is a short term issue. I hope the people who are making permanent moves are moving places they can stay long term. A lot of people are moving to the suburbs and rural places but I wonder what will happen if/when their jobs call them back. For example, Amazon and Apple are renting more office space in NYC. I suspect the WFH will not last forever.

Totally agree. We saw this in NY after 9/11. And people buying McMansions in the burbs and rural areas, only to lose their jobs or suddenly realize that long commute was to hard to handle. And the country lifestyle did not have the conveniences they were used to. Then selling or foreclosing on their homes they paid way too much money for in the first place, though to them at the time they were “ bargains”.

 

[DannyTS]

Sweden continues to relax the measures:

Swedish Health Agency approves limited soccer crowds

Swedish Health Agency approves limited soccer crowds | SaltWire

STOCKHOLM (Reuters) - Swedish concert goers and soccer fans can be allowed back in venues from October after the country's Health Agency accepted a ...

www.theguardian.pe.ca

 

[Chrispee]

Totally agree. We saw this in NY after 9/11. And people buying McMansions in the burbs and rural areas, only to lose their jobs or suddenly realize that long commute was to hard to handle. And the country lifestyle did not have the conveniences they were used to. Then selling or foreclosing on their homes they paid way too much money for in the first place, though to them at the time they were “ bargains”.

Not to diminish its significance, but 9/11 was an acute event that killed 2977 people in a short defined time span. Coronavirus has killed 833,173 (Worldometers) people as I post this and it is an ongoing event with no resolution in sight. IMO the two aren’t anywhere near comparable when predicting long term societal and behavioural changes.

 

[Brett]

Norway to allow companies to send staff home

https://www.thelocal.no/20200813/norway-to-allow-companies-to-send-staff-home-until-next-year

 

[Big Matt]

Covid is a short term issue. I hope the people who are making permanent moves are moving places they can stay long term. A lot of people are moving to the suburbs and rural places but I wonder what will happen if/when their jobs call them back. For example, Amazon and Apple are renting more office space in NYC. I suspect the WFH will not last forever.

This is going to be prolonged. Companies will not require people to come back to the office for a really long time. It is near impossible to socially distance in most office environments. In big metro areas with high rise buildings you can't cram people into elevators. In Manhattan, people aren't going to take the subway to work in droves like before. The liability for a company who mandates workers on site isn't worth the trouble. I see the short term issue going out approximately 3 years and by then the norm has changed.

 

[TravelTime]

This is going to be prolonged. Companies will not require people to come back to the office for a really long time. It is near impossible to socially distance in most office environments. In big metro areas with high rise buildings you can't cram people into elevators. In Manhattan, people aren't going to take the subway to work in droves like before. The liability for a company who mandates workers on site isn't worth the trouble. I see the short term issue going out approximately 3 years and by then the norm has changed.

I hope you are right. I prefer the work from home situation. I hope it never returns to normal.

 

[DannyTS]

At the same time, big tech companies are moving in.

Facebook Bets Big on Future of N.Y.C., and Offices, With New Lease (Published 2020)

Despite the pandemic, the social media giant leased all the office space in the former main post office at Penn Station in Midtown.

www.nytimes.com

 

[TravelTime]

At the same time, big tech companies are moving in.

Facebook Bets Big on Future of N.Y.C., and Offices, With New Lease (Published 2020)

Despite the pandemic, the social media giant leased all the office space in the former main post office at Penn Station in Midtown.

www.nytimes.com

A lot of companies are expanding in NYC now. Amazon and Apple just expanded too. I suspect the WFH is short term and they will call employees back to the office. Otherwise, why are they expanding office space?

My employees want to go back to the office. The homes in the Bay Area are small and they do not have a separate space to work. The clients want to come back to the office too. I am the one saying no, not yet.

 

[jabberwocky]

Otherwise, why are they expanding office space?

Social distancing?

 

[TravelTime]

Social distancing?

If they are expanding for social distancing, then they will be calling employees back to work in the office.

 

[rickandcindy23]

To allow companies to send staff home? Way different economy.

 

[PigsDad]

This is going to be prolonged. Companies will not require people to come back to the office for a really long time. It is near impossible to socially distance in most office environments. In big metro areas with high rise buildings you can't cram people into elevators. In Manhattan, people aren't going to take the subway to work in droves like before. The liability for a company who mandates workers on site isn't worth the trouble. I see the short term issue going out approximately 3 years and by then the norm has changed.

I work for a fairly large (60K+ employees), global high tech company, and they have a three phase plan for reintroducing employees back to the office. 20%, 50% and 100%. We are currently not even in phase 1 yet, and their latest estimate is for phase 3 to be sometime next summer. They have also said that even after the offices are fully open, they will not force anyone to come back to the office if they wish to remain working from home.

Kurt

 

[Big Matt]

Office space and social distancing........can't put everyone in a bullpen. No more huddle rooms. Can't hold big presentations in theater like rooms with everyone crammed in. Plus, now everyone will have to wear masks. Many companies are investing in monitors that you have to wear to facilitate contact tracing. Sounds surreal.

One company I work with told me that they are now at 150 square feet per employee and need to get to 250 in order to socially distance. These are realities.

 

[Old Hickory]

This is going to be prolonged. Companies will not require people to come back to the office for a really long time. It is near impossible to socially distance in most office environments. In big metro areas with high rise buildings you can't cram people into elevators. In Manhattan, people aren't going to take the subway to work in droves like before. The liability for a company who mandates workers on site isn't worth the trouble. I see the short term issue going out approximately 3 years and by then the norm has changed.

3 years? I could see how some cities will never recover but it won't be due to the virus.

 

[Big Matt]

3 years? I could see how some cities will never recover but it won't be due to the virus.

Not sure what you are talking about. I never said anything about cities and econonomic recovery. My initial quote was in response to whether companies are going to require people to go back to the office. I think companies in services industries will be fine with mostly remote workers on a go forward basis.

Now if you want me to give you my take on commercial real estate and the values there, we can start another conversation. I think you know where my head is from my posts.

 

[TravelTime]

Not sure what you are talking about. I never said anything about cities and econonomic recovery. My initial quote was in response to whether companies are going to require people to go back to the office. I think companies in services industries will be fine with mostly remote workers on a go forward basis.

Now if you want me to give you my take on commercial real estate and the values there, we can start another conversation. I think you know where my head is from my posts.

I think it is going to be an uneven recovery. Winners and losers, as usual. It will take years if not forever for some individuals and businesses to recover while others are getting richer during Covid. I am in the lucky half.

 

[rickandcindy23]

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.

www.cdc.gov

Comorbidities
Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups. For data on comorbidities, Click here to download.

Bottomline: If a person is old or has underlying health problems, Covid can tip the scale against you. But if you are healthy and young, Covid deaths are rare. Just like pneumonia. If you get pneumonia and are obese or old, you are more likely to die of pneumonia (or flu, for that matter).

 

[MommaBear]

Too true, but with a mortality rate of 3.1% and a morbidity rate of 30% (morbidity indicating ongoing post infection complications, duration obviously unknown).. If 80% of Americans need to get the disease to obtain herd immunity and 3% of that 80% die, that's 8 million dead.

 

[DannyTS]

Too true, but with a mortality rate of 3.1% and a morbidity rate of 30% (morbidity indicating ongoing post infection complications, duration obviously unknown).. If 80% of Americans need to get the disease to obtain herd immunity and 3% of that 80% die, that's 8 million dead.

parts of the world that did not close down, did not make masks mandatory, kept schools and restaurants open show that the numbers you mentioned are way off. Sweden's deaths are virtually zero currently, this suggests they are close to herd immunity. The total number of deaths is not 247,000 but about 50 times lower

 

[Brett]

parts of the world that did not close down, did not make masks mandatory, kept schools and restaurants open show that the numbers you mentioned are way off. Sweden's deaths are virtually zero currently, this suggests they are close to herd immunity. The total number of deaths is not 247,000 but about 50 times lower

Sweden Shouldn’t Be America’s Pandemic Model
The Swedes aren’t close to reaching herd immunity. We need to continue to contain the virus spread.

Wall Street Journal August 30, 2020

https://www.wsj.com/articles/sweden-shouldnt-be-americas-pandemic-model-11598822005

 

[rickandcindy23]

I'm worried about the politicizing of our children's educations.

Yes, since my granddaughter in kindergarten hasn't been able to meet any of her classmates in person. She is such a social girl; meanwhile, my other granddaughter is in pre-K at a Lutheran school, and she is truly enjoying her preschool experience.